Rebuilding The Patriots For 2021 And Beyond

Jeff Howe gives his thoughts - the Athletic

My comments:
I'll add Fla. QB Kyle Trask to his list of QBs to draft. 6'5", 240. Drop back pocket presence++ with decent mobility. 2020 stats - 70% completion rate, 4125 yds, 11.6 AY/A, 43 TDs and only 5 ints. BB could trade back to around 20-25 and still get Trask while adding a late 2nd or early 3rd to boot.

Kyle Trask College Stats, School, Draft, Gamelog, Splits | College Football at Sports-Reference.com

Check out Kyle Trask's College Stats, School, Draft, Gamelog, Splits and More College Stats at Sports-Reference.com

www.sports-reference.com

WRs - Marvin Jones &/or Corey Davis would be perfect, thank you.
TE - Hunter Henry for sure. He'd help immensely.
Adding a TE & 2 WRs would do wonders for the offense.
LB - Lavonte David has been productive his entire career plus he can cover a back or a TE.
Of our own FAs, I'm not certain JMac will be back, at least not as a CB; maybe at S. I'd like to keep Byrd and James White.

10 New England Patriots predictions for 2021

They will acquire a new QB. Mike Onwenu will settle in for a big role. And N'Keal Harry ... will improve — because he has to, right?

theathletic.com

By Jeff Howe Dec 28, 2020

44

The best thing about 2020? There’s at least a sliver of hope it’ll turn to 2021.
That’s where the Patriots have set their focus, as the regular season will expire in a week and they can turn their attention toward the next phase of their rebuild.
So let’s do the same and make 10 bold predictions for the upcoming year. Due to the likelihood that many of these predictions won’t be worth the paper they’re printed on, this message will soon self-destruct. No receipts, please.

1. The Patriots will trade up to draft a quarterback and keep* Cam Newton​

Bill Belichick has publicly acknowledged the advantages of building a roster around a quarterback on a rookie contract, and there are four franchise-caliber talents who are projected top-10 picks.
Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence will likely be the No. 1 pick — too rich for the Patriots — and BYU’s Zach Wilson, Ohio State’s Justin Fields and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance will be gone shortly thereafter. It’ll most likely cost the Patriots at least a pair of first-round picks to get into range to select one of them.
That’s a price worth paying if there’s conviction behind their evaluation of the right quarterback, and the pace of their rebuild depends on it.
There’d be some value in keeping Newton on a short-money contract, especially if the Patriots boost the talent at tight end and wide receiver. If the Patriots trade up to draft a quarterback, they’re not going to want to also spend a significant chunk of cap space on a veteran, so keeping Newton would make some sense.
He’s good for the locker room and should be a solid mentor for a rookie. If the draft pick isn’t ready to start early in the season, Newton would be a serviceable placeholder.
(*I changed my mind three times while writing this section, could do so 10 more times depending how Jarrett Stidham is involved in the final two games and might do so hundreds more times prior to free agency.)

2. The Patriots will extend Stephon Gilmore’s contract and place a second-round tender on J.C. Jackson​

Gilmore is still playing at an extremely high level, but he’ll only earn $7.5 million in cash next season because the Patriots have accelerated future earnings to keep him competitively compensated over the past two seasons.
While Gilmore’s name has come up in trade conversations, the Patriots didn’t come close to dealing him because there was never an acceptable offer on the table, according to a source. The presumption is the Patriots wouldn’t move him for less than a first-round pick. Would their price actually come down in the next three months, and how much will the torn quad impact his fate?
Keeping Gilmore would therefore make the most sense. A two-year, $28.5 million extension would be fair value, rolling that into the balance of his current contract for a three-year, $36 million pact.
Jackson is a restricted free agent, and the Patriots would like to accumulate more picks, particularly under the premise that they’re willing to trade into the top 10 for a quarterback. The Patriots’ two options with Jackson would be to give him a first- or second-round tender, but it’s historically rare for an opposing team to sign away a restricted free agent at the cost of a first-round pick.
Therefore, use a second-round tender, and entice a team to sign Jackson to an offer sheet. That’s an affordable price for a corner with a budding reputation around the league, and the Patriots could use the second-round asset while replacing Jackson with Joejuan Williams or Myles Bryant. They could also re-sign Jason McCourty.

3. The Patriots’ two biggest splashes in free agency will be Hunter Henry and Lavonte David​

Henry will be the top tight end on the market, so he’ll require a contract worth an average annual value of at least $10 million. But Henry also probably got the memo this month that Belichick is infatuated with him.
The Patriots desperately need more production at tight end. Rookies Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene could still grow into solid pieces, but how long will it take? The Patriots can’t go a third consecutive year devoid of statistical output from the position, and Henry would be the answer.
David, a linebacker who turns 31 in January, has flown under the radar in Tampa but has been reliable and productive on all three downs throughout his career. If the Patriots can get him for $8-9 million annually, they can stick him in the middle of their defense with Dont’a Hightower and let Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings flourish alongside them.
The front seven would enjoy an immediate upgrade with David on the inside.

4. Josh Uche will become the Patriots’ top pass rusher​

This is an easy one.
Uche has made an impact with his increased role over the past month, and his trajectory should have a sharp ascension with a normal offseason. Chase Winovich has had a very good season as the Patriots’ best pass rusher, but Uche’s raw talent will shine once the Patriots remove his training wheels.

5. The Patriots will focus on the second tier of free-agent wide receivers​

It would be a surprise if the Patriots completely abandoned their philosophy on paying receivers just because they’ve got $60 million in projected cap space, the fourth-most in the NFL.
That’s why $14-18 million annually doesn’t add up for JuJu Smith-Schuster, Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay or Will Fuller. Rather, it’d make more sense to try to snare a pair of the next tier that includes Curtis Samuel, Marvin Jones, Sammy Watkins and Corey Davis.
If the Patriots can land two of them, somehow land one of the plethora of talented wideouts in the draft and combine them with Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers, the group would look much better.

