Are the Ravens the best team in the AFC?

[Flagg the Wanderer]

I think it's the game of the year because they need to beat a good team and show that they can play well for 60 mins in all 3 phases, not only on the road, but against an AFC playoff contender.

To me, it's an enormous game, because if you look at the schedule, they can reel off 4 or 5 in a row here. And, I am not afraid of Buffalo either. Winning vs the Chargers could be a springboard for the rest of the year.

I agree with this for the most part. As I said elsewhere, I think this is a very winnable game, and if they win it they have a defensible path to 7-4.

I expect the offense to scheme around Joey Bosa (which may involve running right at him) and score their share. I don't think the DBs can hold up for very long, so for me this game likely comes down to getting pressure on Hebert to help cover for the DBs.

 

[TyLawsPick6]

I agree with this for the most part. As I said elsewhere, I think this is a very winnable game, and if they win it they have a defensible path to 7-4.

I expect the offense to scheme around Joey Bosa (which may involve running right at him) and score their share. I don't think the DBs can hold up for very long, so for me this game likely comes down to getting pressure on Hebert to help cover for the DBs.

Completely agree. These Clay Matthews OLBs with no real interest in run D, you run right at them and use some hammer jobs from the TE and FB, too. When passing, don't be afraid to use those delayed draws and counters, too, because Bosa is one of the more overrated guys in the league in terms of what people claim he's great at and what the reality. Also, his brother in SF is better.

Some of these "pass rushing" obsessed "sack" guys are not only liabilities vs the run like Clay Matthews was refusing to set the edge for years in GB, they are predictable, too.

 

[Grogan]

I don't think this one game is that drastic of a determinor, but a win here would definitely be something to perhaps inspire more optimism from out resident Eyoree's.

It would beca fairly good determination of which way we are going. We need to start putting some wins together against wining teams.

 

[Big/Sky/Fly]

It'll be a fun game to watch. I like Herbert a lot. He's one of my favorite non Patriot QB's to watch. Eckler is amazing for his size. Their offense is one of the best.

 

[Phil Elliott]

If the Patriots win on Sunday, those who are now saying, "We'll see how they do this week against a real team, on the road, across the country..." will then say, "Big whoop...they're 4 and 4, a .500 team..."

 

[TyLawsPick6]

If the Patriots win on Sunday, those who are now saying, "We'll see how they do this week against a real team, on the road, across the country..." will then say, "Big whoop...they're 4 and 4, a .500 team..."

That's exactly what will happen. The fear will build and build and build and they'll keep moving the goalposts again. You know who will lead the charge with it.

 

[Giant Octopodes]

If the Patriots win on Sunday, those who are now saying, "We'll see how they do this week against a real team, on the road, across the country..." will then say, "Big whoop...they're 4 and 4, a .500 team..."

Though I agree the goalposts will move, I don't think it'll be "big whoop", I think it'll be a moving of goalposts associated with changing expectations. It'll be the moving of goalposts to say 'hey, you're now in the fringe of the NFL playoff picture, can you stay there or continue to climb?' We shall see of course (if we get there!) but that's my prediction. It will naturally though depend in large part on who you're listening to.

 

[Flagg the Wanderer]

I've already said that I thought this game was key to have that "quality win" against a contender and trigger some momentum, but it isn't as if they're truly buried with a loss.

BUT

At the end of the day, it's very unlikely that 11 wins won't make it into the playoffs, and all the wins count the same. "The switch" can flip at any point, as we've seen in the past. But a loss this week really cuts the margin for error, as it's not only a 5th loss, but to a team we might need the H2H against for the WC. (Note: I think the Chargers are more likely to be a division winner than take the WC, so if I had to choose between winning this game and winning the Raiders game, I'd take the Raiders game.)

Also, when I laid out the playoff picture earlier on this thread, I only realized later that I totally forgot about the Chiefs! While funny, that's probably not smart. They'll be in the hunt in December for sure.

 

[Mazz22]

I've already said that I thought this game was key to have that "quality win" against a contender and trigger some momentum, but it isn't as if they're truly buried with a loss.

BUT

At the end of the day, it's very unlikely that 11 wins won't make it into the playoffs, and all the wins count the same. "The switch" can flip at any point, as we've seen in the past. But a loss this week really cuts the margin for error, as it's not only a 5th loss, but to a team we might need the H2H against for the WC. (Note: I think the Chargers are more likely to be a division winner than take the WC, so if I had to choose between winning this game and winning the Raiders game, I'd take the Raiders game.)

Also, when I laid out the playoff picture earlier on this thread, I only realized later that I totally forgot about the Chiefs! While funny, that's probably not smart. They'll be in the hunt in December for sure.

