Rebuilding The Patriots For 2021 And Beyond

Jeff Howe gives his thoughts - the Athletic

My comments:
I'll add Fla. QB Kyle Trask to his list of QBs to draft. 6'5", 240. Drop back pocket presence++ with decent mobility. 2020 stats - 70% completion rate, 4125 yds, 11.6 AY/A, 43 TDs and only 5 ints. BB could trade back to around 20-25 and still get Trask while adding a late 2nd or early 3rd to boot.
WRs - Marvin Jones &/or Corey Davis would be perfect, thank you.
TE - Hunter Henry for sure. He'd help immensely.
Adding a TE & 2 WRs would do wonders for the offense.
LB - Lavonte David has been productive his entire career plus he can cover a back or a TE.
Of our own FAs, I'm not certain JMac will be back, at least not as a CB; maybe at S. I'd like to keep Byrd and James White.




By Jeff Howe Dec 28, 2020
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The best thing about 2020? There’s at least a sliver of hope it’ll turn to 2021.
That’s where the Patriots have set their focus, as the regular season will expire in a week and they can turn their attention toward the next phase of their rebuild.
So let’s do the same and make 10 bold predictions for the upcoming year. Due to the likelihood that many of these predictions won’t be worth the paper they’re printed on, this message will soon self-destruct. No receipts, please.

1. The Patriots will trade up to draft a quarterback and keep* Cam Newton​

Bill Belichick has publicly acknowledged the advantages of building a roster around a quarterback on a rookie contract, and there are four franchise-caliber talents who are projected top-10 picks.
Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence will likely be the No. 1 pick — too rich for the Patriots — and BYU’s Zach Wilson, Ohio State’s Justin Fields and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance will be gone shortly thereafter. It’ll most likely cost the Patriots at least a pair of first-round picks to get into range to select one of them.
That’s a price worth paying if there’s conviction behind their evaluation of the right quarterback, and the pace of their rebuild depends on it.
There’d be some value in keeping Newton on a short-money contract, especially if the Patriots boost the talent at tight end and wide receiver. If the Patriots trade up to draft a quarterback, they’re not going to want to also spend a significant chunk of cap space on a veteran, so keeping Newton would make some sense.
He’s good for the locker room and should be a solid mentor for a rookie. If the draft pick isn’t ready to start early in the season, Newton would be a serviceable placeholder.
(*I changed my mind three times while writing this section, could do so 10 more times depending how Jarrett Stidham is involved in the final two games and might do so hundreds more times prior to free agency.)

2. The Patriots will extend Stephon Gilmore’s contract and place a second-round tender on J.C. Jackson​

Gilmore is still playing at an extremely high level, but he’ll only earn $7.5 million in cash next season because the Patriots have accelerated future earnings to keep him competitively compensated over the past two seasons.
While Gilmore’s name has come up in trade conversations, the Patriots didn’t come close to dealing him because there was never an acceptable offer on the table, according to a source. The presumption is the Patriots wouldn’t move him for less than a first-round pick. Would their price actually come down in the next three months, and how much will the torn quad impact his fate?
Keeping Gilmore would therefore make the most sense. A two-year, $28.5 million extension would be fair value, rolling that into the balance of his current contract for a three-year, $36 million pact.
Jackson is a restricted free agent, and the Patriots would like to accumulate more picks, particularly under the premise that they’re willing to trade into the top 10 for a quarterback. The Patriots’ two options with Jackson would be to give him a first- or second-round tender, but it’s historically rare for an opposing team to sign away a restricted free agent at the cost of a first-round pick.
Therefore, use a second-round tender, and entice a team to sign Jackson to an offer sheet. That’s an affordable price for a corner with a budding reputation around the league, and the Patriots could use the second-round asset while replacing Jackson with Joejuan Williams or Myles Bryant. They could also re-sign Jason McCourty.

3. The Patriots’ two biggest splashes in free agency will be Hunter Henry and Lavonte David​

Henry will be the top tight end on the market, so he’ll require a contract worth an average annual value of at least $10 million. But Henry also probably got the memo this month that Belichick is infatuated with him.
The Patriots desperately need more production at tight end. Rookies Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene could still grow into solid pieces, but how long will it take? The Patriots can’t go a third consecutive year devoid of statistical output from the position, and Henry would be the answer.
David, a linebacker who turns 31 in January, has flown under the radar in Tampa but has been reliable and productive on all three downs throughout his career. If the Patriots can get him for $8-9 million annually, they can stick him in the middle of their defense with Dont’a Hightower and let Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings flourish alongside them.
The front seven would enjoy an immediate upgrade with David on the inside.