6. The Patriots will re-sign Joe Thuney​

The Pats used the $14.8 million franchise tag on Thuney despite being tight against the cap because they hoped to extend him to a long-term contract. The two sides were never close to an extension before the deadline, nor were the Patriots close to trading him due to an absence of acceptable offers. They also weren’t going to just flip him to the highest bidder due to his value to the team, which played out tenfold as he hopped between left guard and center early in the season.
It’d be surprising if they didn’t continue to offer him a competitive contract. There are only 10 teams with at least $30 million in projected cap room, and it’s tough to envision most of them using a major chunk of it on an interior lineman. Maybe Washington or the Bengals makes a huge push, but Thuney would then have to decide between the fattest payday and an environment he knows best and is closer to achieving postseason success.
It’s unconventional for teams to devote so much cap space to guard, as Shaq Mason will carry a $9.775 million cap hit, but the Patriots can pull it off while their tackles are on rookie contracts.

1/2​

 

[Post 2]

Now, they’ve got Ju’Wuan Bentley, Hall, Devin Asiasi, Dalton Keene and a bunch of other guys you’ve never heard of.
“The first thing that jumps out is how different the tight end position is,” said an AFC personnel director. “It’s so obvious, but to go from not just Gronk, but also guys like Marty [Martellus Bennett], and that staple with Brady, he was so associated with tight ends going up the seam and in the red area, to overdrafted Asisasi and way-overdrafted Keene is jarring. … And then it’s guys like Terez Hall at linebacker. There’s a dearth of talent at linebacker and tight end, and Cam’s issue accelerated the problem.
“Those are heartbeat positions for that team, and they’re just bad at those spots.”

The specialty-player problem. One executive I talked to pointed out how Belichick, every year, will draft and build the team to his schedule. One good example of it working was 2014, when New England faced a gauntlet of explosive passing games, and landed Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner to prepare for it. More recently, attempts to do this have been less successful.

One came in 2019. With athletic tight ends like Travis Kelce, Evan Engram, Mark Andrews, David Njoku and Zach Ertz on the slate, the Patriots took supersized Vanderbilt corner Joejuan Williams in the second round, thinking he could fill the kind of role Patrick Chung has for them in recent years to deal with them. The idea, on paper, made sense. But the question is whether doing that costs them someone better. And if they keep making decisions like that, how many better players are they passing on?

“Bill is such a great coach that he’ll always be able to devise plans around your strengths and weaknesses,” said our NFC personnel director. “But you can take that too far, and it seems like too many times he’s settled for lesser players because they can do this one thing really well.”

And that’s where, at times, you’ve seen the Patriots take guys who were good-not-great way too high because they liked a certain thing the player could do—and that even extends to specific skills like long-snapping (hello, Joe Cardona).
“They took Jordan Richards—we had him on our back board, as a free agent, and they took him in the second round,” said our AFC executive. “Without the quarterback, it’s caught up with them.”

Thus, you have players running on and off the field in an ugly Monday-night loss to Buffalo to play a certain situation, and a roster full of guys brought aboard for one or two specific reasons, to make up for a lack of guys who can do everything well.

The Bills—the team that laid that 38–9 whooping on New England, and one that could’ve been 59–9 if Sean McDermott hadn’t called the dogs off—provided an interesting contrast on that field. Four years into the McDermott–Brandon Beane era, the Bills are stocked with long-term answers, boasting a cornerstone in every single position group.

It’s Allen at quarterback, Stefon Diggs at receiver, Dawson Knox at tight end, Devin Singletary and Zack Moss at tailback, Dion Dawkins on the offensive line, Ed Oliver on the defensive line, Tremaine Edmunds at linebacker and Tre’Davious White in the secondary. You can say, with certainty, that most if not all those players will be on the team three years from now.

How many Patriots can you say that about? The harsh truth is there might not be one, and that Bills team, along with an upwardly mobile Dolphins group, is what New England will be chasing in the AFC East next year.

Maybe they’ll get their preseason opt-outs back, but even that might not solve much. Chung turns 34 in August, Hightower turns 31 in March, and it’s hard to project whether they, or other thirtysomethings like McCourty, Matthew Slater and Gilmore (and Gilmore could be gone in 2021 anyway) will have much left by the time the Patriots can turn the downward momentum they’re battling against now, with a 10–14 record over the last season and a half.

And here’s another hard truth—it might not be worth fighting against the short-term pain they’re already feeling.

“They do have a bunch of picks coming, with the comp picks factored in, which gives you the ability to go young,” said our AFC personnel director. “And you have a damn good feeling that Buffalo and Miami are gonna be good again, and that one is going to win the division. So it’ll be a hard division to win, and that means this might be the year to do it, just hit reset, play a lot of young guys, and then in 2022, here we go.”

It’s probably tough for a New England fan base that hasn’t faced a reality like this in a generation to swallow the idea of that. But it would be harder to understand the idea of staying the course they’re currently on.
Because at the root of it, the problem isn’t complicated.

“Yeah,” said our AFC exec, “that’s just not a good roster.”

How the Wheels Came Off the Patriots' Dynasty

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Hopefully all that talk gives BB an extra push to excel this off season.

 

Another good article from Jeff Howe on the rebuild process 1/3

So, who to keep? And who to target through free agency and the draft?
Let’s examine the Patriots roster by position, first looking internally and then gauging the available pool of talent around the league and in the draft. (All free agents are unrestricted unless otherwise noted.)

