2019 Draft - WR Prospects The Patriots Way

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I'll start with a brief ranking of these WRs from a Patriots perspective.

Later on things may change as we hear about injuries, character concerns, interviews, smarts, etc. My ranking will not necessarily agree with the general rankings bc I'm drafting specifically for the Patriots. Minimum physical requirements will probably knock some of these out when Pro Days are finished. This isn't a finished list.

1. Hakeem Butler, Iowa State, 6'5", 227. 4.48 40, 3c NA, VJ 36".
He's a primary weapon no matter where he's lined up. He's as close to
Calvin Johnson as we've seen and he's being trained by Calvin Johnson.
Butler is best WR1 in this draft imo.

2. Miles Boykin, NDame, 6'4", 220. 4.42 40, 6.77 3 cone, VJ 43.5".
Boykin was the wonder of the combine & he has the talent and athleticism to be a great WR1 at flanker or X. Under rated on most rankings.

3. AJ Brown, Miss., 6', 226. 4.49 40, VJ 36.5".
Brown is a thick, durable, strong player known for his slot work but he can do just as much damage at
flanker or even outside. Brown may be the safest WR in this draft. WR1 at slot or flanker.

4. Brain fart.

5. DK Metcalf, Miss, 6'3", 228. 4.33 40, 7.38 3c, 40.5 VJ.
Metcalf wins on go routes and jump balls and that's good enough for a lot of teams. He drops for the Pats bc
he is far from a complete WR even though he's a beast as a deep threat and in the RZ.

6. Deebo Samuel, S.Carolina, 5'11", 214. 4.48 40, 6.83 3c, VJ NA.
Samuel will kill opponents with a quick strike or 1000 paper cuts. ++ quicks and he's gone.
All 3 WR positions and RB. Name it and he'll win wherever he's put.

7. N'Keal Harry, Az St., 6'2", 228. 4.53 40, 3c NA, 38.5 VJ.Harry is a big, strong (27 BP) slot WR who may earn X duties bc of his
toughness and high pointing skill. Right now he's a big slot guy with a
potential for outside fades and RZ catches. WR2 upside.

8. Stanley Morgan, Jr., Nebraska, 6', 202. 4.53 40, 6.78 3c, VJ NA.
Morgan is a physical, quick and sure-handed flanker or slot guy who has ++ possession skill.
He reminds me a little of Malcolm Mitchell on the field with a little more physicality than MM.
I'm surprised to rank him this high but he's another one I could see as a Patriot. Slot or Flanker possession guy.

9. Parris Campbell, OSU, 6', 205. 4.31 40, 3c NA, 40" VJ.
Explosive, big play slot guy who is a threat on the field. He needs refinements in his game but his
fundamentals are solid. He should develop quickly to be a star focal point if he wants to be.
Lots to work with here.

10. Kelvin Harmon, NC St., 6'2", 221. 4.6 40, 7.15 3c, 32.5" VJ.
Harmon's lack of athleticism will eventually drop him from Patriots' consideration. He's a physical possession guy from the flanker position who lacks speed for the X position. He'd benefit by being on a run first team with a surprise pass thrown in.

More to come probably by Thursday.
I'll have some TE thoughts, too.
 
:tmack:

:archive:


4. DJ Moore from Maryland was drafted in the 1st round last season by Carolina.

View attachment 102716


Oops. Deleted. Notes getting mixed up last year and this year when I dropped my files. Good catch that I should have caught but I was in a hurry.
 
Butler is a stud. I think he’ll go early 20s. Baltimore likely.

I like Brown, Deebo, Harry, and 2 you left off in Isabella and JJAW.
 
Boykin is sneaky good and under rated.
Stanley Morgan is a solid WR, too.



Check em out.



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Nice. I was a little surprised to see Hakeem Butler ranked 1st on your list as a lot of people seem to have doubts whether he can get open against NFL DBs, but from what I've seen he can be productive whether he's covered or not.

