Are you happy with the Drake Maye pick?

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imapig said:
Brady got better as his career moved forward. He adapted to the cold weather by wearing the scuba suit, etc..
I felt like Drake didn’t do all that great when it was raining. His throws were quite a bit off in the beginning of the Tampa Bay game.
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I think that will get better with more experience. Brady had some pretty miserable games in the rain. He always said rain was harder to play in than snow.
 
Mazz22 said:
I think that will get better with more experience. Brady had some pretty miserable games in the rain. He always said rain was harder to play in than snow.
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I could definitely understand why rain would be harder to throw the ball in.I'll tell you this.I would much rather drive in snow than hard rain at night.
 
Mazz22 said:
I think that will get better with more experience. Brady had some pretty miserable games in the rain. He always said rain was harder to play in than snow.
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HSanders said:
I could definitely understand why rain would be harder to throw the ball in.I'll tell you this.I would much rather drive in snow than hard rain at night.
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Weather definitely affects QBs. Wind, cold, rain and snow. Most QBs and coaches say high gusty wind is worst overall. That Pats-Buffalo game the Pats won in 2021 throwing only 3 passes is a good example. Fortunately, we don't see those conditions very often. We see lots of games in cold, rain and snow. Wet snow makes the ball slippery. Tua and Jared Goff are present day QBs who have trouble in bad weather games. With Tua it's cold temps and with Goff it's cold and/or precipitation of any kind. Goff in good weather has outstanding stats.
 
HSanders said:
I could definitely understand why rain would be harder to throw the ball in.I'll tell you this.I would much rather drive in snow than hard rain at night.
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I'm with you there. I can barely see the road at night in the rain but snow is great (unless it is a whiteout).

Neither rain nor snow will be a problem for me this winter. I'm in Mexico. Never has snowed where I am and it won't rain until mid-May. Currently 75 degrees and sunny, just like every day :)
 
spacecrime said:
Neither rain nor snow will be a problem for me this winter. I'm in Mexico. Never has snowed where I am and it won't rain until mid-May. Currently 75 degrees and sunny, just like every day :)
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:spock:

mister rogers middle finger GIF
 
NFL quarterbacks ranked by Total QBR

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott: 75.1
Patriots QB Drake Maye: 73.2
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes: 72.7
Seahawks QB Sam Darnold: 71.2
Packers QB Jordan Love: 69.7
49ers QB Brock Purdy: 69.6
Rams QB Matthew Stafford: 68.7
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson: 66.9
Colts QB Daniel Jones: 66.4
Texans QB C.J. Stroud: 65.4
Giants QB Jaxson Dart: 64.8
Bills QB Josh Allen: 62.6
Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield: 61.2
Chargers QB Justin Herbert: 60.9
Lions QB Jared Goff: 60.6
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts: 59.8
Commanders QB Marcus Mariota: 59.4
Bears QB Caleb Williams: 54.7
Broncos QB Bo Nix: 53.5
Saints QB Tyler Shough: 47.1
Bengals QB Joe Flacco: 46.6
Panthers QB Bryce Young: 45.8
Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers: 43.9
Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence: 43.2
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa: 42.9
Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett: 41.7
Jets QB Tyrod Taylor: 36.6
Raiders QB Geno Smith: 32.6
Falcons QB Kirk Cousins: 31.4
Titans QB Cameron Ward: 28.1
Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy: 26.6
Browns QB Shedeur Sanders: 2.4

www.usatoday.com

All 32 NFL quarterbacks (including Bo Nix) ranked by Total QBR in Week 12

Broncos QB Bo Nix ranks 19th among starters with a 53.3 Total QBR rating.
www.usatoday.com
 
Driven by in-game analytics, this article shows Drake Maye is the league's 4th best QB in the 2-minute drill

Drake Maye, New England Patriots

Stats: Leads the NFL with a 72% completion percentage in the two-minute drill, is third in yards per attempt (9.2) and tied for seventh in TD passes (3).