Quarterbacks​

Under contract: Jarrett Stidham
Free agents: Cam Newton, Brian Hoyer, Jake Dolegala (exclusive rights free agent)
Internal analysis: The Patriots have not given definitive word on their future plans regarding Newton, although Bill Belichick’s loyalty to him throughout the season is an indication that Newton will remain a candidate to return, even if it’s to compete for the starting job or to bridge the gap until a younger quarterback is ready. Newton would be a low-budget option, but likely not nearly as cheap as the $4 million or so that he’ll earn this season. Stidham’s season was a major disappointment. His candidacy for the top job sank with seven interceptions and a hip injury in the first four days of training camp, and he clearly didn’t do enough in practice since that point to warrant a start Monday against the Bills.
Notable free agents: Dak Prescott could be the most coveted free agent, but his recovery from a compound fracture and dislocated ankle is crucial. You’re either paying for a healthy player in the ballpark of $35 million per year or buying damaged goods at a discount. Philip Rivers, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tyrod Taylor are stop-gap candidates. Carson Wentz, Matthew Stafford, Teddy Bridgewater, Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariota and Gardner Minshew could be trade candidates or cap casualties. Ditto for Sam Darnold, though it’s impossible to envision the Jets sending him to the Patriots.

External analysis: You’ll get what you pay for here, but the Patriots are at least in a favorable position with a projected $60 million in cap space, fourth-most in the NFL and more than twice as much as 23 teams, to give themselves a disproportionate spending advantage.
But would they break the bank at the position for the first time in 20 years for a healthy Prescott? Seems unlikely. Rivers, Fitzpatrick and Taylor would be far cheaper but would also carry a limited ceiling. Trading for Garoppolo or Bridgewater seems unnecessary, but they would be a bit more attractive if they’re released and would take more modest contracts. If Mariota or Minshew are available for a Saturday draft pick, that’d be OK as long as they’re viewed as competition and not the solution.

Stafford, who turns 33 in February, might be one to watch. He’s got cap hits of $20 million in 2021 and $23 million in 2022 for an acquiring team. If the Lions’ new GM-coach tandem is interested in parting with Stafford, what’s the cost? A second-rounder? Third? His affordable contract is enticing, and it’s always been worth wondering how much he’s been held back by those lousy teams.

Ryan, under contract through 2023, would carry a $23 million cap hit in 2021 for an acquiring team and no guaranteed money beyond next season. However, the Falcons are a projected $24 million over the cap and trading Ryan would put them an extra $9 million in the hole, so that trade would mean the Falcons are essentially giving up on 2021. Wentz seems even more unrealistic, as the Eagles are already projected to be $70 million over the cap and trading him would create another $24.5 million in cap penalties. Such a move wouldn’t just signal an Eagles rebuild, but an entire gut job.

The Patriots are going to have to pay in some capacity, either financially or with draft assets. If they want Zach Wilson, Trey Lance or Justin Fields, they’ll have to trade into the top 5-8 picks. But employing a quarterback on a rookie contract gives them far more flexibility to spend at other positions. If they don’t want to pony up for a high pick, they’ve got to figure out if Mac Jones’ game will translate from Alabama to the NFL or if Kyle Trask can ever improve his mobility and pocket presence enough to pair with his incredible arm.

Running backs​

Under contract: Damien Harris, Sony Michel, J.J. Taylor, Brandon Bolden (2020 opt-out)
Free agents: James White, Rex Burkhead
Internal analysis: Harris showed he can be a No. 1 back if he can avoid the minor injuries that keep derailing him. Injuries also thwarted much of Michel’s season, though he ran hard in flashes. Taylor is intriguing, but he is more likely a rotational player due to his 5-foot-6, 185-pound stature. White’s production dipped significantly post-Tom Brady, but so did the 28-year-old’s playing time. While it’s hard to envision White in another uniform, would he prefer to move closer to home by linking up with Brian Flores in Miami or Brady in Tampa? There’s been no timetable given on Burkhead’s return, but the nature of his knee injury could theoretically eat into the start of the season. This group could look different next year.

Notable free agents: The name recognition probably exceeds this group’s future production: Le’Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore, Leonard Fournette, Todd Gurley, Kenyan Drake, Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman. Aaron Jones might be the prize with James Conner behind him. Marlon Mack and Boston Scott could be Patriots-style players if they’re looking to mix up the back end of the depth chart.

External analysis: There’s a good group of draft prospects, but it’d be a surprise if the Patriots were shopping for one in the first three rounds. They’ll have to add at least one back to replace Burkhead and maybe two if White leaves. Fournette would be an interesting camp body. Bell always would have looked good in a Patriots uniform, but his production has dipped considerably. Neither should be pricey. Look for the Patriots to add a veteran and a Saturday pick into the mix.

Fullbacks​

Under contract: Dan Vitale (2020 opt-out)
Free agents: Jakob Johnson (exclusive rights free agent)
Internal analysis: Vitale would have competed for Johnson’s job if he didn’t opt out. As an exclusive rights free agent, the Patriots will keep Johnson as long as they offer him a contract. Johnson keeps improving, but expect the Pats to make him earn the job, either if Vitale returns or with someone else.

Notable free agents: Kyle Juszczyk is the best fullback in the league in the post-James Develin era, but he’ll likely come with a $5 million price tag. Anthony Sherman, Anthony Firkser and Michael Burton could be other options.

External analysis: If Vitale doesn’t return, expect the Patriots to add another fullback in free agency, simply for competition purposes.

Wide receivers​

Under contract: Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry, Jakobi Meyers, Gunner Olszewski, Matthew Slater, Marqise Lee (2020 opt-out)
Free agents: Damiere Byrd, Donte Moncrief, Devin Smith; Kristian Wilkerson, Isaiah Zuber (exclusive rights free agents)
Internal analysis: Edelman was inarguably a No. 1 receiver during his prime, but it’s time to wonder how much he’s got left or if it’s realistic to believe he can get through another 16-game season without these recurring knee issues. The Pats would save $4 million against the cap if they move on from the Super Bowl LIII MVP. Harry is a roster lock in 2021. Meyers’ ascension should keep him around, too. Olszewski and Lee will be camp competition along with Moncrief, Smith, Wilkerson and Zuber if they choose to keep them. Byrd surpassed expectations, but assuming the Patriots want to remake this depth chart, they can let him walk.

