Unless Belichick flat out loses the team, the floor is 7 wins. That 6 game stretch in the middle section of the schedule, games 5-10, is good for 4 wins at minimum, probably 5 and quite possibly 6.
This season is incredibly difficult to predict because the biggest questions are around cohesion, buy-in, momentum, and player development. There's a scenario that isn't totally crazy that leads to 12 wins and a lot of momentum heading into the playoffs. And it's not "way out there:"
- Weeks 1-4: the team struggles to a 2-2 record. Say, winning 2 close games, dropping one close one and getting beat badly once. Barmore emerges as a game-changing beast, and Jennings solidifies the spot opposite Judon for base defenses. Marcus Jones flashes as a returner and one of the rookie Joneses gains confidence by holding his own when matched against Tyreek Hill.
The OL is hit and miss, but Mac shows the ability to make defenses pay for bringing pressure if they don't get to him. Smith flashes run after catch ability and Mac starts to develop chemistry with Bourne and Smith when he has to scramble away from pressure. RB is two two-headed monsters, with Harris and Stevenson split about 60/40 on running downs and Montgomery & Stephenson splitting about 75/25 on passing downs. Deep pass is hit and miss with Bourne and Agholor, but the mid-range passing (15-25 yards out, including the sidelines) starts to click across the board.
- Weeks 5-11: 6-0
including winning a "slobberknocker" against Indy where Wade is used extensively on an outside corner against a larger running team. Uche notches several sacks in this span, deployed as part of the pass defense sub unit with Barmore, Wise, Judon, and McMillan or Wilson paired with the safety/LB hybrids. Team gains confidence, as the defense starts to really gel, with the team embracing the importance of excellence their specific roles. The develop an identity as "contain & collapse," a swarming defense, and as being particularly hard on opposing TEs with their hybrid safeties.
On offense, Thornton starts to work his way into the field at times, and Agholor starts to be used more multiply, both as the "speed slot" and on the outside. The OL starts to gel, and the offense starts to "be like water," playing matchups against the specific defenses they face, giving Belichick & Co. a lot of chess pieces to work with: 6-7 very different WRs, 2 very different TEs, 3-4 very different RBs.
- Weeks 12-18: 4-3.
The OL comes together, and the running game kicks into high gear as Stephenson emerges as a true all-purpose back. Harris and Montgomery still contribute in their areas, though Strong has started to emerge as a speed receiving threat on passing downs. In the dome and desert games, Thornton shows he can hit the home run, and also flashes of threatening with yards after the catch on mid-range crossers that start to stress safeties and make them play him predictably to avoid getting burned. This opens up the underneath for Smith, Bourne, and Stephenson who are all serious threats after the catch, and allows the offensive play calling to start to really force the defense in particular directions.
On defense, Jon Jones has become a landmark chess piece. Sometimes playing boundary corner with Marcus Jones or Bryant lined up in the slot, sometimes playing in the slot with Jack Jones or Wade on the outside, depending on the size and speed of the opposing WRs. The overall improvement in defensive speed pays dividends as running/improvising QBs tend to run out of real estate, and the young secondary starts to be able to play faster on the more complex scheming elements. Jennings has started to show the pass defense in the pros that shone in college, and while Uche is the better pure pass rusher, Jennings has the flexibility to rush the passer, drop effectively into the passing lanes, or cover many TEs or RBs in man, opening up the defensive playbook. Barmore, Judon, and Uche are the core pass rush, and as the confidence and comfort of the defense increased the staff is able to incorporate complex blitzes from speed ILBs and safety/LB hybrids to pressure the middle of the pocket.
The interesting thing with that script above is that in almost every individual item there is an alternate path to a similar outcome. Nothing special in terms of development or performance is expected of Parker, Harris, Meyers, Montgomery, Henry, Bourne. There are plusses and minuses to which player emerges, but most of the key developments are very much either/or:
Either Wilson or McMillan,
1-2 of Wade/Jack/MJ/Bryant,
1-2 of Dugger/Peppers/Phillips/Bledsoe
Either Thornton/Agholor
Either Bourne/Smith
1-2 of Stephenson/Strong/Montgomery
1-2 of Jennings/Uche/McMillan
It's really all about buy-in & developing cohesion. As long as BB doesn't lose the team early, the schedule appears to argue that this team should be in the thick of a playoff hunt coming out of the bye and into week 12. Even if they start 0-4, or go 4-2 in the soft part of the schedule...if they come out of week 11 with at least 5 wins they've got a realistic shot at 10-7. 7 or 8 wins by that point is totally reasonable.
...unless they don't have buy-in, haven't developed cohesion, or built momentum in terms of the development of individuals or as a team.
And to do that, it's one game at a time; one practice at a time; one rep at a time. Get a little better every day.
Focus on Miami.
