Handicapping the AFC East entering the season's final month

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I don't post on Miami or NYJ forums, but thought this would be interesting as it's an AFCE Article

Handicapping the AFC East entering the season's final month

Here is a team-by-team look – with predictions – of the more-competitive-than-expected AFC East:

Bills
Record:
9-3.
Best win: Week 6 at Kansas City (24-20).
Worst loss: Week 9 at New York Jets (20-17).
Remaining schedule: vs. Jets (Dec. 11), vs. Miami (Dec. 17 or 18), at Chicago (Dec. 24), at Cincinnati (Jan. 2) and vs. New England (Jan. 8).
Reasons for optimism: The Bills exited Thursday night’s win at New England second in yards per game (410.8) and third in fewest yards allowed (274.5). It is a team that complements each other in all three phases. … Their 41 completions of at least 20 yards are sixth in the league. … QB Josh Allen is second in the league with 25 touchdown passes.
Reasons for concern: Turnovers. The Bills’ 20 giveaways are 30th in the NFL, ahead of only Indianapolis/New Orleans (21 apiece). … The rush defense has been up (allowing less than 100 yards in each of the last three games) and down (at least 147 yards allowed in Games 7-9). … DE Von Miller’s knee injury (out at least three more games) takes away their best pass rusher.
Key injuries: Miller missed his first game Thursday. … LT Dion Dawkins (ankle) missed the win over New England. … CB Tre’Davious White (ACL) has played two games since missing an entire calendar year.
Number to know: The Bills’ offense leads the NFL in third-down conversion rate at 51.8%, currently the second-best mark in franchise history (52.9% in 1980).
Final prediction: 13-4 (first place). The Bills’ Week 17 trip to Cincinnati will be their only remaining loss and will place them as the second seed in the AFC, which means at least two home playoff games.

Miami
Record:
8-3.
Best win: Week 3 win over Buffalo (21-19).
Worst loss: Week 5 at the New York Jets (40-17).
Remaining schedule: at San Francisco (Sunday), at Los Angeles Chargers (Dec. 11), at Bills (Dec. 17 or 18), vs. Green Bay (Dec. 25), at New England (Jan. 1) and vs. Jets (Jan. 8).
Reasons for optimism: QB Tua Tagovailoa is playing at an MVP level, leading the league in passer rating (115.7). … WRs Tyreek Hill (first in the league with 87 catches and 1,233 receiving yards) and Jaylen Waddle (fifth with 963 receiving yards) are a terrific 1-1A combo. … Since being acquired from San Francisco, RB Jeff Wilson has averaged 5.4 yards per carry.
Reasons for concern: The schedule is difficult, starting with a three-game road swing to the 49ers, Chargers and Bills. … Can they make enough stops defensively? The Dolphins are tied for 18th in sacks (25), aren’t very good in the red zone (29th) and their 11 takeaways (only six interceptions) are 25th. … The Dolphins’ special teams stink – 30th or worse in punt return, kick return and kick coverage.
Key injuries: LG Liam Eichenberg hasn’t played since Game 8 because of an MCL injury, and LT Terron Armstead sustained a pectoral injury last week against Houston.
Number to know: The Dolphins lead the league in yards per pass attempt, 8.49, a key indicator of big plays.
Final prediction: 11-6 (second place). The Dolphins will lose to San Francisco and the Bills over the next three weeks, but qualify as a wild-card club and a dangerous one. The Dolphins, led by terrific first-year coach Mike McDaniel, are here to stay.

N.Y. Jets
Record:
7-4
Best win: Week 9 over Bills (20-17).
Worst loss: Week 8 to New England (22-17).
Remaining schedule: at Minnesota (Sunday), at Buffalo (Dec. 11), vs. Detroit (Dec. 18), vs. Jacksonville (Dec. 22), at Seattle (Jan. 1) and at Miami (Jan. 8).
Reasons for optimism: Zach Wilson is no longer the Jets’ quarterback. The second overall pick in 2021, he was benched last week and Mike White was lights out in a win over Chicago (315 yards, three touchdowns). … The defense, led by DL Quinnen Williams, is top 10 in several categories, including yards (308.8), passing yards (197.5) and red zone (51.3%). … The Jets’ 34 sacks are seventh-most.
Reasons for concern: Up until last week, the Jets couldn’t score and they still don’t have enough offense to contend. They are currently 29th in scoring (17.8), fifth-to-last in 25-yard passes (16) and fourth-worst on third down (34.4%).
Key injuries: Rookie RB Breece Hall tore his ACL in a late October win at Denver. … RB Michael Carter (ankle) was injured last week. … Seven players on defense have started all 11 games.
Number to know: The Jets have been outscored 84-33 in the fourth quarter.
Final prediction: 9-8 (third place). The next two weeks will end the Jets’ division title hopes and put a dent in their wild-card chances. Still, the Jets have their first winning season since 2015 and must figure out what to do with Wilson.

