Maye vs Stafford For MVP

Who gets your vote as MVP for 2025 and why?

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Looks like a narrow margin with Maye slightly ahead of Stafford after Stafford's poor performance last week.

The Rams were expected to come in 1st but are 3rd in the NFC West
Versus the common teams between him and Maye: Stafford 4-2 Maye 6-0
With six picks and three losses over his last five games, Stafford has faded a bit down the stretch.
Stafford enjoys better weapons than Maye. Nacua leads the league in receiving, for example.
Some people have suggested Stafford will get the sentimental vote and, conversely, the vote by those who rationalize that Maye has plenty of years to go to earn MVP.
A lot is made about the Pats easy schedule but adjusted EPA accounts for that and Maye still ranks 1st (see chart below). Besides, Stafford played nine games against a defense ranked in the bottom half of the league in EPA per play. Maye played 10 times against teams ranked in the bottom half of EPA per play on defense. Virtually the same which eliminates the easy schedule argument for QB play.

A case could be made for both Maye or Stafford winning MVP. They are both great quarterbacks who are leading legit Super Bowl contenders. But when you look deeper at some of the advanced metrics, in addition to their stats versus common opponents, it’s fair to give Maye a slight edge.

This guy took the 1 stat Stafford leads in (TDs) and broke it up into multiple subsets to pump Stafford's stats.


View: https://x.com/NFL_Researcher/status/2006387369679966635

vs Sub Packages – 23 (T-1st)*
🔹Outside the Numbers – 18 (2nd)*
🔹Inside the Numbers – 24 (1st)*
🔹In Tight Windows – 7 (1st)*
🔹Inside the Pocket – 37 (1st)*
🔹Quick Passes – 26 (1st)*
🔹vs the Blitz – 29 (1st)*
🔹 Without Pressure – 38 (1st)
🔹 With Play Action – 18 (1st)*
🔹Without Play Action – 24 (T-1st)*
🔹Past the Sticks – 30 (1st)*
🔹vs Single High – 17 (T-2nd)*
🔹In 4th Quarter/OT – 12 (1st)
🔹In Red Zone – 31 (1st)
🔹On 1st Down – 20 (1st)
🔹 On the Road – 24 (1st)
🔹At Home – 18 (T-1st)
🔹Targeting TE – 14 (1st)
🔹Targeting WR – 25 (T-1st)
🔹With Lead – 23 (1st)



View: https://x.com/puppiesandnfl/status/2006623604121964942


Where is Stafford ranked in the next ranking?
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Whether using traditional stats or analytics, Maye is at the top of almost every category. Maye ranks 1st in the NFL in EPA (+139.4) and CPOE (+8.9%), along with yards per attempt (8.9) and QB rating (112.9). Although he has fewer passing yards (4,203) and touchdowns (30) than Stafford, he should be the favorite to win the MVP award as of now.

EPA is the most impt QB stat for wins. Here's the current EPA ranking and Adjusted EPA ranking.



View: https://x.com/KevinCole___/status/2006372279777694116
 
HSanders said:
Stafford plays in a dome and plays other good weather teams also.
Click to expand...

SoFi isn't exactly a dome, nor is it an outdoor stadium:

SoFi Stadium is considered an indoor-outdoor stadium, a unique hybrid that's neither a traditional dome nor fully open-air, featuring a massive, semi-translucent canopy that covers the seating bowl but leaves the field exposed, creating an open-air feel while offering weather protection. It's often described as having "dome-like" coverage but is functionally an open stadium, allowing for an indoor-outdoor experience unique in the NFL.
Click to expand...
 
If we're judging by last year's selection I'd say Maye is the clear favorite, but it never seems to be a clear criteria. Plus there is bias towards Stafford due to having apparent favoritism.

Either way Sunday's game will have big implications if Stafford lays another egg.
 
Orlovsky has been a big fan of Maye, totally glazing him all year, but has been pushing Stafford as his choice for MVP.

Entirely coincidentally, he shares an agent with Stafford.
 
To me Maye is the clear choice. But the award has been a media narrative for a long time now. So we'll see. They might pick Stafford just because of longevity.
 
Flagg the Wanderer said:
Orlovsky has been a big fan of Maye, totally glazing him all year, but has been pushing Stafford as his choice for MVP.

Entirely coincidentally, he shares an agent with Stafford.
Click to expand...
There's a Post on X that goes over how he used to eschew using the strength of schedule. Et cetera to decide mvp or coach of the year, when it was nick sirianni, who also shares an agent with him.But now he's using strength of schedule to denounce drake maye
 
As per usual, the actual MVP this year is probably a running back (McCaffrey with a 1000/1000 season).

But if it's between the two QBs, only one has actually played well in December. I don't see the case for Stafford anymore. A month ago I would have given it to him, but he's fallen off a cliff.
 
TommyD420 said:
As per usual, the actual MVP this year is probably a running back (McCaffrey with a 1000/1000 season).

But if it's between the two QBs, only one has actually played well in December. I don't see the case for Stafford anymore. A month ago I would have given it to him, but he's fallen off a cliff.
Click to expand...
Holy crap, i had no idea his season was that good.That just shows you what drives narratives. I'd give it to macaffrey.
 
HSanders said:
Holy crap, i had no idea his season was that good.That just shows you what drives narratives. I'd give it to macaffrey.
Click to expand...
The minute Carolina traded Christian is the minute they took a deep dive down. Granted he stayed injured but they used him for everything which added to it. With the contract he had with them I get it. But I was not happy they traded him. He is a special player.
 
Agree CMC is likley the true mvp and they just do the ‘QB thing’ way too often
But if a QB it will be then i think Maye (barring any screw ups this last game) is deserving but Stafford - unless he screws up his last game - will get it on the “old guy” vote
 
Patriots44 said:
Agree CMC is likley the true mvp and they just do the ‘QB thing’ way too often
But if a QB it will be then i think Maye (barring any screw ups this last game) is deserving but Stafford - unless he screws up his last game - will get it on the “old guy” vote
Click to expand...
Probably.
Josh Allen won it last year.

Saquon Barkley was the best player.
Lamar Jackson was the best QB.

Josh Allen won it because...it was his turn or something? I have no idea.
 
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