Looking at the Patriots 2023

[aloyouis]

I keep coming back to a strong instinct that the Patriots sweep the Fins this year.

3-3 or better in the division is a must to make the playoffs IF 10-7 can get them in.

3-3 in division
4-2 in other AFC
3-2 in NFC

 

[Mazz22]

3-3 or better in the division is a must to make the playoffs IF 10-7 can get them in.

3-3 in division
4-2 in other AFC
3-2 in NFC

I don't think 10 will be enough in the AFC. I like your records except for 4-2 in other AFC. I think that could likely be 2-4 but hoping for 3-3.

 

[Flagg the Wanderer]

I don't think 10 will be enough in the AFC. I like your records except for 4-2 in other AFC. I think that could likely be 2-4 but hoping for 3-3.

Why not? They're all beating up on each other, too. When I look at how the rest of AFC East matches up among each other:

• Phins beat Bills, slight edge
• Jets/Bills are a wash
• Jets beat Phins, slight edge

Then consider that additional schedule is, if anything, tougher on the other AFC East teams except the Jeets:

• Buffalo has Jax on the schedule, plus @KC, @Philly, @CIN,
• Miami has @KC, @Philly, @Bal, and has to travel to @BUF in January.

As to the Jets, their opponents are easier overall, but consider the fickleness of their home field advantage. Then consider Rodgers' history of slow starts ("R-E-L-A-X!") and his likelihood of doing something Rodgers-y to trigger the NY media in interviews, especially if they're struggling early. Then consider that they could legitimately have things go reasonably well at a fundamental level and still be 2-4 (or worse!) heading into their early bye. They start with BUF, @DAL, NE (in a game where the crowd may start to turn on them), and then host the Chiefs and Eagles with a trip to Mile High sandwiched in the middle. Now, admittedly their schedule gets very favorable after the bye - (Giants, Chargers, Raiders, Falcons, Texans, Commies, and Browns between week 8 and week 17) - but if they have a rough start they might be in Jets-ian disarray and unable to take advantage of it. Given their history with Buffalo and NE, if they don't win hosting the Chargers for Week 9 MNF, the warm and fuzzy Jets fans (who have no inferiority complex!) might still be looking for the first home victory from their new glorious savior when they host the Phins for a Thanksgiving hangover game!

That said, when I look at this holistically, I'd prefer to have the Jets be excellent, sweep the Bills and Fins, and still knuckle under to the big/little brother syndrome they have going on with the Patriots. Because as everyone knows, if a time traveler put end of season records in front of Jets fans, and they showed 15-2, every d@mn one of them would know in their hearts where those two losses fell, and they would tremble.

 

[Roberto71]

What people might be really underestimating next season is how good our defense is going to be. For all the talk about the all singing all dancing offenses in the AFC, NO team will enjoy playing our team with that bad-ass front 7 and the physicality and athleticism in the backfield.

I would like to make an early plea to the officials. For f**k sake, will you at least call some fo the blatant, almost comical holds on Matt Judon next season???

 

[aloyouis]

That said, when I look at this holistically, I'd prefer to have the Jets be excellent, sweep the Bills and Fins, and still knuckle under to the big/little brother syndrome they have going on with the Patriots. Because as everyone knows, if a time traveler put end of season records in front of Jets fans, and they showed 15-2, every d@mn one of them would know in their hearts where those two losses fell, and they would tremble.

 

[Flagg the Wanderer]

What people might be really underestimating next season is how good our defense is going to be. For all the talk about the all singing all dancing offenses in the AFC, NO team will enjoy playing our team with that bad-ass front 7 and the physicality and athleticism in the backfield.

I would like to make an early plea to the officials. For f**k sake, will you at least call some fo the blatant, almost comical holds on Matt Judon next season???

This, too. The team is better than we think.

 

[Flagg the Wanderer]

Iz fersrius. Ask @jetsknicks1 , he knows:

Rodgers Is a Jet

Hilarious, yes. Because even if the Patriots were 2-15, everyone knows perfectly well that those two wins would be vs NYJ and @ NYJ. That’s just mean, Flagg. Probably accurate but still mean.

www.patriotsplanet.net

 

[aloyouis]

Iz fersrius. Ask @jetsknicks1 , he knows:

Rodgers Is a Jet

Hilarious, yes. Because even if the Patriots were 2-15, everyone knows perfectly well that those two wins would be vs NYJ and @ NYJ. That’s just mean, Flagg. Probably accurate but still mean.

www.patriotsplanet.net

Oh, I wasn't disagreeing with you at all. I found what you wrote to be hilarious, as in really funny.

 

[Flagg the Wanderer]

Oh, I wasn't disagreeing with you at all. I found what you wrote to be hilarious, as in really funny.

I know. My response was designed to be a deadpan continuation. But I couldn't make it come across in this medium, and if you have to explain it, well...

