Rebuilding The Patriots For 2021 And Beyond

Jeff Howe gives his thoughts - the Athletic

My comments:
I'll add Fla. QB Kyle Trask to his list of QBs to draft. 6'5", 240. Drop back pocket presence++ with decent mobility. 2020 stats - 70% completion rate, 4125 yds, 11.6 AY/A, 43 TDs and only 5 ints. BB could trade back to around 20-25 and still get Trask while adding a late 2nd or early 3rd to boot.

Kyle Trask College Stats, School, Draft, Gamelog, Splits | College Football at Sports-Reference.com

Check out Kyle Trask's College Stats, School, Draft, Gamelog, Splits and More College Stats at Sports-Reference.com

www.sports-reference.com

WRs - Marvin Jones &/or Corey Davis would be perfect, thank you.
TE - Hunter Henry for sure. He'd help immensely.
Adding a TE & 2 WRs would do wonders for the offense.
LB - Lavonte David has been productive his entire career plus he can cover a back or a TE.
Of our own FAs, I'm not certain JMac will be back, at least not as a CB; maybe at S. I'd like to keep Byrd and James White.

10 New England Patriots predictions for 2021

They will acquire a new QB. Mike Onwenu will settle in for a big role. And N'Keal Harry ... will improve — because he has to, right?

theathletic.com

By Jeff Howe Dec 28, 2020

44

The best thing about 2020? There’s at least a sliver of hope it’ll turn to 2021.
That’s where the Patriots have set their focus, as the regular season will expire in a week and they can turn their attention toward the next phase of their rebuild.
So let’s do the same and make 10 bold predictions for the upcoming year. Due to the likelihood that many of these predictions won’t be worth the paper they’re printed on, this message will soon self-destruct. No receipts, please.

1. The Patriots will trade up to draft a quarterback and keep* Cam Newton​

Bill Belichick has publicly acknowledged the advantages of building a roster around a quarterback on a rookie contract, and there are four franchise-caliber talents who are projected top-10 picks.
Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence will likely be the No. 1 pick — too rich for the Patriots — and BYU’s Zach Wilson, Ohio State’s Justin Fields and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance will be gone shortly thereafter. It’ll most likely cost the Patriots at least a pair of first-round picks to get into range to select one of them.
That’s a price worth paying if there’s conviction behind their evaluation of the right quarterback, and the pace of their rebuild depends on it.
There’d be some value in keeping Newton on a short-money contract, especially if the Patriots boost the talent at tight end and wide receiver. If the Patriots trade up to draft a quarterback, they’re not going to want to also spend a significant chunk of cap space on a veteran, so keeping Newton would make some sense.
He’s good for the locker room and should be a solid mentor for a rookie. If the draft pick isn’t ready to start early in the season, Newton would be a serviceable placeholder.
(*I changed my mind three times while writing this section, could do so 10 more times depending how Jarrett Stidham is involved in the final two games and might do so hundreds more times prior to free agency.)

2. The Patriots will extend Stephon Gilmore’s contract and place a second-round tender on J.C. Jackson​

Gilmore is still playing at an extremely high level, but he’ll only earn $7.5 million in cash next season because the Patriots have accelerated future earnings to keep him competitively compensated over the past two seasons.
While Gilmore’s name has come up in trade conversations, the Patriots didn’t come close to dealing him because there was never an acceptable offer on the table, according to a source. The presumption is the Patriots wouldn’t move him for less than a first-round pick. Would their price actually come down in the next three months, and how much will the torn quad impact his fate?
Keeping Gilmore would therefore make the most sense. A two-year, $28.5 million extension would be fair value, rolling that into the balance of his current contract for a three-year, $36 million pact.
Jackson is a restricted free agent, and the Patriots would like to accumulate more picks, particularly under the premise that they’re willing to trade into the top 10 for a quarterback. The Patriots’ two options with Jackson would be to give him a first- or second-round tender, but it’s historically rare for an opposing team to sign away a restricted free agent at the cost of a first-round pick.
Therefore, use a second-round tender, and entice a team to sign Jackson to an offer sheet. That’s an affordable price for a corner with a budding reputation around the league, and the Patriots could use the second-round asset while replacing Jackson with Joejuan Williams or Myles Bryant. They could also re-sign Jason McCourty.

