Pats Trade #1 For Tee Higgins?

If they were smart they would move him now, they have basically three wrs that would be ones on many teams including Chase who is arguably the best in the league now.
Completely disagree. Two years ago, in the Super Bowl, where the Bengals were ahead with 2 minutes left, Higgins was their best receiver with 100 and 2 TDS. In the last second AFC championship playoff loss to the chiefs, who was their best receiver? Yes, it was Higgins again.


They are as close to being a championship winning franchise as they have been. When Diggs got dealt, he was disgruntled. When Hill got dealt, he wanted a new contract. Higgins, so far, is content to play on his super cheap deal. He is a proven playoff producer. It would be really, really dumb to trade him.

Smart teams do not trade high performing players on a rookie second round contract. It rarely if ever happens. That is why the Bengals have been able to spend money on OLine, because they don’t yet have money tied up in QB and WR.

When they do extend Burrow and Chase, those cap hits likely won’t be significant until 2025 or 2026. That is how those deals work: they stay team friendly in year 1 and sometimes in year 2. Don’t be surprised if Higgins gets franchised next year. I think that is far, far more likely than him getting traded this year.
 
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I believe any trade for #14 will not happen before draft day unless something ridiculous comes along. I really don't see any team doing a solid for BB and will trade from a position of need on draft day if there is a trade.
 
Completely disagree. Two years ago, in the Super Bowl, where the Bengals were ahead with 2 minutes left, Higgins was their best receiver with 100 and 2 TDS. In the last second AFC championship playoff loss to the chiefs, who was their best receiver? Yes, it was Higgins again.


They are as close to being a championship winning franchise as they have been. When Diggs got dealt, he was disgruntled. When Hill got dealt, he wanted a new contract. Higgins, so far, is content to play on his super cheap deal. He is a proven playoff producer. It would be really, really dumb to trade him.

Smart teams do not trade high performing players on a rookie second round contract. It rarely if ever happens. That is why the Bengals have been able to spend money on OLine, because they don’t yet have money tied up in QB and WR.

When they do extend Burrow and Chase, those cap hits likely won’t be significant until 2025 or 2026. That is how those deals work: they stay team friendly in year 1 and sometimes in year 2. Don’t be surprised if Higgins gets franchised next year. I think that is far, far more likely than him getting traded this year.
Certainly possible, but I still believe that now mtter how the deals are structured, they'll still end up with three players accounting for a massive percentage of their entire team cap. You can hid that for a few years, but by then they will have even more players looking for big ticket 2nd contracts, that's just the down side of having really successful drafts.
 
Most likely Peter Skoronski.
If they don't do anything significant at oline before the draft, I think it’s certainly likely. Could also see them trading down a half dozen spots if they go oline in the first, it's a pretty decent class and Bill always likes adding an additional 3rd or 4th.
 
Completely disagree. Two years ago, in the Super Bowl, where the Bengals were ahead with 2 minutes left, Higgins was their best receiver with 100 and 2 TDS. In the last second AFC championship playoff loss to the chiefs, who was their best receiver? Yes, it was Higgins again.


They are as close to being a championship winning franchise as they have been. When Diggs got dealt, he was disgruntled. When Hill got dealt, he wanted a new contract. Higgins, so far, is content to play on his super cheap deal. He is a proven playoff producer. It would be really, really dumb to trade him.

Smart teams do not trade high performing players on a rookie second round contract. It rarely if ever happens. That is why the Bengals have been able to spend money on OLine, because they don’t yet have money tied up in QB and WR.

When they do extend Burrow and Chase, those cap hits likely won’t be significant until 2025 or 2026. That is how those deals work: they stay team friendly in year 1 and sometimes in year 2. Don’t be surprised if Higgins gets franchised next year. I think that is far, far more likely than him getting traded this year.
:smilies-11117:
 
Certainly possible, but I still believe that now mtter how the deals are structured, they'll still end up with three players accounting for a massive percentage of their entire team cap. You can hid that for a few years, but by then they will have even more players looking for big ticket 2nd contracts, that's just the down side of having really successful drafts.

Well, then that's when trades are most likely to occur, when salaries or demands for them become unfeasible. That's what I understand is being said here.

Make sense to trade or let someone walk when there is an issue, not when you're staring straight at another feasible Superbowl run.

As Rabid said, it is not common to trade a player who is on a rookie deal not even asking, let alone demanding huge financial deal, let alone disgruntled.

