Has Brady Lost His Mojo?

I know this guy isn't a member of Our Team anymore, or if it's bad manners to discuss players on other teams (except for Random Football News), but our long lost QB has been playing like dog shit for the Bucs. He said he'd retire when he couldn't cut it anymore, but has said he doesn't plan to retire after this season. So whaddya think? Should he bow out now before he craps all over his legend, or is this year simply growing pains of moving to a new team/new coaches/new teammates/new playbook, etc. and he'll be back to playing great again next year? Opinions, please.
:patslogo26:
 
Brady has never had an issue with "pressure" any more than any other QB has. It's not rocket science. Put any QB under pressure and he will suffer. That's how you win games, the Rams did it to Wilson last night consistently. Of course, Brady has come under significant pressure before and the team typically lost, Rex Ryan's Jets were something very good at that, giving all kinds of different looks etc to confuse the offense. But it's the same for any QB. You want to beat the Chiefs? Pressure Mahomes. Same with the Ravens, Packers, Saints etc etc. It's why great pass rushers have such huge careers as they literally can change games.

The Rams will now rise and fall according to Aaron Donald's health, simple as that.
At least the Rams took out the trash... :coffee:
 
Oh Jesus Christ.

The defensive collapse this year had FAR more of an impact than Brady’s departure.


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LOL.

You mean offensive collapse. Defense ranked 7 in points allowed this year. We were 1 last year. A swing of just 6 spots.
The offensive went from 7 in points scored to 27. A swing of 20 spots.
 
So one thing that annoys me is when folks talk about QBs playing into their mid-40s being the "new normal", saying you'll see a "bunch of guys" who play to the age Brady is playing now in upcoming years. At a glance, their arguments seem grounded in reality, since they talk about folks taking better care of themselves, and also rules changes favoring the QBs. However to me it comes across as ignorant attempts to discredit the insanity of what Brady is currently doing.

So I looked - out of all the QBs drafted after Brady, how many of them are still playing? What is the average NFL career QB length looking like these days? We know Brady is playing next year, barring catastrophic injury, the league shutting down, or some other happenstance. But let's set aside that mark, how many QBs look like they'll play at 43, the mark Brady has currently hit?

Below is the list of QBs drafted after Brady, who have retired already:
Todd Husak, JaJuan Seider, Tim Rattay, Jarious Jackson, Joe Hamilton, Michael Vick, Quincy Carter, Marques Tuiasosopo, Chris Weinke, Sage Rosenfels, Jesse Palmer, Mike McMahon, A.J. Feeley, Josh Booty, Josh Heupel, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, David Garrard, Rohan Davey, Randy Fasani, Kurt Kittner, Brandon Doman, Craig Nall, J.T. O’Sullivan, Steve Bellisari, Seth Buford, Jeff Kelly, Wes Pate, Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, Dave Ragone, Chris Simms, Seneca Wallace, Brian St. Pierre, Drew Henson, Brooks Bollinger, Kliff Kingsbury, Gibran Hamdan, Ken Dorsey, Eli Manning, J.P. Losman, Luke McCown, Craig Krenzel, Andy Hall, Josh Harris, Jim Sorgi, Jeff Smoker, John Navarre, Cody Pickett, Casey Bramlet, Matt Mauck, B.J Symons, Bardlee Von Pelt, Jason Campbell, Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, David Greene, Kyle Orton, Stefan Lefors, Dan Orlovsky, Adrian McPherson, Derek Anderson, James Kilian, Matt Cassel, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle, Brad Smith, Ingle Martin, Omar Jacobs, Reggie McNeal, Bruce Gradkowski, D.J. Shockley, JaMarcus Russel, Brady Quinn, Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Trent Edwards, Isaiah Stanbeck, Jeff Rowe, Troy Smith, Jordan Palmer, Tyler Thigpen, Brian Brohm, Kevin O’Connel, John David Booty, Dennis Dixon, Eric Ainge, Colt Brennan, Andre Woodson, Matt Flynn, Alex Brink, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Pat White, Stephen McGee, Rhett Bomar, Nate Davis, Tom Brandstater, Mike Teel, Keith Null, Curtis Painter, Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Jimmy Clausen, Mike Kafka, John Skelton, Jonathan Crompton, Rusty Smith, Dan LeFevour, Tony Pike, Levi Brown, Sean Canfield, Zac Robinson, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Mallett, Ricky Stanzi, T.J. Yates, Nathan Enderle, Greg McElroy, Andrew Luck, Brandon Weeden, Brock Osweiler, Ryan Lindley, B.J. Coleman, Chandler Harnish, EJ Manuel, Ryan Nassib, Tyler Wilson, Brad Sorensen, Zac Dysert, B.J. Daniels, Sean Renfree, Johnny Manziel, Aaron Murray, Zach Mettenberger, Keith Wenning, Tajh Boyd, Garrett Grayson, Bryce Petty, Paxton Lynch, Christian Hackenberg, Connor Cook, Kevin Hogan, Brandon Doughty, Brad Kaava, Mike White, Tanner Lee