3. The Patriots’ two biggest splashes in free agency will be Hunter Henry and Lavonte David​

Henry will be the top tight end on the market, so he’ll require a contract worth an average annual value of at least $10 million. But Henry also probably got the memo this month that Belichick is infatuated with him.
The Patriots desperately need more production at tight end. Rookies Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene could still grow into solid pieces, but how long will it take? The Patriots can’t go a third consecutive year devoid of statistical output from the position, and Henry would be the answer.
David, a linebacker who turns 31 in January, has flown under the radar in Tampa but has been reliable and productive on all three downs throughout his career. If the Patriots can get him for $8-9 million annually, they can stick him in the middle of their defense with Dont’a Hightower and let Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings flourish alongside them.
The front seven would enjoy an immediate upgrade with David on the inside.

4. Josh Uche will become the Patriots’ top pass rusher​

This is an easy one.
Uche has made an impact with his increased role over the past month, and his trajectory should have a sharp ascension with a normal offseason. Chase Winovich has had a very good season as the Patriots’ best pass rusher, but Uche’s raw talent will shine once the Patriots remove his training wheels.

5. The Patriots will focus on the second tier of free-agent wide receivers​

It would be a surprise if the Patriots completely abandoned their philosophy on paying receivers just because they’ve got $60 million in projected cap space, the fourth-most in the NFL.
That’s why $14-18 million annually doesn’t add up for JuJu Smith-Schuster, Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay or Will Fuller. Rather, it’d make more sense to try to snare a pair of the next tier that includes Curtis Samuel, Marvin Jones, Sammy Watkins and Corey Davis.
If the Patriots can land two of them, somehow land one of the plethora of talented wideouts in the draft and combine them with Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers, the group would look much better.

6. The Patriots will re-sign Joe Thuney​

The Pats used the $14.8 million franchise tag on Thuney despite being tight against the cap because they hoped to extend him to a long-term contract. The two sides were never close to an extension before the deadline, nor were the Patriots close to trading him due to an absence of acceptable offers. They also weren’t going to just flip him to the highest bidder due to his value to the team, which played out tenfold as he hopped between left guard and center early in the season.
It’d be surprising if they didn’t continue to offer him a competitive contract. There are only 10 teams with at least $30 million in projected cap room, and it’s tough to envision most of them using a major chunk of it on an interior lineman. Maybe Washington or the Bengals makes a huge push, but Thuney would then have to decide between the fattest payday and an environment he knows best and is closer to achieving postseason success.
It’s unconventional for teams to devote so much cap space to guard, as Shaq Mason will carry a $9.775 million cap hit, but the Patriots can pull it off while their tackles are on rookie contracts.

1/2​

 

Yeah that D line needs an anchor. I think a lot of what BB defenses try to do are built on that.

 

Tedarrell Slaton, DT, Florida
Height: 6-5. Weight: 343.
Projected 40 Time: 5.6.
Projected Round (2021): 2-3.
View Ranking History
12/19/20: Slaton has played well in 2020, stuffing runs at the point of attack and getting a push in pass protection. He is a good fit for 3-4 nose tackle in the NFL.

9/5/20: Slaton recorded 29 tackles with two sacks and a pass defended in 2019. He played well to close out the regular season, but he was wise to go back for his senior year. Slaton did not produce a big stat line for the Gators in 2018, but the big nose tackle caused a lot of disruption and plugged a lot of gaps at the point of attack. He totaled 21 tackles with two for a loss on the year.

Team sources have remarked how Slaton jumped out at them and was impossible to ignore while grading the Gators' 2019 NFL Draft prospects. For the NFL, Slaton projects as a heavy nose tackle.

 

Often, when a team goes 6-10 or 7-9, the head coach and other coaches get fired. I don't think it's going to happen here; Belichick has built up a lot of capital (6 rings and all). Another bad year, and he's probably gone, though.