Bedard was saying yesterday that he thought 9 wins would be enough in the AFC for the playoffs. Might be one of his worst takes ever.

I think 11 wins is the benchmark but for us we need to win vs the Browns and Colts the most in terms of WC positioning. I believe the Chargers are going to win the West although I don't want to discount the Raiders so a loss for the Chargers I don't believe will sink us a lot.
We have to split with the Bills to realistically have any shot but I think that is doable as the Bills don't appear to be as formidable as they were last year. The other game that is in the balance is at Miami to end the season. If Miami has Watson then and he is eligible to play that game could be the decider for a WC which really stinks.

 

[TyLawsPick6]

Though I agree the goalposts will move, I don't think it'll be "big whoop", I think it'll be a moving of goalposts associated with changing expectations. It'll be the moving of goalposts to say 'hey, you're now in the fringe of the NFL playoff picture, can you stay there or continue to climb?' We shall see of course (if we get there!) but that's my prediction. It will naturally though depend in large part on who you're listening to.

So you think they'll do the whole move the goalposts thing and talk about them as if they can't miss, basically making an outlandish and unreasonable predictions, so when they don't accomplish those, they can bash them. Seems a bit early in the season for that, but I guess the troll media may pull it out.

That is another technique Felger/Mazz and the trolls will use. That's usually the 3rd option.

 

[Flagg the Wanderer]

Bedard was saying yesterday that he thought 9 wins would be enough in the AFC for the playoffs. Might be one of his worst takes ever.

I think 11 wins is the benchmark but for us we need to win vs the Browns and Colts the most in terms of WC positioning. I believe the Chargers are going to win the West although I don't want to discount the Raiders so a loss for the Chargers I don't believe will sink us a lot.
We have to split with the Bills to realistically have any shot but I think that is doable as the Bills don't appear to be as formidable as they were last year. The other game that is in the balance is at Miami to end the season. If Miami has Watson then and he is eligible to play that game could be the decider for a WC which really stinks.

I think 11 is basically a lock, 10 could do it with decent tiebreakers.

I don't expect the Colts to be there in December - that is just not a very good team, and I don't see significant developmental upside. They do have 4 games against Houston and Jax going for them, so it's not totally out of the question, though. I have no fear of Miami, with or without Watson.

You can basically tier the AFC teams in terms of likelihood to make the playoffs:
Tier 1: Bills and Titans (good teams, good lead, cupcakes in the division)
Tier 2: Bengals, Chargers, Ravens (good teams, good record, tougher divisions)
Tier 3a: Raiders (good record, tougher division)
Tier 3b: Chiefs, Browns, Patriots (good teams, bad starts)
Tier 4: Steelers, Colts, Broncos (not out of it, but not good teams, PIT/DEN have tough divisions)
Tier LOL: Jax, Jets, Dolphins, Houston

Barring something catastrophic, I think tier 1 teams are locks. Maybe one team falls out of tiers 1&2, but at least 4 of those 5 teams are in. So 1, maybe 2 teams from tier 3 are going to make it.

Of those, you can't ignore the Raiders' head start and the Chiefs' explosiveness and high-end talent, plus their track record. From that perspective you could say those two have the best chance, but they play each other twice. I think the Pats and Browns might be the two best teams overall, but in both cases they need things to come together and gel to be good enough to dig out of the hole they are in. And the Browns' remaining schedule is nasty.

 

[Big/Sky/Fly]

I think 11 is basically a lock, 10 could do it with decent tiebreakers.

I don't expect the Colts to be there in December - that is just not a very good team, and I don't see significant developmental upside. They do have 4 games against Houston and Jax going for them, so it's not totally out of the question, though. I have no fear of Miami, with or without Watson.

You can basically tier the AFC teams in terms of likelihood to make the playoffs:
Tier 1: Bills and Titans (good teams, good lead, cupcakes in the division)
Tier 2: Bengals, Chargers, Ravens (good teams, good record, tougher divisions)
Tier 3a: Raiders (good record, tougher division)
Tier 3b: Chiefs, Browns, Patriots (good teams, bad starts)
Tier 4: Steelers, Colts, Broncos (not out of it, but not good teams, PIT/DEN have tough divisions)
Tier LOL: Jax, Jets, Dolphins, Houston

Barring something catastrophic, I think tier 1 teams are locks. Maybe one team falls out of tiers 1&2, but at least 4 of those 5 teams are in. So 1, maybe 2 teams from tier 3 are going to make it.

