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Big/Sky/Fly said:
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Nah, it's gonna crash extremely hard fairly soon...on a MUCH larger scale than 2007 ever was.
Click to expand...

Everything I've read says the real estate market will continue to expand for at least the next 4-5 years but not at the historic rate we saw this past spring. (Forbes, WSJ)
New house construction has been short for over a decade; 1st time buyers didn't buy because of the 2007 bust but their numbers have risen dramatically and now they are ready to buy.
Covid for 2 years magnified the lack of new construction. Low supply & pent up high demand is driving the market.
Interest rates have been historically low and buyers with money have been lined up to buy which reached a peak this past spring.
Interest rates are still holding low despite the rise in Fed rate. 4.4% for 30 years or a 3.6% 10 yr ARM is still the norm and 1/2 the interest rates we saw in 2008-2012.
Banks and mortgage companies have plenty of money to lend but are using much tighter credit qualifying demands than back in 2004-2007. Predatory loans no longer exist.
After a 1 month lull when the Fed raised rates, buyers are back in force. Current demand for new and existing homes for sale far exceeds the supply.
Houses are still selling for over asking price in most every state. (Realtors are purposely listing houses for slightly less than actual value to incite bidding wars. "All offers are due by 2 PM Monday and will be opened at 10 AM Tuesday" has become normal after a court decided it was a legal tactic.)
The 20-25% appreciation we saw in late 2021 & early 2022 is expected to slow but still be a minimum of 5%/yr for at least the next 5 years.
There will be no crash any time soon according to Forbes and the WSJ.
 
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chevss454 said:
Everything I've read says the real estate market will continue to expand for at least the next 4-5 years but not at the historic rate we saw this past spring. (Forbes, WSJ)
New house construction has been short for over a decade; 1st time buyers didn't buy because of the 2007 bust but their numbers have risen dramatically and now they are ready to buy.
Covid for 2 years magnified the lack of new construction. Low supply & pent up high demand is driving the market.
Interest rates have been historically low and buyers with money have been lined up to buy which reached a peak this past spring.
Interest rates are still holding low despite the rise in Fed rate. 4.4% for 30 years or a 3.6% 10 yr ARM is still the norm and 1/2 the interest rates we saw in 2008-2012.
Banks and mortgage companies have plenty of money to lend but are using much tighter credit qualifying demands than back in 2004-2007. Predatory loans no longer exist.
After a 1 month lull when the Fed raised rates, buyers are back in force. Current demand for new and existing homes for sale far exceeds the supply.
Houses are still selling for over asking price in most every state. (Realtors are purposely listing houses for slightly less than actual value to incite bidding wars. "All offers are due by 2 PM Monday and will be opened at 10 AM Tuesday" has become normal after a court decided it was a legal tactic.)
The 20-25% appreciation we saw in late 2021 & early 2022 is expected to slow but still be a minimum of 5%/yr for at least the next 5 years.
There will be no crash any time soon according to Forbes and the WSJ.
Click to expand...

Agree. Add the lack of pre-packaged garbage being sold as solid loan securities and 400% more liquidity (as mentioned above) and the housing market will be fine just not booming.

They can’t build fast enough here and entire subdivisions are sold out prior to a single basement getting dug at premium.

I thought the fed would kill the mortgage market. Turns out they simply gave it a few pimples. If they go 50-75 basis pts higher more that 2 times in the next 6 months they will give the market a bad cold.
 
aloyouis said:
Agree. Add the lack of pre-packaged garbage being sold as solid loan securities and 400% more liquidity (as mentioned above) and the housing market will be fine just not booming.

They can’t build fast enough here and entire subdivisions are sold out prior to a single basement getting dug at premium.

I thought the fed would kill the mortgage market. Turns out they simply gave it a few pimples. If they go 50-75 basis pts higher more that 2 times in the next 6 months they will give the market a bad cold.
Click to expand...
This article is from 2002. Inflation is what will kill housing. When you can't fill the fridge, the mortgage means nothing.

www.forbes.com

Home Sick

www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
 
foobahl said:
This article is from 2002. Inflation is what will kill housing. When you can't fill the fridge, the mortgage means nothing.

www.forbes.com

Home Sick

www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
Click to expand...

The current financial situation is vastly different now than it was in 2002. And even if it ween't, the Clinton rules on mortgage lending no longer exist and those rules (intended to help the lowest income families get mortgages) AND it took another 5 years from 2002 for the liquidity crisis to blow up the banks.

There is way more (technical term there) liquidity today.
 
chevss454 said:
Everything I've read says the real estate market will continue to expand for at least the next 4-5 years but not at the historic rate we saw this past spring. (Forbes, WSJ)
New house construction has been short for over a decade; 1st time buyers didn't buy because of the 2007 bust but their numbers have risen dramatically and now they are ready to buy.
Covid for 2 years magnified the lack of new construction. Low supply & pent up high demand is driving the market.
Interest rates have been historically low and buyers with money have been lined up to buy which reached a peak this past spring.
Interest rates are still holding low despite the rise in Fed rate. 4.4% for 30 years or a 3.6% 10 yr ARM is still the norm and 1/2 the interest rates we saw in 2008-2012.
Banks and mortgage companies have plenty of money to lend but are using much tighter credit qualifying demands than back in 2004-2007. Predatory loans no longer exist.
After a 1 month lull when the Fed raised rates, buyers are back in force. Current demand for new and existing homes for sale far exceeds the supply.
Houses are still selling for over asking price in most every state. (Realtors are purposely listing houses for slightly less than actual value to incite bidding wars. "All offers are due by 2 PM Monday and will be opened at 10 AM Tuesday" has become normal after a court decided it was a legal tactic.)
The 20-25% appreciation we saw in late 2021 & early 2022 is expected to slow but still be a minimum of 5%/yr for at least the next 5 years.
There will be no crash any time soon according to Forbes and the WSJ.
Click to expand...
I flip contracts (one of my side things). You can make bank doing that no matter the market. But, the dollar is going to end soon. Not my words. It is absolutely going to tank. Housing and everything else will domino.
 
Black Rock and other huge corporations are taking out the middleman for a chunk of the real estate. When they say that you will own nothing, this is related to that.
 
Ok, these posts and any related responses need to move to the PR forum and out of the Circle
 
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