 

Tedarrell Slaton, DT, Florida
Height: 6-5. Weight: 343.
Projected 40 Time: 5.6.
Projected Round (2021): 2-3.
View Ranking History
12/19/20: Slaton has played well in 2020, stuffing runs at the point of attack and getting a push in pass protection. He is a good fit for 3-4 nose tackle in the NFL.

9/5/20: Slaton recorded 29 tackles with two sacks and a pass defended in 2019. He played well to close out the regular season, but he was wise to go back for his senior year. Slaton did not produce a big stat line for the Gators in 2018, but the big nose tackle caused a lot of disruption and plugged a lot of gaps at the point of attack. He totaled 21 tackles with two for a loss on the year.

Team sources have remarked how Slaton jumped out at them and was impossible to ignore while grading the Gators' 2019 NFL Draft prospects. For the NFL, Slaton projects as a heavy nose tackle.

Reads like big Vince. Just what we need!

 

Often, when a team goes 6-10 or 7-9, the head coach and other coaches get fired. I don't think it's going to happen here; Belichick has built up a lot of capital (6 rings and all). Another bad year, and he's probably gone, though.

Only if he chooses to leave.

 

Only if he chooses to leave.

He's been good coach, and I suppose he'll handle this adversity pretty well. I hope he brings the team back to some prominence in a couple of years. Every team in the past has lost a good or great coach. But Belichick probably wants to see if he can rebuild the team. Robert Kraft will probably give him a chance, and after a while, if it doesn't work out, it'll be bye bye Bill, and hello someone else. But next season, it'll probably be Belichick.

 

View: https://twitter.com/BenjaminSolak/status/1344047418141192193

 

Byrd is JAG...

 

The problem with the Pats is the serious lack of a #1 receiver. Other than a healthy Jules there was no number one receiver on the roster. I don't know what will happen with him, but I hope he gets to play out his last year and remain productive. The Pats are in dire need of a #1 receiver. Someone like a Corey Davis or Samuel plus ideally Hunter Henry.

Add those two weapons and all of a sudden Byrd and Meyers become good supporting WRs when the #1 CB is occupied even without Jules. Then the run game is already solid. If Cam is retained, with upgraded weapons then there's no excuse whatsoever. Same would go for Sitdham if he were to take over.

Defensively is basically an overhaul that would need many holes to fix, most notably DT and ILBs. I think Pats are set in the secondary, but knowing BB he will probably still draft a DB.

 

Of course, Steve .I didn't mean exactly 7 points per game, although had that number somehow been granted us in each game this season it would have given us 3 additional wins and a tie, so, potentially, we could be sitting at 10-5 and likely heading into the playoffs all other things being equal.

All I wanted to get across is that even if it's bad for this team right now it isn't quite as bad as a lot of the talking heads are saying, in my opinion. The vultures are thrilled to be picking our bones clean.

It's still a long row to hoe, but I've seen lots worse teams than this one turn it around and I choose to believe that the 2021 season is going to be a lot more fun to be a Patriots fan than this shitshow has been.

 

View: https://twitter.com/BB_HulkSmash/status/1344088290891325440

 

He's been good coach, and I suppose he'll handle this adversity pretty well. I hope he brings the team back to some prominence in a couple of years. Every team in the past has lost a good or great coach. But Belichick probably wants to see if he can rebuild the team. Robert Kraft will probably give him a chance, and after a while, if it doesn't work out, it'll be bye bye Bill, and hello someone else. But next season, it'll probably be Belichick.

This is not accurate, at any level.
1) It's not accurate that coaches who go 6-10 or worse get canned. Marvin Lewis went 6-10 or worse 3 times before finally getting the boot on his 4th. The year after he left the Bengals went to 2-14. He had won 0 Superbowls. The same is true by the way of Jim Schwartz and countless other coaches, who again pointedly never won a Superbowl.
2) It's not accurate that Superbowl winning coaches are, generally, in danger of getting fired. Note the following:

Has a Super Bowl-winning coach ever been fired this fast?