 

2/3
Notable free agents: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chris Godwin, Allen Robinson, T.Y. Hilton, Kenny Golladay and Will Fuller will probably cost $14-18 million annually. The second tier, which includes Curtis Samuel, Marvin Jones, Sammy Watkins, Nelson Agholor, Corey Davis and Tim Patrick should be more of the Patriots’ flavor, assuming they’d be in the $5-10 million annual range. Or could this finally be the year they try to pry Larry Fitzgerald from the Cardinals (probably not)? Keelan Cole, John Ross, Kendrick Bourne, Demarcus Robinson and Dede Westbrook could be budget options for competition.

External analysis: This is another incredibly deep draft class at receiver, although the Patriots completely ignored the heralded 2020 class and have had their well-documented struggles when they do pull the trigger. If they don’t trade up and Alabama’s DeVonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle are still on the board, would they bite? There might be other opportunities with cap casualties, but Julio Jones seems unrealistic because the Falcons would incur a $15.5 million cap penalty. Others could include Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson or Emmanuel Sanders. Or maybe the Cowboys would be willing to trade Michael Gallup a year before his contract expires. The Patriots need to add at least one starting-caliber veteran and maybe two, depending on their plans for Edelman, and they’ve got to take a swing at the draft pool.

Tight ends​

Under contract: Devin Asiasi, Dalton Keene, Ryan Izzo, Matt LaCosse (2020 opt-out)
Free agents: Jake Burt (exclusive rights free agent)
Internal analysis: Patriots tight ends have combined for 15 catches on 26 targets for 209 yards and zero touchdowns with two fumbles this season. That’s nowhere near a level of acceptable production. Have you ever heard of Ross Dwelley? Well, he’s one of 43 tight ends who have exceeded that production by himself. Anyway, don’t write off Asiasi and Keene. With the demands of this offense and an absence of a normal offseason, this was an impossible situation for the pair, and their injury issues didn’t help their cause. Izzo and LaCosse should merely be camp competition next summer.

Notable free agents: Hunter Henry is the marquee name and will probably earn $11 million annually, but Jonnu Smith could be a nice consolation prize in the $8 million range. Rob Gronkowski (no chance), Gerald Everett, Jared Cook, Trey Burton, Jordan Reed, Greg Olsen, Jason Witten and Jacob Hollister are also free agents. Everett, Cook and maybe Olsen would be the only ones who could be deemed an upgrade among that group. Also, keep an eye on potential trade candidates or cap casualties like Zach Ertz, O.J. Howard and David Njoku.

External analysis: Henry or Smith would completely reinvigorate an offense that hasn’t had nearly enough tight end production over the last two years, but the Patriots have to make a determination on Asiasi and Keene. Will either be good enough to be a No. 1 tight end after a full offseason program? If not, spend on Henry or Smith. If yes, Everett or Cook might be decent rotational pieces. The best option should still be signing Henry or Smith, complementing that addition with Asiasi and Keene and then working the offense through the middle of the field while mixing in a couple of the aforementioned receiver targets. It’d also be really interesting if Penn State’s Pat Freiermuth is on the board when the Patriots are up in the second round.

Offensive linemen​

Under contract: Isaiah Wynn, Shaq Mason, Mike Onwenu, Justin Herron, Yodny Cajuste, Korey Cunningham; Marcus Cannon, Najee Toran (2020 opt-outs)
Free agents: Joe Thuney, David Andrews, Jermaine Eluemunor, James Ferentz, Caleb Benenoch, Marcus Martin; Ross Reynolds, Jordan Steckler (exclusive rights free agents)
Internal analysis: Wynn looks like a bona fide franchise left tackle when healthy, but that has only happened in spurts. Thuney, Andrews and Mason comprise one of the best interior trios in the NFL. Onwenu was a godsend at left guard, right guard and right tackle, and the Patriots should ride him on the right edge for years to come. Herron should be the top swing tackle next season. The Patriots can save $7 million in cap space by releasing Cannon, whose play deteriorated in his previous two seasons. The Patriots have wanted to keep Thuney, but the two sides weren’t close on extension talks last offseason. A five-year, $65 million contract, including $25 million guaranteed, would be more than fair, but the team’s offers and his demands are unknown. Andrews is finishing out a three-year, $9 million contract. If he wants to be paid like a top-10 center, the Patriots will need to offer him $10 million annually, as the price of the position has gone up considerably. They’ll probably only be able to keep one of Thuney or Andrews, but the Patriots have also done a very good job of drafting and developing at the interior positions.

Notable free agents: Alex Mack, Mike Pouncey, Ted Karras, Corey Linsley, Austin Reiter and Matt Skura at center; Dan Feeney, Brandon Scherff, Lane Taylor, Ryan Groy and J.R. Sweezy at guard; Trent Williams, Russell Okung, Jason Peters, Cameron Fleming, Cameron Erving, Cam Robinson, Le’Raven Clark, Kelvin Beachum, Mike Remers, Germain Ifedi, Taylor Moton at tackle.

External analysis: The Patriots don’t tend to tap into the veteran market on the offensive line, save for a value deal like Trent Brown or a cheaper rotational backup with starting experience who is willing to compete for a job. And they’re in good shape despite Dante Scarnecchia’s retirement, as line coaches Cole Popovich and Carmen Bricillo had a terrific year. It might be a long shot, but factoring in Wynn’s injury history, would they consider Northwestern tackle Rashawn Slater or Virginia Tech’s Christian Darrisaw in the middle of the first round? Unlikely. But depending what happens with Thuney and Andrews, they will have to make at least one addition, probably during the middle rounds of the draft.