Why he has been so effective: The Patriots have received the opening kickoff of the second half seven times, a result, in part, of winning the game's opening toss seven times. That has allowed coach Mike Vrabel, coordinator Josh McDaniels and Maye to manage the majority of games with the strategy of having back-to-back possessions.
Stepping up when the pressure is high

Here are the top 5 quarterbacks in QBR in the last 2 minutes of the first and second halves, and their NFL rankings in several categories.
Player Comp Per. Yds/Att QBR Pass TD
Dak Prescott 71% (2nd) 9.2 (2nd) 98 (1st) 6 (1st)
Caleb Williams 52% (27th) 6.7 (16th) 92 (2nd) (T-7th)
Bo Nix 55% (22nd) 6.4 (20th) 86(3rd) 4 (T-2nd)
Drake Maye 72% (1st) 9.2 (3rd) 86 (4th) 3 (T-7th)
Aaron Rodgers 61% (18th) 5.0 (32nd) 85 (5th) 3 (T-7th)

So, first and foremost, Maye is playing smart football. And his growing knack for tight-window throws -- and the competitiveness of Patriots pass catchers to deliver in those situations -- stands out. A fourth-and-1 dime to WR Stefon Diggs in the back left corner of the end zone at the end of the second quarter in a Week 10 win over the Buccaneers (accompanied by a Diggs toe-tap), and a third-and-11 back-shoulder sideline gem to WR Kayshon Boutte to close out a Week 6 win over the Saints, are among Maye's best tight-window work. -- Reiss

Quote: "In practice, we put a lot of emphasis in knowing the situations, knowing what type of mode we're in -- if we want to drain some clock or try to get some points. I think the guys have responded well from practice to the games.

"It goes back to practicing in training camp full speed, and the first few times against our defense we maybe weren't very good. Just practicing against a good defense -- end of the game, end of the half -- and the more experience I get with them, I think the better we're becoming and improving." -- Maye

www.espn.com

Here are the top 5 QBs in the two-minute drill, and a couple may surprise you

Caleb Williams, Dak Prescott, Bo Nix, Drake Maye and Aaron Rodgers have been at their best in high-pressure moments this season.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
 
chevss454 said:
Driven by in-game analytics, this article shows Drake Maye is the league's 4th best QB in the 2-minute drill

Drake Maye, New England Patriots

Stats: Leads the NFL with a 72% completion percentage in the two-minute drill, is third in yards per attempt (9.2) and tied for seventh in TD passes (3).

Why he has been so effective: The Patriots have received the opening kickoff of the second half seven times, a result, in part, of winning the game's opening toss seven times. That has allowed coach Mike Vrabel, coordinator Josh McDaniels and Maye to manage the majority of games with the strategy of having back-to-back possessions.
Stepping up when the pressure is high

Here are the top 5 quarterbacks in QBR in the last 2 minutes of the first and second halves, and their NFL rankings in several categories.
Player Comp Per. Yds/Att QBR Pass TD
Dak Prescott 71% (2nd) 9.2 (2nd) 98 (1st) 6 (1st)
Caleb Williams 52% (27th) 6.7 (16th) 92 (2nd) (T-7th)
Bo Nix 55% (22nd) 6.4 (20th) 86(3rd) 4 (T-2nd)
Drake Maye 72% (1st) 9.2 (3rd) 86 (4th) 3 (T-7th)
Aaron Rodgers 61% (18th) 5.0 (32nd) 85 (5th) 3 (T-7th)

So, first and foremost, Maye is playing smart football. And his growing knack for tight-window throws -- and the competitiveness of Patriots pass catchers to deliver in those situations -- stands out. A fourth-and-1 dime to WR Stefon Diggs in the back left corner of the end zone at the end of the second quarter in a Week 10 win over the Buccaneers (accompanied by a Diggs toe-tap), and a third-and-11 back-shoulder sideline gem to WR Kayshon Boutte to close out a Week 6 win over the Saints, are among Maye's best tight-window work. -- Reiss

Quote: "In practice, we put a lot of emphasis in knowing the situations, knowing what type of mode we're in -- if we want to drain some clock or try to get some points. I think the guys have responded well from practice to the games.

