Perspective

Flagg the Wanderer

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Everyone talks about "sure fire Pro-Bowlers" and every year having picks in the top 5 are going to change your franchise. Fans lose their minds when GMs blow a first rounder.

The reality is that 1st rounders are far from a sure thing, and fans need to have some perspective on just how much of a crapshoot the draft is.

Presenting the first rounders who should be going into the 10th years of their illustrious, dominant NFL careers:

1​
1​
1​
Eric Fisher​
Chiefs​
T​
Central Michigan​
1​
2​
2​
Luke Joeckel​
Jaguars​
T​
Texas A&M​
1​
3​
3​
Dion Jordan​
Dolphins​
DE​
Oregon​
1​
4​
4​
Lane Johnson​
Eagles​
T​
Oklahoma​
1​
5​
5​
Ezekiel Ansah​
Lions​
DE​
Brigham Young​
1​
6​
6​
Barkevious Mingo​
Browns​
DE​
Louisiana State​
1​
7​
7​
Jonathan Cooper​
Cardinals​
G​
North Carolina​
1​
8​
8​
Tavon Austin​
Rams​
WR​
West Virginia​
1​
9​
9​
Dee Milliner​
Jets​
DB​
Alabama​
1​
10​
10​
Chance Warmack​
Titans​
G​
Alabama​
1​
11​
11​
D.J. Fluker​
Chargers​
T​
Alabama​
1​
12​
12​
D.J. Hayden​
Raiders​
DB​
Houston​
1​
13​
13​
Sheldon Richardson​
Jets​
DT​
Missouri​
1​
14​
14​
Star Lotulelei​
Panthers​
DT​
Utah​
1​
15​
15​
Kenny Vaccaro​
Saints​
DB​
Texas​
1​
16​
16​
EJ Manuel​
Bills​
QB​
Florida State​
1​
17​
17​
Jarvis Jones​
Steelers​
LB​
Georgia​
1​
18​
18​
Eric Reid​
49ers​
DB​
Louisiana State​
1​
19​
19​
Justin Pugh​
Giants​
T​
Syracuse​
1​
20​
20​
Kyle Long​
Bears​
G​
Oregon​
1​
21​
21​
Tyler Eifert​
Bengals​
TE​
Notre Dame​
1​
22​
22​
Desmond Trufant​
Falcons​
DB​
Washington​
1​
23​
23​
Sharrif Floyd​
Vikings​
DT​
Florida​
1​
24​
24​
Bjoern Werner​
Colts​
DE​
Florida State​
1​
25​
25​
Xavier Rhodes​
Vikings​
DB​
Florida State​
1​
26​
26​
Datone Jones​
Packers​
DE​
UCLA​
1​
27​
27​
DeAndre Hopkins​
Texans​
WR​
Clemson​
1​
28​
28​
Sylvester Williams​
Broncos​
DT​
North Carolina​
1​
29​
29​
Cordarrelle Patterson​
Vikings​
WR​
Tennessee​
1​
30​
30​
Alec Ogletree​
Rams​
LB​
Georgia​
1​
31​
31​
Travis Frederick​
Cowboys​
C​
Wisconsin​
1​
32​
32​
Matt Elam​
Ravens​
DB​
Florida​
 

HSanders

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not that i measure much by the pro bowl, but heard today that only about 37% of all first rounders even get to one, ever.
 

Ryan91

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Only ones still playing amongst those first round picks are:

Lane Johnson (4th overall) - still with Eagles
Justin Pugh (19th overall) - now with Cardinals
DeAndre Hopkins (27th overall) - now with Cardinals
Cordarrelle Patterson (29th overall) - now with Falcons

Matt Elam is also still playing, albeit in the CFL, for the Edmonton Elks

The rest are either Retired or are Free Agents
 
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Flagg the Wanderer

Flagg the Wanderer

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I'll add that it isn't like there were no notables available. Zach Ertz & Travis Kelce, the Honey Badger we're all picked in rounds 2 & 3, just at a glance.

But seriously, spend some time looking at just round 1 picks on drafthistory, and you'll be amazed at just how little the draft gurus and general consensus know.