Defensive linemen​

Under contract: Chase Winovich, Byron Cowart, Beau Allen, Tashawn Bower, Akeem Spence
Free agents: Lawrence Guy, Adam Butler, John Simon, Shilique Calhoun, Carl Davis, Deatrich Wise; Rashod Berry, Nick Thurman, Bill Murray, Isaiah Mack (exclusive rights free agents)
Internal analysis: This group could look vastly different after carrying similar depth charts for two seasons. Allen was supposed to be Danny Shelton’s replacement but suffered two injuries in practice and never played a game. Winovich has easily been the Patriots’ best pass rusher but has to be more disciplined to become a three-down player. Cowart is an improving rotational piece. Bower and Spence should be camp competition. Guy and Butler are tough to predict. Guy turns 31 in March and should be affordable, but Butler is on the rise and could fetch a big contract. Could he approach $10 million annually? Hard to say. Wise also had his best season and could price himself out of his role in New England. Simon surprisingly regressed this season. Calhoun was a nice rotational piece, had a special teams role and could return as camp competition. Davis had some nice moments on the field before he was placed on injured reserve with a concussion.

 

3/3
Notable free agents: Interior players include Solomon Thomas, DaQuan Jones, Leonard Williams, Dalvin Tomlinson, Ndamukong Suh, Johnathan Hankins, Sheldon Rankins, Derek Wolfe and Christian Covington. Edge players, including pass rushing outside linebackers, include Jadeveon Clowney, Yannick Ngakoue, Shaq Barrett, Bud Dupree, Leonard Floyd, Matt Judon, Melvin Ingram, Everson Griffen, Ryan Kerrigan, Olivier Vernon, Romeo Okwara and Ezekiel Ansah.

External analysis: This is a tough area to reboot through free agency because high-caliber players easily eclipse $10 million per year, and pass rushers are worth considerably more than that. Belichick has never paid a premium price for a pass rusher from outside the organization. However, with a rush of edge players hitting the market in an offseason where cap space is tight around the league, there are bound to be some underpaid veterans who are willing to take one-year deals. More than anything, the Patriots need to shore up their run defense, something Tomlinson does well. And then there’s the conundrum of drafting an interior run specialist, which shouldn’t be addressed until at least the third round, but how quickly can they rely on a mid-round pick to solve these issues? Belichick has done a good job of finding the Guys of the world, who fit into the equation on affordable contracts. He’s got to hit on a couple of those and then build the pass rush off Winovich and the younger linebackers.

Linebackers​

Under contract: Anfernee Jennings, Josh Uche, Ja’Whaun Bentley, Terez Hall, Brandon King, Dont’a Hightower (2020 opt-out)
Free agents: Brandon Copeland; Cassh Maluia and Michael Pinckney (exclusive rights free agents); Jack Cichy (restricted free agent)
Internal analysis: If Hightower decides to return — that’s still an unknown — that would immediately solve a lot of issues, from on-field communication to run defense to timely pass rushing and even leadership with Jennings and Uche. Bentley had a rollercoaster year, but he was also put in a really tough spot in the middle of a thin linebacker group and behind an injured and inexperienced collection of defensive tackles, while also playing more than ever before. Uche should be the Patriots’ best pass rusher next season, and Jennings is more of a run-heavy edge defender who could work his way into a few sacks per season. Both should be viewed as breakout candidates after a full offseason program. Hall, like Bentley, is a nice piece who needs time to grow and could benefit by being a rotational early-down defender.

Notable free agents: Lavonte David, Von Miller, Matt Milano, Jayon Brown, Neville Hewitt, Tyrell Adams, Eric Wilson, Alex Singleton, Avery Williamson, K.J. Wright, De’Vondre Campbell, Malcolm Smith, B.J. Goodson, Josh Bynes and Anthony Walker Jr. could all fit the bill.

External analysis: Miller will be an interesting one to watch around the league and will be paid off reputation after suffering a season-ending injury in camp. If the Patriots are willing to spend closer to $10 million annually, David could be a terrific piece for their defense. Brown, Hewitt, Adams and Walker are more under-the-radar players, but the Patriots need a veteran in the middle of the defense, maybe two if Hightower doesn’t return. If the Patriots can put one of those five — David, Brown, Hewitt, Adams or Walker — in the middle with Hightower and let Uche and Jennings expand their roles on the edge, it’d go a long way toward improving the front. If they add two of those five, they could rotate Hightower with Uche and Jennings on the outside with Bentley and Hall backing up the inside pairing. The Pats aren’t that far away from restoring their linebackers, but Hightower’s status is significant to that process.

Cornerbacks​

Under contract: Stephon Gilmore, Jon Jones, Joejuan Williams, Myles Bryant​

Free agents: J.C. Jackson (restricted), Jason McCourty, Justin Bethel; D’Angelo Ross and Michael Jackson (exclusive rights free agents)
Internal analysis: Gilmore again played at an elite level, while Jackson is in the conversation for the best No. 2 corner in the league. The Patriots will have to negotiate an extension with Gilmore, who is set to earn $7.5 million next season after the team accelerated his bonus money into 2020. The issue is that top-tier corners are paid $15-20 million annually, but they’re all in their 20s while Gilmore turned 30 in September. Another issue: Darius Slay signed a three-year, $51 million extension with the Eagles after his trade from the Lions. But Slay, who turns 30 on Friday, had more leverage due to the trade. If they can’t find common ground, a trade could be the fallout, and realistic compensation might only be a second-round pick. The Pats could dare Gilmore to hold out, as teams have more leverage now under the new CBA, but that wouldn’t be a good look from a business perspective because Gilmore has been a model player and person.

The Pats will have to place a first- or second-round tender on Jackson. If it’s a first, expect him to be around in 2021. If it’s a second, it’d be surprising if another team didn’t extend an offer sheet because he is well-respected around the NFL. McCourty hasn’t decided whether he wants to retire but should remain in the Patriots’ plans if he wants to return, especially if they lose Gilmore or Jackson. Bethel might be the second-best special teamer in the league behind Slater. Jones remains an upper-level slot corner, and Bryant has intriguing potential. Williams is trending in the wrong direction, a healthy scratch in Week 15 and playing limited snaps Monday night despite Gilmore’s absence. Michael Jackson has some feistiness to his game and should compete for a roster spot next summer.

