Looking at the Patriots - 2021

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I'll just guess that Harry is an overlooked factor this week. Big, strong, can fight a defender for a ball. Hasn't got a lot of targets, yes he does a good job blocking but sooner or later J McD has to dial up a play for him.

Hey I could be totally wrong.....
 
DVOA dropped, it's actually a good and interesting article. Patriots are ranked 2nd, Bucs are 1st, Bills are 3rd.

www.footballoutsiders.com

DVOA Has Patriots Closing in on Bucs

The Patriots and Bills inch closer to Tampa Bay atop our DVOA ratings. Plus, why isn't Cincinnati higher, and have the Seahawks finally broken DVOA for good?
www.footballoutsiders.com www.footballoutsiders.com

NFL Week 12 - The Tampa Bay Buccaneers hold on to the top spot in our DVOA ratings after Week 12 of the 2021 NFL season, but the gap between the Bucs and the rest of the league got a lot tighter this week. New England and Buffalo both had huge games and the two AFC East rivals leap past Arizona and now rank second and third. New England even passes Tampa Bay to rank No. 1 in weighted DVOA, our metric which drops the weight of games from earlier in the season to get a better idea of how well teams are playing now.


New England coming out of Week 12 with the best single-game rating at 90.7% may be a big surprise if you remember how well the Titans were running all over the Patriots defense. But the Patriots had their second-best offensive game of the season, leading all NFL teams this week with 6.9 yards per play and no turnovers. The Patriots really turned it on in the fourth quarter when the offense needed to run clock to seal the victory while the defense was shutting Tennessee down for good. The Patriots went from 42.7% offensive DVOA and 10.1% defensive DVOA in the first three quarters to 104.1% offensive DVOA and -97.8% defensive DVOA in the fourth quarter! The fourth quarter defense featured an interception and two forced fumbles, although the Titans recovered one of those. Yes, Khari Blasingame's meaningless fumble in the final minute does count, though with less weight than usual because the Patriots were leading by over three touchdowns.


Buffalo coming out of Week 12 with the second-best single-game rating at 72.3% is less of a surprise if you subjected yourself to their game with New Orleans on Thanksgiving night. The Bills put up their second-best defensive performance of the season at -53.5%, although there's a small asterisk there because the Saints' opponent adjustments are based on half a season of Jameis Winston and half a season of Trevor Siemian. The Bills' big Thanksgiving game now gives them five different games this season with a single-game rating over 60%. The Patriots have three such games and no other team has more than two.


Buffalo's variance is now 44.5%, which is the highest we have ever tracked going back to 1983. Someone pointed out on Twitter a week ago that it's not necessarily proper to compare variance after Week 12 to full-season variance; the Week 12 numbers should be a little higher because it's a smaller sample size. That's true, but Buffalo's current DVOA variance is also higher than any DVOA variance ever just through Week 12. Look for an article going further into the most inconsistent teams in DVOA history over at ESPN+ next Monday.


Of course, that article is running Monday because the No. 2 Patriots visit the No. 3 Bills on Monday night in one of the biggest games of the season. We're going to see some real definition at the top of the DVOA ratings over the next few weeks. The Bills play three of their next four games against either the Patriots or the Buccaneers. The Patriots play two games against the Bills plus one against the No. 8 Indianapolis Colts. The Buccaneers... well, not every game can be this exciting. The Bills are the only top-10 team left on the remaining Tampa Bay schedule, which also includes games against the Saints, Falcons, Jets, and two against the Carolina Panthers.
Click to expand...

It goes on to discuss other, less relevant teams, good stuff all around, here's the DVOA figures for the top 5. I'm surprised, it's flipped from how I would have figured, they actually have the Bills with the slight edge on Def, and us with the slight edge on Off. ST of course it's not close. Either way, the rise over the last several weeks has been tremendous, week 5 if I recall correctly the Patriots were somewhere between 18th and 22nd by DVOA. As such the Patriots have easily been #1 by DVOA over the last 4-6 weeks, which is likely why the playoff projections and odds are what they are.

