Rebuilding The Patriots For 2021 And Beyond

Jeff Howe gives his thoughts - the Athletic

My comments:
I'll add Fla. QB Kyle Trask to his list of QBs to draft. 6'5", 240. Drop back pocket presence++ with decent mobility. 2020 stats - 70% completion rate, 4125 yds, 11.6 AY/A, 43 TDs and only 5 ints. BB could trade back to around 20-25 and still get Trask while adding a late 2nd or early 3rd to boot.
WRs - Marvin Jones &/or Corey Davis would be perfect, thank you.
TE - Hunter Henry for sure. He'd help immensely.
Adding a TE & 2 WRs would do wonders for the offense.
LB - Lavonte David has been productive his entire career plus he can cover a back or a TE.
Of our own FAs, I'm not certain JMac will be back, at least not as a CB; maybe at S. I'd like to keep Byrd and James White.




By Jeff Howe Dec 28, 2020
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The best thing about 2020? There’s at least a sliver of hope it’ll turn to 2021.
That’s where the Patriots have set their focus, as the regular season will expire in a week and they can turn their attention toward the next phase of their rebuild.
So let’s do the same and make 10 bold predictions for the upcoming year. Due to the likelihood that many of these predictions won’t be worth the paper they’re printed on, this message will soon self-destruct. No receipts, please.

1. The Patriots will trade up to draft a quarterback and keep* Cam Newton​

Bill Belichick has publicly acknowledged the advantages of building a roster around a quarterback on a rookie contract, and there are four franchise-caliber talents who are projected top-10 picks.
Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence will likely be the No. 1 pick — too rich for the Patriots — and BYU’s Zach Wilson, Ohio State’s Justin Fields and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance will be gone shortly thereafter. It’ll most likely cost the Patriots at least a pair of first-round picks to get into range to select one of them.
That’s a price worth paying if there’s conviction behind their evaluation of the right quarterback, and the pace of their rebuild depends on it.
There’d be some value in keeping Newton on a short-money contract, especially if the Patriots boost the talent at tight end and wide receiver. If the Patriots trade up to draft a quarterback, they’re not going to want to also spend a significant chunk of cap space on a veteran, so keeping Newton would make some sense.
He’s good for the locker room and should be a solid mentor for a rookie. If the draft pick isn’t ready to start early in the season, Newton would be a serviceable placeholder.
(*I changed my mind three times while writing this section, could do so 10 more times depending how Jarrett Stidham is involved in the final two games and might do so hundreds more times prior to free agency.)

2. The Patriots will extend Stephon Gilmore’s contract and place a second-round tender on J.C. Jackson​

Gilmore is still playing at an extremely high level, but he’ll only earn $7.5 million in cash next season because the Patriots have accelerated future earnings to keep him competitively compensated over the past two seasons.
While Gilmore’s name has come up in trade conversations, the Patriots didn’t come close to dealing him because there was never an acceptable offer on the table, according to a source. The presumption is the Patriots wouldn’t move him for less than a first-round pick. Would their price actually come down in the next three months, and how much will the torn quad impact his fate?
Keeping Gilmore would therefore make the most sense. A two-year, $28.5 million extension would be fair value, rolling that into the balance of his current contract for a three-year, $36 million pact.
Jackson is a restricted free agent, and the Patriots would like to accumulate more picks, particularly under the premise that they’re willing to trade into the top 10 for a quarterback. The Patriots’ two options with Jackson would be to give him a first- or second-round tender, but it’s historically rare for an opposing team to sign away a restricted free agent at the cost of a first-round pick.
Therefore, use a second-round tender, and entice a team to sign Jackson to an offer sheet. That’s an affordable price for a corner with a budding reputation around the league, and the Patriots could use the second-round asset while replacing Jackson with Joejuan Williams or Myles Bryant. They could also re-sign Jason McCourty.

3. The Patriots’ two biggest splashes in free agency will be Hunter Henry and Lavonte David​

Henry will be the top tight end on the market, so he’ll require a contract worth an average annual value of at least $10 million. But Henry also probably got the memo this month that Belichick is infatuated with him.
The Patriots desperately need more production at tight end. Rookies Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene could still grow into solid pieces, but how long will it take? The Patriots can’t go a third consecutive year devoid of statistical output from the position, and Henry would be the answer.
David, a linebacker who turns 31 in January, has flown under the radar in Tampa but has been reliable and productive on all three downs throughout his career. If the Patriots can get him for $8-9 million annually, they can stick him in the middle of their defense with Dont’a Hightower and let Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings flourish alongside them.
The front seven would enjoy an immediate upgrade with David on the inside.

4. Josh Uche will become the Patriots’ top pass rusher​

This is an easy one.
Uche has made an impact with his increased role over the past month, and his trajectory should have a sharp ascension with a normal offseason. Chase Winovich has had a very good season as the Patriots’ best pass rusher, but Uche’s raw talent will shine once the Patriots remove his training wheels.

5. The Patriots will focus on the second tier of free-agent wide receivers​

It would be a surprise if the Patriots completely abandoned their philosophy on paying receivers just because they’ve got $60 million in projected cap space, the fourth-most in the NFL.
That’s why $14-18 million annually doesn’t add up for JuJu Smith-Schuster, Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay or Will Fuller. Rather, it’d make more sense to try to snare a pair of the next tier that includes Curtis Samuel, Marvin Jones, Sammy Watkins and Corey Davis.
If the Patriots can land two of them, somehow land one of the plethora of talented wideouts in the draft and combine them with Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers, the group would look much better.