Notable free agents: Patrick Peterson, Richard Sherman, Josh Norman, Xavier Rhodes, Jimmy Smith, Mike Hilton, P.J. Williams and Troy Hill are the headliners of a fairly thin group.
External analysis: The Patriots probably won’t be in the market for anyone in this group unless they somehow — and this doesn’t seem likely at all — lose both Gilmore and Jackson. If the Patriots go the draft route, they could get Alabama’s Patrick Surtain II in the first round, although they have greater needs at that spot, or South Carolina’s Jaycee Horn, Florida State’s Asante Samuel or Alabama’s Josh Jobe with a Friday pick. Jobe, by the way, was high school teammates with Uche.

Safeties​

Under contract: Devin McCourty, Kyle Dugger, Adrian Phillips, Patrick Chung (2020 opt-out)
Free agents: Cody Davis, Terrence Brooks
Internal analysis: McCourty is still playing at a very high level and plans to play next season. Chung is expected to return, so that’ll boost the group. Dugger displayed some awesome potential as a rookie and should have a greater role after a full offseason. Phillips played linebacker this season, so we’ll see where he slots in the rotation next season with Chung and Dugger, especially if the Pats add veterans to the linebacker group. Davis was a terrific special teamer who would be worth re-signing. Brooks, a healthy scratch in Weeks 13-14, has been serviceable for two seasons but could be the odd man out if they project Phillips as more of a safety than linebacker next season.

Notable free agents: Justin Simmons, Anthony Harris, Jaquiski Tartt, Duron Harmon, Keanu Neal, Karl Joseph, Sean Davis and Malik Hooker are at the top of an intriguing group.

External analysis: Simmons and Harris should get paid. Tartt and Neal could, too. The Patriots traded Harmon for cap relief last offseason. Would they reunite? Joseph and Hooker haven’t lived up to their pre-draft billing. The Patriots probably won’t be active in the safety market because their starting group is intact.

Specialists​

Under contract: Jake Bailey, Joe Cardona
Free agents: Nick Folk, Justin Rohrwasser (exclusive rights free agent), Roberto Aguayo
Internal analysis: Folk has had a very good year and saved the Patriots from the Rohrwasser pick. However, his lack of range is an issue. Aguayo is one of the greatest draft busts in recent memory but would be a fun storyline to monitor if they give him a chance to compete next summer. Bailey was a deserving Pro Bowler, and Cardona has been as solid as they come.

Notable free agents: Younghoe Koo, Cairo Santos, Ryan Succop, Cody Parkey, Randy Bullock, Dustin Hopkins, Matt Prater, Zane Gonzalez, Michael Badgley and Stephen Gostkowski are free-agent kickers.

External analysis: Koo, who was on the Pats practice squad in 2019, and Santos are the best available free agents. Santos has kicked well in Chicago’s elements, so he might be the more preferable between the two. It’s still a little early to know how the upcoming draft class will shake out.

New England Patriots 2021 rebuild: New QB is just the start

Let’s examine the Patriots roster by position, first looking internally and then gauging the available pool of talent around the league.

theathletic.com

 

Howe covered the situation thoroughly & I really can't argue with anything Howe says. We need upgrades in the front 7, TE and WR positions. He discussed a lot of FAs who could help BB build a winning team. The biggest upgrade is still QB and there's no clear answer right now although there are a few possibilities.

 

The good news is, the Pats have built up a lot of cap space for next season......

 

One stat mentioned last night was that the Pats had the highest average points in the league over the last 20 years at right around 27 point something and this year they are at 20 point something and dead last.

So, all the struggles and horrible 3 and outs. All the coverage sacks and turnovers and defenses stacking the box and the difference is approximately one TD per game. Not three. Not two.

Can we find a passable passing game and 7 points per game this offseason? Is that the difference between where we are right now and being a team that can truly compete again?

I supposed that, in the wake of the giddy funeral celebrated by most of America last night -- what history will someday view as the absolute low point for the BB era -- that we aren't really as far away as our emotions might be telling us after sitting through that thorough and comprehensive beating.

I'd definitely welcome Hunter Henry and Lavonte David. That'd be a start. David, Uche and Chase will require two big-assed tough guys in the IDL who are currently not on the roster to pair in a rotation with L. Guy. I'd welcome Julian Edelman back and another vet that requires respect from defenses and the offense looks different.

Find us a QB that can be better than average. A tall order, but I choose to believe that it must and will happen.

I still think all the opt-outs had a huge effect on this season. Not the only reason, before someone goes postal, but losing that many starters had to have an effect.

 

I still think all the opt-outs had a huge effect on this season. Not the only reason, before someone goes postal, but losing that many starters had to have an effect.

They had NO effect on Scam's BS out on the field...

 

Howe covered the situation thoroughly & I really can't argue with anything Howe says. We need upgrades in the front 7, TE and WR positions. He discussed a lot of FAs who could help BB build a winning team. The biggest upgrade is still QB and there's no clear answer right now although there are a few possibilities.

I know what you mean, but I could pick a bone or two if I was in the mood. Like Deatrich Wise has earned a nice contract. He's a pure JAG. I'd beg him to leave if we had anybody in the pipeline but right now the cupboard is bare.

That was a decently comprehensive piece and the FA list is handy. I might study this up a bit.

My first take on the QB list is that I could definitely see Teddy Bridgewater fitting in here. He's always reminded me of Brady in playing style and I think he's finally developed into the kind of player and leader he was at Louisville. I thought he made Carolina look better than they were. He fits what we do on offense well and he sees the field one hell of a lot better than anybody we have now. He could probably handle all the sight-read heavy stuff we do with a little time to process. I wonder what it'd take to get him? I think he's one of the smartest QBs in football.

