Rebuilding The Patriots For 2021 And Beyond

Jeff Howe gives his thoughts - the Athletic

My comments:
I'll add Fla. QB Kyle Trask to his list of QBs to draft. 6'5", 240. Drop back pocket presence++ with decent mobility. 2020 stats - 70% completion rate, 4125 yds, 11.6 AY/A, 43 TDs and only 5 ints. BB could trade back to around 20-25 and still get Trask while adding a late 2nd or early 3rd to boot.
WRs - Marvin Jones &/or Corey Davis would be perfect, thank you.
TE - Hunter Henry for sure. He'd help immensely.
Adding a TE & 2 WRs would do wonders for the offense.
LB - Lavonte David has been productive his entire career plus he can cover a back or a TE.
Of our own FAs, I'm not certain JMac will be back, at least not as a CB; maybe at S. I'd like to keep Byrd and James White.




By Jeff Howe Dec 28, 2020
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The best thing about 2020? There’s at least a sliver of hope it’ll turn to 2021.
That’s where the Patriots have set their focus, as the regular season will expire in a week and they can turn their attention toward the next phase of their rebuild.
So let’s do the same and make 10 bold predictions for the upcoming year. Due to the likelihood that many of these predictions won’t be worth the paper they’re printed on, this message will soon self-destruct. No receipts, please.

1. The Patriots will trade up to draft a quarterback and keep* Cam Newton​

Bill Belichick has publicly acknowledged the advantages of building a roster around a quarterback on a rookie contract, and there are four franchise-caliber talents who are projected top-10 picks.
Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence will likely be the No. 1 pick — too rich for the Patriots — and BYU’s Zach Wilson, Ohio State’s Justin Fields and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance will be gone shortly thereafter. It’ll most likely cost the Patriots at least a pair of first-round picks to get into range to select one of them.
That’s a price worth paying if there’s conviction behind their evaluation of the right quarterback, and the pace of their rebuild depends on it.
There’d be some value in keeping Newton on a short-money contract, especially if the Patriots boost the talent at tight end and wide receiver. If the Patriots trade up to draft a quarterback, they’re not going to want to also spend a significant chunk of cap space on a veteran, so keeping Newton would make some sense.
He’s good for the locker room and should be a solid mentor for a rookie. If the draft pick isn’t ready to start early in the season, Newton would be a serviceable placeholder.
(*I changed my mind three times while writing this section, could do so 10 more times depending how Jarrett Stidham is involved in the final two games and might do so hundreds more times prior to free agency.)

2. The Patriots will extend Stephon Gilmore’s contract and place a second-round tender on J.C. Jackson​

Gilmore is still playing at an extremely high level, but he’ll only earn $7.5 million in cash next season because the Patriots have accelerated future earnings to keep him competitively compensated over the past two seasons.
While Gilmore’s name has come up in trade conversations, the Patriots didn’t come close to dealing him because there was never an acceptable offer on the table, according to a source. The presumption is the Patriots wouldn’t move him for less than a first-round pick. Would their price actually come down in the next three months, and how much will the torn quad impact his fate?
Keeping Gilmore would therefore make the most sense. A two-year, $28.5 million extension would be fair value, rolling that into the balance of his current contract for a three-year, $36 million pact.
Jackson is a restricted free agent, and the Patriots would like to accumulate more picks, particularly under the premise that they’re willing to trade into the top 10 for a quarterback. The Patriots’ two options with Jackson would be to give him a first- or second-round tender, but it’s historically rare for an opposing team to sign away a restricted free agent at the cost of a first-round pick.
Therefore, use a second-round tender, and entice a team to sign Jackson to an offer sheet. That’s an affordable price for a corner with a budding reputation around the league, and the Patriots could use the second-round asset while replacing Jackson with Joejuan Williams or Myles Bryant. They could also re-sign Jason McCourty.

3. The Patriots’ two biggest splashes in free agency will be Hunter Henry and Lavonte David​

Henry will be the top tight end on the market, so he’ll require a contract worth an average annual value of at least $10 million. But Henry also probably got the memo this month that Belichick is infatuated with him.
The Patriots desperately need more production at tight end. Rookies Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene could still grow into solid pieces, but how long will it take? The Patriots can’t go a third consecutive year devoid of statistical output from the position, and Henry would be the answer.
David, a linebacker who turns 31 in January, has flown under the radar in Tampa but has been reliable and productive on all three downs throughout his career. If the Patriots can get him for $8-9 million annually, they can stick him in the middle of their defense with Dont’a Hightower and let Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings flourish alongside them.
The front seven would enjoy an immediate upgrade with David on the inside.