It would be really refreshing to see such a huge guy playing for the Pats given Brady's tendency to go for the back-shoulder and possession sort of throws-- it strikes me that Butler would seem to have a perfect skill set for Tom. Physically, anyway, and the mental side of it we'd just have to hope for the best.

It's a long way around him for defensive backs and he seems to have a natural fluidity and balance for such a big dude.

I'd be excited to get any of those guys and hope we'll make a solid investment in the position in a few weeks. God knows we need some young talent on the wings.
 
Oops. Deleted. Notes getting mixed up last year and this year when I dropped my files. Good catch that I should have caught but I was in a hurry.

DJ Moore was my fav last year. Plays like Steve Smith Sr. Love the kid.

BTW...

https://www.profootballweekly.com/lists/2019/03/20/07702569/index.xml?page=6

6. Andy Isabella, UMass – 47.5 Percent of Team’s Yardage Share

A popular phrase that is uttered during the draft process is "market share" in regards to receivers. To make things simple, market share is the percentage of the passing offense a receiver is responsible for. In college, the "magic" number most are looking for is at least 20 percent, with the top prospects reaching 30 percent. Last season, D.J. Moore, who was the first receiver drafted, led the nation with a market share of 51.7 percent of Maryland's offense.

In 2018, it was University of Massachusetts receiver Andy Isabella leading all receivers in yardage share at 47.5 percent as he caught 102 balls for 1,698 yards. According to PlayerProfiler, Isabella accounted for 52.2 percent of UMass’s passing offense, good enough to be in the 97th percentile of all receivers since 2000. Isabella won't be as highly regarded as Moore, but he is an outstanding prospect who has the production and athleticism to be a dynamic receiver in the NFL. Drafting Isabella any time on Day 2 would be a steal.
 
DJ Moore was my fav last year. Plays like Steve Smith Sr. Love the kid.

BTW...

https://www.profootballweekly.com/lists/2019/03/20/07702569/index.xml?page=6

6. Andy Isabella, UMass – 47.5 Percent of Team’s Yardage Share

A popular phrase that is uttered during the draft process is "market share" in regards to receivers. To make things simple, market share is the percentage of the passing offense a receiver is responsible for. In college, the "magic" number most are looking for is at least 20 percent, with the top prospects reaching 30 percent. Last season, D.J. Moore, who was the first receiver drafted, led the nation with a market share of 51.7 percent of Maryland's offense.

In 2018, it was University of Massachusetts receiver Andy Isabella leading all receivers in yardage share at 47.5 percent as he caught 102 balls for 1,698 yards. According to PlayerProfiler, Isabella accounted for 52.2 percent of UMass’s passing offense, good enough to be in the 97th percentile of all receivers since 2000. Isabella won't be as highly regarded as Moore, but he is an outstanding prospect who has the production and athleticism to be a dynamic receiver in the NFL. Drafting Isabella any time on Day 2 would be a steal.


He's a player without question. I'm concerned about him moving to slot, that's all. He'll show up later in my list.


In that Profootballweekly article I was interested in what they said about Kelvin Harmon which is exactly my take on him as expressed above - "He'd benefit by being on a run first team with a surprise pass thrown in".

Harbaugh's Ravens, for example.

He is no where close to Michael Thomas though.




10. Kelvin Harmon, North Carolina State – 17.4 yards per reception on 1<sup>st</sup> down
Kelvin Harmon of North Carolina State is one of the most well-rounded receivers in the class. You won't find many flaws in his game. He might lack any single "elite" trait, but what Harmon does so well is create chunk plays on early downs. In 2018, Harmon averaged an incredible 17.4 yards per reception on 1<sup>st</sup> down, the most in all of college football. Harmon has some Michael Thomas in his game, and his efficiency per target in college is quite similar. Expect Harmon to be a top-50 selection and instantly make an impact as a WR2.
 