Another one that wouldn't surprise me is Gardner Minshew. I don't like him much, but Bill just might based on his football vagabond resume and his opinion counts more than mine.

 

I know what you mean, but I could pick a bone or two if I was in the mood. Like Deatrich Wise has earned a nice contract. He's a pure JAG. I'd beg him to leave if we had anybody in the pipeline but right now the cupboard is bare.

That was a decently comprehensive piece and the FA list is handy. I might study this up a bit.

My first take on the QB list is that I could definitely see Teddy Bridgewater fitting in here. He's always reminded me of Brady in playing style and I think he's finally developed into the kind of player and leader he was at Louisville. I thought he made Carolina look better than they were. He fits what we do on offense well and he sees the field one hell of a lot better than anybody we have now. He could probably handle all the sight-read heavy stuff we do with a little time to process. I wonder what it'd take to get him? I think he's one of the smartest QBs in football.

Another one that wouldn't surprise me is Gardner Minshew. I don't like him much, but Bill just might based on his football vagabond resume and his opinion counts more than mine.

Deatrich Wise was a major disappointment his first few years here & I thought he'd be released before the start of this year since his snaps played were way down in 2019. Then COVID hit with the opt-outs and he was spared. Nevertheless, this was his best year for the Pats but that's not saying much as his bar was in the basement from his previous play.

Teddy B. did a fine job subbing in NO but that contract is a little frightening at $24M/. Carolina should be thinking he'd have performed better with a full preseason of practices. His cap hit for 2021 is $20M so Car may as well hang on and hope. I mean, they already paid him $33M for 2020...what's another $24M with him vs $20M without him? Carolina will keep him around unless some team offers a couple of 1st round picks. That won't be BB.

My plan:
I'd give the Lions and Falcons a call to see if they had any interest in a trade.
If Stafford and Ryan aren't for sale, Dak would be my personal choice since he would check all the boxes for the next 8-10 years. $28M/ should do it - maybe $30M. It's not my money. QB problem solved. Screw Jerrah. The Cowboys have until Feb. to reach a long term agreement with Dak; a 2nd FT would cost them $37M & the Cowboys only have $27M in cap space if the 2021 cap remains at $175M. (I've heard talk the NFL is discussing an increase in the cap for next year to $195M.)

JimmyG's ship has sailed for me - BB may think he can fix him but then there's all that noise coming from JimmyG's personal lifestyle. And his injury history indicates more injuries are coming since they have all been of a similar nature. His ligaments are fragile. Bringing JG back would be a popular move with fans but that won't win any games.

BB could go another direction by signing a couple of hungry lower tier guys like Mariota or Taylor (or even Minshew) and let em fight it out in camp with Stidham (if he's still around).
Sometimes low probability bets pan out but that's not how I think BB will bet. And draft a QB in this year's 1st round.

The Jete are keeping Darnold without a question in my mind. That decision was made the week before they beat the Rams. I'd take him.

 

Yeah, the QB possibilities get more expansive every time a name comes up.

I expect before long somebody will write how Urban Meyer gave Bill a great recommendation of Duane Haskins. Watch more film and listen to less bullshit from your buddies would be my recommendation to Bill. If you think Haskins can play then build him a private strip club and pay him in ones. He can't play worth a damn right now, but you get my point.

Also, you feel Jimmy G. is done and maybe you're right, but we're going to have to sign somebody who has warts. I'd take him over Newton. Seems like every time I watch Jimmy he does well, minus the 2nd half of last years Super Bowl. Is fragile ligaments an actual thing now? Your point is taken. He's been hurt too much, but I've seen him fire too many darts right on the money to laugh at the possibility of him returning. That contract, though.

Mariota has flashed and then crashed his whole career. We all tend to put too much on the last thing we saw instead of the body of work, but he's a great kid who has been a below average player for 6 full seasons. I think he's a perfect backup with those wheels, but doubt he'd be a competent starter for long.

Dak will be the prize, but even he's had some really inexplicable meltdowns over his career.

You're doing a great job, Chevs. Don't take me personally. Gonna be a long offseason, but better days are coming.

 

Let's go and get Trey Lance in the draft.

 

Let's go and get Trey Lance in the draft.

I think you'll have to move up to do that. Pats certainly have the draft capital to make it happen & I'm a fan of Lance.

 

I don't think JimmyG is done but he hasn't lived up to that huge contract with SF. Are fragile ligaments a thing? In this sense - genetics is a thing. All his injuries have to do with his ligaments. First came his AC joint ligament sprain as a Patriot, then his Anterior Cruciate ligament and next his high ankle ligament tear with SF. Any 1 or 2 of these could happen to any individual player but to see all 3 occur in any single young player is worrisome.

It's also eye opening to me that SF has chosen to limit his passing plays even when he was healthy. SF continued to be a run heavy offense. JG ranked only 20th in passing volume last year, his SB year. He had more than 37 pass plays only 3 times and less than 25 passes in 5 games. In the playoffs last year he was called on to throw the ball only 11 times vs Minny and only 8 times vs GB. 8 times! SFs running game won both of those games relegating JG to a game manager while being paid handsomely.

Against the Chiefs, SF's running game started off great and when the 3rd qtr ended, SF was up 20-10 over the Chiefs. It looked good for SF up until KC scored to make it 20-17 - but SF was still ahead. On the next possession SF went 3 and out with JG throwing 2 incompletions and then KC scored again to go up 20-24. On the next possession JG/SF moved to the KC 49 with 32 rushing yds and 24 passing yds. Then JG had 3 straight incompletions and a sack on 4th down that gave the Chiefs the ball on SF's 42 with a min and a half to play. 2 plays later it was game over when KC scored on a 38 yd Damien Williams run to go up 20-31 with a minute to play. KC scored 21 pts in the last 6 minutes of the game; JG had the ball for 4 possessions in the 4th and scored 0 pts. During that last 6 mins JG went 2-9, 24 yds, 1 int and that sack on 4th down when SF had to pass to win.