4. Josh Uche will become the Patriots’ top pass rusher​

This is an easy one.
Uche has made an impact with his increased role over the past month, and his trajectory should have a sharp ascension with a normal offseason. Chase Winovich has had a very good season as the Patriots’ best pass rusher, but Uche’s raw talent will shine once the Patriots remove his training wheels.

5. The Patriots will focus on the second tier of free-agent wide receivers​

It would be a surprise if the Patriots completely abandoned their philosophy on paying receivers just because they’ve got $60 million in projected cap space, the fourth-most in the NFL.
That’s why $14-18 million annually doesn’t add up for JuJu Smith-Schuster, Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay or Will Fuller. Rather, it’d make more sense to try to snare a pair of the next tier that includes Curtis Samuel, Marvin Jones, Sammy Watkins and Corey Davis.
If the Patriots can land two of them, somehow land one of the plethora of talented wideouts in the draft and combine them with Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers, the group would look much better.

6. The Patriots will re-sign Joe Thuney​

The Pats used the $14.8 million franchise tag on Thuney despite being tight against the cap because they hoped to extend him to a long-term contract. The two sides were never close to an extension before the deadline, nor were the Patriots close to trading him due to an absence of acceptable offers. They also weren’t going to just flip him to the highest bidder due to his value to the team, which played out tenfold as he hopped between left guard and center early in the season.
It’d be surprising if they didn’t continue to offer him a competitive contract. There are only 10 teams with at least $30 million in projected cap room, and it’s tough to envision most of them using a major chunk of it on an interior lineman. Maybe Washington or the Bengals makes a huge push, but Thuney would then have to decide between the fattest payday and an environment he knows best and is closer to achieving postseason success.
It’s unconventional for teams to devote so much cap space to guard, as Shaq Mason will carry a $9.775 million cap hit, but the Patriots can pull it off while their tackles are on rookie contracts.

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I feel like Jameis Winston would be a worse option than Cam considering the complexity of the offense.

I'd be fine with Mariota, but the fact he would only be available via trade makes me think BB wouldn't go for it.
It will be interesting to see what happens. I was very impressed with Mariota when he played for the Raiders v the Bolts in week 15. He looked very lively. I would like to think Bill and Josh are having a serious look at him.
 
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PFF compares the 2019 & 2020 Patriots
The difference isn't as great as some might believe.
Which is what I've been saying all along...and PFF doesn't even get into turnover differential which heavily favored the 2019 team.

New England obviously fared poorly in Year 1 without Brady, finishing 7-9 and missing the playoffs for the first time since 2008. Still, relying on one season versus an entire 20-year run of the greatest head coach-quarterback duo is oversimplifying the situation. Brady's season couldn't have gone much better or Belichick's arguably much worse, but 2020 was one of the more unpredictable seasons for every franchise.

Belichick's body of work suggests that he might not have fallen as far behind in this debate as some might think.

2020 SEASON IN REVIEW

Football fans will be quick to point out what went wrong for the Patriots in 2020: The downgrade at quarterback from Brady to Cam Newton was the main reason why the offense/team failed in 2020. There are elements to that statement that are true, as the Newton-led Patriots ranked 25th in offensive points per game (13.3).
But the narrative is slightly misleading because the offense was almost identical, if not better, from an efficiency standpoint when compared to the 2019 Brady-led Patriots.

A closer look at the two offenses reveals that the 2020 Patriots with Newton at the helm (he missed two games due to COVID-19) ranked better than the 2019 version in several offensive categories. Those included offensive efficiency marks like +EPA% (percentage of plays that generate positive expected points added), average yards per play and overall success rate.

EPA per play+EPA%Yards per playSuccess rate %Scoring drive %Touchdown drive%
2019 Patriots-0.045 (20th)42.5% (22nd)5.2 (23rd)33.1% (24th)36% (15th)21.5% (18th)
2020 Patriots0.001 (20th)46% (15th)5.4 (20th)37.2% (16th)38.4% (20th)21.2% (24th)
 
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Both offenses were below league average across the board. The only difference between the two in terms of output was raw touchdowns and yards. The 2019 Patriots ranked fourth in plays per game (68.0), which helped their overall production in touchdowns per game (2.53, 12th), and points per game (15.2, 15th).

Those both topped the much more sluggish 2020 Patriots offense, which ranked 30th in plays per game (60.3) and managed to finish 25th in touchdowns per game (2.21).

