mayoclinic
Sith Apprentice
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As previously with Defense and with Special Teams, this thread looks at the offensive units for the Pats and the overall prognosis.
I. Offensive Units
QB
It starts and ends with Tom Brady. Brady was uncharacteristically erratic in 2009 despite posting good numbers overall. His accuracy, red zone execution and decision making were very uneven, and his numbers were bolstered by big games against Tennessee, Tampa Bay and Jacksonville. Many people expected Brady to step onto the field in 2009 in mid-2007 form, and that just wasn't realistic. He's now had a full season and off-season to recover, and despite concerns about his west coach training program he should be much better in 2010. He also had to adjust to a new offensive coordinator in 2009, and should be more comfortable this year.
Brian Hoyer looked adequate as a backup last year, after Kevin O'Connell was unexpectedly cut in training camp. 7th round pick Zac Robinson was considered a steal by some, drawing comparisons to Rich Gannon, among others.
Overall prognosis: As long as Brady is healthy it's very good. Even in an off year Brady was one of the better QB's in the league, and I think there's a good chance he will be significantly improved in 2010. I wouldn't expect 2007 numbers - nor do I think those are necessarily good - but I think his accuracy, decision making, red zone execution and confidence will all be significantly better than in 2009.
RB
The unit appears essentially unchanged from 2010, unless UDFA rookie Pat Paschall manages to unseat BenJarvus Green-Ellis as the 5th RB. Carrying 5 RBs again is likely given the age and attrition at the position. The Pats are unique in carrying 3 RBs over age 33 (geriatric for a running back). 3 players (Maroney, Morris and Taylor) are in their contract years. Despite Taylor and Morris missing most of the season to injury last year the Pats had 3 rushers with over 300 yards (almost 4, with Taylor falling just short because of injury) and over 1900 yards rushing (120 YPG average). Kevin Faulk was a bright light on a somewhat maligned unit.
Overall prognosis: Bleh. The Pats did not seem terribly committed to the running game in 2009, often abandoning it for no apparent reason after running the ball effectively early on. Maroney showed signs of having his best season but then had a case of fumbleitis, and was benched towards the end of the season. Age and injury concerns are a big question mark for the unit. The unit performed better than many exected and is perhaps capable of still more if the coaching staff commits to running the ball, but it is clearly one of the bigger question marks on offense. The failure to address the unit in the offseason or draft left many perplexed.
WR
Randy Moss is back for a 4th season at #1 WR, and is in a contract year. Moss played injured much of 2009 and was somewhat absent at time, while still putting up pro bowl numbers. Wes Welker was a huge loss at the end of 2009 but appears to be progressing much faster than expected in his recovery. He is likely to start the season on PUP, but could still be a significant factor in 2009. Second year man Julian Edelman proved to be a good understudy to Welker at the slot in 2009, and should be capable in his absence. Veteran Torry Holt brings maturity and leadership to the position, and a reputation for crisp route running which was notably absent last year with the ill-fated Joey Galloway. Brandon Tate was essentially on IR in 2009, but appears healthy and has been singled out by Brady this Spring for his route running. Rookie Taylor Price is raw but has huge upside at the position. Sam Aiken showed flashes of talent in 2009, and is a leader on special teams. And former Pat David Patten comes back for one more try at the roster. He has the benefit of speed and comfort with Brady, who has praised him several times this Spring.
Overall prognosis: Better than many think. Despite the injury to Welker, it's quite possibly the deepest and most talented WR unit ever under BB. The 2009 team had little other than Moss and Welker/Edelman at the slot, who accounted for over 62% of receptions (243/390), 64% of passing TDs (18/28) and 65% of passing yards (2971/4540). There was minimal productivity from the other WRs or from the TE position, with running backs accounting for the majority of the additional passing receptions (74) and yardage (708). This made the passing offense often predictable, and allowed defenses to hone in on stopping Moss and Welker. Even with Welker injuryed 2010 offers a large number of new targets in Holt, Tate and Price, plus multiple targets at TE (see below). Matt Williamson from Scouts Inc. has identified the Pats as one of the teams which he believes will be markedly improved in the receiving area:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/news/story?id=5215473
TE
This position has been completely rebuilt. Ben Watson and Chris Baker are gone, with their 43 catches for 546 yards and 7 TDs between them. Veteran Algy Crumpler is a tenacious blocker and was once a terrific receiving weapon. Rookies Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez offer more potential at the position than we've had since 2004.