That is 150 that have retired to the 1 who has played until 43. Now mind you, this is all per Pro Football Reference, there may be errors in there, but it shouldn't be too far off I hope. Of course, when folks are talking about this, they're looking at the future, so let's try to forecast: Who are the 10 oldest QBs in the NFL not named Tom Brady, and how many of them look poised to reach 43?
Drew Brees - Done after this season, already has another job lined up, they're in cap hell, no way he hits it.
Josh McCown - He's 41, he would need to play 2 more years. He is under contract for 1 more, and could get an extension, but he's being looked at more for coaching positions than for extensions. Hasn't played a snap this season, unlikely to get there.
Philip Rivers - He's 39, he would need to play 4 more years. He's currently contemplating retirement, and will be for the next month. He may return next year, 4 more years seems unlikely.
Ben Roethlisberger - He's 38, but is already talking retirement. I feel like he comes back for 1 more year, but barring something crazy, he's definitely not making it.
Matt Schaub - I debated even including him on this list, as he has already announced he's retiring.
Alex Smith - He's 36, but also debating retirement. With injury and everything else, no one would blame him if he walked away. Maybe he comes back, but I can't see him making it to 43 regardless.
Aaron Rodgers - He's 37 and has expressed a desire to match whatever Brady does, and he's coming off a MVP caliber season. He has the best shot of anyone on this list so far of making it, but let's check back in 4 years and see how things stand, when he'll still need another 2 years to match what Brady's done, assuming Brady doesn't play after this year.
Ryan Fitzpatrick - He's 38, he hasn't expressed anything which would lead me to believe he'll retire soon, but neither has he expressed anything to make me believe he intends to play another 5 years. We shall see.
Drew Stanton - He's 36, and ironically backing up Tom Brady, making the Bucs by far the oldest QB room in the league. He's a backup but maybe he plays another 7 years. Odds are not on his side.
Matt Ryan - Yep he's the 9th oldest QB in the league. He also is not likely retiring within the next year or two, though there are already rumors swirling about the Falcons trading him or making some kind of move at QB. Regardless, unless something drastically changes and / or he decides to live the life of a journeyman backup, he's not making it to 43.
Joe Flacco - It's looking like he'll retire this offseason, at 36. However, even if he does not, after a herniated disc injury, he's not making it anywhere close to 43.

At 31, Cam Newton is the NFL's 15th oldest QB. The other 4 above him are Chad Henne, Josh Johnson, Matt Stafford, and Colt McCoy. So if there is indeed a "bunch of guys" who are going to do what Brady has done, the earliest we're likely to see that is 12 years from now. No QBs remain from the 2006 draft class, the year After Rodgers was drafted.

The average career of a NFL QB appears to be around 6 years. On average you have a couple of QBs per year who last more than 10 years, and you have maybe 1 QB per year who lasts more than 15. Maybe those numbers change and evolve over time. But the first QB drafted in 2012 and 2013 have already retired, as has the 2nd QB drafted in 2014. 5 of the 15 QBs drafted in 2016 are already gone. We shall see what time holds, but at least in the near future, what Brady is doing definitely does not seem likely to become "the new normal".
 
So one thing that annoys me is when folks talk about QBs playing into their mid-40s being the "new normal", saying you'll see a "bunch of guys" who play to the age Brady is playing now in upcoming years. At a glance, their arguments seem grounded in reality, since they talk about folks taking better care of themselves, and also rules changes favoring the QBs. However to me it comes across as ignorant attempts to discredit the insanity of what Brady is currently doing.

So I looked - out of all the QBs drafted after Brady, how many of them are still playing? What is the average NFL career QB length looking like these days? We know Brady is playing next year, barring catastrophic injury, the league shutting down, or some other happenstance. But let's set aside that mark, how many QBs look like they'll play at 43, the mark Brady has currently hit?
That is a great post, GO. A lot of work went into that, and I enjoyed reading it. I agree with all of your assessments.

Kudos to you for thinking of an original approach and then carrying it through.
 
media looking for
#hottakes
other thing is tb has done this with only 15 games total lost to injury. would be interesting to see games missed by other qbs due to that. especially counting as a % of total games played including playoffs.
there's nothing normal about it.
 
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