Looking at the Patriots - 2021

Someone here criticized and made fun of BB for his free spending in FA this past off season. I can't remember who.
Now the league's front offices are studying how he did it because it worked to set the Pats up for a few years of success.
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After 19 consecutive years above .500, head coach Bill Belichick and the Patriots hit rock bottom by their standards in 2020 with a 7-9 record. They were out of the playoffs for the first time since 2008. So they traveled an unconventional route to return to a familiar place, spending an historic amount in free agency to bandage their weaknesses and return to the postseason. They built a team with a model they so often used to mock — and one that has doomed some of their rival franchises.

Now that Belichick and the Patriots have shown the big-spending model can work, will it change the way teams view roster-building?

“They go against 20 years of their conventional model,” an agent said. “It’s a copycat league, and that’s the guy they tend to copy.”

The answer is truly shaded in gray. So many variables can color a team’s offseason roadmap — including salary cap space, recent draft performance and in-house free agents — and past teams have failed at catastrophic levels with significant splurges in free agency, to the point where even Patriots owner Robert Kraft acknowledged the risks with their plan.

The results have panned out. Even though the Patriots lost three of their final four regular-season games, they’re in the playoffs following a one-year hiatus and briefly held the AFC’s No. 1 seed in December. The roster overhaul is the reason why they improved to 10-7 in 2021.

“I think people will study (the Patriots’ offseason) to see why it was successful and then kind of come up with their own game plan,” a general manager observed.

New England missed the playoffs last season for the first time in a dozen years because quarterback Tom Brady departed in free agency, the defense lacked pass rushers and run stoppers and there were too many misses in the draft from 2017-19.

Even though Patriots executives and coaches admitted they used to laugh at teams that “won free agency,” they had no choice but to weaponize their $68 million in cap space. They signed 12 free agents from other teams with contracts that totaled $261.52 million, including $146.25 million guaranteed. Factoring in-house free agents, the Patriots’ combination of contracts amounted to $351.6 million with $193.9 million guaranteed.

The Patriots reeled in tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, wide receivers Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor, offensive linemen Trent Brown and Ted Karras, defensive lineman Davon Godchaux, linebackers Matt Judon and Kyle Van Noy and cornerback Jalen Mills. They also re-signed safety Devin McCourty, defensive linemen Deatrich Wise and Lawrence Guy and center David Andrews.

Not to be overlooked, the Patriots had a successful draft by picking quarterback Mac Jones, defensive tackle Christian Barmore and running back Rhamondre Stevenson.

“Quite honestly, they hit on all those guys,” former Patriots offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia said. “It’s paid off very nicely for them. Will people try to copy that? It’s a copycat league. But there’s a lot of pain that goes with paying guys a lot of money in free agency.”

The Patriots’ worst miss came in 2007 when linebacker Adalius Thomas secured a five-year, $35 million deal. The veterans quickly soured on Thomas when he monetized the team’s “humble pie” slogan on T-shirts, and he was a divisive locker-room figure in 2009 before his release. It provided a lesson in the unknown. A big contract can alter a player’s approach both on and off the field, and it might not even be intentional on the player’s behalf. Human nature can take control over time.

“How much does it change them?” Scarnecchia said. “Are they the same guys that you liked, then they got all that money and it changed them? There are a lot of highs and lows that go with it. I think everyone will do what the market bears for whatever motivations are put on people to spend a lot of money in free agency. We’re going to get better now, but that doesn’t always happen. It’s not always the answer. You’ve just got to do a really great job of scouting them, just as you do in the draft, to make sure you have all the information on these guys that gives you enough peace of mind to say, we’re going to give this guy a lot of money, and we think we’re going to get a lot back from this guy as a result.

“When you spend the kind of money that they did this past year, you better have a pretty good idea and better vet the guy pretty seriously to know what kind of problems or history this guy has. You don’t want a guy coming in, and then all of a sudden, ‘Oh my god, I didn’t know anything about that.’ You’ve got to make sure that you’re doing it the right way, get all the information, and talk to everybody who has dealt with this guy and make sure that this is the right kind of person that you’re bringing in. I think they do a good job of that, and I think a lot of people do, too. Sometimes, people just change.”

