Rebuilding The Patriots For 2021 And Beyond

Jeff Howe gives his thoughts - the Athletic

My comments:
I'll add Fla. QB Kyle Trask to his list of QBs to draft. 6'5", 240. Drop back pocket presence++ with decent mobility. 2020 stats - 70% completion rate, 4125 yds, 11.6 AY/A, 43 TDs and only 5 ints. BB could trade back to around 20-25 and still get Trask while adding a late 2nd or early 3rd to boot.
WRs - Marvin Jones &/or Corey Davis would be perfect, thank you.
TE - Hunter Henry for sure. He'd help immensely.
Adding a TE & 2 WRs would do wonders for the offense.
LB - Lavonte David has been productive his entire career plus he can cover a back or a TE.
Of our own FAs, I'm not certain JMac will be back, at least not as a CB; maybe at S. I'd like to keep Byrd and James White.




By Jeff Howe Dec 28, 2020
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The best thing about 2020? There’s at least a sliver of hope it’ll turn to 2021.
That’s where the Patriots have set their focus, as the regular season will expire in a week and they can turn their attention toward the next phase of their rebuild.
So let’s do the same and make 10 bold predictions for the upcoming year. Due to the likelihood that many of these predictions won’t be worth the paper they’re printed on, this message will soon self-destruct. No receipts, please.

1. The Patriots will trade up to draft a quarterback and keep* Cam Newton​

Bill Belichick has publicly acknowledged the advantages of building a roster around a quarterback on a rookie contract, and there are four franchise-caliber talents who are projected top-10 picks.
Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence will likely be the No. 1 pick — too rich for the Patriots — and BYU’s Zach Wilson, Ohio State’s Justin Fields and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance will be gone shortly thereafter. It’ll most likely cost the Patriots at least a pair of first-round picks to get into range to select one of them.
That’s a price worth paying if there’s conviction behind their evaluation of the right quarterback, and the pace of their rebuild depends on it.
There’d be some value in keeping Newton on a short-money contract, especially if the Patriots boost the talent at tight end and wide receiver. If the Patriots trade up to draft a quarterback, they’re not going to want to also spend a significant chunk of cap space on a veteran, so keeping Newton would make some sense.
He’s good for the locker room and should be a solid mentor for a rookie. If the draft pick isn’t ready to start early in the season, Newton would be a serviceable placeholder.
(*I changed my mind three times while writing this section, could do so 10 more times depending how Jarrett Stidham is involved in the final two games and might do so hundreds more times prior to free agency.)

2. The Patriots will extend Stephon Gilmore’s contract and place a second-round tender on J.C. Jackson​

Gilmore is still playing at an extremely high level, but he’ll only earn $7.5 million in cash next season because the Patriots have accelerated future earnings to keep him competitively compensated over the past two seasons.
While Gilmore’s name has come up in trade conversations, the Patriots didn’t come close to dealing him because there was never an acceptable offer on the table, according to a source. The presumption is the Patriots wouldn’t move him for less than a first-round pick. Would their price actually come down in the next three months, and how much will the torn quad impact his fate?
Keeping Gilmore would therefore make the most sense. A two-year, $28.5 million extension would be fair value, rolling that into the balance of his current contract for a three-year, $36 million pact.
Jackson is a restricted free agent, and the Patriots would like to accumulate more picks, particularly under the premise that they’re willing to trade into the top 10 for a quarterback. The Patriots’ two options with Jackson would be to give him a first- or second-round tender, but it’s historically rare for an opposing team to sign away a restricted free agent at the cost of a first-round pick.
Therefore, use a second-round tender, and entice a team to sign Jackson to an offer sheet. That’s an affordable price for a corner with a budding reputation around the league, and the Patriots could use the second-round asset while replacing Jackson with Joejuan Williams or Myles Bryant. They could also re-sign Jason McCourty.

3. The Patriots’ two biggest splashes in free agency will be Hunter Henry and Lavonte David​

Henry will be the top tight end on the market, so he’ll require a contract worth an average annual value of at least $10 million. But Henry also probably got the memo this month that Belichick is infatuated with him.
The Patriots desperately need more production at tight end. Rookies Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene could still grow into solid pieces, but how long will it take? The Patriots can’t go a third consecutive year devoid of statistical output from the position, and Henry would be the answer.
David, a linebacker who turns 31 in January, has flown under the radar in Tampa but has been reliable and productive on all three downs throughout his career. If the Patriots can get him for $8-9 million annually, they can stick him in the middle of their defense with Dont’a Hightower and let Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings flourish alongside them.
The front seven would enjoy an immediate upgrade with David on the inside.

4. Josh Uche will become the Patriots’ top pass rusher​

This is an easy one.
Uche has made an impact with his increased role over the past month, and his trajectory should have a sharp ascension with a normal offseason. Chase Winovich has had a very good season as the Patriots’ best pass rusher, but Uche’s raw talent will shine once the Patriots remove his training wheels.

5. The Patriots will focus on the second tier of free-agent wide receivers​

It would be a surprise if the Patriots completely abandoned their philosophy on paying receivers just because they’ve got $60 million in projected cap space, the fourth-most in the NFL.
That’s why $14-18 million annually doesn’t add up for JuJu Smith-Schuster, Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay or Will Fuller. Rather, it’d make more sense to try to snare a pair of the next tier that includes Curtis Samuel, Marvin Jones, Sammy Watkins and Corey Davis.
If the Patriots can land two of them, somehow land one of the plethora of talented wideouts in the draft and combine them with Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers, the group would look much better.

