Patriots Playoff Run

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oldbagfan

oldbagfan

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Too soon? Sounds like the Pats may be able to stanch the bleeding with the injuries to LT Campbell, LG Wilson, DT Tonga who provided great protection for Maye and ST guy Schooler. Reading up the on the O-line players they can be calling on to fill the gaps is fairly reassuring. As we all know, right now the Patriots are in line to make a very large noise in the NFL. Looking at their upcoming opponents Giants, Bills, Ravens, Jets, and Dolphins, I'm not really worried about any of those teams. Ravens totally stunk it up yesterday and that was the only game I had any concerns about. Until recently I also worried about the Gints, but they are not who they used to be. :) So KNOCK ON WOOD, what are our chances of winning them all? AFC champs? And dare I ask . . . could they possibly go to the . . . . :cool: ?? Opinions, please
 
oldbagfan said:
Too soon? Sounds like the Pats may be able to stanch the bleeding with the injuries to LT Campbell, LG Wilson, DT Tonga who provided great protection for Maye and ST guy Schooler. Reading up the on the O-line players they can be calling on to fill the gaps is fairly reassuring. As we all know, right now the Patriots are in line to make a very large noise in the NFL. Looking at their upcoming opponents Giants, Bills, Ravens, Jets, and Dolphins, I'm not really worried about any of those teams. Ravens totally stunk it up yesterday and that was the only game I had any concerns about. Until recently I also worried about the Gints, but they are not who they used to be. :) So KNOCK ON WOOD, what are our chances of winning them all? AFC champs? And dare I ask . . . could they possibly go to the . . . . :cool: ?? Opinions, please
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I feel like no matter what happens the rest of the year that I'm spoiled. Everything from here on out is just gravy based on initial expectations. I know that things change, but I'm trying hard to hold onto initial expectations so that the appreciation of what goes on stays accurate and should they win it all or go far that would be great, but if for some reason, something bad happens then it's still a huge success!
 
oldbagfan said:
Too soon? Sounds like the Pats may be able to stanch the bleeding with the injuries to LT Campbell, LG Wilson, DT Tonga who provided great protection for Maye and ST guy Schooler. Reading up the on the O-line players they can be calling on to fill the gaps is fairly reassuring. As we all know, right now the Patriots are in line to make a very large noise in the NFL. Looking at their upcoming opponents Giants, Bills, Ravens, Jets, and Dolphins, I'm not really worried about any of those teams. Ravens totally stunk it up yesterday and that was the only game I had any concerns about. Until recently I also worried about the Gints, but they are not who they used to be. :) So KNOCK ON WOOD, what are our chances of winning them all? AFC champs? And dare I ask . . . could they possibly go to the . . . . :cool: ?? Opinions, please
Click to expand...
Right now, NFL.com is referencing a Nextgen Gen Stats probability model for the Pats as follows:
96-99% chance to make the playoffs (depending on Monday's game)
78% chance to win the AFC East (Bills have a 22% chance)
34% chance at the #1 seed (Broncos are at 40%)

I think it's a little premature to get into postseason probability yet as a lot can happen in 5 games.
 
3 Point Stan said:
Right now, NFL.com is referencing a Nextgen Gen Stats probability model for the Pats as follows:
96-99% chance to make the playoffs (depending on Monday's game)
78% chance to win the AFC East (Bills have a 22% chance)
34% chance at the #1 seed (Broncos are at 40%)

I think it's a little premature to get into postseason probability yet as a lot can happen in 5 games.
Click to expand...
I'm not that interested in statistical predictions so much as your gut feelings about this. IMO Broncs present most dangerous challenge to us right now for AFC Champs, but they also have some tough games ahead against the Pack, Chargers and Jags. We already beat the Bills so likely we can do it again. I don't think much changes, even should we lose to the Giants Monday Night (unlikely).
 
