Looking At The Patriots 2022

Wiley must not have looked at the Pats LBs or the loss of Jackson when he pronounced the defense as championship level. Must have not watched the Buffalo playoff game either.
 


Very entertaining. Marcellus is right. If BB did it with an embryotic Tom Brady, why not with Mac Jones?

I took this bet for $500 at +2500 for a chance to win $12,500.

New England Patriots – AFC Championship Odds


Bovada
+2500

BetOnline.ag
+2200

Everygame
+2200

Sports Betting
+2200

Caesar’s Sportsbook
+1800
 
Very entertaining. Marcellus is right. If BB did it with an embryotic Tom Brady, why not with Mac Jones?

I took this bet for $500 at +2500 for a chance to win $12,500.

New England Patriots – AFC Championship Odds


Bovada
+2500

BetOnline.ag
+2200

Everygame
+2200

Sports Betting
+2200

Caesar’s Sportsbook
+1800
Good luck!
 
Interesting chart with some positives and some negatives. Caveat: it's only 1 metric.
First and foremost, Mac Jones did really well reading coverages for a rookie. He's the outlier for all the other rookie QBs who are in the lower left quadrant.

Negatives.
Ben was right to retire. He was awful or just didn't care.
Sam Darnold still isn't getting it; time to pull the plug on him. Baker Mayfield isn't the answer, either.
Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Teddy Bridgewater and Dak Prescott should be much better at reading coverages than they are. Mac outperformed them.
Dak already robbed Jerrah. Kyler and Lamar are in the process but their bank presidents want more information and haven't approved their applications yet.
Russell Wilson is a 10th yr player who isn't earning his hype. His best days are behind him so the Broncos might regret trading for him.

Positives.
Jimmy G performed best against rotated coverages; Mahomes performed best against non-rotated coverages.
Stafford and Rogers performed best overall in this metric.
Herbert is the best of the young QBs here with Burrow and Allen close behind. Herbert has been in the league only 2 years and has already overtaken Josh Allen.
Joe Burrow, also 2 years, is narrowly ahead of Allen, 4 yrs, here but this chart doesn't count Allen's running prowess.
All 3 plus Mahomes come in ahead of Brady as do Jimmy G, Rodgers and Stafford. Brady is losing ground.
Wentz comes in 9th in a huge surprise to me. Derek Carr comes in 10th; I've always thought he is better than generally thought. Underrated, imo.
Tua is higher than I thought he would be.


FWkHLhyXoAEM504
 
Sometimes a player's value to a team isn't what is generally perceived. A good coach will always know where a player's abilities can be utilized for maximum effect.


View: https://twitter.com/PFF_Patriots/status/1542946140462645251


Ain't that the truth. I really try to form un-biased opinions on all of our players, but sometimes I get an attitude against a guy and just can't see what
certain stats tell us are the true facts of how useful a player is to his team.

I've never liked Bentley, even though I concede he has improved, but a part of me refuses to accept that he hasn't given up a TD because of anything
but luck of the draw. My perception, among other things, is that he is poor in coverage and is often targeted. I'm going to try to erase everything and start from scratch on
him. Maybe I'm simply wrong.
 
Interesting chart with some positives and some negatives. Caveat: it's only 1 metric.
First and foremost, Mac Jones did really well reading coverages for a rookie. He's the outlier for all the other rookie QBs who are in the lower left quadrant.

Negatives.
Ben was right to retire. He was awful or just didn't care.
Sam Darnold still isn't getting it; time to pull the plug on him. Baker Mayfield isn't the answer, either.
Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Teddy Bridgewater and Dak Prescott should be much better at reading coverages than they are. Mac outperformed them.
Dak already robbed Jerrah. Kyler and Lamar are in the process but their bank presidents want more information and haven't approved their applications yet.
Russell Wilson is a 10th yr player who isn't earning his hype. His best days are behind him so the Broncos might regret trading for him.

Positives.
Jimmy G performed best against rotated coverages; Mahomes performed best against non-rotated coverages.
Stafford and Rogers performed best overall in this metric.
Herbert is the best of the young QBs here with Burrow and Allen close behind. Herbert has been in the league only 2 years and has already overtaken Josh Allen.
Joe Burrow, also 2 years, is narrowly ahead of Allen, 4 yrs, here but this chart doesn't count Allen's running prowess.
All 3 plus Mahomes come in ahead of Brady as do Jimmy G, Rodgers and Stafford. Brady is losing ground.
Wentz comes in 9th in a huge surprise to me. Derek Carr comes in 10th; I've always thought he is better than generally thought. Underrated, imo.
Tua is higher than I thought he would be.


FWkHLhyXoAEM504
Great stuff. Thank you for posting.
 
Ain't that the truth. I really try to form un-biased opinions on all of our players, but sometimes I get an attitude against a guy and just can't see what
certain stats tell us are the true facts of how useful a player is to his team.

