Rebuilding The Patriots For 2021 And Beyond

Jeff Howe gives his thoughts - the Athletic

My comments:
I'll add Fla. QB Kyle Trask to his list of QBs to draft. 6'5", 240. Drop back pocket presence++ with decent mobility. 2020 stats - 70% completion rate, 4125 yds, 11.6 AY/A, 43 TDs and only 5 ints. BB could trade back to around 20-25 and still get Trask while adding a late 2nd or early 3rd to boot.
WRs - Marvin Jones &/or Corey Davis would be perfect, thank you.
TE - Hunter Henry for sure. He'd help immensely.
Adding a TE & 2 WRs would do wonders for the offense.
LB - Lavonte David has been productive his entire career plus he can cover a back or a TE.
Of our own FAs, I'm not certain JMac will be back, at least not as a CB; maybe at S. I'd like to keep Byrd and James White.




By Jeff Howe Dec 28, 2020
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The best thing about 2020? There’s at least a sliver of hope it’ll turn to 2021.
That’s where the Patriots have set their focus, as the regular season will expire in a week and they can turn their attention toward the next phase of their rebuild.
So let’s do the same and make 10 bold predictions for the upcoming year. Due to the likelihood that many of these predictions won’t be worth the paper they’re printed on, this message will soon self-destruct. No receipts, please.

1. The Patriots will trade up to draft a quarterback and keep* Cam Newton​

Bill Belichick has publicly acknowledged the advantages of building a roster around a quarterback on a rookie contract, and there are four franchise-caliber talents who are projected top-10 picks.
Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence will likely be the No. 1 pick — too rich for the Patriots — and BYU’s Zach Wilson, Ohio State’s Justin Fields and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance will be gone shortly thereafter. It’ll most likely cost the Patriots at least a pair of first-round picks to get into range to select one of them.
That’s a price worth paying if there’s conviction behind their evaluation of the right quarterback, and the pace of their rebuild depends on it.
There’d be some value in keeping Newton on a short-money contract, especially if the Patriots boost the talent at tight end and wide receiver. If the Patriots trade up to draft a quarterback, they’re not going to want to also spend a significant chunk of cap space on a veteran, so keeping Newton would make some sense.
He’s good for the locker room and should be a solid mentor for a rookie. If the draft pick isn’t ready to start early in the season, Newton would be a serviceable placeholder.
(*I changed my mind three times while writing this section, could do so 10 more times depending how Jarrett Stidham is involved in the final two games and might do so hundreds more times prior to free agency.)

2. The Patriots will extend Stephon Gilmore’s contract and place a second-round tender on J.C. Jackson​

Gilmore is still playing at an extremely high level, but he’ll only earn $7.5 million in cash next season because the Patriots have accelerated future earnings to keep him competitively compensated over the past two seasons.
While Gilmore’s name has come up in trade conversations, the Patriots didn’t come close to dealing him because there was never an acceptable offer on the table, according to a source. The presumption is the Patriots wouldn’t move him for less than a first-round pick. Would their price actually come down in the next three months, and how much will the torn quad impact his fate?
Keeping Gilmore would therefore make the most sense. A two-year, $28.5 million extension would be fair value, rolling that into the balance of his current contract for a three-year, $36 million pact.
Jackson is a restricted free agent, and the Patriots would like to accumulate more picks, particularly under the premise that they’re willing to trade into the top 10 for a quarterback. The Patriots’ two options with Jackson would be to give him a first- or second-round tender, but it’s historically rare for an opposing team to sign away a restricted free agent at the cost of a first-round pick.
Therefore, use a second-round tender, and entice a team to sign Jackson to an offer sheet. That’s an affordable price for a corner with a budding reputation around the league, and the Patriots could use the second-round asset while replacing Jackson with Joejuan Williams or Myles Bryant. They could also re-sign Jason McCourty.

3. The Patriots’ two biggest splashes in free agency will be Hunter Henry and Lavonte David​

Henry will be the top tight end on the market, so he’ll require a contract worth an average annual value of at least $10 million. But Henry also probably got the memo this month that Belichick is infatuated with him.
The Patriots desperately need more production at tight end. Rookies Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene could still grow into solid pieces, but how long will it take? The Patriots can’t go a third consecutive year devoid of statistical output from the position, and Henry would be the answer.
David, a linebacker who turns 31 in January, has flown under the radar in Tampa but has been reliable and productive on all three downs throughout his career. If the Patriots can get him for $8-9 million annually, they can stick him in the middle of their defense with Dont’a Hightower and let Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings flourish alongside them.
The front seven would enjoy an immediate upgrade with David on the inside.

