Random football stuff 2025

Pelissero with an article on NFL.com that names the coaches whose stars are rising for the next cycle of hires.

Don't you just know that with Drake doing so well that his coaches behind the scenes might get a good look.

Patriots passing game coordinator/TE coach Thomas Brown, 39: A one-time Falcons draft pick at running back whose playing days were cut short by injury, Brown moved swiftly into coaching, winning a Super Bowl with the Rams and old high school rival Sean McVay, who has called Brown "one of the greatest competitors I've ever been around." Brown was collateral damage in disasters surrounding the No. 1 overall pick the past two years. In 2023, he was in a back-and-forth play-calling situation with Bryce Young in Carolina, when the Panthers fired Frank Reich after 11 games. With Chicago last year, while Caleb Williams was struggling, Brown was promoted to interim OC (to replace the fired Shane Waldron) and head coach (to replace the fired Matt Eberflus) in an 18-day span. The Bears won their final game under Brown, stunning the Packers at Lambeau Field to end a 10-game losing streak. When he interviewed for the Patriots' OC job later that month, Mike Vrabel was so impressed, he found a spot for Brown on staff. Brown is no stranger to the interview circuit, having spoken with the Dolphins, Texans, Titans and Bears about their head-coaching jobs over the past four Januarys, respectively. With the Patriots rolling, Brown could get a look again.

He also mentions that QB coach Ashton Grant is one to watch in a year or two.

 
I keep reading and hearing that "parity" explains why teams like the Patriots, Broncos, and Colts are doing well this year.

Whatever the explanation really is, it's definitely not parity.

We can split the league into three tiers (we can do this kind of analysis for every year):
  • the teams doing well (more than 2 games over .500): Patriots, Broncos, Colts, Chargers, Bills, Rams, Eagles, Seahawks, Bears, Packers, 49ers
  • the teams doing poorly (more than 2 games under .500): Dolphins, Bengals, Raiders, Jets, Browns, Titans, Cardinals, Falcons, Redskins, Saints, Giants
  • the teams in the middle: the rest of the league (10 teams)
As you can see, 2/3 in the league are in one of the first two categories. If parity really was occurring, I'd expect to see around 2/3 of the teams, perhaps more, to have records within a game or two of .500.

What's going on this year is not parity, but volatility. Some of recent (last 5 years) successful franchises are now hovering around .500, and so that makes people break out the "parity" word. But that's not what's going on.

(And yes, I know that when "parity" is used as a descriptor for the NFL that the league explains it as "parity of opportunity, not parity in results" - but that's not the way most people interpret the word when used to describe what their expectations are for what they see in the standings.)
 
10 Favorites to win NFL MVP
Player, Team Odds
Matthew Stafford, Rams +150
Drake Maye, Patriots +175
Josh Allen, Bills +550
Jonathan Taylor, Colts +750
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs +2200
Jalen Hurts, Eagles +4000
Jared Goff, Lions +5000
Sam Darnold, Seahawks +6000
Jordan Love, Packers +6000
Baker Mayfield, Bucs +7500
Odds by ESPN BET
 
Brandon Aiyuk's Contract Situation
Contract Guarantees Voided

The San Francisco 49ers have voided the guaranteed money in Brandon Aiyuk's contract for the 2026 season, which amounts to approximately $27 million. This decision was made due to Aiyuk's failure to meet certain contractual obligations, including missing team meetings and activities while recovering from a knee injury.
Current Status

Aiyuk has been on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list since July 2025, following a severe knee injury sustained in October 2024. Although he was expected to return this season, his status remains uncertain as he has not yet been medically cleared to practice. Coach Kyle Shanahan has expressed hope for Aiyuk's return but acknowledged the unusual nature of the situation.
Team Dynamics

Aiyuk's teammates have shown support for him during this challenging time. They have maintained contact and expressed hope for his recovery and return to the field. However, there appears to be a disconnect between Aiyuk and the team's management regarding his rehabilitation and participation.
Future Prospects

With the regular season nearing its end, speculation about Aiyuk's future with the 49ers is growing. If he does not return to play, it is likely that the team will part ways with him after the season concludes.
 
Current standings have the Bills as the 7th seed. The Chiefs, even with their win, are now the 10th.

Screenshot 2025-11-23 at 5.42.37 PM.png

Next week's Bills @ Steelers game is a must win for both teams, because the Chargers and the Jaguars (:barf:) are probable winners.

The same is true for the Chiefs @ Cowboys - the loser is likely playing golf in January.
 
Current standings have the Bills as the 7th seed. The Chiefs, even with their win, are now the 10th.

View attachment 37343

Next week's Bills @ Steelers game is a must win for both teams, because the Chargers and the Jaguars (:barf:) are probable winners.

The same is true for the Chiefs @ Cowboys - the loser is likely playing golf in January.
On one hand, the Chiefs are tied with two teams that have tiebreakers over them, which is nice.

But they aren't going to stay tied.

Steelers have Bills, @Lions, and the Ravens twice, and they're not a very good team to begin with. I'm not 100% certain you'd want to chalk up @Browns as a win, even. They're done. Which is too bad, because I'd love to face them in January.
Houston's a team on the rise, and worthy of a playoff birth. But their schedule is a horror show: @Chiefs, @Chargers, and Colts twice, plus a Cardinals team that isn't good, but is dangerous. If they make the playoffs, they'll have earned it. And I kinda hope they don't.

I'm rooting hard for LA, Pittsburgh, and Jacksonville, but I'm not optimistic.
 
Current standings have the Bills as the 7th seed. The Chiefs, even with their win, are now the 10th.

View attachment 37343

Next week's Bills @ Steelers game is a must win for both teams, because the Chargers and the Jaguars (:barf:) are probable winners.

The same is true for the Chiefs @ Cowboys - the loser is likely playing golf in January.
Tiebreakers are likely going to make or break 1-2 teams' postseason dreams. Those tiebreakers between two teams are, in order, as follows:
W-L percentage
Head-to-head
Division W-L record percentage
Conference W-L record percentage

If the above still hasn't decided it:
Strength of victory in all games
Strength of schedule in all games
Best combined ranking in conference games in terms of points scored and points allowed in those games
Best combined ranking in ALL games in terms of points scored and points allowed in all games
Best net points in common games
Best net points in ALL games
Best net touchdowns in ALL games
Coin toss
Yo' mama so ugly contest live at the Apollo Theater

(So maybe not the last one but it should be a recommendation made at the owner's meetings this offseason)
 
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