We’re all wondering about Doug Pederson’s fate as the Eagles’ season sputters to an end. Has a head coach actually gotten fired within three years of winning a Super Bowl? By Reuben Frank

www.nbcsports.com

Note there are only 33 Superbowl winning coaches, of which only 10 were ever fired from the team on which they won the Superbowl, and only 1 of those was fired within 6 years of winning a Superbowl. Which, since Belichick won the Superbowl year before last, means he has at minimum another 4 years of safety.
3) To that point, it's not true that there is ANY chance of the Krafts moving on from Belichick, at any point in the future. The only coaches to have won two Superbowls and eventually be fired from the team on which they won those Superbowls were Tom Landry and Mike Shanahan. Both won 2 Superbowls, and were fired 10 years after their win. Extrapolate, then: If the average is each Superbowl win is worth a 5 year safety net, then Belichick has another... 30 years. There has never been another coach to win 6 Superbowls of course, so naturally we're dealing with a sample size of 1, and furthermore the Krafts know exactly what Belichick and Brady accomplished for them. Belichick could coach for decades, never winning a playoff game, and he would still only move on when he was good and ready.

I mean come on, seriously. He's been a good coach? Winning a Superbowl at a pace of roughly once every 3 years, for two decades, in the salary cap and free agent era? Winning not even two full calendar years ago? Honestly, stuff like this makes me think folks have zero appreciation for what has been accomplished. The Lions moved on from Caldwell, because a 7-9 to 9-7 record wasn't good enough for them. Look how that turned out for them. We've seen the Patriots without Brady. Move on from Belichick to whomever can be picked up off the street, and this season will look like sunshine and lollipops, and the truth will be revealed - there is always further to fall.

 

Albert Breer who I like a lot just wrote a lengthy piece about the current state of the Patriots with an in-depth analysis of their roster. Lots of interesting nuggets in here. I bolded things that I thought stood out. Well worth the read and discussion to see what we agree/disagree with. Most interesting was one exec basically saying draft like crazy this year and get young and do the full reset and be ready to compete in 2022. I don't know about that but interesting none the less.

I had to put it in two posts because of the character limit.

How the Wheels Came Off the Patriots' Dynasty​

The Patriots are left playing meaningless games with a bad roster. Here's how things went downhill so quickly. Plus, what it'll take for Dwayne Haskins to get his career back on track, the impact coaching hires will have on the QB market, power rankings and more.

It was fourth-and-one, and into the final minute of the first quarter of Buffalo’s could’ve-been-worse 38–9 beatdown of the Patriots, and a chaotic situation was unfolding.

As Josh Allen got his teammates to the line, Bill Belichick’s staff was swapping out one group for another. Josh Uche, Terrence Brooks, Jonathan Jones, Myles Bryant and Chase Winovich rushed off the field, and on came John Simon, Byron Cowart, Terez Hall and Akeem Spence.

On one hand, this frantic personnel dance was perfectly Patriots—with Belichick gaming a situation with a certain group of players coming in to combat it. On another, the result was anything but. Defensive tackle Adam Butler jumped offside, Allen gashed New England for 22 yards on a boot, prompting the Bills to decline the resulting penalty and, worst of all, if you count the names above, you’ll see the Patriots only had 10 guys out there for all this.

But there’s something else there, too, a little deeper under the surface. That New England had to switch out so many guys, something they’ve done for chunks of this year, is telling. On Monday, based on snap percentages, they really had four full-time guys: safety Adrian Phillips and corners J.C. Jackson, Jason McCourty and Jones. If you go back a week, to the Miami game, that number was three, with Jackson being the only one overlapping (Hall and Jones were the other two full-timers against the Dolphins).

Bottom line: There was a time when Belichick’s tinkering with his lineup like this was a sign of his brilliance as a football coach, and this very clearly isn’t that. To those who’ve faced the Patriots, this more than anything is a sign of a team lacking top-end talent.

