Week 2, 2020 - Patriots @Seattle
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Most of the west sucks ass as far as air quality...not fun.
Big/Sky/Fly
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Dwight Schrute
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That guy knows the analytics
---------- Post added at 07:01 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:59 AM ----------
Wildfire sediment is travelling the jetstream.
They are tracing it in Europe now.
Cam Newton’s second offensive snap with the Patriots the "Go Go" offense was more than a decade in the making. Malzahn used it years ago at Tulsa and then at Auburn for Cam's run for a national championship. But he's not the architect; that's Brennan Marion and it's way more than the usual RPO or triple option.
I think we may see more variations of it going forward. It's a tough offense to defend.
Football Outsiders has the back story on the "Go Go" offense. There's a lot to digest here with all the formations and videos that make it work:
https://ftw.usatoday.com/2020/09/gogo-offense-brennan-marion-hawaii-innovation-scheme-analysis
“People say [my] offense is a spread offense,” Marion said. “It’s not even close to the spread in my mind. It’s a pro-style, triple-option offense. That’s what we’re trying to do. A true West Coast passing game, a triple-option run game and with the up-tempo principles of Coach Malzahn.”
Jeff Howe also has an article about this offense on theAthletic today.
https://theathletic.com/2074349/2020/09/18/go-go-offense-patriots-cam-caylin-newton-brennan-marion/
Brennan Marion is the architect behind the play — part of his “Go Go” offense — which went down as a 10-yard quarterback run for Newton but meant so much more than that.
And as Marion can attest, the Patriots can do so much more with that concept if they choose to keep it in their rotation, which would make sense for a coordinator as creative as Josh McDaniels.
“Seeing that formation is always good because that was something where obviously I got my name in coaching,” said Marion, now the wide receivers coach at Hawaii. “So it was really cool to see them use him in a way that made him successful. That’s obviously what made Cam Newton a star back at Auburn and obviously with the Panthers when he was healthy. It’s cool to see coach (Bill) Belichick adapt and adjust. That’s what makes him the best.”
On second-and-4, Newton lined up in the shotgun with Rex Burkhead to his left and James White behind left tackle Isaiah Wynn. White motioned right, which drew Dolphins cornerback Jamal Perry with him, and Newton took the snap with a read-option concept with Burkhead. Newton faked the handoff to Burkhead — causing linebacker Kyle Van Noy to follow the running back — then tucked the ball for a keeper up the middle. Newton moved the chains behind his offensive line’s solid blocking, but Van Noy’s quick recovery actually prevented an even greater gain as he slowed Newton from a one-on-one situation against Dolphins safety Bobby McCain.
It was the only time the Patriots used that formation — Newton in the shotgun with two running backs next to each other — but Marion developed an entire offensive system out of the concept. It’s barely reached the NCAA FBS or the NFL, so an innovative team could deploy Marion’s design to yield an immense headache for opposing defenses, not unlike the league’s slow recovery when faced with the wildcat formation in the late 2000s.
Marion’s “Go Go” offense essentially creates a triple-option scenario with a twist, so it puts the defense in a spot where it has to diagnose the play, correctly communicate assignments and react quickly enough to execute — all before the offense gains a full head of steam.
“It’s a three-headed monster, so both running backs in the backfield can get the football and the quarterback can run the ball,” Marion said. “So you can turn every play into a triple-option play … because you can give the ball to one back or you can pitch the ball to the other back or the quarterback can run the ball. That’s the thing that makes it unique and different from everybody else.
https://theathletic.com/2074349/2020/09/18/go-go-offense-patriots-cam-caylin-newton-brennan-marion/
I think we may see more variations of it going forward. It's a tough offense to defend.
Football Outsiders has the back story on the "Go Go" offense. There's a lot to digest here with all the formations and videos that make it work:
https://ftw.usatoday.com/2020/09/gogo-offense-brennan-marion-hawaii-innovation-scheme-analysis
“People say [my] offense is a spread offense,” Marion said. “It’s not even close to the spread in my mind. It’s a pro-style, triple-option offense. That’s what we’re trying to do. A true West Coast passing game, a triple-option run game and with the up-tempo principles of Coach Malzahn.”