New England
Record:
6-6.
Best win: Week 11 over New York Jets (10-3).
Worst loss: Week 7 to Chicago (33-14).
Remaining schedule: at Arizona (Dec. 12), at Las Vegas (Dec. 18), vs. Cincinnati (Dec. 24), vs. Miami (Jan. 1) and at Bills (Jan. 8).
Reasons for optimism: After watching the Patriots flail away against the Bills on Thursday night, no reasons for optimism. … QB Mac Jones’ sideline rant during the Bills game about throwing downfield should earn him points in the locker room because a) it’s true and b) somebody had to say it. … The defense ranks ninth in scoring (18.8 points per game) and are second in sacks (39). But a pass rush can’t carry a team that doesn’t consistently have a lead.
Reasons for concern: The Patriots don’t have a running game (26th in yards per carry at 4.04) and are terrible on third down (27th, 36.2%). … Jones has regressed statistically, but is it really his fault? (I say no).
Key injuries: The Patriots have started four right tackles and DL Christian Barmore (knee) has missed the last three games.
Number to know: The Patriots’ are 31st in red zone offense (37.5% touchdowns).
Final prediction: 7-10 (fourth place). The Patriots are just about done and even if they head west to beat the Cardinals and Raiders in consecutive weeks, they don’t have a playoff look. A fascinating offseason coming up for coach Bill Belichick, who has to figure out if having a former defensive coach (Matt Patricia) calling the offensive plays and a former special teams coach (Joe Judge) coaching the quarterbacks makes any kind of sense.
 
I call bullshit on where the Patriots and Jets finish. The Patriots will finish above the Jets. We have the tie breaker on them, if needed.
Bold prediction: Neither the Bills or the Chiefs will win the AFC championship.
 
New England
Record:
6-6.
Best win: Week 11 over New York Jets (10-3).
Worst loss: Week 7 to Chicago (33-14).
Remaining schedule: at Arizona (Dec. 12), at Las Vegas (Dec. 18), vs. Cincinnati (Dec. 24), vs. Miami (Jan. 1) and at Bills (Jan. 8).
Reasons for optimism: After watching the Patriots flail away against the Bills on Thursday night, no reasons for optimism. … QB Mac Jones’ sideline rant during the Bills game about throwing downfield should earn him points in the locker room because a) it’s true and b) somebody had to say it. … The defense ranks ninth in scoring (18.8 points per game) and are second in sacks (39). But a pass rush can’t carry a team that doesn’t consistently have a lead.
Reasons for concern: The Patriots don’t have a running game (26th in yards per carry at 4.04) and are terrible on third down (27th, 36.2%). … Jones has regressed statistically, but is it really his fault? (I say no).
Key injuries:
The Patriots have started four right tackles and DL Christian Barmore (knee) has missed the last three games.
Number to know: The Patriots’ are 31st in red zone offense (37.5% touchdowns).
Final prediction: 7-10 (fourth place). The Patriots are just about done and even if they head west to beat the Cardinals and Raiders in consecutive weeks, they don’t have a playoff look. A fascinating offseason coming up for coach Bill Belichick, who has to figure out if having a former defensive coach (Matt Patricia) calling the offensive plays and a former special teams coach (Joe Judge) coaching the quarterbacks makes any kind of sense.

Everybody sees what we're seeing. Patricia and Judge have failed. Mac is frustrated same as we are. Josh is missed more than I thought he'd be missed. I can't say with certainty
Bill O'Brien would be a huge help or even an upgrade anywhere close to Josh's level. BO'B will be looking for more than an OC job.

8-9 is what I predicted in preseason. I'm sticking with it.
 
I think the Pats finish 8-9. Probably still last place behind Jete but not sure how tough Jete's schedule is to end the season.
 
I call bullshit on where the Patriots and Jets finish. The Patriots will finish above the Jets. We have the tie breaker on them, if needed.
Bold prediction: Neither the Bills or the Chiefs will win the AFC championship.
That is pretty bold. Who you got? Bengals again?
 
It's possible. I still say the Bills though.
Yeah. I think the Bills too but if the Bengals do get back to the conf. championship I would not bet against Burrow.
 
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