It's certainly possible that I have missed this but what is the context of the Bengles even considering trading him? This question is open to anyone.
 
It's been speculation in the media but not without some feasibility. Logic simply being that he has two seasons left on his rookie deal, and the speculation is simple. 1. You have Borrows, Chase, and Higins, all will be looking at top 5 contracts within the next two years
Chase and Burrows may arguably be setting the market with the highest contracts at their positions.
2. No matter how you structure those contracts, if Higgins gets a top 5 contract as well, it will account for over a 3rd of the team's entire Cap on just 3 players. That's simply not manageable or smart.
3. That being the case, if they keep him this season, their trade value next season will likely be much less because teams will know they can't afford to keep him.
4. If they try and franchise him after next season it's even worse because it pays him the average of the top 5 wr contracts which will be about 38 million and that's an immediate cap hit for that year, and it can't be differed.
5.Given all that it makes perfect sense that they may consider a better package now, they could conceivably replace Higgins with a top 15 pick on a rookie contract and get anther 3rd or 4th rounder to fill a need elsewhere. It not as implausible as many here seem to think.
 
It's been speculation in the media but not without some feasibility. Logic simply being that he has two seasons left on his rookie deal, and the speculation is simple. 1. You have Borrows, Chase, and Higins, all will be looking at top 5 contracts within the next two years
Chase and Burrows may arguably be setting the market with the highest contracts at their positions.
2. No matter how you structure those contracts, if Higgins gets a top 5 contract as well, it will account for over a 3rd of the team's entire Cap on just 3 players. That's simply not manageable or smart.
3. That being the case, if they keep him this season, their trade value next season will likely be much less because teams will know they can't afford to keep him.
4. If they try and franchise him after next season it's even worse because it pays him the average of the top 5 wr contracts which will be about 38 million and that's an immediate cap hit for that year, and it can't be differed.
5.Given all that it makes perfect sense that they may consider a better package now, they could conceivably replace Higgins with a top 15 pick on a rookie contract and get anther 3rd or 4th rounder to fill a need elsewhere. It not as implausible as many here seem to think.
Again- disagree with most of this and in my opinion, it just doesn’t hold up to closer inspection. On the surface, if you squint, it almost makes sense- but in perspective, it is just plain silly.

This was primarily Phil Perry story, that got lots of clicks. While Phil is neither much of a journalist or a football mind, to his credit, this one took off.

The reality is the projected cost of tagging a wr in 2024 is less than 50% of what Grogan is saying. The current estimate is 24M, not 38M.


Additionally, there is a lack of understanding of how extensions work. When Josh Allen signed his 6 year 258M contract extension in Aug 2021, the cap hits were 10.2M in 2021, 16.2M in 2022, and 18.6M in 2023. The first big cap hit comes in 2024, at 47M. Similarly, the much maligned 5 year 230 fully guaranteed Deshaun Watson deal of 22 carried cap hits of 9M in 2022 and 19M in 2023. He will likely get a dummy year tacked on in 2024. But the point is, the first two years of bony acts that average 40M are typically half of the average value.

Joe Burrow is scheduled to be a free agent in 2025. However, the team can renegotiate his contract at any time now. Chase is eligible to be a free agent in 2026. His contract can be renegotiated after 2023. The Bengals can sign Burrow to an extension this summer to a deal that is cap friendly until 2025 or later, Chase to cap friendly mega-deal that doesn’t have teeth until 2026 and tag Higgins in 2024 for 24M.

Even tagged, Higgins, Burrow and Chase are likely to collectively count less than 50M against a $250M cap in 2024 and under 22M in 2023. The “I think the Bengals should trade Higgins” crowd not only ignore all of this; they also fail to consider that Burrow could choose to leave if the Bengals just dump Higgins because he might be too expensive. They want a happy Burrow in negotiations, not an angry one. Burrow could skip the extension, go back to back franchise tag in 2025 and 2026, then be too cost prohibitive to keep.

Finally, if the 50M was too steep in 2024, which I doubt it is, players such as Jarvis Landry, Dee Ford, and Frank Clark have all been tagged and traded. In the Frank Clark trade, the Seahawks hit a 2019 first snd a 2020 second from the Chiefs, who are a well run franchise. So, it is not like tagging a player makes them low trade value.
 
Again- disagree with most of this and in my opinion, it just doesn’t hold up to closer inspection. On the surface, if you squint, it almost makes sense- but in perspective, it is just plain silly.

