Looking at the Patriots - 2021

there is also the ped history with jones's brother to consider. knowing how the nfl has always gone after the pats for anything they could even if it meant making shit up, i could see BB thinking that moving on from Jones might be better than risking another "gate"

so jones had a number of things going against him:

cap cost - keep jones or hightower plus cap for other players plus a 2nd rd pick in a draft where they didn't have a first because of bull shit.
history of late season productivity drop
stat collector against the weak but vanished against the good teams
the synthetic mj incident during the playoffs
family history of ped's
 
there is also the ped history with jones's brother to consider. knowing how the nfl has always gone after the pats for anything they could even if it meant making shit up, i could see BB thinking that moving on from Jones might be better than risking another "gate"

so jones had a number of things going against him:

cap cost - keep jones or hightower plus cap for other players plus a 2nd rd pick in a draft where they didn't have a first because of bull shit.
history of late season productivity drop
stat collector against the weak but vanished against the good teams
the synthetic mj incident during the playoffs
family history of ped's
Jon loves his cocaine...
 
I was listening to Bedard yesterday and had a really interesting take on the Patriots since the end of 2019 (link is below).

The Patriots are 4-9 in one possession games since Thanksgiving of 2019. Their overall record is 9-14. In Bedard's opinion, this is because the defense has declined since Flores left after the 2018 season. He said Bill's son and Mayo have not done a good enough job coaching especially in close games.

It's interesting that all of us, myself included have been so focused on the Qb that we may have missed the most obvious - the defense has been poorly coached. Bedard talked specifically how awful our defensive strategy was on the final drive slant pass play not having Jones out there. He also mentioned how Flores knew that by bringing pressure it would make Jones check down and then all Miami had to do was wrap up the runner. So basically his feel was that we were outcoached.

He also mentioned that the offense is not dynamic enough, something I have been saying since the draft. We just don't have explosive guys that can get you chunk plays so having these long 12-14 plays is just begging for a penalty or a turnover. The margin for error is razor thin. Our 8 penalties is the most penalties than we had any game last year. I think speaks to all the new players from FAs to the rookies. So many new guys who came from other systems trying to learn ours.

Here is the full segment, The Patriots Play in Close Games // 10 Questions with Greg Bedard // Patriots-Jets Preview - 9/14 (Hour 2)
 
I was listening to Bedard yesterday and had a really interesting take on the Patriots since the end of 2019 (link is below).

The Patriots are 4-9 in one possession games since Thanksgiving of 2019. Their overall record is 9-14. In Bedard's opinion, this is because the defense has declined since Flores left after the 2018 season. He said Bill's son and Mayo have not done a good enough job coaching especially in close games.

It's interesting that all of us, myself included have been so focused on the Qb that we may have missed the most obvious - the defense has been poorly coached. Bedard talked specifically how awful our defensive strategy was on the final drive slant pass play not having Jones out there. He also mentioned how Flores knew that by bringing pressure it would make Jones check down and then all Miami had to do was wrap up the runner. So basically his feel was that we were outcoached.

He also mentioned that the offense is not dynamic enough, something I have been saying since the draft. We just don't have explosive guys that can get you chunk plays so having these long 12-14 plays is just begging for a penalty or a turnover. The margin for error is razor thin. Our 8 penalties is the most penalties than we had any game last year. I think speaks to all the new players from FAs to the rookies. So many new guys who came from other systems trying to learn ours.

Here is the full segment, The Patriots Play in Close Games // 10 Questions with Greg Bedard // Patriots-Jets Preview - 9/14 (Hour 2)

Would you have preferred to have Jones on the field instead of Phillips with under 3 minutes to play and the defense needing to stop the run?

It’s obvious why they were playing a big nickel with Phillips in lieu of Jones at that point in the game.

I do think Flores is a really good coach and I wish he was still our DC.
 
Would you have preferred to have Jones on the field instead of Phillips with under 3 minutes to play and the defense needing to stop the run?

It’s obvious why they were playing a big nickel with Phillips in lieu of Jones at that point in the game.

