New England needs radical changes to its back end. As Football Outsiders boss Aaron Schatz wrote in our
AFC Championship Game preview, the Patriots' pass defense improved after a midseason roster shuffle that put
Aqib Talib and
Alfonzo Dennard at cornerback and moved
Devin McCourty to safety. On Sunday, though, Talib was injured on the second series of the game. Ravens quarterback
Joe Flacco was 1-of-4 for 18 yards before Talib's injury, but for the rest of the first half he went 5-of-8 for 64 yards. Both teams made major adjustments at halftime. The Patriots, realizing that Talib would not be returning, and cognizant of the way Baltimore's
Torrey Smith had torched Denver's
Champ Bailey one week prior, switched to a very conservative zone scheme that left the middle of the field wide open. The Ravens, meanwhile, were well aware that Talib was out of the picture, and opened up the playbook and put the game in Flacco's hands.
In the first half, the Ravens had more runs (14) than passing plays (13), but they opened the second half with 25 passes and eight runs before adding 11 runs (and no passes) on their last two clock-killing drives. The Patriots' strategy slowed Flacco down, but they couldn't keep him out of the end zone. Flacco averaged only 10.6 yards per completion after halftime, but he also threw touchdowns on three straight drives.
Having a healthy Talib, if the Patriots choose to re-sign him, will help next season, but they can't be satisfied with that. As more teams use three wide receivers in their base offense, it's going to be critical that teams have at least three starting-caliber cornerbacks on their roster.
As long as the Patriots are fixing their pass defense, they could stand to patch up their pass offense as well. They scored the most points in the league this season, but they did it with efficiency, not explosiveness. They simply didn't have any receivers who could reliably make plays downfield. Counting defensive pass interference calls as completions, Brady was successful on only 35 percent of his deep passes (balls that traveled more than 15 yards in the air past the line of scrimmage) in 2012. There were 32 quarterbacks with at least 50 deep passes this season, and only two (Cleveland's
Brandon Weeden and Pittsburgh's
Ben Roethlisberger) were less accurate with the long ball.
Wes Welker (assuming he re-signs),
Brandon Lloyd and
Deion Branch will be a combined 98 years old next season. It's time for the Patriots to find some fresh legs and stretch the field.