RK​
TEAM​
TOTAL
DVOA​
LAST
WEEK​
TOTAL
DAVE​
RANK​
W-L​
OFF.
DVOA​
OFF.
RANK​
DEF.
DVOA​
DEF.
RANK​
S.T.
DVOA​
S.T.
RANK​
1TB
30.8%​
1​
28.9%​
2​
8-3​
26.0%​
1​
-6.2%​
6​
-1.5%​
24​
2NE
28.5%​
3​
33.1%​
1​
8-4​
7.4%​
11​
-17.8%​
2​
3.4%​
3​
3BUF
26.8%​
5​
22.1%​
3​
7-4​
3.2%​
16​
-22.5%​
1​
1.0%​
14​
4ARI
21.7%​
2​
15.3%​
5​
9-2​
8.1%​
10​
-12.5%​
3​
1.1%​
13​
5DAL
21.7%​
4​
17.0%​
4​
7-4​
10.0%​
7​
-9.7%​
4​
1.9%​
10​
 
Giant Octopodes said:
DVOA dropped, it's actually a good and interesting article. Patriots are ranked 2nd, Bucs are 1st, Bills are 3rd.

www.footballoutsiders.com

DVOA Has Patriots Closing in on Bucs

The Patriots and Bills inch closer to Tampa Bay atop our DVOA ratings. Plus, why isn't Cincinnati higher, and have the Seahawks finally broken DVOA for good?
www.footballoutsiders.com www.footballoutsiders.com



It goes on to discuss other, less relevant teams, good stuff all around, here's the DVOA figures for the top 5. I'm surprised, it's flipped from how I would have figured, they actually have the Bills with the slight edge on Def, and us with the slight edge on Off. ST of course it's not close. Either way, the rise over the last several weeks has been tremendous, week 5 if I recall correctly the Patriots were somewhere between 18th and 22nd by DVOA. As such the Patriots have easily been #1 by DVOA over the last 4-6 weeks, which is likely why the playoff projections and odds are what they are.

RK​
TEAM​
TOTAL
DVOA​
LAST
WEEK​
TOTAL
DAVE​
RANK​
W-L​
OFF.
DVOA​
OFF.
RANK​
DEF.
DVOA​
DEF.
RANK​
S.T.
DVOA​
S.T.
RANK​
1TB
30.8%​
1​
28.9%​
2​
8-3​
26.0%​
1​
-6.2%​
6​
-1.5%​
24​
2NE
28.5%​
3​
33.1%​
1​
8-4​
7.4%​
11​
-17.8%​
2​
3.4%​
3​
3BUF
26.8%​
5​
22.1%​
3​
7-4​
3.2%​
16​
-22.5%​
1​
1.0%​
14​
4ARI
21.7%​
2​
15.3%​
5​
9-2​
8.1%​
10​
-12.5%​
3​
1.1%​
13​
5DAL
21.7%​
4​
17.0%​
4​
7-4​
10.0%​
7​
-9.7%​
4​
1.9%​
10​
Click to expand...


View: https://twitter.com/ezlazar/status/1465666936029724680
 
TommyD420 said:
Pay that man.
Click to expand...
LOL @ "Emerson Walls"

It's Everson Walls.

What's interesting about this list is those names came before the Goodell Cheating Era with the rule changes to favor offenses. It's harder today to play defense than it was pre 2006. Sherman is the only guy who is in the discussion with Jackson in the last 15 years.
 
TommyD420 said:
Pay that man.
Click to expand...
I'm sure they can get creative but the Pats have like 26mil in space next year with 7 UFA's that play 50%+ snaps which doesn't include Bolden, JWhite, TBrown, or Folk who are also UFA. That's a lot of shoes to fill. Meyers is an RFA too, I can see him wanting to get a big raise.

I am by far and away no cap expert.
 
Last edited:
TommyD420 said:
Pay that man.
Click to expand...
Pay Me GIF
 
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