The Patriots haven’t been perfect in that regard, either, as they failed spectacularly with wide receiver Antonio Brown in 2019. He signed a contract with $10 million in guarantees, and his 11-day tenure included a civil lawsuit from a former trainer who accused him of rape and sexual assault along with accusations of harassing text messages to another woman. From a football perspective, the whiff exposed the Patriots’ lack of receiver depth and prevented them from addressing other needs at the trade deadline due to a shortage of cap space.

The Brown example highlights another risk with significant free-agent investments. Nine-figure splurges in free agency tend to follow a string of misses in the draft. If those mistakes are compounded, it’ll set a franchise back for several years. It can also lead to the firings of general managers and coaches, furthering the organizational instability.

Belichick likely has more job security than any coach in the league, so he could afford to take a risk that many others can’t.

“It’s a dangerous way to go,” the general manager said. “The difference is (the Patriots) know exactly what they need in their scheme offensively and defensively. Belichick knows exactly what he needs. He hasn’t always been great as far as drafting some positions. But going into it, if there’s one coach or personnel guy that you’d say you have confidence in spending that money, it’s them because they know exactly what they want to make their scheme work. Let’s say the Jets or some other teams try that. They may not have the same success, and it could set them back three or four years if they do it incorrectly.”

Belichick also has personnel control, which is important since his defense has consistently adapted to the league’s landscape. He doesn’t have to worry about the stability of his 3-4 base defense while the general manager signs 4-3 personnel. That’s a strangely common occurrence around the NFL.

“The problem is, (unsuccessful front offices) are grading players on a leaguewide scale. Bill Belichick is grading players on (his own scale),” an agent said.
 
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Organizational stability is imperative to sustainable success, and it starts at the top. Just take a glance at this week’s events with the Miami Dolphins, New York Giants, Chicago Bears and Jacksonville Jaguars, and the common denominator is apparent.

“There’s no chance — no chance, none whatsoever — you can look at the Jets, Giants, Jaguars, Lions and see them spending $200 million in free agency and winning next year,” an agent opined.

Belichick was also lauded for his penchant for signing cast-offs to fill specific roles on the Patriots. Safety Adrian Phillips is the latest example, as he was primarily a special teamer with the Chargers but has become a defensive staple in New England for two seasons and just signed a three-year extension.

Belichick also had no reservations over reacquiring Van Noy, Brown, Karras and linebacker Jamie Collins after they all took more money elsewhere in previous free agency periods. There are coaches around the league that have scoffed at reunions with former players.

“Getting Kyle Van Noy back, I mean fuck, who does that?” an agent said. “He gets cut after a year (with the Dolphins), and it’s not even a consideration for most teams to bring back that guy. Bill brings him back instantly. No other team or head coach or GM has the balls to do it.”

As the Patriots’ contracts mounted last spring, the graphics were blasted across various forms of media. They became the sixth team to guarantee $100 million in one free agency period, and the previous five didn’t win a playoff game. The 2020 Dolphins, 2019 Jets and 2018 Jets all missed the postseason, while the 2018 Bears and 2016 Giants lost in the wild-card round.

The sixth-seeded Patriots still have a major mountain to climb to break that trend, as they visit the No. 3 Buffalo Bills on Saturday night. The AFC East rivals split their regular-season meetings.

This game won’t solely validate the Patriots’ offseason approach, though. The moves were necessary to return to contention, and the additions will be valuable in future seasons, especially as they build around a quarterback on a rookie contract.

The competition took notice, and the other 31 pro personnel departments will surely study where the Patriots thrived while other big-spending teams failed in prior free agency periods. With the salary cap rising to $208 million in 2022, plenty of teams will have money to spend, and 12 teams have at least $40 million in cap space.

“I think teams are going to approach free agency like they normally do,” an executive said. “There are going to be a few teams that spend a bunch, and there are going to be a few teams that play the waiting game and let the market come to them. I would say teams are going to go about free agency the way they normally would and not be affected by what other teams do. If they have the money and the players they want and can get them, there will be teams that are going to spend a shit-ton of money.”

