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Flagg the Wanderer

Flagg the Wanderer

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What do we know about this Patriots team? They handle adversity well. Let's take this one step at a time, okay?

1) This team, even without Ty Law, is better than the 2001 team.
Comparison:
Offense:
QB: 2001 Brady v. 2004 Brady.
RB: Smith v. Dillon
WR1: Brown v. Branch (push)
WR2: Patten v. Givens (push - slight edge to Givens)
WR3: Charles Johnson v. Patten
WR4: Fred Coleman v. Brown
TE: Wiggins v. Graham
TE2: Rutledge c. Fauria
OT: 2001 Light v. 2004 Light
OT: GRR v. Gorin (push)
OG: 2001 Andruzzi v. 2004 Andruzzi
OG: Compton v. Neal (and it's close)
OC: Woody v. Koppen (push - Koppen on brains and guts, Woody on physical dominance)

Defense:
DL:
Hamilton, Mitchell, 2001 Seymour, Pleasant (Parker, McGinest)
v.
Warren, Wilfork, 2004 Seymour (Green, Traylor, Hill, McGinest) (actually prettly close on the starters with Seymour dinged up, but the ability to play a rotation wins this running away).

LB:
2001 Vrabel, 2001 Bruschi, 2001 Phifer (McGinest, Chatham, Izzo, Cox, Johnson)
v.
2004 Vrabel, 2004 Bruschi, 2004 Johnson, 2004 McGinest (Colvin, Phifer, Izzo, Chatham, Banta-Cain, Davis)(2001 Phifer is a big loss, but Bruschi, Johnson, McGoo have all improved, Colvin and Chatham are better)

DB:
2001 Law, Smith, Milloy, Jones (Shaw, Buckley, Harris, Cherry, Stevens)
v.
Gay, Samuel, Harrison, Wilson (Moreland, Reid, Davis, Cherry, Brown)
...but it's close, because while 2001 Law is a huge loss, Harrison/Wilson are a monumental upgrade from Milloy/Jones. But the depth wins it for 2001, as Shaw and Buckley were a solid CB 3/4.
(sidenote not relevant to this game: this group WITH Law/Poole is freaking outstanding).

Overall the team is definately better - particularly on offense.
We can see this particularly in rankings (2004 vs. 2001):
Offense yardage: 7 vs. 19
Offense scoring: 4 vs. 6
Defense yardage: 9 vs. 24
Defense scoring: 2 vs. 6

Now, the 2004 Colts are scary. But they're no where near the team the 2001 Rams were:

Offensive scoring:
Colts: #1 (522 points)
Rams: #1 (503 points)

Offensive yardage:
Colts: #2 (6584 yards)
Rams: #1 (6930 yards)

Defensive scoring:
Colts: #19 (351 points allowed)
Rams: #7 (273 points allowed)

Defensive yardage:
Colts: #29 (5929 yards allowed)
Rams: #3 (4733 yards allowed)

Indy has faced top 10 defenses only 4 times, with their best output in those 4 games 24 points. Well, 5 times if you count the Denver game, but they were tanking that game, and even though it would help my numbers I'm not going to count that one.

Week 1: @ New England (#2 Scoring Defense) 24 points
Week 2: @ TEN (#30) 31 points
Week 3: v. GB (#23) 45 points
Week 4: @ JAX (#7) 24 points
Week 5: v. OAK (#31) 35 points
Week 7: v. JAX (#7) 24 points
Week 8: @ KC (#29) 35 points
Week 9: v. MIN (#26) 31 points
Week 10: v. HOU (#15) 45 points
Week 11: @ CHI (#13) 41 points
Week 12: @ DET (#18) 41 points
Week 13: TEN (#30) 51 points
Week 14: @ HOU (#15) 23 points
Week 15: BAL (#6) 20 points
Week 16: SD (#11) 34 points
Week 17: Tank job to DEN (#10) 14 points if any cares.

Is NE the same defense from week 1? No. Our DBs are depleted, but the DL is better with Wilfork and Warren emerging. But our defense held the #2 scoring offense to 19 points, without Law or Poole.

Anyway, in 4 games against top defenses, the Colts averaged 22.75 ppg.

On the flip side, the Patriots offense was good enough to score around 24 on pretty much anybody - only the #4 ranked Jets D held the Pats below 20. The Patriots #4 scoring offense faced the #4 Jets twice, the #8 Bills twice, the #1 Steelers, and the #6 Ravens. Against those 6 teams, they averaged a little OVER 23 points. The Colts have the #19 defense in the NFL.