I do think Flores is a really good coach and I wish he was still our DC.
I didn't realize the personnel until I listened to Bedard. It was 1st and 14 from the 5 yard line. I think everyone knew it was going to be a pass and Miami went to their bread and butter slant play that they ran a few times and we never stopped. I agree with Bedard that Jones should have been in there but we played so far off of Parker and I don't know why. I do agree it was coaching on that sequence. I think what was more frustrating to me is after that play, we knew the Fins would run the clock and we could not stop the run at all. They ran the clock out on us. I think that probably speaks more to the interior of our Dline not being good enough which was the most surprising part of the game to me given how much we upgraded our D and Miami's Oline not being very good.

One other thing Bedard said was that he felt our front 7 was really slow. He said that is why Phillips was brought up into the box in the second half. That also makes me nervous as we play some really good offenses after the Jets.
 
I was listening to Bedard yesterday and had a really interesting take on the Patriots since the end of 2019 (link is below).

The Patriots are 4-9 in one possession games since Thanksgiving of 2019. Their overall record is 9-14. In Bedard's opinion, this is because the defense has declined since Flores left after the 2018 season. He said Bill's son and Mayo have not done a good enough job coaching especially in close games.

It's interesting that all of us, myself included have been so focused on the Qb that we may have missed the most obvious - the defense has been poorly coached. Bedard talked specifically how awful our defensive strategy was on the final drive slant pass play not having Jones out there. He also mentioned how Flores knew that by bringing pressure it would make Jones check down and then all Miami had to do was wrap up the runner. So basically his feel was that we were outcoached.

He also mentioned that the offense is not dynamic enough, something I have been saying since the draft. We just don't have explosive guys that can get you chunk plays so having these long 12-14 plays is just begging for a penalty or a turnover. The margin for error is razor thin. Our 8 penalties is the most penalties than we had any game last year. I think speaks to all the new players from FAs to the rookies. So many new guys who came from other systems trying to learn ours.

Here is the full segment, The Patriots Play in Close Games // 10 Questions with Greg Bedard // Patriots-Jets Preview - 9/14 (Hour 2)

How Kraft has been able to avoid reading you here and implementing your ingenious thoughts and ideas is beyond me. Clearly he is unaware of your prowess.

I suggest you go over to the stadium and tell him yourself (no, don't). He will listen and you owe it to him to tell him what he should do (no, he won't). If security gets in your way or otherwise prevents you from saving the team from certain destruction you should force your way past them and run to Krafts office (no, don't). If you are stopped (somehow) you should create of document containing all of your posts and mail it (plain envelope only) to Shank so that he can make your genius known in the Globe (yes, please do this).

Don't wait. Time is ticking and without you, the team is doomed to lose this week (and every week).

After Kraft fully implements your plans I am 100% positive that Brady will find a way to break his contract with the Bucs and come back to you....er, I mean...the Patriots and the earth will regain it's proper tilt and rotation. Side benefit is that global warming (or is it cooling?) will reverse and we all will live as a result.

Do you understand why this is so important now?

Go! Don't wait! Do not be stopped!!! (no, don't)

God Speed!!!
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*Please don't actually do this. If you could get to Kraft you would undeniably convince him, but he has too much security and you will fail. DON'T GO THERE.

Take it up with a professional instead. Department of Psychiatry
 
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I liked Flores a lot more than Fatty Matty. Miami hired a good coach.

I think the defense absolutely needs to get better at their job.
 
I was listening to Bedard yesterday and had a really interesting take on the Patriots since the end of 2019 (link is below).

The Patriots are 4-9 in one possession games since Thanksgiving of 2019. Their overall record is 9-14. In Bedard's opinion, this is because the defense has declined since Flores left after the 2018 season. He said Bill's son and Mayo have not done a good enough job coaching especially in close games.

It's interesting that all of us, myself included have been so focused on the Qb that we may have missed the most obvious - the defense has been poorly coached. Bedard talked specifically how awful our defensive strategy was on the final drive slant pass play not having Jones out there. He also mentioned how Flores knew that by bringing pressure it would make Jones check down and then all Miami had to do was wrap up the runner. So basically his feel was that we were outcoached.

He also mentioned that the offense is not dynamic enough, something I have been saying since the draft. We just don't have explosive guys that can get you chunk plays so having these long 12-14 plays is just begging for a penalty or a turnover. The margin for error is razor thin. Our 8 penalties is the most penalties than we had any game last year. I think speaks to all the new players from FAs to the rookies. So many new guys who came from other systems trying to learn ours.

