Wes Welker
Lots of people have been pointing out the low number of snaps that Wes Welker played in the New England opener and asking whether it means he is being phased out as his contract issue drags on. Welker has been a fantastic servant to the Patriots, but can they afford to pay him big money especially when they seem to have a readymade replacement in Julian Edelman waiting in the wings?
Including penalties, the Patriots ran 67 plays on offense against Tennessee. Wes Welker played 42 of them, or 63%. That seems like a worryingly low figure, but we need to dig deeper to understand what it really means. Start by ignoring five of those snaps because they came on the final drive with the Patriots chewing clock. Some starters were still out there, but guys like Matt Slater and Brandon Bolden were getting snaps on that drive, so it isn’t a reflection of Welker. Ignoring those snaps actually increases the percentage of meaningful snaps Welker played to 68%.
Josh McDaniels claimed that Welker’s snap total is explained simply by a game-specific plan for the Titans that didn’t call for him to be on the field for some plays, and to an extent that seems legitimate. Nine of the snaps Welker missed were in heavy formations that featured two or more tight ends and an extra blocker, but just a single receiver. Welker is far from the traditional split end, and wouldn’t be expected to be the primary receiver in these formations, and only once was Edelman preferred to Welker in this type of single-wide set.
In formations that featured multiple receivers, there were 11 snaps in which Welker was not on the field but Edelman was, with four of them coming in one drive in which the Patriots were in hurry-up mode in the first quarter. Indeed, if you look at the snaps that Welker missed because Edelman was preferred to him it works out at 16% of offensive snaps. Welker averaged 11% of snaps off the field in 2011, and well over 20% in both 2009 and 2010. Edelman might be the player picking up the snaps that Welker is spending off the field, but there is nothing to suggest that spending those snaps off the field is unusual for him.
The bottom line is that the number being thrown around might look alarming but it is not out of place over Welker’s time in New England, and I wouldn’t expect to see him marginalized in that offense.