One draft guru, who goes by Flagg the Wanderer, once proclaimed a Patriots draft to be so good that when we look at the team in five years, we'd look to [that] draft as the launch point. And in fairness, the Patriots did win a Superbowl within five years of that day. Thank goodness for The Alliteration Draft:
 

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chevss454

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HSanders

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putting this here too, seems a good fit
 

foobahl

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putting this here too, seems a good fit
Seedy Lamb sounds like some obscure Greek dish.
 
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Flagg the Wanderer

Flagg the Wanderer

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Grades for the draft I posted above. There is some comedy here. I didn't get too far, but I loved the part where they gave the Cardinals a B+ - they loved the draft overall, but marked them down for wasting a pick in the 3rd: "Jordan Hill or Brandon Williams in the third would have made more sense than drafting troubled nickel corner Tyrann Mathieu to play safety."

No one knows anything. All the studying everyone does is essentially to come to grips with the sorts of ways you are willing to be wrong vs the ways you aren't. The teams are trying to maximize opportunity, limit volatility, and raise their floor. The talking heads are trying to raise their profile, which they'd love to do by being right, but they're just as happy to do by running down the people in front offices who have skin in the game. And when they don't know, they're going to take stances that praise insiders who give them good information, and punish those who don't talk to them or give them bad information.
 

Big/Sky/Fly

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TB12 falling to the 6th should tell everyone how accurate the draft really is.

All that really matters is no one will know how good this draft is until years afterwards.

It's easy to get sucked into the hype though...with the media and the "guru's".
 
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Flagg the Wanderer

Flagg the Wanderer

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Here's the only team to earn a flat A from BR in 2013. Because of course they did.
 

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O_P_T

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Gee, and I thought this thread would be about this

@ the 19:50 mark

 

TipRoast

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Here's the thing about the draft - a team picks 7 or so players. Most teams also sign a bunch of UDFAs and free agents.

Teams then bring into training camp all the players that are still under contract from the previous year, plus all the new guys.

There are too many guys in training camp to fit onto the final roster, so some players are cut. Some of these players are the draft picks and the UDFAs and free agents that were just brought in the most recent off-season.

Do all the players that get cut represent a bad decision by the GM and the scouting staff? Bear in mind that it's not just the Patriots, it's every team in the league that does this. Are all the GMs in the league making bad decisions at draft time? Or is it just that fans don't recognize that the process of winnowing the wheat from the chaff means that not every draft pick is going to hit?
 

Hawg73

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Much like the United States of America, the NFL Draft does not guarantee it's citizens success, it merely provides a framework, a CHANCE for success and the
instant superstars that have emerged out of the scrum have skewed the public's perception of just how rare that really is. For every draft that spawned a
half-dozen Hall of Famers in it's 1st round there are 10 or more where going through the names now it's hard to recognize more than a handful that had
solid NFL careers. It's not an exact science or any other kind of science.

Don't get me wrong. I love the process of trying to absorb as much info as I can each Spring, but it's really become a carnival and this year the Vegas scene
was really strange with Donny Osmond hugging the shit out of everybody and Wayne Newton reprising "Bessy the Heifer" while wearing a vinyl-yet-perfectly-tanned
face and Rich Eisen being disrespectful to the Blue Man Group.

It's fucking football, people. Let's watch them strap it up and don't GRADE a draft until you see how they do.

Most people are wrong when it comes to projecting talent. Nobody is great at it. Nobody, so whoever wants to get worked up over what the Pats did can kiss my ass, because
they don't know what they're talking about.
 

TipRoast

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Here's an interesting perspective: two days prior to the draft, the Ravens traded their WR1, Marquise Brown, for a first round draft choice.

The Ravens had 11 picks in the draft, and none of them were used on the wide receiver position.

But let's give them major props for conducting a great draft and having their poop in a group.
 

Big/Sky/Fly

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Here's an interesting perspective: two days prior to the draft, the Ravens traded their WR1, Marquise Brown, for a first round draft choice.

The Ravens had 11 picks in the draft, and none of them were used on the wide receiver position.

But let's give them major props for conducting a great draft and having their poop in a group.
When you have a RB for a QB...you can do that. They drafted 2 TE's. Also, they did sign a bunch of WR's.

 
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