DropKickFlutie
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In some free moments during the quiet part of the NFL off-season, I have put some thought into why the Patriots keep over-stacking similar players who are seemingly strong safeties or small nickel linebackers. On the roster right now the Patriots have spent repeated draft capital or free agency resources for Mapu (220lbs), Dugger (220lbs), Phillips (210lbs), and Peppers (210lbs). What is going on? I have a couple references listed at the end to support some of the thinking that follows.
Under the assumption that Bill Belichick continues to be a smart bastahd, I offer up a couple hypotheses:
1. The modern NFL nickel defense is overwhelmingly the new Base Defense in the NFL.
2. The modern NFL nickel defense continues to transform the importance of the Modern Nickelback, as well as the Nickel Linebacker positions.
3. With DMac gone, the Patriots may make a big shift from 1-high to 2-high defense (this is just my conjecture).
The Modern NFL Nickel Defense is overwhelmingly the new Base Defense in the NFL
Some facts:
The Modern NFL Nickel Defense continues to transform the importance of the Modern Nickelback, as well as the Nickel Linebacker positions
In 2022 Bill Parcells wrote an article about the NFL Modern Nickelback and how different it is compared to even the early 2000's or 2010's. As Parcells describes, the modern nickel in a 4-2-5 defense needs to have "an extraordinary skill set. He has to be more versatile than the modern corner...the modern nickel back has got to have the ability to not only run support but also to cover these high-powered inside WRs or TEs...the nickel back is more of a versatile guy with good size. He’s strong, and he has speed...He must have the ability to cover, tackle, be physical, and be a good run support man, and yet he still must be able to run with speed receivers". Interestingly, a lot of the examples Parcells cites as good modern nickelbacks, I see as elite strong safety type players.
The Patriots may make a major shift from 1-high to 2-high defense
Across the NFL, the last few years have had the least amount of 1-high defense in NFL history. All these explosive passing attacks have led defensive coordinators to deploy more situations with 2 deep safeties to protect the deep field.
The retirement of DMac may herald a major change in the defense. 1-high used to be a Patriot mainstay, Man press cover-1 (1-high free safety) and the team won a lot of championship rings via this style. While the Patriots will likely still play plenty of man press defense especially with the addition of Christian Gonzalez, it is possible the Pats might play more 2-high defense.
Another recent trend in the league is NFL offenses have thrown the most screen passes to slot WRs in history over the last few recent seasons. When a defense plays 2-high, it puts even more pressure on the 2 linebackers in a nickel defense to be extremely fast. In short, the quick horizontal passing game puts a lot of pressure on the Mike linebacker who needs to be fast and can run quickly and tackle in space. Think of multi-time Pro Bowl fast linebackers like Fred Warner or Shaquille Leonard who pile up 120+ tackles a year. For people who want to think about more in-depth situations (Poach, Skate, Buzz) involving the backside safety or will linebacker, I've included a link below for more in-depth discussion.
In summary, modern nickel is the overwhelming new base defense and it requires special skill sets to play modern nickelback and nickel linebacker spots. These players oftentimes resemble big, fast, strong safety types who have size, speed, can tackle, and also cover (an extremely rare combination). Specific to the Patriots, they might be going through a major shift to 2-high defense, and there are interesting questions about who will play Modern Nickelback, who plays Nickel Linebacker, as well as who plays Strong Safety. It will be some combination of Mapu, Dugger, Phillips, and Pepper. This is why I think the Pats keep spending draft or free agency capital here, to bolster an elite nickel 2-high man-cover defense.
Links below:
www.pff.com
www.the33rdteam.com
www.footballoutsiders.com
Under the assumption that Bill Belichick continues to be a smart bastahd, I offer up a couple hypotheses:
1. The modern NFL nickel defense is overwhelmingly the new Base Defense in the NFL.
2. The modern NFL nickel defense continues to transform the importance of the Modern Nickelback, as well as the Nickel Linebacker positions.