This was primarily Phil Perry story, that got lots of clicks. While Phil is neither much of a journalist or a football mind, to his credit, this one took off.

The reality is the projected cost of tagging a wr in 2024 is less than 50% of what Grogan is saying. The current estimate is 24M, not 38M.


Additionally, there is a lack of understanding of how extensions work. When Josh Allen signed his 6 year 258M contract extension in Aug 2021, the cap hits were 10.2M in 2021, 16.2M in 2022, and 18.6M in 2023. The first big cap hit comes in 2024, at 47M. Similarly, the much maligned 5 year 230 fully guaranteed Deshaun Watson deal of 22 carried cap hits of 9M in 2022 and 19M in 2023. He will likely get a dummy year tacked on in 2024. But the point is, the first two years of bony acts that average 40M are typically half of the average value.

Joe Burrow is scheduled to be a free agent in 2025. However, the team can renegotiate his contract at any time now. Chase is eligible to be a free agent in 2026. His contract can be renegotiated after 2023. The Bengals can sign Burrow to an extension this summer to a deal that is cap friendly until 2025 or later, Chase to cap friendly mega-deal that doesn’t have teeth until 2026 and tag Higgins in 2024 for 24M.

Even tagged, Higgins, Burrow and Chase are likely to collectively count less than 50M against a $250M cap in 2024 and under 22M in 2023. The “I think the Bengals should trade Higgins” crowd not only ignore all of this; they also fail to consider that Burrow could choose to leave if the Bengals just dump Higgins because he might be too expensive. They want a happy Burrow in negotiations, not an angry one. Burrow could skip the extension, go back to back franchise tag in 2025 and 2026, then be too cost prohibitive to keep.

Finally, if the 50M was too steep in 2024, which I doubt it is, players such as Jarvis Landry, Dee Ford, and Frank Clark have all been tagged and traded. In the Frank Clark trade, the Seahawks hit a 2019 first snd a 2020 second from the Chiefs, who are a well run franchise. So, it is not like tagging a player makes them low trade value.

Well, DAYAM!
 
Let's say that OT and WR are our biggest needs. Not an uncommon view.

Then the game becomes how to fill both given the apparent bounty of the Draft. And that seems almost impossible
unless we get really lucky.

Tee Higgins for a 2nd would most likely be a far better option than anybody we could draft using 14 as our
ammunition. Were he a draft eligiible player showing the skill he has shown after a few seasons in the Show, then he'd run rings
around the competition. None of the options in late April are close to his level right now, but that is part of the
mystery of the Draft. You seldom get a sure thing, but every year somebody gets one hell of a bargain. If you want a WR then
maybe one of the rookie candidates can be his equal, but it takes years of work and a bunch of risk. Higgins is already
proven and probably can continue to develop. Getting him for 46 represents a heist of massive proportions and Cincy
isn't that desperate.

Tell me that we get Tee Higgins and Darnell Wright and still have a shitload of choices to use and I'd tell you we just got won a
Draft that is not exactly loaded at either position. More on Wright later, but I haven't seen anybody that is on his level yet and yet he seems to
have some significant concerns for some. I liked Dawand Jones until I watched this guy and if he isn't a top 15 player and
definitely capable of playing of having a great career at OT, then I'm a blind homer. Wright is the guy we need and I'd race
to the podium at 14 to either take him or trade the pick for Higgins.

With a month to go, I'm not fired up over this Draft, but these scenarios would change that in a hurry and I don't care which.
Yeah, that draft scenario would be ideal.
 
Again- disagree with most of this and in my opinion, it just doesn’t hold up to closer inspection. On the surface, if you squint, it almost makes sense- but in perspective, it is just plain silly.

This was primarily Phil Perry story, that got lots of clicks. While Phil is neither much of a journalist or a football mind, to his credit, this one took off.

The reality is the projected cost of tagging a wr in 2024 is less than 50% of what Grogan is saying. The current estimate is 24M, not 38M.


Additionally, there is a lack of understanding of how extensions work. When Josh Allen signed his 6 year 258M contract extension in Aug 2021, the cap hits were 10.2M in 2021, 16.2M in 2022, and 18.6M in 2023. The first big cap hit comes in 2024, at 47M. Similarly, the much maligned 5 year 230 fully guaranteed Deshaun Watson deal of 22 carried cap hits of 9M in 2022 and 19M in 2023. He will likely get a dummy year tacked on in 2024. But the point is, the first two years of bony acts that average 40M are typically half of the average value.