Now, the Patriots have faced top 10 offenses 5 times this season, and allowed an average of 18.8 points per game. 3 of those games came without Law and Poole, and in those games they allowed an average of 17.6 points per game. The Colts have the #1 offense in the NFL.

The Colts have faced top 10 offenses 5 times this season (6 if you count the Broncos tank-job, which I won't), and allowed an average of 32.5 points per game. The Patriots have the #4 offense in the NFL.

BB found a way for the 2001 Patriots to best the 2001 Rams, on a neutral field, in dome. I think he can find a way for the 2004 Patriots to beat the 2004 Colts, at home, on slow and knotty grass in the cold.

Have a little faith, kids!
 
Great post Flagg....

I've been trying to explain to people that this Colts team isn't quite the offensive powerhouse the media would have us thinking...

Are they an offensive "powerhouse"? Yes.

But as their schedule shows, they faced the...

AFC S (Jax's & Hou's D - inconsistent, Tenn's D - Almost non-existant this year).

The NFC N (GB - no run defense and Harris as their "star" DB, Minn - I think we all know about the Vike's D, Detroit - getting better but still not consistently good, and the Bears - a good D, but one that spends too much time on the field due to a non-existant offense).

And the AFC W (KC - defense is a joke, Oak - even a bigger joke, Den - even Bailey and Lynch couldn't save this D, SD - not a great D, but one that doesn't spend a lot of time on the field due to their offense eating up the clock).

And besides the Pats, they also faced the Ravens, who obviously have a good D, but with an inconsistent offense, it's a D that spends too much time on the field.


The Colts have faced some pretty weak defenses this year, but not only that, most of these teams don't have great offenses. So the opposing teams' offense is on and off the field in 3-5 plays, which puts Indy's offense right back on the field.

The Pats have one of the best offenses that the Colts have faced this year, save for KC & SD. And how is the Colts record facing these teams??? Pats - Lost, KC - Lost , SD - Won in OT.

Point is, that when Indy faces a team which keeps Manning & Co on the bench, they aren't quite the "powerhouse" anymore and are quite beatable.

The Pats defense, even with the problems in the secondary, is still one of the best the Colts will face this year, as is the Pats offense.

With that kind of balance the Colts are going to have a heck of a time trying to beat the Pats.
 
Flagg Wanderer said:
What do we know about this Patriots team? (...)Have a little faith, kids!
Click to expand...

Wow Flagg that was some breakdown. I espically liked the part about Indy not being able to put up more than 24 points Vs a top 5 defense.

So based on your avarages, I would conclude the Final score to be 23 Pats- Colts 18. Thats not including intangibles like Field Vs. Turf, cold Vs, warm.

Listening to 'EEI's Patriots Monday interview of Belichick, He was asked the differeance between the 2004Colts and the 2001 Rams. He Basicly said the Rams were tougher to defend 'cuz they had a habit of spreading the field with motion from the WR's more than Indy does. Indy uses the tight ends more often and when you match the Tight ends with the Linebackers the patriots have the edge. I couldn't beleive I was hearing it from him, but he sounds like he knows what he is talking about.
 
What can I say...It's just the media buying into the hype. Rams may not have the same offense..But they damn sure had a much better defense. If we can beat the Rams IN a Dome, we can damn sure beat these Colts in our house..
 
NationalDefense said:
wow :eek: someone did their homework. Impressive thread!
Click to expand...

When it comes to articulating about the game of football... in print, on amateur boards such as these, you will find none better than some of the members here. Flagg and Hawg are some of the best. freak is also a good football mind and can tell you a thing or two about 40 yard dash times as they apply to the real game of football. Also, be on the lookout for ItsGood_ItsGood's posts who starred in an HBO special on the Red Sox and is well published. :D
 
Good post Flagg.
:thumb:

The only place I'd disagree is with the O-Line. I'd take the entire 2001 line over this one (I don't think Light is yet back to where he was).
________
Mazda 323F
 
While I don't disagree that this Patsy team is better than previous teams, the same can be said for other teams as well...Colts, Stoolies, Eagles, etc. (not the Donkeys however). The Colts D takes a lot of flack as well they should when they perform poorly. However, it is a very young squad. They have made great strides throughout the season and being young are learning quickly and with enthusiasm the in/outs of top level play. Not to say they have "arrived", but just as you have assessed correctly that this Patsy team has and is evolving, so are the Colts. That is a key characteristic of a winning organization.