For that much physical skill I’d think production should be higher.


I understand Isabella had 40+% of UMass's receiving yards and he's your guy but what was UMass ranked nationally? Who else did UMass have to throw to? Boykin had 26% of Notre Dame's receiving yards. ND was 12-1 and ranked 3rd nationally last year. Boykin was also MVP of ND's bowl game against LSU. Brian Kelly played Wimbush too much at QB before realizing Book was the better guy. ND had Senior WR Chris Finke, Junior WR Chase Claypool, Senior TE Alize Mack to utilize & we know how Brian Kelly likes to spread the ball around. When push came to shove, as with Isabella, Boykin was the guy in clutch moments against superior competition.

UMass went 4-8 and lost to the likes of Coastal (who?) and had lopsided losses to 6 teams. They were in perpetual catch up mode, ergo, throw, throw a lot and throw to your best receiver. Isabella benefited greatly.

Isabella can play and I'm certain if BB drafts him McD will find a way to use him. He could be the punt return guy right away. He's the energizer bunny on the field and he plays smart. There's a lot to like about him, I agree. His short area quickness and speed is amazing. But he also has weaknesses. He's small, he's a body catcher, he has a very small catch radius, he can be shoved easily off his route, he played against inferior competition and he'll have to change positions in the NFL. Those are real and worrisome. To me, comparisons to Tyreek Hill or Brandin Cooks get lost in translation. Might BB draft him? Maybe, but not til later than some other team will.
 
What stands most out to me is Boykins blocking. He's very aggressive, looks for a target to block and can bully defensive backs. As a receiver, he seems to struggle to create separation consistently. A guy with his numbers should be able to create more space which suggests to me that he's not really advanced in the nuances of the game. Cuts don't look sharpe, seems to run routes at one speed, no fakes or jukes to throw defensive backs off.
 
I understand Isabella had 40+% of UMass's receiving yards and he's your guy but what was UMass ranked nationally? Who else did UMass have to throw to? Boykin had 26% of Notre Dame's receiving yards. ND was 12-1 and ranked 3rd nationally last year. Boykin was also MVP of ND's bowl game against LSU. Brian Kelly played Wimbush too much at QB before realizing Book was the better guy. ND had Senior WR Chris Finke, Junior WR Chase Claypool, Senior TE Alize Mack to utilize & we know how Brian Kelly likes to spread the ball around. When push came to shove, as with Isabella, Boykin was the guy in clutch moments against superior competition.

UMass went 4-8 and lost to the likes of Coastal (who?) and had lopsided losses to 6 teams. They were in perpetual catch up mode, ergo, throw, throw a lot and throw to your best receiver. Isabella benefited greatly.

Isabella can play and I'm certain if BB drafts him McD will find a way to use him. He could be the punt return guy right away. He's the energizer bunny on the field and he plays smart. There's a lot to like about him, I agree. His short area quickness and speed is amazing. But he also has weaknesses. He's small, he's a body catcher, he has a very small catch radius, he can be shoved easily off his route, he played against inferior competition and he'll have to change positions in the NFL. Those are real and worrisome. To me, comparisons to Tyreek Hill or Brandin Cooks get lost in translation. Might BB draft him? Maybe, but not til later than some other team will.

Easy tiger.

Just stating a thought off physical metrics to actual production. As Def elaborated, just maybe he’s a bit more exceptional athlete than football player.

BTW, Regarding Isabella:

USF 13 rec 191yds 1 TD
Georgia 15 rec 219yds 2TD

He gets tagged as a body catcher by some. Don’t see it. Just went back to the 2019 Prospects thread and the clip Hawg posted. I don’t see a single body catch. I’ve watched other clips too. What he does have is Welker type arms. But he hand catches and pulls it to the body - a short distance due to lack of length - extremely quick.
 