4. Josh Uche will become the Patriots’ top pass rusher​

This is an easy one.
Uche has made an impact with his increased role over the past month, and his trajectory should have a sharp ascension with a normal offseason. Chase Winovich has had a very good season as the Patriots’ best pass rusher, but Uche’s raw talent will shine once the Patriots remove his training wheels.

5. The Patriots will focus on the second tier of free-agent wide receivers​

It would be a surprise if the Patriots completely abandoned their philosophy on paying receivers just because they’ve got $60 million in projected cap space, the fourth-most in the NFL.
That’s why $14-18 million annually doesn’t add up for JuJu Smith-Schuster, Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay or Will Fuller. Rather, it’d make more sense to try to snare a pair of the next tier that includes Curtis Samuel, Marvin Jones, Sammy Watkins and Corey Davis.
If the Patriots can land two of them, somehow land one of the plethora of talented wideouts in the draft and combine them with Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers, the group would look much better.

6. The Patriots will re-sign Joe Thuney​

The Pats used the $14.8 million franchise tag on Thuney despite being tight against the cap because they hoped to extend him to a long-term contract. The two sides were never close to an extension before the deadline, nor were the Patriots close to trading him due to an absence of acceptable offers. They also weren’t going to just flip him to the highest bidder due to his value to the team, which played out tenfold as he hopped between left guard and center early in the season.
It’d be surprising if they didn’t continue to offer him a competitive contract. There are only 10 teams with at least $30 million in projected cap room, and it’s tough to envision most of them using a major chunk of it on an interior lineman. Maybe Washington or the Bengals makes a huge push, but Thuney would then have to decide between the fattest payday and an environment he knows best and is closer to achieving postseason success.
It’s unconventional for teams to devote so much cap space to guard, as Shaq Mason will carry a $9.775 million cap hit, but the Patriots can pull it off while their tackles are on rookie contracts.

1/2​

 
Romo is the best analyst around right now. I have to say I do enjoy him immensely. Not only his in-game commentary but his interviews. He did a sit down with Brady prior to the SB and his manner and questioning were superb. I found myself more interested in what he was saying than Tom. LOL. He is worth that contract and then some. I bet he wishes he left football a lot sooner as he is making more money and not getting his back broke.


Romo was a breath of fresh air his first year. He was by far the best analyst, but something happened. Maybe the other commentators told him to tone it down or maybe he got paid handsomely, so he feels he doesn't have to try. He turned annoying, repetitive, biased and overall kinda corny. It's a shame.
 
Agree somewhat with the above. His first year was definitely his best. I don't know if it went to his head or what.

And I do find him more annoying now, but he's still probably better than anyone else on TV.
 
Romo was a breath of fresh air his first year. He was by far the best analyst, but something happened. Maybe the other commentators told him to tone it down or maybe he got paid handsomely, so he feels he doesn't have to try. He turned annoying, repetitive, biased and overall kinda corny. It's a shame.
Exactly...he is SUPER annoying when he babbles on about what he thinks what will happen...and it doesn't happen. :coffee:
 
Romo is the best analyst around right now. I have to say I do enjoy him immensely. Not only his in-game commentary but his interviews. He did a sit down with Brady prior to the SB and his manner and questioning were superb. I found myself more interested in what he was saying than Tom. LOL. He is worth that contract and then some. I bet he wishes he left football a lot sooner as he is making more money and not getting his back broke.

I think that he WAS good, but he was told to shut up and stop complimenting the Patriots.
Since then, he’s been annoying. Not terrible, but annoying.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
 
From the Athletic regarding the big trades and how they affected the Pats ability to move up for their QB.
Good article with sound reasoning.

Price to move up​


The Patriots have been all-in on the quarterback draft class, heavily scouting Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Mac Jones.

Even after re-signing Cam Newton, the Patriots remained committed to exhausting their options at quarterback, either by drafting a top prospect or acquiring a veteran through a trade or free agency. They aren’t done.

The Patriots’ aggressive splurge in free agency was an indication that they were preparing to trade up for a quarterback. Bill Belichick acknowledged last season that it’s advantageous to roster a quarterback on a rookie contract because that gives the team the salary-cap flexibility to load up elsewhere, and they’ve done that by signing players to contracts surpassing $300 million.

But the 49ers-Dolphins trade is going to sting the Patriots’ chances to draft a QB.