One key factor that you have failed to include is:

Coach: 2001 Belichick -vs- Belichick today

I have great admiration and respect for this coach. His ability to capitalize on the weaknesses of opponents is most effective. This is what concerns me most. Whether the Colts staff will be able to quickly counter the game plan he will certainly spring upon us. Just as the Belichick of today is better and craftier than the 2001 Belichick, so too is the Dungy of today and his staff better than years past. We have been fortunate to have a high level of stability and low turnover in the staff and personnel that facilitates this. I am confident that Dungy and crew along with a more mature and evolved Colts squad will be up to the task.

I believe this game will go down as one of NFL's finest and am looking forward to it. :thumb:
 
JohnAdams said:
While I don't disagree that this Patsy team is better than previous teams, the same can be said for other teams as well...Colts, Stoolies, Eagles, etc. (not the Donkeys however). The Colts D takes a lot of flack as well they should when they perform poorly. However, it is a very young squad. They have made great strides throughout the season and being young are learning quickly and with enthusiasm the in/outs of top level play. Not to say they have "arrived", but just as you have assessed correctly that this Patsy team has and is evolving, so are the Colts. That is a key characteristic of a winning organization.

One key factor that you have failed to include is:

Coach: 2001 Belichick -vs- Belichick today

I have great admiration and respect for this coach. His ability to capitalize on the weaknesses of opponents is most effective. This is what concerns me most. Whether the Colts staff will be able to quickly counter the game plan he will certainly spring upon us. Just as the Belichick of today is better and craftier than the 2001 Belichick, so too is the Dungy of today and his staff better than years past. We have been fortunate to have a high level of stability and low turnover in the staff and personnel that facilitates this. I am confident that Dungy and crew along with a more mature and evolved Colts squad will be up to the task.

I believe this game will go down as one of NFL's finest and am looking forward to it. :thumb:
Click to expand...

Indy will struggle to stop Dillon and NE will struggle to stop Manning. The difference is Dillon can use the clock and shorten the game the way Belichick's Giant defense shutdown the vaunted Bills offense in 1991. This game will be close, but being in Foxboro may prove to be the difference.
 
Stats?

Are these the same Patsies that claim that statistics don't mean anything?

Hmmmm.

I think people are worried in Patsy land.


GO COLTS.
 
Re: Re: Stats?

dchester said:
Maybe you have a point. I'm little worried about whether I should go to the gas station before I drive home tonight, or if I can make it home and buy it at the cheaper price.

BTW, do check out our poll:
http://www.patriotsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?s=&threadid=8741
Click to expand...

Go for it. I'm sure if you don't make it, someone in friendly New England will stop and help you.

I did check out your poll by the way. Just confirms how worried Patriots Nation is.

How does it feel to be five days away from the end of your season. No Bruins, No Patsies, the Celtics suck. Hmmmm. Spring Training is right around the cornah !
 
The Colts still have No defense. At least, not one that can stop anyone halfway decent.

Besides, win or lose, it is better to have won twice (or about 20 times if we're talking all pro sports) than to have never won anything at all.

1 thing you have that we don't: 2 MVP awards and a real funny "Priceless" commercial.
 
MVPnis said:
The Colts still have No defense. At least, not one that can stop anyone halfway decent.

Besides, win or lose, it is better to have won twice (or about 20 times if we're talking all pro sports) than to have never won anything at all.

1 thing you have that we don't: 2 MVP awards and a real funny "Priceless" commercial.
Click to expand...

Thanks for biting.

You obviously believe what the media feeds you as far as the Colts defense. But since the K.C. game on Halloween, they are giving up only about 19 a game. I'd call that decent.

You run is over Patsy. 5 days until the end of the dynasty. How does it feel?

I did see the Tom Brady Gay and Lesbian Tolerance commercial and thought it was very well done. How brave of him to come out.
 
Re: Re: Re: Stats?

MVP said:
Go for it. I'm sure if you don't make it, someone in friendly New England will stop and help you.
Click to expand...
Not that I don't trust your judgement, but I think I'll make the stop ahead of time.

I did check out your poll by the way. Just confirms how worried Patriots Nation is.
Click to expand...
So don't hold out on us. Which one did you pick? Was it "The referees cheated too"?

How does it feel to be five days away from the end of your season. No Bruins, No Patsies, the Celtics suck. Hmmmm. Spring Training is right around the cornah !
Click to expand...
Hey, the Bruins haven't lost a game this season.
:D
________
oxygen vaporizer
 
MVP said:
I did see the Tom Brady Gay and Lesbian Tolerance commercial and thought it was very well done. How brave of him to come out.
Click to expand...

And just what commercial would you be referring to? This paragraph must mean something.