“They’re just devoid of talent,” said an NFC personnel director who’s studied the Patriots. “It’s a bunch of specialty guys that fit certain scenarios, and those guys are fine, but they don’t have line-up-and-kick-your-ass football players. [Stephon] Gilmore’s a real guy. [Joe] Thuney’s a real guy. I like J.C. Jackson. But other than that, I don’t know who we’re really talking about.

“I know this: Vince Wilfork, Ty Warren, Richard Seymour, Mike Vrabel, Willie McGinest, Asante Samuel—they weren’t taking those guys off the field situationally. Those guys lined up and kicked the other guy’s ass.”

Without that? Without that, it’s other guys doing the whooping. And predictably on Monday, for the third straight week, it was the Patriots taking the whooping.

Now, the question becomes how many more shiners New England’s going to have to wear before Belichick can get the team back where he wants it.

But we’re starting with the wheels coming off the greatest dynasty in modern NFL history, and where everything went so wrong.

This Sunday, the Patriots will play the least relevant game in the 19-year history of Gillette Stadium, hosting the 2–13 Jets. New England’s got draft position on the line, and the Jets, locked into the second overall pick, don’t even have that. And the Patriots opened as a 4.5-point favorite, which, if you shave off the obligatory three points given to the home team, means Vegas sees these two groups as damn near even.

On the surface, given history, that seems absurd.

But a look at where the Patriots are from a roster standpoint shows it to be less so.
When the game’s over, the real work in New England will begin—and there is a lot of work, and maybe even some self-reflection, to be done. Because if you look at how the Patriots got here, it’s pretty clear this result has been a long time coming. (We actually looked at the looming issue two years ago, with the Patriots on their way to a sixth Super Bowl title.)

The quarterback. This is an easy one, on the surface. Cam Newton walked into a bad situation that no quarterback would’ve been able to fix (Brady’s passer rating during last year’s 4–5 finish: 80.3), and his play only made it worse, and that’s an obvious starting point for this discussion.

But the truth is the Patriots lost more than a quarterback in Brady. They lost the ultimate fixer. Brady didn’t create margin for error. He was the margin for error. Got a little less at receiver? Tom will get you in the right looks and throw guys open. Got issues on the line? He’ll give you an edge in setting protections and get rid of the ball faster. Got less on defense? He’s cool to play in shootouts. And so on.
“To me, Brady masked their misses over the years,” said an AFC exec. “Just look at their draft history. You see picks missed on, but Brady, [Rob Gronkowski], [Julian] Edelman, they’d mask those issues. … [Belichick’s] still one of the best coaches—he’s such a good coach, and Josh [McDaniels] is such a good coordinator, and they have overcome lack of talent in the past. But now they don’t have the quarterback, and it’s tough to mask everything else.

“I mean, look at the skill positions. They don’t have anybody you’re scared of.”

“Is their roster ever spectacular?” asked an NFC personnel director. “I’m not sure it ever was, but they had an unbelievable coach and an unbelievable quarterback. … What [Brady] did to bring everyone up around him was incredible. The beauty of what they’ve done, they trade back, they get picks, they bring in bodies, and guys that fit them. Then they lose that guy who’s been making it all work, it’s tough.”

The issues in scouting. The Patriots have bled promising young scouts over the last few years in part because those guys wanted to have a real voice in the process—something very few felt like they had in Foxboro. And drafting N’Keal Harry in the first round is a strong example of it.

Harry perfectly illustrates Belichick’s scouting blind spot. Belichick’s close with Harry’s college coach, ex-Arizona State coach Todd Graham, and Harry crushed his in-house visit with the team in the spring of 2019, doing a better job with his turn in Foxboro than Deebo Samuel or A.J. Brown did with theirs. So despite warning signs from the scouts on Harry, the team wound up taking Harry in the first round.

You know the rest. Brown and Samuel look like future Pro Bowlers. Harry has 397 yards over two years and doesn’t seem like a lock to make the team next year. And he’s just one example. Another is 2020 third-rounder Anfernee Jennings, a limited linebacker who Nick Saban called his “favorite player” to some teams. He, predictably, was overdrafted by Belichick. There are more, too.

