The Chiefs will miss the playoffs again
Two things I think are equally true. First, the Chiefs got better this offseason. Second, it isn't going to be enough.
Kansas City's roster is once again quite shaky. The Chiefs did a commendable job of building around their tentpole players (
Patrick Mahomes,
Travis Kelce and
Chris Jones) for a while. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo's uncanny ability to turn middle-round defensive backs into viable starters allowed them to endure the departures of
Charvarius Ward,
L'Jarius Sneed and Tyrann Mathieu. Offensive linemen were
acquired --
Joe Thuney and
Orlando Brown Jr. -- then quickly replaced.
But the well eventually runs dry.
Jawaan Taylor was
supposed to be a cornerstone at right tackle. Safety
Chamarri Conner was supposed to be another Spagnuolo success story.
Felix Anudike-Uzomah would bring much-needed juice on the edge. Wide receiver
Hollywood Brown would alleviate the lost effect of
Tyreek Hill. Contenders with pricey rosters must be constantly innovating in scheme and finding low-salaried contributors in both the draft and free agency. General manager Brett Veach failed to do his part, while coach Andy Reid's offense grew stale.
Of particular concern was the Chiefs' handoff game. It didn't exist. In theory, physical downhill runners
Isiah Pacheco and
Kareem Hunt would keep their shotgun-heavy offense on schedule, forcing opposing defenses to at least respect the ground game. But Pacheco and Hunt so painfully lacked explosion that defenses never had to fear a light box giving up a big run. The 2024 and 2025 Chiefs had two of the three least explosive seasons on running back carries this century.
Of course, the front office saw this and
added Kenneth Walker III, a home run hitter and the reigning Super Bowl MVP. But ideally, running back is one of those positions with which a contending team wins in the financial margins. The Chiefs had to pay sticker price to sign Walker because of their inability to develop an alternative. That means they have less room for error in places like the secondary, where both
Jaylen Watson and
Trent McDuffie are
no longer taking snaps. And at receiver, where
Rashee Rice must
once again be the load-bearing wall of a thin group.
play
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Riddick after Mahomes extension: Chiefs love absolutely everything about him
The Chiefs are halfway through taking some of their contract lumps and reconstructing the roster into a younger, cheaper and deeper group. Jones has no guaranteed money left on his deal after 2026. Kelce is essentially on year-to-year deals at this point. The Chiefs are preparing for a new era, but they aren't there just yet.
As such, while I expect a better Chiefs team in 2026 -- one that actually gets big gains on the ground and gets after the passer more consistently with rookies
Peter Woods and
R Mason Thomas -- I don't expect a viable AFC West contender. The Broncos have a clearly better roster across the board. The Chargers are fairly equal in talent and might explode offensively under
new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel. The rest of the conference remains as deep and intimidating as always. There are only seven playoff spots to go around, and I don't think the Chiefs have a top-seven roster in the AFC.
And that's before we get to the Mahomes injury. A
torn ACL in December is nothing to sneeze at, even if his recovery looks like it's
going well. Every game Mahomes doesn't play in September is a game the Chiefs might fall behind in the division and in the conference. Even if Mahomes suits up for the season opener
against Denver, it's fair to wonder about his scrambling ability -- a critical part of Kansas City's passing success -- as he gains confidence in his knee. An early-season loss could be the difference come playoff seeding time.
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