Here is the full segment, The Patriots Play in Close Games // 10 Questions with Greg Bedard // Patriots-Jets Preview - 9/14 (Hour 2)

this is against my better judgement but here goes:

all off-season Chevss has made the point to you and this board that the D last year and the end of 2019 fell off a cliff(self evident to anybody with a clue) - you spent that time arguing that Cam was the issue.

now Bedard comes along and makes the exact same point except Bedard spins it as bad BB and suddenly its the greatest football insight you have ever heard of because it fits your confirmation bias.

are you ever going form your own opinions or is every point you ever make just the latest talking point from the poison pens of the media?

please just stop
 
this is against my better judgement but here goes:

all off-season Chevss has made the point to you and this board that the D last year and the end of 2019 fell off a cliff(self evident to anybody with a clue) - you spent that time arguing that Cam was the issue.

now Bedard comes along and makes the exact same point except Bedard spins it as bad BB and suddenly its the greatest football insight you have ever heard of because it fits your confirmation bias.

are you ever going form your own opinions or is every point you ever make just the latest talking point from the poison pens of the media?

please just stop
I said I found his take interesting as he was specifically citing one possession games since the end of 2019. I had no idea what our W-L record was in those games.

He then gave some specific examples of how he felt our coaching was inferior and he cited Steve B and Mayo. He did not mention Bill and neither did I. He specifically said the defense struggled when Flores left. He also mentioned how the personnel also deteriorated which IMO is just a big of an issue as our front 7 had gotten old and slow. This does not absolve the terrible QB play we got last year or the horrific personnel that both Brady and Cam had to play with either. But it does add another dimension to see how a team that was 10-1 after 11 games in 2019 has fallen to 9-14 since. As with anything, I don't think the answers to anything are simple especially when it comes to football which is why I posted what Bedard said. I know he is respected around here for his football insights even if he has gotten on the hot take train the past couple of seasons.

You do realize that you completed contradicted yourself when you said that all I did was argue Cam was the main issue last year (which I did) and then turn around and say I agree with Bedard when he said it was defensive coaching because it fits my confirmation bias. LOL. So which is it? Perhaps, you need to go back and read again what I posted.

And in terms of this line "are you ever going form your own opinions or is every point you ever make just the latest talking point from the poison pens of the media?" I have to say I LOL'd for a long time. As anyone on this board will tell you, I have my own opinions separate from anyone least of all the media.
 
I said I found his take interesting as he was specifically citing one possession games since the end of 2019. I had no idea what our W-L record was in those games.

He then gave some specific examples of how he felt our coaching was inferior and he cited Steve B and Mayo. He did not mention Bill and neither did I. He specifically said the defense struggled when Flores left. He also mentioned how the personnel also deteriorated which IMO is just a big of an issue as our front 7 had gotten old and slow. This does not absolve the terrible QB play we got last year or the horrific personnel that both Brady and Cam had to play with either. But it does add another dimension to see how a team that was 10-1 after 11 games in 2019 has fallen to 9-14 since.
Interesting. And we're focusing on just the one score games in this analysis. So it sounds like if it wasn't for bad coaching of the D, the 2020 Pat's would have won a few more games, then? Because THAT would mean that even in a year in a new system, with no preseason, a bad arm, and Covid, Cam would have led that team - which was a total wreck because of roster mismanagement irrespective of all the opt-outs and having nothing to do with paying off all the deferred money for TFB and AB, remember - to a tiebreaker for the playoffs.

So if that team is a playoff contender, I gotta asks ya which of the following is true:
1) Cam is maybe not so terrible, especially under last year's circumstances?
2) Maybe the state of the roster wasn't quite so horrific and Belichick the GM wasn't such a washout?
3) Maybe the defense wasn't a total horror show, but in the face of all the opt-outs and the poor offense forcing them to defend longer, they wore down by the end of the year and STILL managed to be pretty much average overall?

I'll go out on a limb and say that if the QB, roster, and defense are all terrible there's no way a team is even sniffing the playoffs. It's a long shot if even one of those things is true. So I'd say you have to pick 2 of the 3 above that you agree with.
...

You do realize that you completed contradicted yourself when you said that all I did was argue Cam was the main issue last year (which I did) and then turn around and say I agree with Bedard when he said it was defensive coaching because it fits my confirmation bias. LOL. So which is it? Perhaps, you need to go back and read again what I posted.
I didn't see a contradiction at all. You absolutely have been putting it all on Cam, and you did just sat that you agreed with Bedard. He pointed out - correctly - that you loudly insisted you were right about the Cam thing UNTIL someone had another take that you can structure as an attack on BB. Then you're all in.