Joe Burrow is scheduled to be a free agent in 2025. However, the team can renegotiate his contract at any time now. Chase is eligible to be a free agent in 2026. His contract can be renegotiated after 2023. The Bengals can sign Burrow to an extension this summer to a deal that is cap friendly until 2025 or later, Chase to cap friendly mega-deal that doesn’t have teeth until 2026 and tag Higgins in 2024 for 24M.

Even tagged, Higgins, Burrow and Chase are likely to collectively count less than 50M against a $250M cap in 2024 and under 22M in 2023. The “I think the Bengals should trade Higgins” crowd not only ignore all of this; they also fail to consider that Burrow could choose to leave if the Bengals just dump Higgins because he might be too expensive. They want a happy Burrow in negotiations, not an angry one. Burrow could skip the extension, go back to back franchise tag in 2025 and 2026, then be too cost prohibitive to keep.

Finally, if the 50M was too steep in 2024, which I doubt it is, players such as Jarvis Landry, Dee Ford, and Frank Clark have all been tagged and traded. In the Frank Clark trade, the Seahawks hit a 2019 first snd a 2020 second from the Chiefs, who are a well run franchise. So, it is not like tagging a player makes them low trade value.
Phil Perry had nothing to do with this story.
 
Again- disagree with most of this and in my opinion, it just doesn’t hold up to closer inspection. On the surface, if you squint, it almost makes sense- but in perspective, it is just plain silly.

This was primarily Phil Perry story, that got lots of clicks. While Phil is neither much of a journalist or a football mind, to his credit, this one took off.

The reality is the projected cost of tagging a wr in 2024 is less than 50% of what Grogan is saying. The current estimate is 24M, not 38M.


Additionally, there is a lack of understanding of how extensions work. When Josh Allen signed his 6 year 258M contract extension in Aug 2021, the cap hits were 10.2M in 2021, 16.2M in 2022, and 18.6M in 2023. The first big cap hit comes in 2024, at 47M. Similarly, the much maligned 5 year 230 fully guaranteed Deshaun Watson deal of 22 carried cap hits of 9M in 2022 and 19M in 2023. He will likely get a dummy year tacked on in 2024. But the point is, the first two years of bony acts that average 40M are typically half of the average value.

Joe Burrow is scheduled to be a free agent in 2025. However, the team can renegotiate his contract at any time now. Chase is eligible to be a free agent in 2026. His contract can be renegotiated after 2023. The Bengals can sign Burrow to an extension this summer to a deal that is cap friendly until 2025 or later, Chase to cap friendly mega-deal that doesn’t have teeth until 2026 and tag Higgins in 2024 for 24M.

Even tagged, Higgins, Burrow and Chase are likely to collectively count less than 50M against a $250M cap in 2024 and under 22M in 2023. The “I think the Bengals should trade Higgins” crowd not only ignore all of this; they also fail to consider that Burrow could choose to leave if the Bengals just dump Higgins because he might be too expensive. They want a happy Burrow in negotiations, not an angry one. Burrow could skip the extension, go back to back franchise tag in 2025 and 2026, then be too cost prohibitive to keep.

Finally, if the 50M was too steep in 2024, which I doubt it is, players such as Jarvis Landry, Dee Ford, and Frank Clark have all been tagged and traded. In the Frank Clark trade, the Seahawks hit a 2019 first snd a 2020 second from the Chiefs, who are a well run franchise. So, it is not like tagging a player makes them low trade value.
You can disagree all you like but your closer inspection is based on you assuming things like Burrows talking a home town deal. Not to mention you are not taking into account the escalation of the franchise tags. To tag a wr this year is just under 20 million, nearly 35% more than it cost last off season, follow that math out two years when they would actually have to tag him and you are easily pushing 30 million plus. One or two big contracts and easily jumps to the low 49s. Then your assuming a wr in his prime is going to agree to play on a one year tag, that's highly improbable. You really think that Higgins is going to play on a franchise tag while at the same time he watches his team make Chase the highest paid wr in the game. I would say the exact same thing to you, on closer inspection your post doesn't pass the sniff test.
 