Of those, you can't ignore the Raiders' head start and the Chiefs' explosiveness and high-end talent, plus their track record. From that perspective you could say those two have the best chance, but they play each other twice. I think the Pats and Browns might be the two best teams overall, but in both cases they need things to come together and gel to be good enough to dig out of the hole they are in. And the Browns' remaining schedule is nasty.

Browns are better than you think. Their injuries are bad though. Keenum is a hit or miss QB. Sometimes he plays good enough, sometimes he is terrible.

 

[Flagg the Wanderer]

Browns are better than you think. Their injuries are bad though. Keenum is a hit or miss QB. Sometimes he plays good enough, sometimes he is terrible.

No, I'm pretty bullish on the Browns overall. But injuries take a toll, OBJ is hurting the feel of the team, and their schedule is brutal - they don't have a bye to heal and collect themselves until week 13.

Of their remaining games, I think only the Steelers (x2) and the Lions are clear likely wins. I'd expect that they should beat the Raiders at home, but I don't think they're a clear favorite by any means.

They'd need to win the four above and a minimum of 2 (more likely 3) of these 6:
Bengals x2
Ravens x2
@ Patriots
@ Packers
That's a tall order given their current injuries. And I'm not sure the Steelers this week are a gimme with 75% of Baker or 100% of Keenum. Bobble this one and they need to win 3 or 4 of those 6 to be in contention.

Good team. Tough road.

 

[Giant Octopodes]

I think 11 is basically a lock, 10 could do it with decent tiebreakers.

I don't expect the Colts to be there in December - that is just not a very good team, and I don't see significant developmental upside. They do have 4 games against Houston and Jax going for them, so it's not totally out of the question, though. I have no fear of Miami, with or without Watson.

You can basically tier the AFC teams in terms of likelihood to make the playoffs:
Tier 1: Bills and Titans (good teams, good lead, cupcakes in the division)
Tier 2: Bengals, Chargers, Ravens (good teams, good record, tougher divisions)
Tier 3a: Raiders (good record, tougher division)
Tier 3b: Chiefs, Browns, Patriots (good teams, bad starts)
Tier 4: Steelers, Colts, Broncos (not out of it, but not good teams, PIT/DEN have tough divisions)
Tier LOL: Jax, Jets, Dolphins, Houston

Barring something catastrophic, I think tier 1 teams are locks. Maybe one team falls out of tiers 1&2, but at least 4 of those 5 teams are in. So 1, maybe 2 teams from tier 3 are going to make it.

Of those, you can't ignore the Raiders' head start and the Chiefs' explosiveness and high-end talent, plus their track record. From that perspective you could say those two have the best chance, but they play each other twice. I think the Pats and Browns might be the two best teams overall, but in both cases they need things to come together and gel to be good enough to dig out of the hole they are in. And the Browns' remaining schedule is nasty.

I think you have the Chiefs a tier too high, and the Chargers at least 1 tier too high. Overall though I don't think you're far off.

 

[TommyD420]

Gods, this is tiring shit to read.

Can you AC them both?

 

[TommyD420]

I agree with this for the most part. As I said elsewhere, I think this is a very winnable game, and if they win it they have a defensible path to 7-4.

I expect the offense to scheme around Joey Bosa (which may involve running right at him) and score their share. I don't think the DBs can hold up for very long, so for me this game likely comes down to getting pressure on Hebert to help cover for the DBs.

That's how they won the playoff game here in 2019.

 

[Patriots44]

Tried to get thru all the posts here so I could put my $ .02 in, but it can be tough sometimes
so at the risk of redundancy... the AFC looks very interesting with a tier of teams that can be the Tier 1 but can also suck on any given sunday

I'd say Bills and Ravens most likely to Tier 1 ( but can still lose any game)
Titans are funny... they lost to the Jets and I'm not sold that Tannehill can come thru when it matters compared to Allen and Lamar, so I'd put the Tit's tier 1.5
Bengals could be tier 1 or tier 1.5 - 2.... lets give them a bit more time to judge. If it can't be the Pats my next choice is Bengals... those poor fans have suffered way to long (basically forever )

Browns, Raiders, Pats, Chefs, Colts... in the hunt. am I missing anyone? Can Squeelers get into the conversation (hope not)? Browns are going to have to prove it to me still.
I'd love to bury the Chefs but too much there t write them off just yet (but I'm hoping we can soon)

 

[AnOldTroll]

Yinz are giving up on the Steelers too soon.

 

[Mazz22]

Yinz are giving up on the Steelers too soon.

True. They have 3 wins as well. The issue is you play the Ravens, Browns and Bengals twice. I don't see how you get to 10 wins. None of those teams are close to as putrid as the Jete and Fins. Lol