The run-heavy nature of Newton’s Patriots explains the downtick in plays per game. More time per play means fewer plays overall. But the takeaway here is that we didn’t see an insane drop-off from 2019 to 2020. We saw average to below-average offenses in both seasons with the main exception being the price tag of the quarterback.

Instead of tying up over $25 million per year in money to a 43-year-old QB coming off one of his worst statistical seasons, Belichick rolled the dice by signing Newton to a one-year deal for $1.5 million. And he ended up getting the same offensive output out of the same lackluster supporting cast of offensive players as Brady did the year before. The main difference was that Newton cost 1/16th what Brady would have.

We all know how great Brady was in Tampa Bay this season, but I doubt he would have duplicated the success in New England. He had outgrown the system there, and with New England too cap-stricken to acquire additional offensive firepower, it made sense for the two parties to go their separate ways.

SALARY CAP AND OPT OUTS

The fact is that the Patriots sold out against the salary cap the last few seasons to continue to pursue championships. Belichick said so himself multiple times throughout the season. A lot of that had to do with the amount of dead money to players like Brady and Antonio Brown, who were owed money despite not even being on the roster.
Per Spotrac, New England committed to spend at least 97% of their salary cap space every year since 2017 and at least 93% in every season since 2013. That percentage fell to 87.4% in 2020, which is one reason why the Patriots currently have the fourth-most available cap space to utilize in free agency.

The lower amount of spending also forced the Patriots to field a team with its youngest roster since the 2016 season. It shouldn’t be such a surprise that a team that had relied heavily on veterans struggled without them.

It's also important to remember that no team had more players opt-out before the start of the 2020 NFL season than the Patriots' eight. This included notable contributors like LB Dont'a Hightower (71.3 PFF grade in 2019) and OL Marcus Cannon. New England went from having PFF’s sixth-highest-graded linebacker unit (73.1) to the 20th in 2020 (51.6).

In terms of wins and losses, these players don’t move the needle too much, but the timing of their decision to opt-out (July 28th) created a disadvantage for the Patriots’ salary cap and roster-building process.

The players who opted out cleared roughly $17 million in 2020 cap space. That pushed them from the ranking 25th in available cap space to the top-10. But New England was unable to take advantage of the extra money to address team needs because this all happened in July.

The latest reports suggest that the players who opted out will be returning to the Patriots in 2021.

2021 LOOK AHEAD

New England heads into the 2021 offseason with a boatload of cap space to utilize in free agency. They also own the 15th-overall pick (fourth-highest selection in the Belichick era), which should ensure that the 2021 Patriots offense is a vastly improved unit.

They have the capital to make some splashy moves this offseason, and it wouldn't be surprising see them make an aggressive move at the quarterback position. It seems like almost half of the NFL quarterbacks have been discussed as tradable assets. A new linchpin under center for New England could easily get them back into contention.

One of Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, Sam Darnold, Jimmy Garoppolo, Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Marcus Mariota or an incoming QB prospect could be donning the blue and white before 2021 kicks off.

FINAL THOUGHTS

One of the things being lost in the Brady versus Belichick debate is the fact that Belichick is a defensive-minded head coach. That’s not to say Belichick doesn’t have input on how his offense operates, but his claim to fame has always been defense, going back to his days as the defensive coordinator with the New York Giants, where he won two more Super Bowls. The defense was a huge factor in the Patriots’ initial Super Bowl run from 2001-2004.

Belichick’s mastery of assembling defenses has not faltered; the Patriots’ last three Super Bowl victories all came in seasons when the defense earned a top-three PFF grade: 2014 (82.7, third), 2016 (89.2, first) and 2018 (90.1, second).

The 2020 Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers were PFF’s fifth-highest-graded defense. Needless to say, combining Brady with a top-five defense led to Super Bowl victories. And there wasn’t a better maestro of that combination than Belichick.

It's worth noting that the covid-ravaged 2020 NFL season also took away a lot of offseason work and in-season practice time. Obviously these issues were felt across the league, but lack of practices or coaching opportunities is going to be felt heaviest by the best coaches and youngest rosters. Belichick specifically cited lack of practice as a major factor in the team’s embarrassing early-season home loss the Denver Broncos. Denver didn’t score a touchdown and still won the game with six Brandon McManus field goals.

Belichick's decisions have often been proven right in time, like the release of Lawyer Milloy in 2003 or choosing to let Malcolm Butler walk in free agency in favor of Stephon Gilmore in 2017. Back in 2016, he was able to win a Thursday night game with rookie quarterback Jacoby Brisset.