An agent added, “There’s going to be a lot of room with the cap increasing, and there’s going to be a ton of spending. It doesn’t mean it’s going to be wise spending. There are always players who get overpaid.”

And how will this impact the Patriots? Last year at this time, there was a perception — which was proven false — that prized free agents wouldn’t be willing to join the Patriots in the post-Brady era.

Rather, there will always be players whose personalities don’t jibe with certain coaches, and vice versa. That doesn’t make anyone’s priorities right, wrong or indifferent, but it’s another way to illustrate why it’s paramount to find the right fit between the player and coach.

“I’ve had multiple players reject the idea of playing for the Patriots over the years, even with Tom (at quarterback),” an agent said. “That’s because people have this misconception that it’s not fun to play for Bill. It’s an answer for individual players, except for one thing — whoever pays the most money 99 percent of the time gets the player. I don’t give a fuck if you’re Jacksonville, the Jets, the Dolphins or the Patriots. Give the guy the biggest contract, and he’s usually going to come to you.

“If you want to fuck around and come from a team where it’s a laissez-faire attitude, and they know they’re going to win six games then they’re going to fire the GM and head coach, then yeah, Bill Belichick is not your guy.”

Last offseason, Belichick found — and paid — his guys.

The Patriots are back in the playoffs.

And there’s been a ripple effect around the NFL.
 
Well, he traded for AB, despite his issues and known personality problems.
In his defense, didn't he trade directly from Pittsburgh? It seems, bad as he was in Piittsburgh, it was like how he went virally toxic in Oakland/New England/Tampa Bay.
 

What's the point of that tweet? Really, who cares about the ones who became NFL coaches (they couldn't complete as players). Stidham is worthless. Garoppolo can't stay healthy and his current bio leads with his gag in SB LIV. Jones is no given for an extraordinary franchise type quarterback. Brady was the luckiest draft pick in the history of professional sports. And he's playing for another franchise now because Belichick couldn't subjugate his massive ego or he failed to recognize Brady's continued ability to play at an elite level.

Bill Belichick is a hall of fame HC. But now so is Bruce Arians. Not a coincidence.
 
What's the point of that tweet? Really, who cares about the ones who became NFL coaches (they couldn't complete as players). Stidham is worthless. Garoppolo can't stay healthy and his current bio leads with his gag in SB LIV. Jones is no given for an extraordinary franchise type quarterback. Brady was the luckiest draft pick in the history of professional sports. And he's playing for another franchise now because Belichick couldn't subjugate his massive ego or he failed to recognize Brady's continued ability to play at an elite level.

Bill Belichick is a hall of fame HC. But now so is Bruce Arians. Not a coincidence.
...sounds like a guy that grew up rooting for some garbage-ass team like the Dolphins because they were good when he was 10 and he liked the mascot...
 
What's the point of that tweet? Really, who cares about the ones who became NFL coaches (they couldn't complete as players). Stidham is worthless. Garoppolo can't stay healthy and his current bio leads with his gag in SB LIV. Jones is no given for an extraordinary franchise type quarterback. Brady was the luckiest draft pick in the history of professional sports. And he's playing for another franchise now because Belichick couldn't subjugate his massive ego or he failed to recognize Brady's continued ability to play at an elite level.

Bill Belichick is a hall of fame HC. But now so is Bruce Arians. Not a coincidence.

Hello,

Welcome to the forum. Great introduction by the way. I'll let this inicial post slide since it seems you don't know how things work around here. But try to keep things civil going forward if you want to continue posting here. TIA
 

Let me rephrase...

I don't understand the point of the tweet. Belichick didn't draft any of those quarterbacks to groom them for NFL coaching careers. Stidham at best is planning for an NFL coaching career. Garoppolo has missed about 40% of NFL starts due to injury and he collapsed in the Super Bowl. Mac Jones is no Tom Brady (obviously however even if you're merely comparing their first seasons as the starter). The Patriots passed on Brady 6 times before selecting him at 199 in the 2000 draft, yet Brady is the greatest player in the history of professional sports, which reeks of good fortune. Belichick at least in part let Brady leave New England. Brady won another Super Bowl with another HC. Bruce Arians is now going to make the hall of fame.
 