Over prognosis: Very optimistic. The picture was somewhat gloomy heading into the 2010 draft, but BB and the FO pulled off a coup in snagging both Gronkowski and Hernandez, who should complement each other well. Either of them could exceed the total productivity of the TE unit from 2009. Gronkowski and Crumpler should markedly improve the unit's blocking and red zone productivity. Hernandez offers a stretch-the-field presence and should also be effectively operating out of the slot, and the capability to create mismatches that we haven't had before.
OT
This unit will probably be unchanged from 2010, with Matt Light, Sebastian Vollmer, Nick Kaczur and Mark LeVoir likely to be the 4 guys on the final 53. Rookie Thomas Welch and second year man George Bussey appear destined for PUP/IR or the PS, unless they shows a lot in training camp and/or someone is injured or traded. The big question is who will start, with the most likely combination being Light at LT and Vollmer at RT. It's also possible that one of Light or Kaczur could be moved inside to guard, as could Bussey.
Overall prognosis: Fairly good. Vollmer was a revelation last year and shows signs of being a pro bowl caliber player at either RT or LT. He is a major upgrade from Nick Kaczur, who was adequate but not exceptional as a starter. Kaczur, LeVoir and Welch offer great versatility and depth. Finding a long term starter to pair with Vollmer is an issue, but not so much for 2010. In 2009 the unit has banged up, with all 3 starters missing significant injury time. Hopefully the unit will be a bit healthier and more stable in 2010.
OG/C
Overall prognosis: Questionable. Along with RB this is the biggest question mark on the offense. Logan Mankins was the most consistent performer on the OL in 2009, and is currently looking for a long term contract. He is holding out from OTAs, and it remains to be seen whether this could lead to a long term holdout reminiscent of the Deion Branch fiasco in 2006. Stephen Neal is exceptional when healthy but is aging and has not played a full season in several years. Dan Koppen is a find tactician and field general but struggles against bigger NTs. Dan Connolly was adequate as a backup in 2009 but is questionable as a long-term starter. Behind them are a host of inexperienced and unproven guys: Ryan Wendell, George Bussey, Rich Ohnrberger and Spencer Larsen. We will need one or more of these guys to step up in a big way if there are injuries or if Mankins' situation is not resolved.
II. Offensive Prognosis
Many people had unrealistic expectations for the 2009 offense, expecting a reprise of 2007: 35+ PPG, with Brady throwing for TDs at a record pace. That didn't happen for a number of reasons:
1. Brady was still recovering from injury and was not up to his 2007 form.
2. The Pats didn't have adequate options after Moss and Welker, allowing teams to focus on stopping them.
3. Defenses have adjusted to the spread offense, and we will probably never see the kind of offensive blitzkrieg that we saw in the first half of 2007.
The offense performed respectably, finishing in third in YPG with 397.3 and 6th in PPG at 26.7. But the rushing game was notably absent at times, the offense seemed very predictable with Brady operating out of the spread most of the time and focusing on Moss and Welker. Red zone execution was poor, leaving a host of points off the board. The offense disappeared in the second half of many games, and was unable to score when it had to.
Much of the blame was attributed to new de-facto OC Bill O'Brien, or to Brady. Hopefully both will be better in 2010. Brady has had a full year to recover from his knee injury and get his timing and confidence back. O'Brien will hopefully be a bit more imaginative in his playcalling this time around - even Josh McDaniels struggled as OC his first year. And the Pats have more weapons on offense than they have probably ever had, suggesting that they are going to adopt the philosophy which led New Orleans to the Super Bowl in 2009 - throw too many weapons out there for the other team to cover.
IF Brady recovers his form, IF he gets comfortable with all his new toys, IF the coaching staff mixes things up more effectively, and IF the OL holds up, then this offense could be special. The worst case scenario is probably still an improvement over 2009, which wasn't terribly bad by most teams' standards.
I'm hoping for 28-32 PPG with better passing/running balance, better ball distribution and better red zone efficiency. That, combined with an expected improvement on defense, should put us in much stronger shape than in 2009.