 

[rivshark86]

The defense should be as good as any in the NFL.

I do worry about relying on that in 2023, only because the calls are so skewed towards the offense. I mean a DB can barely brush a WRs jersey and a QB like Rodgers just has to make the fisting motion and get the call.
I remember listening to Bart Scott, I know everyone here hates him, he was saying the Chiefs run an illegal pick play with Kelce half of the time and never get called.
It’s been commanded from the top that the league wants offense, questionable calls in the 3rd and 4th quarter be damned.
And it’s turning into the NBA where the stars get the calls. Unfortunately the pats right now don’t have many stars.
So am I excited about this defense? Yes. Very. I’m just waiting for the BS holding call on a Jets WR, or the late hit on Allen or Tua.

 

[Flagg the Wanderer]

The defense should be as good as any in the NFL.

I do worry about relying on that in 2023, only because the calls are so skewed towards the offense. I mean a DB can barely brush a WRs jersey and a QB like Rodgers just has to make the fisting motion and get the call.
I remember listening to Bart Scott, I know everyone here hates him, he was saying the Chiefs run an illegal pick play with Kelce half of the time and never get called.
It’s been commanded from the top that the league wants offense, questionable calls in the 3rd and 4th quarter be damned.
And it’s turning into the NBA where the stars get the calls. Unfortunately the pats right now don’t have many stars.
So am I excited about this defense? Yes. Very. I’m just waiting for the BS holding call on a Jets WR, or the late hit on Allen or Tua.

Agreed, except I suspect the offense turns the corner into the top half of the league as well. This diverse group of skill players doesn't need a superstar at QB, it needs a point guard distributor. To be a top 5 offense, it needs a superstar QB.

Complementary football, right? Let the defense do it's thing, and the offense (and STs) helps them by not turning the ball over or putting them on short fields, with short rest, or for too much of the game. Will the offense "actually" be a top 10 group? Unlikely. Could it be a top 10 group statistically, in terms of first downs, time of position and even points scored? Yeah, that could definitely happen.

Say you "actually" have the 17th best offense in the league in a vacuum. By DVOA, EPA, eyeball test, or what have you - however you think you get an "actual, true ranking." But if the defense gives you short fields, keeps opposing defenses on the field a lot so not only are there more opportunities for errors, but they're also tired, keeps the offense from being predictable and having to play from behind? If it's an offense that doesn't hurt it's defense with mistakes and a lot of 3 and outs, presto! Top 10 scoring offense! And your #17 offense in a vacuum is maybe #12-15 even by those same statistics, because they're running more plays than average against defenders that are tired, stressed, and demoralized.

 

[aloyouis]

Agreed, except I suspect the offense turns the corner into the top half of the league as well. This diverse group of skill players doesn't need a superstar at QB, it needs a point guard distributor. To be a top 5 offense, it needs a superstar QB.

Complementary football, right? Let the defense do it's thing, and the offense (and STs) helps them by not turning the ball over or putting them on short fields, with short rest, or for too much of the game. Will the offense "actually" be a top 10 group? Unlikely. Could it be a top 10 group statistically, in terms of first downs, time of position and even points scored? Yeah, that could definitely happen.

Say you "actually" have the 17th best offense in the league in a vacuum. By DVOA, EPA, eyeball test, or what have you - however you think you get an "actual, true ranking." But if the defense gives you short fields, keeps opposing defenses on the field a lot so not only are there more opportunities for errors, but they're also tired, keeps the offense from being predictable and having to play from behind? If it's an offense that doesn't hurt it's defense with mistakes and a lot of 3 and outs, presto! Top 10 scoring offense! And your #17 offense in a vacuum is maybe #12-15 even by those same statistics, because they're running more plays than average against defenders that are tired, stressed, and demoralized.

100%

 

[Flagg the Wanderer]

If the Patriots see ways Malik Cunningham can add value, look for him to be QB2 on a game to game basis so they can use those packages or his athleticism. Zappe would be QB3 for a given game, only able to be activated if Mac and Malik couldn't go. But he'd (presumably) be the week to week backup if Mac had to remain sidelined. In that case, Zappe would go from QB3 to QB1, with Malik at QB2 in both cases.Mac, McSorley, or a TBD PS QB would be the QB3.

 

[foobahl]

If the Patriots see ways Malik Cunningham can add value, look for him to be QB2 on a game to game basis so they can use those packages or his athleticism. Zappe would be QB3 for a given game, only able to be activated if Mac and Malik couldn't go. But he'd (presumably) be the week to week backup if Mac had to remain sidelined. In that case, Zappe would go from QB3 to QB1, with Malik at QB2 in both cases.Mac, McSorley, or a TBD PS QB would be the QB3.

The emergency qb must be on the 53. He cannot be a ps player.

 

[Flagg the Wanderer]

The emergency qb must be on the 53. He cannot be a ps player.

