And then there were 4

Of Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Aaron Rodgers, how many retire before Tom Brady does?

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deec77

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You mentioned Montana in your post. Steve Young did win a SB (was SB MVP with 6 TDs passes, a SB record) and was also league MVP twice. The end of his career was far better than the beginning.
Youre right I meant Montana not Young I fixed it thanks for the correction

~Dee~
 
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Giant Octopodes

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I would argue the opposite actually. Super Bowls are irrelevant right now in terms of Brady's legacy and age. He's won enough and given his age, no one is going hold anything against him if he does not win anymore. But what he can do is reach some unbelievable legacy records if he does play 3-4 years that would put him in Wayne Gretsky territory or maybe surpass Wayne given football is so much harder to play than hockey for the long haul.

264 wins (regular/postseason). Manning in second with 200. 36 more wins and Brady reaches 300. He’d need to play in 2023, at age 46. I’d say it’s 50/50 at worst, as I suspect he’ll play as long as Tampa is primed. This may be the most unchallengeable record in professional sports…winning at an outlier winning pct while playing an outlier number of seasons.

91,653 passing yards (regular/postseason). He needs 8,347 passing yards to reach 100,000. There’s a decent chance he would reach that in 2022. Regular season is 79,204, so he‘ll probably fall short there.

664 touchdown passes (regular/postseason). Can he throw more TDs than any baseball players has career home runs? He needs 763…99 to go. He would need to play in 2023 and average 33 TD passes per year, over the new 17 game regular season plus postseason.

83 postseason touchdown passes (90 total if you include rushing TDs). 100 postseason touchdowns is a possibility, though the variable of how many playoff games he’ll have is a wide range.
For me, this is what going out on a whimper would look like:
2021: 10-7 with a wildcard berth, they lose in the wildcard round in a close game.
2022: Early-ish in the season, (say after a 2-1 start) Brady gets injured, the Bucs do not make the playoffs.
2023: Brady comes back, leads them to a 8-9 record which somehow sneaks into the playoffs, they lose in the playoffs badly, off Brady throwing multiple picks.
2024: The Bucs go 5-12, Brady looks thoroughly washed. We hear all offseason how he was playing through injuries all year.
2025: The Bucs start 2-10, Brady gets benched. Supposedly it's because of injury. The rest of the season is spent showing him sitting on the sideline. He retires when the year is done.

He retires with 292 wins, 99,000 passing yards, 730 TDs, 85 Postseason TDs. Not at all saying that's what's going to happen, but that's what going out on a whimper would look like in my book. Do you think the described scenario would enhance Brady's legacy, or detract from it? I would argue it would detract from it. "Super Durable, other than 2008, never missed a game due to injury" is gone. "Never failed to make the playoffs when starting more than 4 games in a season" is gone. His playoff record is worsened, 2 more 1 and dones are added to it. In my opinion, if you have the same scenario above for 2021, and then after the injury in 2022 Brady just calls it, it's better for his legacy as a QB. Not that I'm wishing injury on him or saying that'll happen, whatsoever, just comparing the two hypothetical scenarios, I think in that potential future timeline he's better off just walking away after the injury. Would you disagree?
 

Mazz22

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For me, this is what going out on a whimper would look like:
2021: 10-7 with a wildcard berth, they lose in the wildcard round in a close game.
2022: Early-ish in the season, (say after a 2-1 start) Brady gets injured, the Bucs do not make the playoffs.
2023: Brady comes back, leads them to a 8-9 record which somehow sneaks into the playoffs, they lose in the playoffs badly, off Brady throwing multiple picks.
2024: The Bucs go 5-12, Brady looks thoroughly washed. We hear all offseason how he was playing through injuries all year.
2025: The Bucs start 2-10, Brady gets benched. Supposedly it's because of injury. The rest of the season is spent showing him sitting on the sideline. He retires when the year is done.