Jeff Howe also has an article about this offense on theAthletic today.
https://theathletic.com/2074349/2020/09/18/go-go-offense-patriots-cam-caylin-newton-brennan-marion/
Brennan Marion is the architect behind the play — part of his “Go Go” offense — which went down as a 10-yard quarterback run for Newton but meant so much more than that.
And as Marion can attest, the Patriots can do so much more with that concept if they choose to keep it in their rotation, which would make sense for a coordinator as creative as Josh McDaniels.
“Seeing that formation is always good because that was something where obviously I got my name in coaching,” said Marion, now the wide receivers coach at Hawaii. “So it was really cool to see them use him in a way that made him successful. That’s obviously what made Cam Newton a star back at Auburn and obviously with the Panthers when he was healthy. It’s cool to see coach (Bill) Belichick adapt and adjust. That’s what makes him the best.”
On second-and-4, Newton lined up in the shotgun with Rex Burkhead to his left and James White behind left tackle Isaiah Wynn. White motioned right, which drew Dolphins cornerback Jamal Perry with him, and Newton took the snap with a read-option concept with Burkhead. Newton faked the handoff to Burkhead — causing linebacker Kyle Van Noy to follow the running back — then tucked the ball for a keeper up the middle. Newton moved the chains behind his offensive line’s solid blocking, but Van Noy’s quick recovery actually prevented an even greater gain as he slowed Newton from a one-on-one situation against Dolphins safety Bobby McCain.
It was the only time the Patriots used that formation — Newton in the shotgun with two running backs next to each other — but Marion developed an entire offensive system out of the concept. It’s barely reached the NCAA FBS or the NFL, so an innovative team could deploy Marion’s design to yield an immense headache for opposing defenses, not unlike the league’s slow recovery when faced with the wildcat formation in the late 2000s.
Marion’s “Go Go” offense essentially creates a triple-option scenario with a twist, so it puts the defense in a spot where it has to diagnose the play, correctly communicate assignments and react quickly enough to execute — all before the offense gains a full head of steam.
“It’s a three-headed monster, so both running backs in the backfield can get the football and the quarterback can run the ball,” Marion said. “So you can turn every play into a triple-option play … because you can give the ball to one back or you can pitch the ball to the other back or the quarterback can run the ball. That’s the thing that makes it unique and different from everybody else.
https://theathletic.com/2074349/2020/09/18/go-go-offense-patriots-cam-caylin-newton-brennan-marion/
Evan Lazar's key match ups for the game
KEY MATCHUPS
1. Jonathan Jones vs. Tyler Lockett: expect a speed-on-speed matchup in the slot between Jones and Lockett. Jones does a great job tracking Hill in their matchups with Kansas City, and although Lockett isn’t the same exact player, it’s similar enough. We’ll see how much help Jones has inside on things like deep overs.
2. Stephon Gilmore vs. D.K. Metcalf: the Pats might not put Gilmore on Metcalf the entire game as Metcalf usually plays on one side of the formation and doesn’t move around much. But Metcalf’s size and explosiveness is a difficult matchup, and with Lockett as an inside receiver, it makes sense for the Pats to deploy Gilmore on D.K. rather than a third receiver like David Moore. If Gilmore can disrupt Metcalf at the line with his excellent press technique, it’ll prevent him from getting up the field with ease as he did on his touchdown last week.
3. Pats Interior OL vs. Bobby Wagner: the key against a player like Wagner is to give him different looks and avoid tipping your pitches. He’s an extremely intelligent player, so the Pats will need to confuse him with misdirection and false keys. If you give him something he recognizes, he’ll blow it up before the play even has a chance.
4. Adam Butler vs. Seattle Interior OL: the Seahawks always seem to be thin along the offensive line, and their starting interior trio struggled against the Falcons. Right guard Damien Lewis is a rookie playing in just his second NFL game, while left guard Mike Iupati is a veteran nearing the end, and center Ethan Pocic has the lowest PFF grade of any starting center since 2017. The Pats might need to contain their rushes on the edges to keep Wilson in the pocket, but Butler should get some pass-rush chances on the interior. He can take these guys to school.