Yes. I meant if Mac is hurt badly enough that he really can't play, someone on the PS (McSorley or whoever) would be activated to become QB3.

If they don't have a Cunningham package, or don't plan to use him in other ways, it's all irrelevant - whoever earns QB2 is QB2, etc. Just thought it was interesting that it's a system that can be worked to gain a little more flexibility if Cunningham offers something of value.

 

[spacecrime]

The emergency qb must be on the 53. He cannot be a ps player.

Zappe would be the emergency QB, not Malik.

1. Cunningham activated from PS

2. Zappe named emergency QB.

3. During the game Jones and Cunningham play QB, going in and out at Patriots' discretion.

4 If both Jones and Cunningham get hurt and cannot play, then Zappe finishes the game

 

[Flagg the Wanderer]

Zappe would be the emergency QB, not Malik.

1. Cunningham activated from PS

2. Zappe named emergency QB.

3. During the game Jones and Cunningham play QB, going in and out at Patriots' discretion.

4 If both Jones and Cunningham get hurt and cannot play, then Zappe finishes the game

Right. And if Mac goes down for a longer span, it would be Zappe as QB1, Cunningham as QB2, and Mac (if he's close) or someone else (who would have been activated from the PS) as the QB3, who is inactive except for an emergency.

This scenario would have worked out to almost a free spot on the active roster (the 47/48 for game day, not the 53) when Jules was here.

 

[aloyouis]

 

[Flagg the Wanderer]

Also 1st in Defensive EPA/play, lowest missed tackle rate, 2nd in # of plays against, and top 5 in opposing offensive efficiency rate, total yards against, and yards per play against.

This defense was much better than was generally perceived, and if you look at just the later season and metrics that are weighted for strength of opposition, it's more stark.

The areas they weren't elite were big play % allowed and % of negative plays. Those are often experience-driven metrics.

 

[Hawg73]

Thought this was a fun article and worth a read.


Kayshon Boutte was once thought to be a potential Top 10 pick.

When the wide receiver from LSU was finally taken by the Patriots in the sixth round of last month’s NFL Draft, Ryan Antoine’s reaction was simple.
“He’s the steal of the draft,” the Westgate High School football coach said. “He can just go play football and be in an organization of true structure and great stability. I think that will be amazing for him. He couldn’t ask for a better place to go to. Now he just has to show everybody what everybody around here already knows.”

Antoine has been watching Boutte score touchdowns since peewee ball in in New Iberia, Louisiana. When it came time to decide on a high school, Antoine convinced him to attend Westgate, and Boutte grew into a highly-touted recruit under his watch. As a freshman, Antoine tried to ease him in, but a month into the season had Boutte already forced his way into the varsity lineup.
“The biggest thing was just his competitiveness,” Antoine said. Boutte played everywhere at Westgate — wildcat quarterback, running back, inside receiver, outside receiver, kick returner etc. — and Antoine found creative ways to motivate him. One, in particular, came against Captain Shreve during his sophomore year.

“I took his phone from him,” Antoine recalled. “I said, ‘Hey you’re not getting your phone unless you have a breakout game.’”

Boutte lifted Westgate to a 27-22 win with three second-half touchdowns, including a 97-yard reception, and the game-winner with 2:02 remaining in the fourth quarter.

“Kayshon ended the night with over 300 yards receiving,” Antoine said. “He just started making plays all over the place. I’m like OK, now he’s arrived. He’s definitely one of the top players in the state just as a 15, 16-year-old... Now you can have your phone back.”

Another time, Boutte showed up on game day in compression tights. Antoine wasn’t a fan.

“I didn’t want guys wearing tights,” Antoine said. “‘In order to keep these tights on, you’d better have a hell of a night or I’ll take you out of the game.’ Two plays later, I think he had two touchdowns back-to-back... ‘You all can put tights on now. If that’s how you’re going to play, we’re all going to wear tights.’”

Though an undoubted star in high school, things were more turbulent for Boutte at the college level. After excelling under Ed Orgeron as a freshman at LSU — one afternoon he torched Ole Miss for an SEC record 308 receiving yards — Boutte broke his ankle and ended his sophomore year prematurely.

Then when Brian Kelly took over for his junior season, there was friction and a different offense (and a different coaching staff) to learn. Off the field, Boutte’s girlfriend gave birth to a son last September, so there were plenty of changes across the board.

Though Boutte wasn’t able to match his stellar first season at LSU, Antoine believes Foxborough is the perfect place for him to hit his ceiling.

“To be honest with you, Kayshon still hasn’t scratched the surface of his potential,” Antoine said. “I think going to an organization like the Patriots with Coach (Bill) Belichick, I think you’re going to see monumental leaps. The biggest thing with Kayshon is just keep it competitive, keep it structured, and always have him working to always get better. When the chips are on the table, I know he’s always ready to perform."

“Get ready. Get y’all’s popcorn. Y’all going to see the show.”