In 2020, Brady did what he had to do in order to step out of Belichick's shadow — and he did it in emphatic fashion. But it's still not enough to suggest that Brady made Belichick over the previous 20 seasons. Both were an integral part of the Patriots’ success over two decades.

The good news is that the debate will continue with Brady returning to Tampa for at least one more season, and we'll get to see the future Hall of Famers go head-to-head in 2021 when Brady’s Bucs offense visits Belichick’s Patriots defense in Foxboro. That matchup won't decide this debate once and for all, either, but it will be real fun to watch.

 
some good options there chevss, thanks.williams? Patrick? good point about the coaching change ups.

Patrick would be good...Williams was good on the Bolts.

Glad you're reading these. Brad's been a go-to discussion buddy for a while.
It's always good to look for value beyond the most obvious front line answers to personnel acquisition.

Interesting to me that the local media didn't make more of the coaching issues over the last 2 years. Losing some well established, important coaches really hurt this team the last few years. Losing Flores was the kill stroke. He grew up with this team and knew the players probably better than BB himself. The void left behind when Flores and Judge left was huge and still hasn't been filled completely.

What made it worse was the addition of replacement coaches who had a negative affect on play. Specifically, Jedd Fisch - he couldn't have been worse for these Pats QBs in this offense.
I literally jumped for joy when I heard he was leaving (fired). Can you imagine trying to force Cam Newton into a drop back pocket passer? We saw it and it wasn't pretty. But Fisch wasn't the only bad hire. Nepotism reared up and saw 2 of BB's kids given promotions they weren't qualified for - for 1 especially. Hopefully with a year under their belt they both get better this year with tutelage from BB so that his long term plan for them can be fulfilled.
 
Glad you're reading these. Brad's been a go-to discussion buddy for a while.
It's always good to look for value beyond the most obvious front line answers to personnel acquisition.

Interesting to me that the local media didn't make more of the coaching issues over the last 2 years. Losing some well established, important coaches really hurt this team the last few years. Losing Flores was the kill stroke. He grew up with this team and knew the players probably better than BB himself. The void left behind when Flores and Judge left was huge and still hasn't been filled completely.

What made it worse was the addition of replacement coaches who had a negative affect on play. Specifically, Jedd Fisch - he couldn't have been worse for these Pats QBs in this offense.
I literally jumped for joy when I heard he was leaving (fired). Can you imagine trying to force Cam Newton into a drop back pocket passer? We saw it and it wasn't pretty. But Fisch wasn't the only bad hire. Nepotism reared up and saw 2 of BB's kids given promotions they weren't qualified for - for 1 especially. Hopefully with a year under their belt they both get better this year with tutelage from BB so that his long term plan for them can be fulfilled.
wondering if bb had to bring his sons along more quickly than he would have wanted to due to departures.
 
Glad you're reading these. Brad's been a go-to discussion buddy for a while.
It's always good to look for value beyond the most obvious front line answers to personnel acquisition.

Interesting to me that the local media didn't make more of the coaching issues over the last 2 years. Losing some well established, important coaches really hurt this team the last few years. Losing Flores was the kill stroke. He grew up with this team and knew the players probably better than BB himself. The void left behind when Flores and Judge left was huge and still hasn't been filled completely.

What made it worse was the addition of replacement coaches who had a negative affect on play. Specifically, Jedd Fisch - he couldn't have been worse for these Pats QBs in this offense.
I literally jumped for joy when I heard he was leaving (fired). Can you imagine trying to force Cam Newton into a drop back pocket passer? We saw it and it wasn't pretty. But Fisch wasn't the only bad hire. Nepotism reared up and saw 2 of BB's kids given promotions they weren't qualified for - for 1 especially. Hopefully with a year under their belt they both get better this year with tutelage from BB so that his long term plan for them can be fulfilled.
It's stupid to try to force a square peg into a round hole. I don't think it's bad to experiment...but, if the experiment doesn't work...unless you use different varients/angels/twists to further explore the initial experiment, it's most likely not going to work.
 
wondering if bb had to bring his sons along more quickly than he would have wanted to due to departures.
I don't think that hiring family is a bad thing per se, I've worked for my dad when I was a kid. But, if I sucked ass at my job (I was awesome at it), I would look at legit upgrades. Time also helps people grow into their job...maturity and experience and whatnot. A job is definitely earned though...no doubt.
 
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