No, I'm personally not sold on JG but you made me think a little more about it.
BB might like to manage JG in games; this team's OL is built to run like SF's and with a FB & TE to help block, the Pats' O could run the ball and win like the 49ers did last year.
Plus, SF can cut/trade him this off season and it only counts as $2.8 million against their 2021 cap space. It is not a stretch of the imagination to say they could move on after this season.

If cut (doubt it), Garoppolo should cost less than he did in San Francisco, something south of $20 million per year. With a trade, JG would be paid according to his contract - $24M for the next 2 years. That could work for the Pats/BB. Maybe JimmyG will return to help BB finish what was started and continue the dynasty. We'll see.

 

I wouldn't be wild on spending a significant amount of cash on Jimmy for him to come here and maybe miss one game out of every two due to injury. It would be a big risk. He's an excellent QB, technically. He has all the attributes, but there are some queries there on his physical resilience and some personal issues. BB could probably keep in check on the character side.

It's still bizarre the way BB got rid of him so dramatically and getting nothing for him in return. You'd love to know the true story there. Did BB do it as an FU to Kraft? Due to Kraft and Brady wanting Jimmy gone so Bill just said fine, San Francisco you can have him for nothing? And maybe a little shade to Tom shipping him to Tom's boyhood team? Or did Bill see something he didn't like in Jimmy and just decided to ship him to a team in the NFC that wouldn't be a direct threat.

 

I wouldn't be wild on spending a significant amount of cash on Jimmy for him to come here and maybe miss one game out of every two due to injury. It would be a big risk. He's an excellent QB, technically. He has all the attributes, but there are some queries there on his physical resilience and some personal issues. BB could probably keep in check on the character side.

It's still bizarre the way BB got rid of him so dramatically and getting nothing for him in return. You'd love to know the true story there. Did BB do it as an FU to Kraft? Due to Kraft and Brady wanting Jimmy gone so Bill just said fine, San Francisco you can have him for nothing? And maybe a little shade to Tom shipping him to Tom's boyhood team? Or did Bill see something he didn't like in Jimmy and just decided to ship him to a team in the NFC that wouldn't be a direct threat.

In retrospect, that high 2 we got looks like pretty good value. Doubt the niners get anything close to that if they do shop him. At least not on his current contract.

 

I don't think JimmyG is done but he hasn't lived up to that huge contract with SF. Are fragile ligaments a thing? In this sense - genetics is a thing. All his injuries have to do with his ligaments. First came his AC joint ligament sprain as a Patriot, then his Anterior Cruciate ligament and next his high ankle ligament tear with SF. Any 1 or 2 of these could happen to any individual player but to see all 3 occur in any single young player is worrisome.

It's also eye opening to me that SF has chosen to limit his passing plays even when he was healthy. SF continued to be a run heavy offense. JG ranked only 20th in passing volume last year, his SB year. He had more than 37 pass plays only 3 times and less than 25 passes in 5 games. In the playoffs last year he was called on to throw the ball only 11 times vs Minny and only 8 times vs GB. 8 times! SFs running game won both of those games relegating JG to a game manager while being paid handsomely.

Against the Chiefs, SF's running game started off great and when the 3rd qtr ended, SF was up 20-10 over the Chiefs. It looked good for SF up until KC scored to make it 20-17 - but SF was still ahead. On the next possession SF went 3 and out with JG throwing 2 incompletions and then KC scored again to go up 20-24. On the next possession JG/SF moved to the KC 49 with 32 rushing yds and 24 passing yds. Then JG had 3 straight incompletions and a sack on 4th down that gave the Chiefs the ball on SF's 42 with a min and a half to play. 2 plays later it was game over when KC scored on a 38 yd Damien Williams run to go up 20-31 with a minute to play. KC scored 21 pts in the last 6 minutes of the game; JG had the ball for 4 possessions in the 4th and scored 0 pts. During that last 6 mins JG went 2-9, 24 yds, 1 int and that sack on 4th down when SF had to pass to win.

No, I'm personally not sold on JG but you made me think a little more about it.
BB might like to manage JG in games; this team's OL is built to run like SF's and with a FB & TE to help block, the Pats' O could run the ball and win like the 49ers did last year.
Plus, SF can cut/trade him this off season and it only counts as $2.8 million against their 2021 cap space. It is not a stretch of the imagination to say they could move on after this season.

If cut (doubt it), Garoppolo should cost less than he did in San Francisco, something south of $20 million per year. With a trade, JG would be paid according to his contract - $24M for the next 2 years. That could work for the Pats/BB. Maybe JimmyG will return to help BB finish what was started and continue the dynasty. We'll see.

The bigger question is why would Jimmy want to be traded here in the midst of a rebuild? I would imagine he would ask Shanny to trade him to a competitive team that will pay him. I would not mind him coming here at all on the right contract but I don't see why he would want that. He will have plenty of suitors.

 

Jeff Howe gives his thoughts - the Athletic

My comments:
I'll add Fla. QB Kyle Trask to his list of QBs to draft. 6'5", 240. Drop back pocket presence++ with decent mobility. 2020 stats - 70% completion rate, 4125 yds, 11.6 AY/A, 43 TDs and only 5 ints. BB could trade back to around 20-25 and still get Trask while adding a late 2nd or early 3rd to boot.

Trask scares me a bit, in his bowl appearance he threw 3 picks in the first quarter. For a guy that threw 43 TD's and 5 picks all season, to get blasted like that in a bowl game kind of sets off a red flag. I know it was only one game, but man, that was a bad game by Trask. He made some foolish throws and he looked absolutely confused out there. I agree 100% about the WR's and TE btw.