He retires with 292 wins, 99,000 passing yards, 730 TDs, 85 Postseason TDs. Not at all saying that's what's going to happen, but that's what going out on a whimper would look like in my book. Do you think the described scenario would enhance Brady's legacy, or detract from it? I would argue it would detract from it. "Super Durable, other than 2008, never missed a game due to injury" is gone. "Never failed to make the playoffs when starting more than 4 games in a season" is gone. His playoff record is worsened, 2 more 1 and dones are added to it. In my opinion, if you have the same scenario above for 2021, and then after the injury in 2022 Brady just calls it, it's better for his legacy as a QB. Not that I'm wishing injury on him or saying that'll happen, whatsoever, just comparing the two hypothetical scenarios, I think in that potential future timeline he's better off just walking away after the injury. Would you disagree?
My honest feeling is there is really nothing Brady can do to hurt his legacy. I believed that back when he did 28-3 but even more so now that he has won away from Bill in year one.

I believe him when he says he will call it quits if he can no longer compete at a champ level. There is no player who has ever been more in tuned with his body and pushed it harder than Brady. I think he will know in the off-season when he is actually done. His main goal since he turned 40 was to just maintain his strength and mobility and not try to improve. But of course just doing that in your mid 40s is hard. He talked about having to rehab this year and how his body got used to not working out because he couldn't with the knee surgery and how hard it was for him to get back into form this TC.

So eventually things will add up but I fully expect him to retire when most of us still think he has something left. In other words, he will know before we do.
 
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Giant Octopodes

Giant Octopodes

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My honest feeling is there is really nothing Brady can do to hurt his legacy. I believed that back when he did 28-3 but even more so now that he has won away from Bill in year one.

I believe him when he says he will call it quits if he can no longer compete at a champ level. There is no player who has ever been more in tuned with his body and pushed it harder than Brady. I think he will know in the off-season when he is actually done. His main goal since he turned 40 was to just maintain his strength and mobility and not try to improve. But of course just doing that in your mid 40s is hard. He talked about having to rehab this year and how his body got used to not working out because he couldn't with the knee surgery and how hard it was for him to get back into form this TC.

So eventually things will add up but I fully expect him to retire when most of us still think he has something left. In other words, he will know before we do.
I hope so. I genuinely do. However a significant part of me fears that the same thing that drives him to keep going, and motivates him to excel, also won't let him walk away. Between him coming back from a MCL tear and the continually revising timeline for when he'll retire, I fear that us seeing it coming will be internalized by him as a "me vs the world" situation and he'll try to use it for motivation and keep going well past when it's time to walk away. A significant part of me fears he'll never walk away, that the only way he's leaving the football field and not returning to it is on a cart. But I certainly hope I'm wrong and you are correct on this one.
 

Mazz22

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I hope so. I genuinely do. However a significant part of me fears that the same thing that drives him to keep going, and motivates him to excel, also won't let him walk away. Between him coming back from a MCL tear and the continually revising timeline for when he'll retire, I fear that us seeing it coming will be internalized by him as a "me vs the world" situation and he'll try to use it for motivation and keep going well past when it's time to walk away. A significant part of me fears he'll never walk away, that the only way he's leaving the football field and not returning to it is on a cart. But I certainly hope I'm wrong and you are correct on this one.
A lot of great athletes do have a tough time knowing when to leave.
 

deec77

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I hope so. I genuinely do. However a significant part of me fears that the same thing that drives him to keep going, and motivates him to excel, also won't let him walk away. Between him coming back from a MCL tear and the continually revising timeline for when he'll retire, I fear that us seeing it coming will be internalized by him as a "me vs the world" situation and he'll try to use it for motivation and keep going well past when it's time to walk away. A significant part of me fears he'll never walk away, that the only way he's leaving the football field and not returning to it is on a cart. But I certainly hope I'm wrong and you are correct on this one.

Thats exactly my point......

~Dee~
 

Mazz22

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The thing with Brady is you can make the case that he is the best team sport player of all time. IMO, he has also done it in the modern era which is the toughest era in terms of the speed, strength of the players and the distractions of social media. He also plays the toughest sport IMO with the shortest longevity. So again IMO, there really is nothing that can happen these final years to ever remove him from that status.

I have argued this pretty strongly but it bears repeating. His win last year did MORE for his personal legacy than any other win. He is the only great player in any team sport to have so much of his success credited to his coach and organization. That was always going to hang over no matter how much he won with the Pats. Going to Tampa, the losingest franchise in NFL history and switching conferences, offensive system and in a Covid year, completely changed the narrative on his career to the point that lifelong naysayers like Kellerman are singing his praises.

I can't think of another team athlete that ever had a win that late in his career that impacted his personal legacy more than Brady. Can you?
 
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