This one isn’t that tough to diagnose, of course, and comes not just down to what Belichick values in players, but also in where he’s getting his information. Which makes it fair to question if he’s leaned too much on his college coaching friends and his personal experience with prospects, and too little on the work of his scouts.

The core positions. Simply put, the Patriots are bad at positions they’re normally good at. Quarterback’s the most obvious example. But linebacker and tight end are two more.

The best Patriots teams were highly-invested in those spots, and it makes sense that they were—they’re positions that demand the most versatility, which allows a coach like Belichick to be multiple, and they’re undervalued financially against what, say, top-shelf receivers or corners get, allowing for a team to better manage its resources. Foxboro used to overflow with examples of this. Vrabel, McGinest, Tedy Bruschi, Ted Johnson, Jamie Collins, Jerod Mayo, Dont’a Hightower, Kyle Van Noy, Ben Watson, Daniel Graham, Christian Fauria, Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Martellus Bennett were all among them.

[End of Post 1]

 

[Post 2]

Now, they’ve got Ju’Wuan Bentley, Hall, Devin Asiasi, Dalton Keene and a bunch of other guys you’ve never heard of.
“The first thing that jumps out is how different the tight end position is,” said an AFC personnel director. “It’s so obvious, but to go from not just Gronk, but also guys like Marty [Martellus Bennett], and that staple with Brady, he was so associated with tight ends going up the seam and in the red area, to overdrafted Asisasi and way-overdrafted Keene is jarring. … And then it’s guys like Terez Hall at linebacker. There’s a dearth of talent at linebacker and tight end, and Cam’s issue accelerated the problem.
“Those are heartbeat positions for that team, and they’re just bad at those spots.”

The specialty-player problem. One executive I talked to pointed out how Belichick, every year, will draft and build the team to his schedule. One good example of it working was 2014, when New England faced a gauntlet of explosive passing games, and landed Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner to prepare for it. More recently, attempts to do this have been less successful.

One came in 2019. With athletic tight ends like Travis Kelce, Evan Engram, Mark Andrews, David Njoku and Zach Ertz on the slate, the Patriots took supersized Vanderbilt corner Joejuan Williams in the second round, thinking he could fill the kind of role Patrick Chung has for them in recent years to deal with them. The idea, on paper, made sense. But the question is whether doing that costs them someone better. And if they keep making decisions like that, how many better players are they passing on?

“Bill is such a great coach that he’ll always be able to devise plans around your strengths and weaknesses,” said our NFC personnel director. “But you can take that too far, and it seems like too many times he’s settled for lesser players because they can do this one thing really well.”

And that’s where, at times, you’ve seen the Patriots take guys who were good-not-great way too high because they liked a certain thing the player could do—and that even extends to specific skills like long-snapping (hello, Joe Cardona).
“They took Jordan Richards—we had him on our back board, as a free agent, and they took him in the second round,” said our AFC executive. “Without the quarterback, it’s caught up with them.”

Thus, you have players running on and off the field in an ugly Monday-night loss to Buffalo to play a certain situation, and a roster full of guys brought aboard for one or two specific reasons, to make up for a lack of guys who can do everything well.

The Bills—the team that laid that 38–9 whooping on New England, and one that could’ve been 59–9 if Sean McDermott hadn’t called the dogs off—provided an interesting contrast on that field. Four years into the McDermott–Brandon Beane era, the Bills are stocked with long-term answers, boasting a cornerstone in every single position group.

It’s Allen at quarterback, Stefon Diggs at receiver, Dawson Knox at tight end, Devin Singletary and Zack Moss at tailback, Dion Dawkins on the offensive line, Ed Oliver on the defensive line, Tremaine Edmunds at linebacker and Tre’Davious White in the secondary. You can say, with certainty, that most if not all those players will be on the team three years from now.

How many Patriots can you say that about? The harsh truth is there might not be one, and that Bills team, along with an upwardly mobile Dolphins group, is what New England will be chasing in the AFC East next year.