In a normal year, it would typically cost the Patriots two first-rounders – No. 15 and a future selection – to move into the top six or seven picks for a quarterback. Due to the impressive QB class and the number of teams in the top half of the first round that need a franchise signal-caller, that price has become significantly amplified. It was previously presumed the Patriots would have to add a second- or third-rounder to the package to move that high up the board.

But three first-rounders and a third- to get from No. 12 to No. 3? That’s a massive haul for the Dolphins that the 49ers paid for the right to draft a quarterback. There won’t be any buyer’s remorse if they land a franchise cornerstone.

It’s presumed Lawrence will go to the Jaguars with the first pick. Wilson is the favorite to go second to the Jets. That likely leaves Lance and Fields for the 49ers.

The Atlanta Falcons, who should be interested in finding Matt Ryan’s successor, now control the most valuable pick in the draft at No. 4. They can take the fourth quarterback or trade the pick to a willing partner.

The Detroit Lions (No. 7), Carolina Panthers (No. 8), Denver Broncos (No. 9) and Patriots (No. 15) should all be calling the Falcons. It’s fair to speculate the Falcons wouldn’t trade with NFC South rival Carolina without a massive overpay, so the Panthers might be the biggest losers Friday.

Whatever the case, the Patriots can’t assume they’ll only have to pay two first-rounders and a third to get to No. 4. The Falcons’ starting price should be three first-round picks. If the Patriots aren’t wholly convinced Lance or Fields is a no-doubt franchise quarterback, they won’t have any interest in that price point.

Related ripple, it seemed like a long shot the Dolphins would take a quarterback at No. 3, and the Bengals aren’t selecting one at No. 5. Prior to the Dolphins-49ers trade, the chance existed for Lance and Fields to fall to Nos. 7 or 8.

Now, any team hell-bent on getting a top-four quarterback absolutely has to swing a deal with the Falcons. Otherwise, that dream is dead.

From there, Jones should probably be viewed as a top-10 pick. He’s a shakier prospect – some teams love him, some won’t view him as a first-round talent. But the teams that are desperate for a quarterback will refocus their attention toward Jones because it just became a whole lot more difficult to draft the other four. Expect someone to trade into the top 10 for him if the Panthers or Broncos don’t already plan to take him.

Possible homecoming​

The 49ers have maintained their commitment to Jimmy Garoppolo throughout the offseason.

For what it’s worth, other teams don’t believe them.

Now, there is some logic behind keeping Garoppolo. Lance and Fields have awesome long-term upside potential, but they’re also raw and would benefit by sitting for a season. The 49ers are still good enough to get into the playoffs, and they shouldn’t want to hurt those chances by diminishing their stability at quarterback.

However, the Patriots have shown interest in acquiring Garoppolo, and other teams believe the 2014 second-rounder is available or at least will become available once the Niners stop bluffing. The 49ers-Dolphins trade will lead to teams continuing to check on Garoppolo’s availability.

How will the Patriots’ strategy change now that it’s going to be exponentially more difficult to trade up in the draft? Will they be willing to offer more for Garoppolo to entice the 49ers to pull the trigger?

They were planning to monitor Garoppolo’s availability either way.

Divisional consequences​

The Dolphins weren’t done dealing Friday. Minutes after finalizing their trade with the 49ers, the Dolphins traded the No. 12 pick, a fourth-rounder and a 2022 first-rounder to the Philadelphia Eagles for the No. 6 pick and a fifth-rounder.

The Dolphins will be in a spot to draft an elite offensive prospect, either tight end Kyle Pitts or wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle or Devonta Smith. This all points to their commitment to quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

After the initial trade, it seemed like the Dolphins could have also been stockpiling enough picks to strengthen their package for Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson. But if that were the case, why would they trade a future first-rounder to move up six spots? This could mean they’re out on Watson, who is also embroiled by allegations of sexual assault lodged in a series of civil lawsuits.

It can also be assumed the 49ers tried to acquire the No. 2 pick from the Jets. By staying put, it is a very strong indication the Jets are taking a quarterback, with Wilson as the perceived favorite.

That also probably means the Jets will field offers for quarterback Sam Darnold, but it feels like a long shot that they’d move him to New England for anything less than a massive overpay.

The Patriots already planned to remain aggressive on the quarterback front this offseason. If their hope was to draft a QB, the Friday trades made that journey far more difficult. If their ideal scenario involved Garoppolo, that door might have cracked open a little wider.
 
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