ESPN's Adam Schefter
reported Tuesday that Rodgers turned down a deal this offseason that would have made him the highest-paid quarterback in the NFL.
What happens if a theoretical Rodgers trade actually happened?
To test the outcome of a Rodgers trade, we re-ran our simulation 10,000 times with
Jordan Love, the 26th pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, as the Packers' quarterback and Rodgers as the Broncos' quarterback, along with adjustments to the teams' power ratings commensurate with the move. The last part is a little more art than science, as well as circular, as we have to somewhat guess how the markets would react and how these reactions would affect our underlying models, but alas.
In such an adjustment, the Packers would fall to 25th in PFF's ELO ratings, about two points worse than the average team on a neutral field, and the Broncos rise to third, about five points better than the average team on a neutral field. This is generally in line with the information available on our
NFL power rankings page, with some adjustments for Rodgers switching teams and Love playing under the tutelage of a pretty
good offensive play caller in Matt LaFleur.
The Denver win total goes from 7.5 to 10.2 wins, which is a bit less than the loss incurred by Green Bay because the AFC is a stronger conference and there is a price taken on when a player goes from one team to another. Denver becomes a favorite to make the playoffs but is still a big underdog to win the AFC West or the Super Bowl. However, Rodgers' addition, understandably, decreases the Chiefs' Super Bowl probability to about 13%, below the market break-even probability of 16.7%.
Aaron Rodgers reportedly turned down a massive contract extension with the Green Bay Packers this offseason, further fueling trade rumors for the 2020 NFL MVP.
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