Maybe they’ll get their preseason opt-outs back, but even that might not solve much. Chung turns 34 in August, Hightower turns 31 in March, and it’s hard to project whether they, or other thirtysomethings like McCourty, Matthew Slater and Gilmore (and Gilmore could be gone in 2021 anyway) will have much left by the time the Patriots can turn the downward momentum they’re battling against now, with a 10–14 record over the last season and a half.

And here’s another hard truth—it might not be worth fighting against the short-term pain they’re already feeling.

“They do have a bunch of picks coming, with the comp picks factored in, which gives you the ability to go young,” said our AFC personnel director. “And you have a damn good feeling that Buffalo and Miami are gonna be good again, and that one is going to win the division. So it’ll be a hard division to win, and that means this might be the year to do it, just hit reset, play a lot of young guys, and then in 2022, here we go.”

It’s probably tough for a New England fan base that hasn’t faced a reality like this in a generation to swallow the idea of that. But it would be harder to understand the idea of staying the course they’re currently on.
Because at the root of it, the problem isn’t complicated.

“Yeah,” said our AFC exec, “that’s just not a good roster.”

How the Wheels Came Off the Patriots' Dynasty

The Patriots are left playing meaningless games with a bad roster. Here's how things went downhill so quickly.

www.si.com

 

This is not accurate, at any level.
1) It's not accurate that coaches who go 6-10 or worse get canned. Marvin Lewis went 6-10 or worse 3 times before finally getting the boot on his 4th. The year after he left the Bengals went to 2-14. He had won 0 Superbowls. The same is true by the way of Jim Schwartz and countless other coaches, who again pointedly never won a Superbowl.
2) It's not accurate that Superbowl winning coaches are, generally, in danger of getting fired. Note the following:

Has a Super Bowl-winning coach ever been fired this fast?

We’re all wondering about Doug Pederson’s fate as the Eagles’ season sputters to an end. Has a head coach actually gotten fired within three years of winning a Super Bowl? By Reuben Frank

www.nbcsports.com

Note there are only 33 Superbowl winning coaches, of which only 10 were ever fired from the team on which they won the Superbowl, and only 1 of those was fired within 6 years of winning a Superbowl. Which, since Belichick won the Superbowl year before last, means he has at minimum another 4 years of safety.
3) To that point, it's not true that there is ANY chance of the Krafts moving on from Belichick, at any point in the future. The only coaches to have won two Superbowls and eventually be fired from the team on which they won those Superbowls were Tom Landry and Mike Shanahan. Both won 2 Superbowls, and were fired 10 years after their win. Extrapolate, then: If the average is each Superbowl win is worth a 5 year safety net, then Belichick has another... 30 years. There has never been another coach to win 6 Superbowls of course, so naturally we're dealing with a sample size of 1, and furthermore the Krafts know exactly what Belichick and Brady accomplished for them. Belichick could coach for decades, never winning a playoff game, and he would still only move on when he was good and ready.

I mean come on, seriously. He's been a good coach? Winning a Superbowl at a pace of roughly once every 3 years, for two decades, in the salary cap and free agent era? Winning not even two full calendar years ago? Honestly, stuff like this makes me think folks have zero appreciation for what has been accomplished. The Lions moved on from Caldwell, because a 7-9 to 9-7 record wasn't good enough for them. Look how that turned out for them. We've seen the Patriots without Brady. Move on from Belichick to whomever can be picked up off the street, and this season will look like sunshine and lollipops, and the truth will be revealed - there is always further to fall.

I'm a good fan, and I hope they keep up the fine play (other than this season). They did have a few players opt out, players who are winners. When some come back, it'll help the team. And a better qb/receivers, etc etc. Belichick's the man, so it'll be interesting to see how the team does, going forward. And there's some accuracy in what I said. There have been many 6-10 coaches that have been fired, and also 7-9 coaches. The difference here is that BB has been a great, long-term winner with the Patriots. Which makes a difference. But nobody lasts forever. Kraft, as long as he's around, probably won't stand for a few consecutive poor years. But Belichick has built up alot of capital, so who knows? The Dolphins kept Shula around for a lot of years after his last championship (1973 season). Until when, the early 2000's? So Giant Octopus haha you're probably right.....whatever. Go Patriots!