Rebuilding The Patriots For 2021 And Beyond

Jeff Howe gives his thoughts - the Athletic

My comments:
I'll add Fla. QB Kyle Trask to his list of QBs to draft. 6'5", 240. Drop back pocket presence++ with decent mobility. 2020 stats - 70% completion rate, 4125 yds, 11.6 AY/A, 43 TDs and only 5 ints. BB could trade back to around 20-25 and still get Trask while adding a late 2nd or early 3rd to boot.
WRs - Marvin Jones &/or Corey Davis would be perfect, thank you.
TE - Hunter Henry for sure. He'd help immensely.
Adding a TE & 2 WRs would do wonders for the offense.
LB - Lavonte David has been productive his entire career plus he can cover a back or a TE.
Of our own FAs, I'm not certain JMac will be back, at least not as a CB; maybe at S. I'd like to keep Byrd and James White.




By Jeff Howe Dec 28, 2020
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The best thing about 2020? There’s at least a sliver of hope it’ll turn to 2021.
That’s where the Patriots have set their focus, as the regular season will expire in a week and they can turn their attention toward the next phase of their rebuild.
So let’s do the same and make 10 bold predictions for the upcoming year. Due to the likelihood that many of these predictions won’t be worth the paper they’re printed on, this message will soon self-destruct. No receipts, please.

1. The Patriots will trade up to draft a quarterback and keep* Cam Newton​

Bill Belichick has publicly acknowledged the advantages of building a roster around a quarterback on a rookie contract, and there are four franchise-caliber talents who are projected top-10 picks.
Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence will likely be the No. 1 pick — too rich for the Patriots — and BYU’s Zach Wilson, Ohio State’s Justin Fields and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance will be gone shortly thereafter. It’ll most likely cost the Patriots at least a pair of first-round picks to get into range to select one of them.
That’s a price worth paying if there’s conviction behind their evaluation of the right quarterback, and the pace of their rebuild depends on it.
There’d be some value in keeping Newton on a short-money contract, especially if the Patriots boost the talent at tight end and wide receiver. If the Patriots trade up to draft a quarterback, they’re not going to want to also spend a significant chunk of cap space on a veteran, so keeping Newton would make some sense.
He’s good for the locker room and should be a solid mentor for a rookie. If the draft pick isn’t ready to start early in the season, Newton would be a serviceable placeholder.
(*I changed my mind three times while writing this section, could do so 10 more times depending how Jarrett Stidham is involved in the final two games and might do so hundreds more times prior to free agency.)

2. The Patriots will extend Stephon Gilmore’s contract and place a second-round tender on J.C. Jackson​

Gilmore is still playing at an extremely high level, but he’ll only earn $7.5 million in cash next season because the Patriots have accelerated future earnings to keep him competitively compensated over the past two seasons.
While Gilmore’s name has come up in trade conversations, the Patriots didn’t come close to dealing him because there was never an acceptable offer on the table, according to a source. The presumption is the Patriots wouldn’t move him for less than a first-round pick. Would their price actually come down in the next three months, and how much will the torn quad impact his fate?
Keeping Gilmore would therefore make the most sense. A two-year, $28.5 million extension would be fair value, rolling that into the balance of his current contract for a three-year, $36 million pact.
Jackson is a restricted free agent, and the Patriots would like to accumulate more picks, particularly under the premise that they’re willing to trade into the top 10 for a quarterback. The Patriots’ two options with Jackson would be to give him a first- or second-round tender, but it’s historically rare for an opposing team to sign away a restricted free agent at the cost of a first-round pick.
Therefore, use a second-round tender, and entice a team to sign Jackson to an offer sheet. That’s an affordable price for a corner with a budding reputation around the league, and the Patriots could use the second-round asset while replacing Jackson with Joejuan Williams or Myles Bryant. They could also re-sign Jason McCourty.

3. The Patriots’ two biggest splashes in free agency will be Hunter Henry and Lavonte David​

Henry will be the top tight end on the market, so he’ll require a contract worth an average annual value of at least $10 million. But Henry also probably got the memo this month that Belichick is infatuated with him.
The Patriots desperately need more production at tight end. Rookies Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene could still grow into solid pieces, but how long will it take? The Patriots can’t go a third consecutive year devoid of statistical output from the position, and Henry would be the answer.
David, a linebacker who turns 31 in January, has flown under the radar in Tampa but has been reliable and productive on all three downs throughout his career. If the Patriots can get him for $8-9 million annually, they can stick him in the middle of their defense with Dont’a Hightower and let Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings flourish alongside them.
The front seven would enjoy an immediate upgrade with David on the inside.