I. Offensive Units
QB
It starts and ends with Tom Brady. Brady was uncharacteristically erratic in 2009 despite posting good numbers overall. His accuracy, red zone execution and decision making were very uneven, and his numbers were bolstered by big games against Tennessee, Tampa Bay and Jacksonville. Many people expected Brady to step onto the field in 2009 in mid-2007 form, and that just wasn't realistic. He's now had a full season and off-season to recover, and despite concerns about his west coach training program he should be much better in 2010. He also had to adjust to a new offensive coordinator in 2009, and should be more comfortable this year.
Brian Hoyer looked adequate as a backup last year, after Kevin O'Connell was unexpectedly cut in training camp. 7th round pick Zac Robinson was considered a steal by some, drawing comparisons to Rich Gannon, among others.
Overall prognosis: As long as Brady is healthy it's very good. Even in an off year Brady was one of the better QB's in the league, and I think there's a good chance he will be significantly improved in 2010. I wouldn't expect 2007 numbers - nor do I think those are necessarily good - but I think his accuracy, decision making, red zone execution and confidence will all be significantly better than in 2009.
RB
The unit appears essentially unchanged from 2010, unless UDFA rookie Pat Paschall manages to unseat BenJarvus Green-Ellis as the 5th RB. Carrying 5 RBs again is likely given the age and attrition at the position. The Pats are unique in carrying 3 RBs over age 33 (geriatric for a running back). 3 players (Maroney, Morris and Taylor) are in their contract years. Despite Taylor and Morris missing most of the season to injury last year the Pats had 3 rushers with over 300 yards (almost 4, with Taylor falling just short because of injury) and over 1900 yards rushing (120 YPG average). Kevin Faulk was a bright light on a somewhat maligned unit.
Overall prognosis: Bleh. The Pats did not seem terribly committed to the running game in 2009, often abandoning it for no apparent reason after running the ball effectively early on. Maroney showed signs of having his best season but then had a case of fumbleitis, and was benched towards the end of the season. Age and injury concerns are a big question mark for the unit. The unit performed better than many exected and is perhaps capable of still more if the coaching staff commits to running the ball, but it is clearly one of the bigger question marks on offense. The failure to address the unit in the offseason or draft left many perplexed.
WR
Randy Moss is back for a 4th season at #1 WR, and is in a contract year. Moss played injured much of 2009 and was somewhat absent at time, while still putting up pro bowl numbers. Wes Welker was a huge loss at the end of 2009 but appears to be progressing much faster than expected in his recovery. He is likely to start the season on PUP, but could still be a significant factor in 2009. Second year man Julian Edelman proved to be a good understudy to Welker at the slot in 2009, and should be capable in his absence. Veteran Torry Holt brings maturity and leadership to the position, and a reputation for crisp route running which was notably absent last year with the ill-fated Joey Galloway. Brandon Tate was essentially on IR in 2009, but appears healthy and has been singled out by Brady this Spring for his route running. Rookie Taylor Price is raw but has huge upside at the position. Sam Aiken showed flashes of talent in 2009, and is a leader on special teams. And former Pat David Patten comes back for one more try at the roster. He has the benefit of speed and comfort with Brady, who has praised him several times this Spring.
Overall prognosis: Better than many think. Despite the injury to Welker, it's quite possibly the deepest and most talented WR unit ever under BB. The 2009 team had little other than Moss and Welker/Edelman at the slot, who accounted for over 62% of receptions (243/390), 64% of passing TDs (18/28) and 65% of passing yards (2971/4540). There was minimal productivity from the other WRs or from the TE position, with running backs accounting for the majority of the additional passing receptions (74) and yardage (708). This made the passing offense often predictable, and allowed defenses to hone in on stopping Moss and Welker. Even with Welker injuryed 2010 offers a large number of new targets in Holt, Tate and Price, plus multiple targets at TE (see below). Matt Williamson from Scouts Inc. has identified the Pats as one of the teams which he believes will be markedly improved in the receiving area:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/news/story?id=5215473
TE
This position has been completely rebuilt. Ben Watson and Chris Baker are gone, with their 43 catches for 546 yards and 7 TDs between them. Veteran Algy Crumpler is a tenacious blocker and was once a terrific receiving weapon. Rookies Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez offer more potential at the position than we've had since 2004.