I've never liked Bentley, even though I concede he has improved, but a part of me refuses to accept that he hasn't given up a TD because of anything
but luck of the draw. My perception, among other things, is that he is poor in coverage and is often targeted. I'm going to try to erase everything and start from scratch on
him. Maybe I'm simply wrong.
Could it be that the secondary cheats to his side, so that it is just long gains instead of TDs?
 
Ain't that the truth. I really try to form un-biased opinions on all of our players, but sometimes I get an attitude against a guy and just can't see what
certain stats tell us are the true facts of how useful a player is to his team.

I've never liked Bentley, even though I concede he has improved, but a part of me refuses to accept that he hasn't given up a TD because of anything
but luck of the draw. My perception, among other things, is that he is poor in coverage and is often targeted. I'm going to try to erase everything and start from scratch on
him. Maybe I'm simply wrong.
A great secondary always helps...
 
Ain't that the truth. I really try to form un-biased opinions on all of our players, but sometimes I get an attitude against a guy and just can't see what
certain stats tell us are the true facts of how useful a player is to his team.

I've never liked Bentley, even though I concede he has improved, but a part of me refuses to accept that he hasn't given up a TD because of anything
but luck of the draw. My perception, among other things, is that he is poor in coverage and is often targeted. I'm going to try to erase everything and start from scratch on
him. Maybe I'm simply wrong.

Here's another one. This one's not quite so eyeopening but nevertheless isn't the answer most would have given. I'm expecting much bigger production from Bourne this year.


View: https://twitter.com/PFF_Patriots/status/1543308524528082944
 
Last edited:
Mike Reiss is on vacation but he can't stay away from writing about football and the Patriots.
There's no weekly ESPN slot for him this week so he took it to his personal blog.

 
Mike Reiss is on vacation but he can't stay away from writing about football and the Patriots.
There's no weekly ESPN slot for him this week so he took it to his personal blog.

i forgot he had a personal blog.nice, thanks!
my favorites were 8,9,10,14,15. & 18
 
Ain't that the truth. I really try to form un-biased opinions on all of our players, but sometimes I get an attitude against a guy and just can't see what
certain stats tell us are the true facts of how useful a player is to his team.

I've never liked Bentley, even though I concede he has improved, but a part of me refuses to accept that he hasn't given up a TD because of anything
but luck of the draw. My perception, among other things, is that he is poor in coverage and is often targeted. I'm going to try to erase everything and start from scratch on
him. Maybe I'm simply wrong.
He's not in coverage down close to the end zone. Like, EVER. So the only real opportunities for TDs against him in coverage are for deep threat TEs and crossing patterns that get broken off for a TD. And for both of those he's got, you know, pretty friggin' good safeties playing behind him. He's not a good coverage LB. He's just not. He just always has another line of defense.
 
He's not in coverage down close to the end zone. Like, EVER. So the only real opportunities for TDs against him in coverage are for deep threat TEs and crossing patterns that get broken off for a TD. And for both of those he's got, you know, pretty friggin' good safeties playing behind him. He's not a good coverage LB. He's just not. He just always has another line of defense.

But don't all LBs have another line of defense? He's the only LB who didn't give up a TD. He deserves some credit for that.
 
But don't all LBs have another line of defense? He's the only LB who didn't give up a TD. He deserves some credit for that.
Sure, but most defensive schemes are not explicitly removing the ILBs coverage responsibilities in red zone defenses. And realistically the Patriots also built the scheme from the personnel forward to cover receiving TEs with safeties rather than LBs.

Look, admittedly I could be reverting to my prior conceptions here. I guess I'd want to see how many long-YAC TDs and deep passes to TEs are "charged" against coverage other coverage LBs vs how many are TD passes from the red zone. But what my eyes tell me are that his coverage responsibilities are almost exclusively limited to curl and hook zones, and occasionally man coverage of TEs that aren't exactly world-beaters out on their routes. Even when he picks up crossing patterns in what looks like man coverage, he seems to drop them when they vacate the middle - presumably the design of that specific man/zone scheme.

I just don't see a coverage linebacker. At absolute best I see someone who is barely out of the range of "liability in coverage." Thus, that looks like a statistical quirk based on situational variables to me.
 
I just don't see a coverage linebacker. At absolute best I see someone who is barely out of the range of "liability in coverage." Thus, that looks like a statistical quirk based on situational variables to me.
It could be a statistical quirk. Quite the quirk that results in 766 snaps with no TDs yielded. That's no as to dismiss out of hand as a quirk, and whatever liability he has in giving up yards, his liability in coverage stops at giving up points, something no other Pats LB has done in this time frame.

Or it could be that data is conflicting with how you have decided he is in coverage and thus are rejecting the data as nonvalid.

He isn't my favorite LB either, but there must be some reason the Pats just resigned him to another 2 year deal while letting other LBs walk.
 
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