Brady is one hell of a dresser.

The only problem he has is how to coordinate his outfit with the two gigantic diamond rings that he owns.

What does Manning do in that situation?

Oh, sorry................
 
MVP said:
You obviously believe what the media feeds you as far as the Colts defense. But since the K.C. game on Halloween, they are giving up only about 19 a game. I'd call that decent.
Click to expand...
And I'd call it sh!tty offenses:

28 to the 6th ranked Vikings
14 to the 21st ranked Texans
10 to the 32nd ranked Bears
9 to the 24th ranked Lions
24 to the 15th ranked Titans
14 to the 21st ranked Texans
10 to the 20th ranked Ravens
31 to the 3rd ranked Chargers
and one tank job I won't hold against you.

So that's 8 games (half a season) that you're basing this on. Of those 8, only 3 were against teams that were ABOVE AVERAGE. 5 games were against teams with scoring offenses ranked #20 or worse. Only 2 teams in the top 10. Only 1 in the top 5.

And check it out:
During your phenomenal run on defense, when you played teams that were ABOVE AVERAGE, you surrendered 28, 24, and 31 points: an average of about 28 points per game.

The Patriots are the #4 scoring offense in the NFL. So I wouldn't plan on that 19 points if I were you. Which is right in line with my prediction:
3 TDs, 3 FGs for the Pats (30) to 2 TDs, 4 FGs for the Colts (26).
 
Flagg Wanderer said:
And I'd call it sh!tty offenses:

28 to the 6th ranked Vikings
14 to the 21st ranked Texans
10 to the 32nd ranked Bears
9 to the 24th ranked Lions
24 to the 15th ranked Titans
14 to the 21st ranked Texans
10 to the 20th ranked Ravens
31 to the 3rd ranked Chargers
and one tank job I won't hold against you.

So that's 8 games (half a season) that you're basing this on. Of those 8, only 3 were against teams that were ABOVE AVERAGE. 5 games were against teams with scoring offenses ranked #20 or worse. Only 2 teams in the top 10. Only 1 in the top 5.

And check it out:
During your phenomenal run on defense, when you played teams that were ABOVE AVERAGE, you surrendered 28, 24, and 31 points: an average of about 28 points per game.

The Patriots are the #4 scoring offense in the NFL. So I wouldn't plan on that 19 points if I were you. Which is right in line with my prediction:
3 TDs, 3 FGs for the Pats (30) to 2 TDs, 4 FGs for the Colts (26).
Click to expand...

Stats, Schmats

I think I remember reading on multiple instances on this board quotes/statements by the Patsy nation that stats don't mean anything. In fact the only stat that matters is the numbers of wins and rings.....and now this. MAKE UP YOUR MIND MAN!!! Your losing credibility when ya flipflop like this. I guess it must be the air up there in the Northeast that causes this incessant flipflopping (that Kerry dude had the same problem). Hey, the Colts D squad is very young and improving on a regular and consistent basis. Don't know how you Patsies can tout how your team is evolving to become better, but discount the fact that others are evolving as well. I think the Colts D squad has been doing a pretty good job considering their youth an inexperience. I temper this with the fact that I've wanted to kick the TV on numerous occasions when they've missed tackles with that damn pinball tackling technique. Grabem and tie'em up with your arms!!!
 
JohnAdams said:
Stats, Schmats

I think I remember reading on multiple instances on this board quotes/statements by the Patsy nation that stats don't mean anything. In fact the only stat that matters is the numbers of wins and rings.....and now this. MAKE UP YOUR MIND MAN!!! Your losing credibility when ya flipflop like this. I guess it must be the air up there in the Northeast that causes this incessant flipflopping (that Kerry dude had the same problem). Hey, the Colts D squad is very young and improving on a regular and consistent basis. Don't know why you Patsies tout how your team is evolving to become better, but discount the fact that others are evolving as well. I think the Colts D squad has been doing a pretty good job considering their youth an inexperience. I temper this with the fact that I've wanted to kick the TV on numerous occasions when they've missed tackles with that damn pinball tackling technique. Grabem and tie'em up with your arms!!!
Click to expand...
I'm sorry, I missed the memo that all Pats fans on the board agreed about everything, and how to talk about it.

I like statistics, in their proper context. What's that saying? Statistics are great when you use them like a for illumination, like a lightbulb, rather than for support, like a drunk uses a wall.

MVP tossed out a nonsense stat, and I put it into context.

BTW - I'm not discounting the fact that the Colts defense has improved, just that it hasn't fared well against more powerful offenses.
 
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