You can disagree all you like but your closer inspection is based on you assuming things like Burrows talking a home town deal. Not to mention you are not taking into account the escalation of the franchise tags. To tag a wr this year is just under 20 million, nearly 35% more than it cost last off season, follow that math out two years when they would actually have to tag him and you are easily pushing 30 million plus. One or two big contracts and easily jumps to the low 49s. Then your assuming a wr in his prime is going to agree to play on a one year tag, that's highly improbable. You really think that Higgins is going to play on a franchise tag while at the same time he watches his team make Chase the highest paid wr in the game. I would say the exact same thing to you, on closer inspection your post doesn't pass the sniff test.
So this will be my last rebuttal, unless folks to continue to post things that aren’t true- and then I will just chill and let people have their own opinions.

However, you are way off base on two counts.
1) I am not guessing that Burrow takes any kind of hometown discount. What I am expecting, is that his contract will be like every other major contract extension of at least 5 years works for young QB, like Mahomes, Allen, Watson, etc. All of those contracts are huge with lots of guaranteed money, but they are low cap hits for the first two years. I have provided plenty of examples. If you disagree, go find a 5 year QB extension that has a big cap hit the first two years. You will find some that have big hits for aging veterans like Cousins, Russ or Rodgers, but not young guys getting their first extension. It isn’t done that way. But, if you think I wrong- which you are saying, show me those second contract elite QB extensions that have immediate cap ramifications. I don’t think you will find any.

2) Your facts are wrong.
The 2022 franchise tag for wr’s was 18.4 million unless you were getting the 120% salary kicker.
The 2023 franchise tag for wr’s was 19.7 (see my previous link). That is less than a 10% increase- not a 35% increase.

The Over the Cap link that I posted, is for 2024. A thing that compresses the tag is that is is based on the highest salaries over the past five years.
“Under the non-exclusive tag, the player is given a one-year deal based on an average of the top five salaries at the respective position over the last five years”

Your numbers are just based on your own ideas- there are no independent respected sources that align with your expectation of 38M. That is the expected QB number, not the WR number. Over the cap is the go to source for cap matters.

3) Higgins might refuse a tag and want a trade after 2023, and then the Bengals can trade him. I am open to you posting a list of all the players who were on their rookie contracts for a contender, outperforming it, not complaining and beloved by their teammates and then got traded. If it is a list, and I don’t think you can make one- it will be a very short one.

So- blast away, hopefully with some quality data to back up your opinions. I would love for you to change my mind. I will just go back to lurking- as I don’t need to clutter up this thread anymore. If someone comes in with something fact based, rationale and makes sense for both the Bengals and the Pats- I will make sure to come back and give it a like and a good posting.
 
So this will be my last rebuttal, unless folks to continue to post things that aren’t true- and then I will just chill and let people have their own opinions.

However, you are way off base on two counts.
1) I am not guessing that Burrow takes any kind of hometown discount. What I am expecting, is that his contract will be like every other major contract extension of at least 5 years works for young QB, like Mahomes, Allen, Watson, etc. All of those contracts are huge with lots of guaranteed money, but they are low cap hits for the first two years. I have provided plenty of examples. If you disagree, go find a 5 year QB extension that has a big cap hit the first two years. You will find some that have big hits for aging veterans like Cousins, Russ or Rodgers, but not young guys getting their first extension. It isn’t done that way. But, if you think I wrong- which you are saying, show me those second contract elite QB extensions that have immediate cap ramifications. I don’t think you will find any.

2) Your facts are wrong.
The 2022 franchise tag for wr’s was 18.4 million unless you were getting the 120% salary kicker.
The 2023 franchise tag for wr’s was 19.7 (see my previous link). That is less than a 10% increase- not a 35% increase.

The Over the Cap link that I posted, is for 2024. A thing that compresses the tag is that is is based on the highest salaries over the past five years.
“Under the non-exclusive tag, the player is given a one-year deal based on an average of the top five salaries at the respective position over the last five years”

Your numbers are just based on your own ideas- there are no independent respected sources that align with your expectation of 38M. That is the expected QB number, not the WR number. Over the cap is the go to source for cap matters.

3) Higgins might refuse a tag and want a trade after 2023, and then the Bengals can trade him. I am open to you posting a list of all the players who were on their rookie contracts for a contender, outperforming it, not complaining and beloved by their teammates and then got traded. If it is a list, and I don’t think you can make one- it will be a very short one.

So- blast away, hopefully with some quality data to back up your opinions. I would love for you to change my mind. I will just go back to lurking- as I don’t need to clutter up this thread anymore. If someone comes in with something fact based, rationale and makes sense for both the Bengals and the Pats- I will make sure to come back and give it a like and a good posting.
What is the top contract for a wr this off season anyway? 3 years 11 million including incentives? That isn't going to shake the market.
 
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