"It goes back to practicing in training camp full speed, and the first few times against our defense we maybe weren't very good. Just practicing against a good defense -- end of the game, end of the half -- and the more experience I get with them, I think the better we're becoming and improving." -- Maye

www.espn.com

Here are the top 5 QBs in the two-minute drill, and a couple may surprise you

Caleb Williams, Dak Prescott, Bo Nix, Drake Maye and Aaron Rodgers have been at their best in high-pressure moments this season.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
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This is interesting. ESPN's QBR is the one centered around 50 and maxing out at approaching 100, right?

I would rank them by drives ending in TDs in those situations rather than by passing TDs. Maybe even something like a drive success ratio for the end of game drives, where a FG counts as a TD if a FG is all that is needed to win the game. But overall this is not a bad approach to ranking 2 minute drill effectiveness. Note that I would probably look sideways for awhile at any methodology that doesn't put Bo Nix at #1 or #2 at this point. Maybe something about including other 4Q drives where you are multiple scores behind, so essentially in 2 minute mode for those drives as well?
 
Flagg the Wanderer said:
This is interesting. ESPN's QBR is the one centered around 50 and maxing out at approaching 100, right?

I would rank them by drives ending in TDs in those situations rather than by passing TDs. Maybe even something like a drive success ratio for the end of game drives, where a FG counts as a TD if a FG is all that is needed to win the game. But overall this is not a bad approach to ranking 2 minute drill effectiveness. Note that I would probably look sideways for awhile at any methodology that doesn't put Bo Nix at #1 or #2 at this point. Maybe something about including other 4Q drives where you are multiple scores behind, so essentially in 2 minute mode for those drives as well?
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These are the QB metrics that correlate best with excellent QB play.
EPA, ANY/A (avg net yd/attempt), Passer Rating and QBR are the top metrics with EPA (expected points added) being the best.
As you can see from the top 4 metrics, efficiency (ANY/A) along with good results (EPA) over time leads to better predictability for judging QB performance.

Completion % and completion percent over expected are not actually good indicators.

FbPQ19MUsAAWxzi
 
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chevss454 said:
These are the QB metrics that correlate best with wins. EPA, ANY/A (avg net yd/attempt), Passer Rating and QBR are the top metrics with EPA (expected points added) being the best.
As you can see from the top 4 metrics, efficiency (ANY/A) along with good results (EPA) over time leads to better predictability for judging QB performance.

Completion % and completion percent over expected are not actually good indicators.

FbPQ19MUsAAWxzi
Click to expand...

What about this metric: number of scoring drives that were aided by roughing the passer and/or defensive pass interference calls?

The Chiefs and Mahomes are documented as leading the league every year in those in the playoffs, and getting those calls is by far the best predictor for QB success.
 
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TipRoast said:
What about this metric: number of scoring drives that were aided by roughing the passer and/or defensive pass interference calls?

The Chiefs and Mahomes are documented as leading the league every year in the playoffs, and getting those calls is by far the best predicator for QB success.
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Refs can definitely affect games but don't directly affect a QB's performance.
 
chevss454 said:
Refs can definitely affect games but don't directly affect a QB's performance.
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I disagree - I've started doing an AI-assisted analysis of which QBs get helped by overturned interceptions.

Some QBs get a lot of those calls, and Mahomes is statistical outlier. He gets far more of those calls than any other QB - his rate is 10 times the league average.
 
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TipRoast said:
I disagree - I've starting do an AI-assisted analysis of which QBs get helped by overturned interceptions.

Some QBs get a lot of those calls, and Mahomes is statistical outlier. He gets far more of those calls than any other QB - his rate is 10 times the league average.
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I read that and it's definitely interesting and good to know. And yes that would have a direct affect
 
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