6. The Patriots will re-sign Joe Thuney​

The Pats used the $14.8 million franchise tag on Thuney despite being tight against the cap because they hoped to extend him to a long-term contract. The two sides were never close to an extension before the deadline, nor were the Patriots close to trading him due to an absence of acceptable offers. They also weren’t going to just flip him to the highest bidder due to his value to the team, which played out tenfold as he hopped between left guard and center early in the season.
It’d be surprising if they didn’t continue to offer him a competitive contract. There are only 10 teams with at least $30 million in projected cap room, and it’s tough to envision most of them using a major chunk of it on an interior lineman. Maybe Washington or the Bengals makes a huge push, but Thuney would then have to decide between the fattest payday and an environment he knows best and is closer to achieving postseason success.
It’s unconventional for teams to devote so much cap space to guard, as Shaq Mason will carry a $9.775 million cap hit, but the Patriots can pull it off while their tackles are on rookie contracts.

1/2​

 
Here's what BB said on Dak back in Nov., 2019. It sounds reminiscent of what BB said about Hunter Henry this year.


Stats of Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson. Not much different.

I should clarify Dak's contract dispute with Jerrah. Dak wanted a short term, 3-4 year deal so he could enter FA while still in his prime at the time of the new TV deals kicking in. Jerrah wanted a long term deal, 6-7 years, to keep Dak during his prime at a reasonable rate as cap soared.

That report leaked by the Cowboys about Dak wanting $45M is true but that $45M was only for the 1st year as a trade off for Dak to accept the long term deal Jerrah wanted averaging $30-$35M/. (Dak doesn't trust Jerrah!?) Jerrah being a smart business man said no, I'll just franchise tag you and save $14M for 2020. Dak signed the tag that paid him $31.5M for 2020; he wasn't happy about it but realized it was a logical compromise being for only a year. Jerrah can FT Dak again for 2021 but the cost would be $37.5M. Dak could sign it again and he'd be getting the short deal he wanted all along.

But there's a problem with the 2nd FT that Smart Jerrah didn't fully realize a year ago ---> the lower salary cap bc of COVID. Suddenly Jerrah doesn't have the cap space to do it easily - he's $20M short. Yeah, he could re-structure contracts and let a valuable FA or 2 go but he'd further reduce a team in flux. As I said, screw Jerrah.
 
Here's what BB said on Dak back in Nov., 2019. It sounds reminiscent of what BB said about Hunter Henry this year.


Stats of Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson. Not much different.

I should clarify Dak's contract dispute with Jerrah. Dak wanted a short term, 3-4 year deal so he could enter FA while still in his prime at the time of the new TV deals kicking in. Jerrah wanted a long term deal, 6-7 years, to keep Dak during his prime at a reasonable rate as cap soared.

That report leaked by the Cowboys about Dak wanting $45M is true but that $45M was only for the 1st year as a trade off for Dak to accept the long term deal Jerrah wanted averaging $30-$35M/. (Dak doesn't trust Jerrah!?) Jerrah being a smart business man said no, I'll just franchise tag you and save $14M for 2020. Dak signed the tag that paid him $31.5M for 2020; he wasn't happy about it but realized it was a logical compromise being for only a year. Jerrah can FT Dak again for 2021 but the cost would be $37.5M. Dak could sign it again and he'd be getting the short deal he wanted all along.

But there's a problem with the 2nd FT that Smart Jerrah didn't fully realize a year ago ---> the lower salary cap bc of COVID. Suddenly Jerrah doesn't have the cap space to do it easily - he's $20M short. Yeah, he could re-structure contracts and let a valuable FA or 2 go but he'd further reduce a team in flux. As I said, screw Jerrah.
Terrific post
 
Finally someone agrees with me about Watson. I don't want to be another Denver or Buffalo or the NYJ going through QB after QB and waiting years and years to find one.
Under BB the Pats won't do badly enough to get a top 5 draft pick. I'm all for it and I'd pursue it doggedly. But I'm also realistic and the chances of it happening are slim but he's plan A for now. Plan B could be Dak - screw Jerrah. Everyone here assumes Dak wanted too much money but that wasn't it. He wanted a short contract so he could become a FA again in his prime. Jerrah wanted a long term deal. He and Jerrah couldn't reach agreement bc of years and not bc of money.
I agree 100%
 
Probably. Talking about a player on the team you're playing that week isn't considered tampering unless it's obvious. Same with those HHenry comments by BB.
 
What kind of QB does BB want? Brady light, dual threat mobility or someone to run a Kyle Shanahan QB friendly outside zone run based system.
Lazar's excellent article talks about it.

 
I doubt we ever find that again. What Brady was able to do was the perfect combo of skill, intelligence and humility as if the game plan called for 30 runs, he would hand off. If it called for dump offs and screens, he would do it all game. His will to want to win at any cost combined with Bill's fantastic game plans were the perfect match.
 
Which is why he was oh so happy all of 2019 when the pats went 12-4?he used to be like that. where he went tells me he's about "weaponz!1!1!1111!!" and easier situations now.
 
It was more a change of focus than a change of offense from Brady's pov. The Pats could run or pass and the game plan focused on weak links. Brady didn't change; the focus changed.
 

Listen? Oh, come on. We all knew last year and complained about it the entire season. It wasn't just Brady complaining although he was the most visible complainer and did himself no favors by showing his anger with the situation. He not only alienated fans he also alienated team mates and coaches.


I agree with Evan. I don't agree with your interpretation which gives all credit to Brady. I don't agree that it was Brady who changed the offense. It was the coaches' game plan that changed and Brady was simply able to execute it. He didn't suddenly become Lamar Jackson out there.
 
It was more a change of focus than a change of offense from Brady's pov. The Pats could run or pass and the game plan focused on weak links. Brady didn't change; the focus changed.
Yeah. His attitude change did not come out of the blue. The focus change was sig. on top of no contract extension. The writing was on the wall for him.
 
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