Over prognosis: Very optimistic. The picture was somewhat gloomy heading into the 2010 draft, but BB and the FO pulled off a coup in snagging both Gronkowski and Hernandez, who should complement each other well. Either of them could exceed the total productivity of the TE unit from 2009. Gronkowski and Crumpler should markedly improve the unit's blocking and red zone productivity. Hernandez offers a stretch-the-field presence and should also be effectively operating out of the slot, and the capability to create mismatches that we haven't had before.
OT
This unit will probably be unchanged from 2010, with Matt Light, Sebastian Vollmer, Nick Kaczur and Mark LeVoir likely to be the 4 guys on the final 53. Rookie Thomas Welch and second year man George Bussey appear destined for PUP/IR or the PS, unless they shows a lot in training camp and/or someone is injured or traded. The big question is who will start, with the most likely combination being Light at LT and Vollmer at RT. It's also possible that one of Light or Kaczur could be moved inside to guard, as could Bussey.
Overall prognosis: Fairly good. Vollmer was a revelation last year and shows signs of being a pro bowl caliber player at either RT or LT. He is a major upgrade from Nick Kaczur, who was adequate but not exceptional as a starter. Kaczur, LeVoir and Welch offer great versatility and depth. Finding a long term starter to pair with Vollmer is an issue, but not so much for 2010. In 2009 the unit has banged up, with all 3 starters missing significant injury time. Hopefully the unit will be a bit healthier and more stable in 2010.
OG/C
Overall prognosis: Questionable. Along with RB this is the biggest question mark on the offense. Logan Mankins was the most consistent performer on the OL in 2009, and is currently looking for a long term contract. He is holding out from OTAs, and it remains to be seen whether this could lead to a long term holdout reminiscent of the Deion Branch fiasco in 2006. Stephen Neal is exceptional when healthy but is aging and has not played a full season in several years. Dan Koppen is a find tactician and field general but struggles against bigger NTs. Dan Connolly was adequate as a backup in 2009 but is questionable as a long-term starter. Behind them are a host of inexperienced and unproven guys: Ryan Wendell, George Bussey, Rich Ohnrberger and Spencer Larsen. We will need one or more of these guys to step up in a big way if there are injuries or if Mankins' situation is not resolved.
II. Offensive Prognosis
Many people had unrealistic expectations for the 2009 offense, expecting a reprise of 2007: 35+ PPG, with Brady throwing for TDs at a record pace. That didn't happen for a number of reasons:
1. Brady was still recovering from injury and was not up to his 2007 form.
2. The Pats didn't have adequate options after Moss and Welker, allowing teams to focus on stopping them.
3. Defenses have adjusted to the spread offense, and we will probably never see the kind of offensive blitzkrieg that we saw in the first half of 2007.
The offense performed respectably, finishing in third in YPG with 397.3 and 6th in PPG at 26.7. But the rushing game was notably absent at times, the offense seemed very predictable with Brady operating out of the spread most of the time and focusing on Moss and Welker. Red zone execution was poor, leaving a host of points off the board. The offense disappeared in the second half of many games, and was unable to score when it had to.
Much of the blame was attributed to new de-facto OC Bill O'Brien, or to Brady. Hopefully both will be better in 2010. Brady has had a full year to recover from his knee injury and get his timing and confidence back. O'Brien will hopefully be a bit more imaginative in his playcalling this time around - even Josh McDaniels struggled as OC his first year. And the Pats have more weapons on offense than they have probably ever had, suggesting that they are going to adopt the philosophy which led New Orleans to the Super Bowl in 2009 - throw too many weapons out there for the other team to cover.
IF Brady recovers his form, IF he gets comfortable with all his new toys, IF the coaching staff mixes things up more effectively, and IF the OL holds up, then this offense could be special. The worst case scenario is probably still an improvement over 2009, which wasn't terribly bad by most teams' standards.
I'm hoping for 28-32 PPG with better passing/running balance, better ball distribution and better red zone efficiency. That, combined with an expected improvement on defense, should put us in much stronger shape than in 2009.