Pro Football Focus released a roundup of their highest-graded players for the 2021 season and the Patriots are well-represented with five players earning nods from the analytics website.
Mac Jones tops the list, being named the top rookie quarterback with an overall grade of 79.3. Jones was the fifth quarterback selected in this year's draft, going 15th overall and landing in an excellent situation with an established coaching staff and system in place. His progress over the course of OTAs and training camp was impressive and he carried that success over into the regular season.
PFF writes of Jones:
Jones came on strong to start his NFL career, posting an 84.8 grade until Week 11. He's spiraled a bit since then, recording a 61.5 grade since Week 11, but that shouldn't take away from his solid season overall. He was the only rookie quarterback who graded above 65.0, which puts him far ahead of anyone in this category. He finishes his first campaign ranked 12th among all quarterbacks.
Jones was joined on the list by two of his running backs, as Damien Harris took the best overall grade at the position (87.5) while Rhamondre Stevenson was named the top rookie performer (79.2). The Patriots offense has been at their best this season when Harris and Stevenson are combining to make life difficult for opposing run defenses. Both missed games over the final four-game stretch of the season and their absences were noticeable as the Patriots were unable to produce the same kind of effect as when the duo is complementing each other.
PFF writes of Harris and Stevenson:
As a receiver and a runner, Harris was impressive this season. Harris was a first-down machine on the ground, finishing with 55 first-down runs from just 202 carries. He recorded the seventh-highest first-down or touchdown rate on the ground. Taking out the pass-blocking and receiving grades, Indianapolis Colts runner Jonathan Taylor had the highest PFF run grade (88.2) as he led the league in first-down or touchdown rate on the ground.


Part of New England's dual threat with Harris, Stevenson finished third among rookies with 0.25 missed tackles forced per rush while leading all rookies in yards per carry as well. Just 3.8% of his runs were stuffed at the line of scrimmage or in the backfield -- second-best in the NFL -- which displays that Stevenson grinds positive yards at every opportunity.
Defensively, the Patriots were well-represented as well, with two players gaining attention.
First is rookie defensive lineman Christian Barmore, whom the Patriots traded up for in the second round this spring and received PFF's highest grade for a rookie DL. Barmore's high energy and disruptive play jumped off the field from the first day that the pads came on. Like Jones, he carried over that solid start into the regular season and quickly emerged as one of the team's best pass rushers. An absolute problem to block one-on-one, Barmore looks like he avoided a major injury in the season finale against Miami and could be a key player this weekend in Buffalo getting after Josh Allen.
PFF writes of Barmore:
Rookie interior defenders didn't have a great season overall, but Barmore does stand out especially as a pass-rusher who boasted a 75.4 grade. He recorded 11 more pressures than any other rookie interior defender and finished third among all rookies regardless of position. His 17.1% pass rush win rate was the highest of all rookies not named Micah Parsons. He was not perfect defending the run, but he was drafted to rush the passer, and he can hang his hat on that aspect of his game after a nice rookie season.
Finally, Adrian Phillips earns a nod for biggest surprise at safety. Phillips built on a solid first season with the Patriots by expanding his role in the secondary even more. His game-winning pick-six against his former team in Los Angeles was a huge highlight of the season and Phillips was rewarded by signing a three-year extension earlier this month. While PFF probably undervalued how important Phillips was to the team in 2020, he's starting to earn some recognition for what a vital player he is to the Patriots defense.
PFF on Phillips:

In his second season in New England, Phillips was impressive. A semi-breakout 2019 season with the Chargers saw Phillips post a 87.6 grade from only 382 snaps. The Patriots picked him up and hoped he was closer to that than the player who didn't top 66.0 in any other season where he played at least 100 snaps for the Chargers. He wasn't great in 2020, posting just a 66.2 grade, but at 80.5 this season, it seems he has figured out Bill Belichick's defense.
Most notable is that all five of the Patriots players to make the list will return in 2022 and Harris' contract is the only one that expires before 2024, as he's due to hit free agency in 2023. This bodes well for the trajectory of the team on both sides of the ball.
 
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