5. N’Keal Harry vs. Seattle’s Outside CBs: Seattle tends to play sides in their zone coverages rather than matching their corners as shadows on particular receivers. Whether it’s Quinton Dunbar or Shaquill Griffin, Harry has a favorable matchup. If there was ever a time for him to break out, it’s Sunday night. This Seahawks secondary is vulnerable.
https://www.clnsmedia.com/patriots-game-plan-how-to-contain-russell-wilson-does-cam-keep-running/
KEY MATCHUPS
1. Jonathan Jones vs. Tyler Lockett: expect a speed-on-speed matchup in the slot between Jones and Lockett. Jones does a great job tracking Hill in their matchups with Kansas City, and although Lockett isn’t the same exact player, it’s similar enough. We’ll see how much help Jones has inside on things like deep overs.
2. Stephon Gilmore vs. D.K. Metcalf: the Pats might not put Gilmore on Metcalf the entire game as Metcalf usually plays on one side of the formation and doesn’t move around much. But Metcalf’s size and explosiveness is a difficult matchup, and with Lockett as an inside receiver, it makes sense for the Pats to deploy Gilmore on D.K. rather than a third receiver like David Moore. If Gilmore can disrupt Metcalf at the line with his excellent press technique, it’ll prevent him from getting up the field with ease as he did on his touchdown last week.
3. Pats Interior OL vs. Bobby Wagner: the key against a player like Wagner is to give him different looks and avoid tipping your pitches. He’s an extremely intelligent player, so the Pats will need to confuse him with misdirection and false keys. If you give him something he recognizes, he’ll blow it up before the play even has a chance.
4. Adam Butler vs. Seattle Interior OL: the Seahawks always seem to be thin along the offensive line, and their starting interior trio struggled against the Falcons. Right guard Damien Lewis is a rookie playing in just his second NFL game, while left guard Mike Iupati is a veteran nearing the end, and center Ethan Pocic has the lowest PFF grade of any starting center since 2017. The Pats might need to contain their rushes on the edges to keep Wilson in the pocket, but Butler should get some pass-rush chances on the interior. He can take these guys to school.
5. N’Keal Harry vs. Seattle’s Outside CBs: Seattle tends to play sides in their zone coverages rather than matching their corners as shadows on particular receivers. Whether it’s Quinton Dunbar or Shaquill Griffin, Harry has a favorable matchup. If there was ever a time for him to break out, it’s Sunday night. This Seahawks secondary is vulnerable.
https://www.clnsmedia.com/patriots-game-plan-how-to-contain-russell-wilson-does-cam-keep-running/
Against Seattle, I expect to see more off coverage from Gilmore and JC Jackson because that coverage lets them watch the QB and make plays on the ball. Ints may be really big vs Seattle.
Hawg73
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If there is one guy not on our team that deserves props it's Wagner.
He was great for years and didn't get much in the way of props, but if we can keep him contained then I'll be very impressed with our OL.
I think we have a chance to be really, really good and nobody in the NFL is harder to block than that guy.
The Seahawks are a good team led by a couple of dominating players, but like anybody else then have weaknesses we can try to exploit and, I believe, some problem position groups, notably their OL.
If I was going to add a key matchup it'd be Russell Wilson versus our LB corps. He's great on the move and is expert at influencing defenders and while some of our guys are experienced, they haven't played together as a unit enough to get in synch. Try to keep him from escaping the middle of the field with disciplined Edge play, don't rush past him and don't bite on the arm pumps. All easier said than done.
PatriotInIndy
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Exactly! This is why he has Ernie. He's just saying that so other teams don't use it more.
And Caserio. And an entire department. BB won't talk about it for competitive reasons but the Pats are invested in analytics and have been for years. The Eagles are credited for the analytics movement in the mid-'90s when they had a foot in but Kraft set up an analytics dept right after he bought the team. His was initially for business models for income generation & process improvement but within a few years their attention turned to the football players and, voila!, RBBC became a thing.