oldbagfan said:
I'm not that interested in statistical predictions so much as your gut feelings about this. IMO Broncs present most dangerous challenge to us right now for AFC Champs, but they also have some tough games ahead against the Pack, Chargers and Jags. We already beat the Bills so likely we can do it again. I don't think much changes, even should we lose to the Giants Monday Night (unlikely).
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Pros: They have a chance to run the table vs. the AFCE and division wins has a significant rank in tie-breaker situations
Bills remain the toughest opponent on the schedule but they have Pit and Cincy coming up and if they get the version of the Bengals that Baltimore saw yesterday, that's some tough
sledding before they face the Pats again in the 3rd game of that stretch

Cons: The Patriots record compared to close contenders such as Denver, Indy and Buffalo is a slightly over-inflated by .5 in the standings because they haven't had their bye yet.
The Buffalo game will provide the proper adjustment for that, but a loss to Buffalo could provide to be more costly than just one game in the standings

Overall I think they are sitting pretty. It's tough to say they can likely afford 1 more loss but I think they can because I believe Denver and Indy will lose 1-2 more (they're not nearly as good on the road as they have been at home and they each have 3 more road games and a tougher remaining schedule than the Pats do).

I will let others predict their playoff fate as I think it's too soon to start speculating because to do so assumes team health, etc. and injuries can change things in a hurry for a team.
 
I do think that the Broncos are more likely than the Pats to get the 1 seed. It's pretty much impossible to get the tiebreaker over them without a convoluted sequence of events, due to the Raiders loss. Even if we tie on conference record (likely if we end up with the same record, though they have more NFC games left), due to the Raiders loss we'll lose in the common opponents tiebreaker. So in order for Pats to get the 1 seed the Broncos need to lose at least 1 game more than them through the rest of the year. If the Patriots split Bills and Ravens and take care of business otherwise, finishing 14-3, they have a great chance at it. 13-4 is possible but more likely to be the 2 seed. Given I expect the Broncos to handle the Commanders and Raiders, and it's fair to assume a split 2-2 record in their final 4 between Packers, Jags, Chiefs and Chargers. So right now I'd peg them to finish 13-4.

But regardless as others have said we're already in gravy territory. I was hoping for 9-8, possibly 10-7 this year. Every win is more than I expected already, so whatever the seeding ends up being and however the playoffs go, it's a huge win in my book. Only what, like 5 QBs in history have made it to and won the Super Bowl on their first playoff run, so just getting there and getting playoff experience is already huge.
 
Aloyouis said:
I feel like no matter what happens the rest of the year that I'm spoiled. Everything from here on out is just gravy based on initial expectations. I know that things change, but I'm trying hard to hold onto initial expectations so that the appreciation of what goes on stays accurate and should they win it all or go far that would be great, but if for some reason, something bad happens then it's still a huge success!
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I agree. AFAIC we're playing with house money AND we're ahead of the game already,
 
3 Point Stan said:
I think it's a little premature to get into postseason probability yet as a lot can happen in 5 games.
Click to expand...

Very true. But a 9-game win streak has to count for something in a year with some crazy upsets (looking at you Bills @ Dolphins). We're 10-2 and are likely to be favored in every remaining game and are pretty much one home game vs said Bills from locking up the AFCE.

I think we can be forgiven for looking ahead to the playoffs. Players need all their focus on the next game, but fans? what we do or say won't hurt the Pats' chances at all. For this fan, I've already filled out the brackets and see us in the superbowl.
 
spacecrime said:
I think we can be forgiven for looking ahead to the playoffs. Players need all their focus on the next game, but fans? what we do or say won't hurt the Pats' chances at all. For this fan, I've already filled out the brackets and see us in the superbowl.
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I agree. I realize players are constantly reminded not to look beyond the next game, but for fans, I think we have permission to form opinions about how the season will turn out. Of course, "on any given Sunday" blah blah blah, and injuries and other unforeseeables are always possible, but I don't see the harm in projecting how things will work out, or at least how we hope things will work out. :patslogo26:
 
spacecrime said:
I think we can be forgiven for looking ahead to the playoffs. Players need all their focus on the next game, but fans? what we do or say won't hurt the Pats' chances at all. For this fan, I've already filled out the brackets and see us in the superbowl.
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That's easy for you to say.
Maybe you don't feel personally responsible if they lose, like some people do.
Maybe you don't have to do the same things and wear the same gear before and during games, like some people do.
 