I'm here to point out that if you believe this to be true, than it lifts some of the blame from Cam's shoulders. And after all, they were only 7-9. It isn't like they were a 2 win team. So with the defense taking some of the blame, that would make Cam's performance almost playoff-caliber! With that horrific roster, in the face of all the other well-discussed obstacles, that's...practically heroic!

Or maybe the rest of the roster wasn't mismanaged quite as badly as you make it out, especially given the league-high number of opt-outs? I'll leave the salary cap out of it, since that's a fake restriction...
 
Nah, not could have. Harris hangs onto the ball there, where he lost it, it's game over.
Not quite. There was a lot of time on the clock. Likeliest scenario, IMO, was Pats score a FG (maybe a TD) and the 'Phins get it back with maybe 90-120 seconds to take a shot at it. At that point, momentum is against them, but it could go either way. I'd say if Harris doesn't fumble, there's...70-80% chance the Pats win.
 
Not quite. There was a lot of time on the clock. Likeliest scenario, IMO, was Pats score a FG (maybe a TD) and the 'Phins get it back with maybe 90-120 seconds to take a shot at it. At that point, momentum is against them, but it could go either way. I'd say if Harris doesn't fumble, there's...70-80% chance the Pats win.
A TD makes that 95% or more IMO.
 
Oh, I totally agree that Cam was terrible last year. I mean, basically as bad as Brady was in 2019, but looked worse doing it, and with less leadership and clutch play.

But that means that to go 7-9, the roster couldn't be quite as terrible as it was made out to be, especially considering the opt-outs
Sure. Last year was what it was - a big step back because they had to adjust to the loss of the GOAT QB, plus had to pay the piper for all the deferred cap hits (which they were right to defer, as they were trying to make the most of the remaining TFB window) even under the best circumstances, and those circumstances got pretty sub-optimal with all the opt-outs and no preseason.
The player's on one hand, and the coach's on the other. Because a coach's job isn't just game planning and play calling. It's player development, and working with the player to get the absolute most possible out of his talent.

It's like this. The coaches get all credit for gameplanning (well, players can get credit for their strenghts and talents in particular areas making some types of game plans possible) and some credit for execution as well - running crisp practices and player development. The converse is also true.
No.
No
Yes. It was a totally defensible play call, and I would call it good.
I never said it was a bad call. He traded some probability of success for the element of surprise. Defensible, probably less defensible against a Belichick-coached team.
The missing piece, though:
Do great coaches help make great players great? Do they put players in a better position to be better executors, and to leverage their strengths and hide their weaknesses?

You actually do hear blame go to the coaches when there is poor execution: That's a badly coached/undisciplined team. Right? When teams are racking up penalties? When they don't seem to have an understanding of the situation? When they are turning the ball over and making unforced errors? Especially when it isn't a single player or occurrence, but multiple players in a pattern over multiple games? You don't hear blame go to the coaches?
The GM primarily, and the coach for not clearly communicating his needs and uses for the players, and/or for not coaching them well. And the players for not being good enough/taking coaching well.
GM, assuming it's purely money - meaning structure of contracts, future cap planning, etc. But probably a combination of GM and coach's communication.
In Bill's case, he is the GM and coach. There can be player fault, certainly, but it falls on him. Has that happened? The worst I've seen for a team that he really "owned" was a single year barely below .500...
Um...Chung, HT, Cannon and LaCosse were all presumptive starters. One is the heart and soul of the defense. One retired following 2020. One we traded for value. One we spent through the nose to make sure we didn't need to rely on this year. And Brandon Bolden is a valuable member of the team, as well.

2nd most opt-outs in the NFL was 5. Only 2 teams had more than 3. The Patriots had 8. Put another way, out of all the opt-outs in the NFL, just shy of one out of every 8 was a Patriot. Or nearly 4x the league average. To make matters worse, HT and Chung both specialize in hardening the run D. Shockingly, that was the single biggest weakness last year.

It was a massive deal, and one that planning couldn't account for.

Separate question:
Would all those players have opted out if TFB had stayed? Probably not. But with the perfect storm of all those things - Brady leaving, the cap hit, the opt-outs, no preseason for a new QB who wasn't a system fit anyway...

...they were still just a game short of .500.
 
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