4. Josh Uche will become the Patriots’ top pass rusher​

This is an easy one.
Uche has made an impact with his increased role over the past month, and his trajectory should have a sharp ascension with a normal offseason. Chase Winovich has had a very good season as the Patriots’ best pass rusher, but Uche’s raw talent will shine once the Patriots remove his training wheels.

5. The Patriots will focus on the second tier of free-agent wide receivers​

It would be a surprise if the Patriots completely abandoned their philosophy on paying receivers just because they’ve got $60 million in projected cap space, the fourth-most in the NFL.
That’s why $14-18 million annually doesn’t add up for JuJu Smith-Schuster, Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay or Will Fuller. Rather, it’d make more sense to try to snare a pair of the next tier that includes Curtis Samuel, Marvin Jones, Sammy Watkins and Corey Davis.
If the Patriots can land two of them, somehow land one of the plethora of talented wideouts in the draft and combine them with Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers, the group would look much better.

6. The Patriots will re-sign Joe Thuney​

The Pats used the $14.8 million franchise tag on Thuney despite being tight against the cap because they hoped to extend him to a long-term contract. The two sides were never close to an extension before the deadline, nor were the Patriots close to trading him due to an absence of acceptable offers. They also weren’t going to just flip him to the highest bidder due to his value to the team, which played out tenfold as he hopped between left guard and center early in the season.
It’d be surprising if they didn’t continue to offer him a competitive contract. There are only 10 teams with at least $30 million in projected cap room, and it’s tough to envision most of them using a major chunk of it on an interior lineman. Maybe Washington or the Bengals makes a huge push, but Thuney would then have to decide between the fattest payday and an environment he knows best and is closer to achieving postseason success.
It’s unconventional for teams to devote so much cap space to guard, as Shaq Mason will carry a $9.775 million cap hit, but the Patriots can pull it off while their tackles are on rookie contracts.

1/2​

 
Players want to be traded to teams that are ready to compete regardless of the coach. He can go join Sean Payton in NO with a stacked roster and a great coach. I would think that would be much more attractive to him.

But again I would LOVE for Bill to try to get him. He is worth the boat load of picks.
1. It will never happen.

2. No, he isn't worth trading for.

3. Look at #1 again.
 
BB will have to find his next QB via the draft...and find a decent bridge QB (Scam isn't decent) for the in between.
 
A franchise QB is hard to acquire. I'd trade 2 1st rnds for him + Gilmore but only IF Watson's elbow doesn't need Tommy John or Roethlisberger elbow surgery. I'd also entertain signing Dak Prescott
i am not sure what the term "franchise qb" means to you so i can't comment on that part other than to say i think a solid qb who is clutch but not top 5 is good enough for me. i like dak if his price isn't ridic. he's like the "stripped down" version of a luxury car. performs almost as well as the $$$$ model, not as many bells and whistles. only ?s to me will be the $/injury recovery.
 
i am not sure what the term "franchise qb" means to you so i can't comment on that part other than to say i think a solid qb who is clutch but not top 5 is good enough for me. i like dak if his price isn't ridic. he's like the "stripped down" version of a luxury car. performs almost as well as the $$$$ model, not as many bells and whistles. only ?s to me will be the $/injury recovery.
I don't even like Dak, but, he will want max money...that in itself is anti BB.
 
So......now it isn't impossible, eh? Mmmm-Hmmmmm.

First, Watson's accuracy and play-making ability is just as good as Russell, Rodgers and maybe even Mahomes, the difference being that his skill players weren't as good. Last Sunday I saw him roll left, plant and fire across his body with a guy right in his face. He threw a rope dime to a guy tightly covered and pulled off a first down. It was amazing. That is as good as it gets and the guy is still getting better and he's pissed at his organization. Clearly. He's the absolute number one attainable QB out there, is still young and an amazing person and leader. Guys like him are NEVER available, but it ain't impossible.