I agree that we are playing with house money, but a playoff win is the new measuring stick for me, which may seem to contradict my ‘house money’ comment earlier, as I won’t lose any sleep if they don’t, but it would be a great way to cap off this return to prominence
 
oldbagfan said:
Too soon? Sounds like the Pats may be able to stanch the bleeding with the injuries to LT Campbell, LG Wilson, DT Tonga who provided great protection for Maye and ST guy Schooler. Reading up the on the O-line players they can be calling on to fill the gaps is fairly reassuring. As we all know, right now the Patriots are in line to make a very large noise in the NFL. Looking at their upcoming opponents Giants, Bills, Ravens, Jets, and Dolphins, I'm not really worried about any of those teams. Ravens totally stunk it up yesterday and that was the only game I had any concerns about. Until recently I also worried about the Gints, but they are not who they used to be. :) So KNOCK ON WOOD, what are our chances of winning them all? AFC champs? And dare I ask . . . could they possibly go to the . . . . :cool: ?? Opinions, please
Click to expand...

The Pats have lots to clean up before making a successful run in the postseason.

RZ O and D are among the worst in the league. If they've been trying to improve their RZ performance, it's not working.
Offense:
Inside the 20, TD % 55%, rank 20th
Inside the 10, TD % 65%, rank 25th
Defense:
Inside the 20, TD % 73%, rank 32nd
Inside the 10, TD % 100%, rank 32nd

Then there's the run D. Remember all that talk about not allowing a RB >50 yds in a game? That ended 3 games ago. Prior to that, the Patriots were allowing 75 yds/game
on D rushing. The last 3 games, that's become 125 yds/game. Where did that great running D go?

Next is the Patriots running game which hasn't been good all year except for some long TD runs by Henderson. That won't improve with Campbell and Wilson out. Maybe the time is coming to keep the ball more in Maye's hands to let him do his magic with more designed rollouts, more short passes and some designed runs (with the caveat, don't take a hit).

These things can be looked at in 2 different ways. The Pats got to 10-2 with these issues, so a little improvement might be all that's needed. But if teams are scheming against
the Patriots through game film scouting, that goes back to the coaches to counter those schemes.

The Giants have much better personnel than their record suggests. This MNF game will be closer than the 7 point spread, imo. Unless the coaches self-scout to correct for what teams are doing differently about us now than 5-6 weeks ago, I think this will be a 2-3 point game either way.
 
spacecrime said:
Very true. But a 9-game win streak has to count for something in a year with some crazy upsets (looking at you Bills @ Dolphins). We're 10-2 and are likely to be favored in every remaining game and are pretty much one home game vs said Bills from locking up the AFCE.

I think we can be forgiven for looking ahead to the playoffs. Players need all their focus on the next game, but fans? what we do or say won't hurt the Pats' chances at all. For this fan, I've already filled out the brackets and see us in the superbowl.
Click to expand...
oldbagfan said:
I agree. I realize players are constantly reminded not to look beyond the next game, but for fans, I think we have permission to form opinions about how the season will turn out. Of course, "on any given Sunday" blah blah blah, and injuries and other unforeseeables are always possible, but I don't see the harm in projecting how things will work out, or at least how we hope things will work out. :patslogo26:
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Absolutely! This is fun so we should enjoy it. I don't see Pats in the SB though. Why? I just don't think they are playing as exceptional as their record might imply and they lost the whole left side of their O-line. That could prove to be a massive game-changer as early as this week so I am going to tempter playoff and Super Bowl predictions until I know the health of this squad going in.

Praying for good health because I feel us Boston sports fans are long overdue for a championship. :coffee:
 
For the first time in my eyes they looked like a legit contender last night. The way they were hitting all night, their attitude, it reminded me of that '01 team. They had a kind of swagger. Still need to get a consistent run game going which they still have time to figure out.
 
So I realized that with the win over the Giants, the Patriots can now clinch the division and a playoff berth next game against the Bills. Whether the Bills win or lose this weekend and come in at 9-4 or 8-5, either way if the Patriots win they'll be at a minimum 3 games up with the tiebreaker, with 3 games left to play.
 
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