3. With DMac gone, the Patriots may make a big shift from 1-high to 2-high defense (this is just my conjecture).
The Modern NFL Nickel Defense is overwhelmingly the new Base Defense in the NFL
Some facts:
- Nickel defense is played over half of the time across the NFL now, and including dime, there are now 5 defensive backs on the field about 80% of the time. Base defense is played less than 24% of the time (involving 3 or 4 linebackers on the field depending on what is considered 'base').
- Specific to the Patriots, they play base defense even more sparingly, only 11% of the time. They play a whopping 88% of snaps with 5 defensive backs on the field (66% nickel, 22% dime).
The Modern NFL Nickel Defense continues to transform the importance of the Modern Nickelback, as well as the Nickel Linebacker positions
In 2022 Bill Parcells wrote an article about the NFL Modern Nickelback and how different it is compared to even the early 2000's or 2010's. As Parcells describes, the modern nickel in a 4-2-5 defense needs to have "an extraordinary skill set. He has to be more versatile than the modern corner...the modern nickel back has got to have the ability to not only run support but also to cover these high-powered inside WRs or TEs...the nickel back is more of a versatile guy with good size. He’s strong, and he has speed...He must have the ability to cover, tackle, be physical, and be a good run support man, and yet he still must be able to run with speed receivers". Interestingly, a lot of the examples Parcells cites as good modern nickelbacks, I see as elite strong safety type players.
The Patriots may make a major shift from 1-high to 2-high defense
Across the NFL, the last few years have had the least amount of 1-high defense in NFL history. All these explosive passing attacks have led defensive coordinators to deploy more situations with 2 deep safeties to protect the deep field.
The retirement of DMac may herald a major change in the defense. 1-high used to be a Patriot mainstay, Man press cover-1 (1-high free safety) and the team won a lot of championship rings via this style. While the Patriots will likely still play plenty of man press defense especially with the addition of Christian Gonzalez, it is possible the Pats might play more 2-high defense.
Another recent trend in the league is NFL offenses have thrown the most screen passes to slot WRs in history over the last few recent seasons. When a defense plays 2-high, it puts even more pressure on the 2 linebackers in a nickel defense to be extremely fast. In short, the quick horizontal passing game puts a lot of pressure on the Mike linebacker who needs to be fast and can run quickly and tackle in space. Think of multi-time Pro Bowl fast linebackers like Fred Warner or Shaquille Leonard who pile up 120+ tackles a year. For people who want to think about more in-depth situations (Poach, Skate, Buzz) involving the backside safety or will linebacker, I've included a link below for more in-depth discussion.
In summary, modern nickel is the overwhelming new base defense and it requires special skill sets to play modern nickelback and nickel linebacker spots. These players oftentimes resemble big, fast, strong safety types who have size, speed, can tackle, and also cover (an extremely rare combination). Specific to the Patriots, they might be going through a major shift to 2-high defense, and there are interesting questions about who will play Modern Nickelback, who plays Nickel Linebacker, as well as who plays Strong Safety. It will be some combination of Mapu, Dugger, Phillips, and Pepper. This is why I think the Pats keep spending draft or free agency capital here, to bolster an elite nickel 2-high man-cover defense.
Links below:
Galina: How modern football has transformed the linebacker position | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF
As offenses continue to trot out better and better athletes, defenses have been forced to adapt how their linebackers play.
www.pff.com
The ‘Modern Nickel Back’ is the Most Important Defensive Position
As NFL passing attacks have evolved, so too, has the modern nickel back position. Hall of Fame coach Bill Parcells breaks down that evolution
www.the33rdteam.com
2021 Defensive Personnel: Cowboys and Bills Abandon the Base
Our annual look at defensive personnel checks on Dan Quinn abandoning the base, the effects of Matt Milano on the Buffalo defense, and whether Pete Carroll is secretly still a defensive genius.
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