What stands most out to me is Boykins blocking. He's very aggressive, looks for a target to block and can bully defensive backs. As a receiver, he seems to struggle to create separation consistently. A guy with his numbers should be able to create more space which suggests to me that he's not really advanced in the nuances of the game. Cuts don't look sharpe, seems to run routes at one speed, no fakes or jukes to throw defensive backs off.

I tend to agree. He looks great on paper, but I was underwhelmed watching him play.

Another thing that stood out to me watching Boykins is that I saw him get knocked to the ground without much of a fight a number of times. For a guy as big and athletic as he is I'd be concerned about his want-to. I was excited about Aaron Dobson early on until I understood that he was too soft and tried to win with finesse. I initially just saw his size but he played a lot smaller than he should have and didn't relish contact.

Case in point. Edelman is around 5'10" and has broken hundreds of tackles in his career. He does it routinely through sheer will and desire. I'm not saying he loves all the contact, I'm say he is willing to do whatever he's got to do to get to the sticks. You punch Julian in the face and his expression wouldn't change. I'm not seeing that sort of fire in Boykin where he should be able to challenge tacklers and fight his way free more. I think he could get abused by NFL DBs.
 
I've been watching JJ Arcega-Whiteside closely for years now. That kid would be awesome in a flying Elvis. Former basketball player, great hands, one of the best athletes you'll see on the field at any point in time. I may be a little biased towards Stanford guys but this kid is a dawg.
 
I've been watching JJ Arcega-Whiteside closely for years now. That kid would be awesome in a flying Elvis. Former basketball player, great hands, one of the best athletes you'll see on the field at any point in time. I may be a little biased towards Stanford guys but this kid is a dawg.

I like him a lot too OZO. Plus in mocks he’s consistently available in the 3rd
 
I've been watching JJ Arcega-Whiteside closely for years now. That kid would be awesome in a flying Elvis. Former basketball player, great hands, one of the best athletes you'll see on the field at any point in time. I may be a little biased towards Stanford guys but this kid is a dawg.

I like him a lot too OZO. Plus in mocks he’s consistently available in the 3rd


I like him & he, along with Isabella, is coming up on my next list tomorrow.
 
We've read a lot of hype about D.K. Metcalf’s NFL Combine performance, but Boykin’s overall workout was far more impressive. Just as Metcalf’s subpar performances in drills show up on the field with specific routes and coverage situations, Boykin’s explosive athletic ability shows up in his drills and his routes during games. If he played with an elite college quarterback, Boykin’s production would have better.

HButler is gifted with height, quickness, and mobility. He can drop his weight into hard breaks with the mobility of a slot receiver and a properly run whip route requires excellent mobility to drop and flip the hips. Executing the whip route well is a sign of his elite athletic ability because the route is normally reserved for only smaller slot receivers. Butler's versatility to play all 3 positions - Slot, Flanker and X - is something BB & McD should appreciate.
Butler isn't just my highest ranked WR for the Patriots, he's also my highest ranked WR in this class.
 
We've read a lot of hype about D.K. Metcalf’s NFL Combine performance, but Boykin’s overall workout was far more impressive. Just as Metcalf’s subpar performances in drills show up on the field with specific routes and coverage situations, Boykin’s explosive athletic ability shows up in his drills and his routes during games. If he played with an elite college quarterback, Boykin’s production would have better.

HButler is gifted with height, quickness, and mobility. He can drop his weight into hard breaks with the mobility of a slot receiver and a properly run whip route requires excellent mobility to drop and flip the hips. Executing the whip route well is a sign of his elite athletic ability because the route is normally reserved for only smaller slot receivers. Butler's versatility to play all 3 positions - Slot, Flanker and X - is something BB & McD should appreciate.
Butler isn't just my highest ranked WR for the Patriots, he's also my highest ranked WR in this class.

Add his 10 5/8s mitts, his battle for 50/50s, and his propensity for just ragdolling smaller DBs and he’s been my fav even before the Combine.
 
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