6. The Patriots will re-sign Joe Thuney​

The Pats used the $14.8 million franchise tag on Thuney despite being tight against the cap because they hoped to extend him to a long-term contract. The two sides were never close to an extension before the deadline, nor were the Patriots close to trading him due to an absence of acceptable offers. They also weren’t going to just flip him to the highest bidder due to his value to the team, which played out tenfold as he hopped between left guard and center early in the season.
It’d be surprising if they didn’t continue to offer him a competitive contract. There are only 10 teams with at least $30 million in projected cap room, and it’s tough to envision most of them using a major chunk of it on an interior lineman. Maybe Washington or the Bengals makes a huge push, but Thuney would then have to decide between the fattest payday and an environment he knows best and is closer to achieving postseason success.
It’s unconventional for teams to devote so much cap space to guard, as Shaq Mason will carry a $9.775 million cap hit, but the Patriots can pull it off while their tackles are on rookie contracts.

1/2​

 
IDK. Maybe we're overvaluing a 2nd rnd pick for BB a little here.
Seems to me BB does better with 5th & 6th round picks (and udfa) than 2nd round picks.

Who among this group wouldn't you trade for Minshew? ;)
Adrian Klemm
Bethel Johnson
Marquise Hill
Chad Jackson
Terrance Wheatley
Ron Brace
Jermaine Cunningham
Ras-I Dowling
Shane Vereen - although I do appreciate his performance in the Seahawks SB.
Tavon Wilson
Aaron Dobson
Jordan Richards
Cyrus Jones
Duke Dawson
and the jury is still out on Joejuan Williams after moving him from CB to S.
Gronk was a 2nd rounder.
 
It’s hard to argue with the other 14 though.
I am not arguing the other ones. But Chevs went back into the 2 oughts to amke the point. I am having trouble seeing the trades back and out of the 2nd round or even players gotten instead of picking. There were others too. I am not saying there are not some glaring busts there, just that it is a mixed bag.
 
I dunno, Cam is real tall and had more passes rejected this year than Flutie ever saw in his night terrors

Yes, he did and I wasn't trying to compare Minshew and Newton in terms of height. I was simply
pointing out something about Minshew that is notable, but not necessarily important. He
is a few inches shorter than the NFL desired height for a QB, which is one of the main reasons
he has a lot of stickers on his suitcase.

Believe me, I like the guy and think he could be quite a good fit here. He is atypical in a lot of ways,
but I think Bill is well aware of him as an option and has likely already kicked the tires. I don't think
he'd mind having a guy that wanted to play so bad that he went anywhere that would give him a
chance and his resume looks like a relative odyssey compared to most younger guys. Stuff like that matters
a lot to the HC, I think. I don't he is a big fan of silver spoon football players.

It's all going to come down to value in the end and it is plausible that Gardner will be more affordable than most
of the FA names we've been talking about. Granted, that's a shitload of names. Bang for the buck is
what I'm trying to say. This guy has a strong potential to outperform his contract and I can't see that
happening for almost any of the other guys. Quite the opposite in most cases.

A second rounder? Yes, please.
 
lol...NO way for a 2nd. More like, low round (5th or 6th with an option for more if he's legit in NE). But, Minshew is a poor man's Brady. Shaggy will be starting for the Jags right away. He has swagger. I've already mentioned him before as a bridge QB. He would be VERY interesting for the Pats!

He went to the same school as Bledsoe and Leaf. He gives a shit, he wants to win. He's the same height as Brees. With the right team, he actually could be decent. I would NEVER trade a high draft pick for him, but, a low round...with the option for more picks if he hits. That sounds about right.

If he's the guy you want, and if he's a poor man's Brady, then why not a second round pick? Not sure you can put an absolute round on him, anyway, it's depend on what other teams offer the Jags. If you think he's the bridge guy, go for it. Better than drafting a safety or WR with the second round pick IMO.
 
If he's the guy you want, and if he's a poor man's Brady, then why not a second round pick? Not sure you can put an absolute round on him, anyway, it's depend on what other teams offer the Jags. If you think he's the bridge guy, go for it. Better than drafting a safety or WR with the second round pick IMO.
Because he isn't worth it? :coffee:
 
Gronk was a 2nd rounder.

Yes which is why I purposely left him and 4-5 others off that list of busts.
Plus
1. BB would have taken him in the 1st if necessary
2. It wasn't necessary because of Gronk's prior injuries and other teams dropping him for those injuries.

Light, Vollmer, Branch and Chung were all hits in the 2nd, too. But 2015 on hasn't proven to be so good for 2nd rnd picks.
Maybe now that Caserio is gone...
 
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Yes which is why I purposely left him and 4-5 others off that list of busts.
Plus
1. BB would have taken him in the 1st if necessary
2. It wasn't necessary because of Gronk's prior injuries and other teams dropping him for those injuries.

Light, Vollmer, Branch and Chung were all hits in the 2nd, too. But 2015 on hasn't proven to be so good for 2nd rnd picks.
Maybe now that Caserio is gone...
Welker was basically a 2nd round pick too. I can't remember any other trades like that, and it is frustrating recently but is BB really a lot worse than other GMs in drafting in the 2nd.
 
 
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