Second, if you are looking to totally rebuild your roster and are in position to get a talented rookie QB, then you have to look at the cap savings from working a deal for your vet QB no matter how good he is. Pure economics. They don't have a first or second pick, but I'd give them both, and throw in Gilmore and Thuney for DeShaun. To hell with the compensatory picks.

It is probably unlikely, but not impossible. Imagine the shock waves generated if we were able to pull a deal off for him. If you're one of us, you have to at least consider it if only for amusement purposes. I'd give him a max contract without hesitation and there'll be plenty left to add a few puzzle pieces for him. He knows how good Bill is from repeat personal experience. He knows that this year was a pure aberration. He's tired of the Houston Klown Kollege and knows that signing a deal with us puts a ring within his reach.

Besides, it isn't our money. Plausible speculation don't hurt anybody.
 
Watson would be awesome. He doesn’t throw much to RBs, or Tight ends. Someone would have to adjust either the coaches, or Watson if he came here.

The Jets actually have a bunch of picks. If they get competent management they could improve very quickly. I don’t think the talent on that team is as bad as their record.
 
So......now it isn't impossible, eh? Mmmm-Hmmmmm.

First, Watson's accuracy and play-making ability is just as good as Russell, Rodgers and maybe even Mahomes, the difference being that his skill players weren't as good. Last Sunday I saw him roll left, plant and fire across his body with a guy right in his face. He threw a rope dime to a guy tightly covered and pulled off a first down. It was amazing. That is as good as it gets and the guy is still getting better and he's pissed at his organization. Clearly. He's the absolute number one attainable QB out there, is still young and an amazing person and leader. Guys like him are NEVER available, but it ain't impossible.

Second, if you are looking to totally rebuild your roster and are in position to get a talented rookie QB, then you have to look at the cap savings from working a deal for your vet QB no matter how good he is. Pure economics. They don't have a first or second pick, but I'd give them both, and throw in Gilmore and Thuney for DeShaun. To hell with the compensatory picks.

It is probably unlikely, but not impossible. Imagine the shock waves generated if we were able to pull a deal off for him. If you're one of us, you have to at least consider it if only for amusement purposes. I'd give him a max contract without hesitation and there'll be plenty left to add a few puzzle pieces for him. He knows how good Bill is from repeat personal experience. He knows that this year was a pure aberration. He's tired of the Houston Klown Kollege and knows that signing a deal with us puts a ring within his reach.

Besides, it isn't our money. Plausible speculation don't hurt anybody.

Finally someone agrees with me about Watson. I don't want to be another Denver or Buffalo or the NYJ going through QB after QB and waiting years and years to find one.
Under BB the Pats won't do badly enough to get a top 5 draft pick. I'm all for it and I'd pursue it doggedly. But I'm also realistic and the chances of it happening are slim but he's plan A for now. Plan B could be Dak - screw Jerrah. Everyone here assumes Dak wanted too much money but that wasn't it. He wanted a short contract so he could become a FA again in his prime. Jerrah wanted a long term deal. He and Jerrah couldn't reach agreement bc of years and not bc of money.
 
Finally someone agrees with me about Watson. I don't want to be another Denver or Buffalo or the NYJ going through QB after QB and waiting years and years to find one.
Under BB the Pats won't do badly enough to get a top 5 draft pick. I'm all for it and I'd pursue it doggedly. But I'm also realistic and the chances of it happening are slim but he's plan A for now. Plan B could be Dak - screw Jerrah. Everyone here assumes Dak wanted too much money but that wasn't it. He wanted a short contract so he could become a FA again in his prime. Jerrah wanted a long term deal. He and Jerrah couldn't reach agreement bc of years and not bc of money.

Me and you, Chevs, shoulder-to-shoulder and backs to the wall.......

I'd be happy to end up with Dak, but I'd be 100% thrilled to get Watson and about 85% with Prescott. I'd have my doubts about him.

I tend to go by what my eyes tell me as opposed to analytics and I've seen Dak take the pickle a few too many times in the clutch to fully trust his judgement. For a good part of his career he's had an outstanding OL, Zeke in the backfield and good to excellent receivers. That is a prime scenario for success and the 'Boys haven't gotten it done in the postseason. Coaching? Special Teams? Jerrah interfering? Bad D? There is always a saddlebag filled with excuses in Dallas.

Still, that kid would be a far cry from what we endured this year and he might love playing for a disciplined team for a change.
 
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