RBBC is a model of analytics and how long has BB been doing that?
http://www.patriotsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=68253&highlight=Analytics
[The Ravens have heavily invested in analytics in recent years. The Browns, too, but they may need help interpreting what they see. ]
Trading back is another example of simple economic analytics and nobody has done that as much or better than BB, no doubt with Ernie's help.
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/12/19/18148153/nfl-analytics-revolution
ESPN ranks the best analytics depts in the NFL - problem is the Pats are so top secret they don't know where to put them.
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12331388/the-great-analytics-rankings
"One NFL analytics professional called the Patriots a "big black hole" when it comes to revealing any secrets, which of course applies to most everything they do under coach Bill Belichick. But some evidence of the implementation of analytics has escaped the Patriots' gravitational field, and it suggests that the Patriots are one of the most innovative teams in the NFL.
Owner Robert Kraft worked with a former colleague in the 1990s to create statistical models for player valuation. And for the past 15 years, Belichick has relied heavily on his football research director, Ernie Adams, a former Wall Street trader who collaborates with the coach to develop a variety of cutting-edge approaches to team building and game play.
Belichick recently told The Boston Globe: "Ernie's really a great sounding board for me personally and other members of our staff. Particularly coaching staff. Strategy, rules, decisions. Ernie's very, very smart.''
One major strategy employed by the Patriots has been an arbitrage system in personnel, whether multiplying draft picks via draft day trades or moving their veteran players (such as defensive tackle Richard Seymour in 2009, receiver Randy Moss in 2010 and offensive lineman Logan Mankins in 2014) before they lose value. Based in part on such moves, the Patriots have had unmatched success in the Belichick era, with four Super Bowl rings and counting.
On the field, Belichick's approach appears less consistent. His failed fourth-down gambit against the Colts in 2009 was decried by fans but cheered by analysts who recommend that teams play more aggressively. But in other cases, he has coached rather conservatively, defying his reputation.
Regardless, there is little doubt that the Patriots invest time and energy looking for every edge, and their commitment to ruthlessly outsmarting the competition is a Belichick trademark."
Other examples of analytics are everywhere - Football Outsiders with its DVOA, DYAR, Expected Points Above Replacement - and the list goes on and on. From my pov, if you can measure something, you can make it better, and that's analytics in a nutshell.
Here's a thread I started on Analytics and its application a couple of years ago.
http://www.patriotsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=75450&highlight=Analytics
king of kings
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I want to see the passing game get more involved .. You saw power running game & misdirection last week. The passing was efficient but very limited . Only 3 players caught more then 1 catch .
Hawg73
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Yeah, Bill was being disingenuous there. He definitely studies stats, but I'm sure he makes a judgement prior to doing so as to which are actually pertinent and which are a waste of time.
4th and 2 against Indy will be one that sticks in all of our collective craws, but over the years you can see the tendency to go for it on 4th is far greater than it used to be and that isn't just Bill playing hunches.
I was almost disappointed in him for lying there, but there are plenty of honest coaches who are now working at Dick's Sporting Goods.
4th and 2 against Indy will be one that sticks in all of our collective craws, but over the years you can see the tendency to go for it on 4th is far greater than it used to be and that isn't just Bill playing hunches.
I was almost disappointed in him for lying there, but there are plenty of honest coaches who are now working at Dick's Sporting Goods.
Patriots71
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Seattle is not exactly the legion of boom in the secondary anymore, so this would be the game to do that.
OP
OP
Roberto71
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Jesus, James White's dad has been killed in a car crash. His mom was also in the car and is in a critical condition. His dad was a Captain with the Miami Police.
What a horrible week for the Patriots. James is obviously inactive for the game tonight.
What a horrible week for the Patriots. James is obviously inactive for the game tonight.
Steve1
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That's awful. That's going to be very tough on James and the team. And his Mom. God Bless James White.
Poor James White. Prayers for him and his family.
Whoo hoo! McCourty!
Hell yes!