4. Josh Uche will become the Patriots’ top pass rusher​

This is an easy one.
Uche has made an impact with his increased role over the past month, and his trajectory should have a sharp ascension with a normal offseason. Chase Winovich has had a very good season as the Patriots’ best pass rusher, but Uche’s raw talent will shine once the Patriots remove his training wheels.

5. The Patriots will focus on the second tier of free-agent wide receivers​

It would be a surprise if the Patriots completely abandoned their philosophy on paying receivers just because they’ve got $60 million in projected cap space, the fourth-most in the NFL.
That’s why $14-18 million annually doesn’t add up for JuJu Smith-Schuster, Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay or Will Fuller. Rather, it’d make more sense to try to snare a pair of the next tier that includes Curtis Samuel, Marvin Jones, Sammy Watkins and Corey Davis.
If the Patriots can land two of them, somehow land one of the plethora of talented wideouts in the draft and combine them with Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers, the group would look much better.

6. The Patriots will re-sign Joe Thuney​

The Pats used the $14.8 million franchise tag on Thuney despite being tight against the cap because they hoped to extend him to a long-term contract. The two sides were never close to an extension before the deadline, nor were the Patriots close to trading him due to an absence of acceptable offers. They also weren’t going to just flip him to the highest bidder due to his value to the team, which played out tenfold as he hopped between left guard and center early in the season.
It’d be surprising if they didn’t continue to offer him a competitive contract. There are only 10 teams with at least $30 million in projected cap room, and it’s tough to envision most of them using a major chunk of it on an interior lineman. Maybe Washington or the Bengals makes a huge push, but Thuney would then have to decide between the fattest payday and an environment he knows best and is closer to achieving postseason success.
It’s unconventional for teams to devote so much cap space to guard, as Shaq Mason will carry a $9.775 million cap hit, but the Patriots can pull it off while their tackles are on rookie contracts.

1/2​

 

So you're saying that Brady reading the defense and changing things at the line equates to him being a chameleon and changing to fit the game plan?
I don't see it that way at all. Brady didn't change.
Brady would have to be able to read the D and change a play regardless of the game plan. That's part of what made him the GOAT.
From my view, the coaches devised the game plan to hide our weaknesses and to take advantage of the other team's weaknesses and Brady followed the script.


Everybody wants to blame Cam for our lousy season but this year was about far far more than Cam's presence and Brady's absence.
Actually, Cam's O did as well as Brady's O in 2019 for the Pats. Before you go off & say something you shouldn't, you should read and learn from the article below. Stats included.

From the Athletic
Even though many want to blame Cam and the offense for our bad season, it was the defense that caused us to have a 7-9 season.

A predictable narrative took hold as the defeats piled up for the 7-9 New England Patriots this season: The team simply wasn’t the same without quarterback Tom Brady. How could it be? The narrative was undeniably true in important ways. Passing frequency plummeted without Brady. Quarterback runs proliferated with Cam Newton in his place. An offense that already wasn’t pretty by New England standards in Brady’s final season with the team became downright ugly with almost zero panache in the passing game.

But in assessing raw output without regard for playing style,s the Patriots got about as much production from their 2020 offense as they got from the 2019 version. While conventional stats can capture this decently — both offenses averaged about 1.9 points per drive, for example — the expected points added (EPA) metric is especially well suited for measuring total output regardless of form. By that measure, New England’s offense was among the five stablest offensive or defensive units in the league, year over year.
The Patriots’ defense was actually the NFL unit whose production regressed the most from 2019. No other offensive or defensive unit came close to changing as much. This aspect of New England’s decline from 12-4 to 7-9 was easy to overlook with so much focus naturally on Brady’s absence.

Below we run through the offensive and defensive units that experienced the largest EPA changes year over year. First, a big congratulations to the Washington Football Team, Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Rams, Arizona Cardinals, New York Giants and New Orleans Saints. These were the only teams whose defenses experienced EPA improvements from 2019 as crowd noise became a non-factor for road offenses. The offensive scoring gap that had always separated home teams from road teams disappeared in 2020 as stadiums fell silent. That is why you’ll see defensive teams dominate the “largest declines” category, with offenses dominating the “largest gains” section.

Five Largest EPA Declines, 2019 to 2020

1Patriots Defense+220.6-73.0-293.6
2Vikings Defense+51.7-114.8-166.5
3Titans Defense+32.7-130.8-163.5
4Jets Defense+57.4-90.7-148.1
5Bills Defense+98.3-41.1-139.4

1. New England Patriots defense

The Patriots’ 2019 defense ranks No. 1 in EPA out of 670 defenses since 2000, ahead of the 2000 and 2003 Baltimore Ravens. There was nowhere to go but down from such heights, and that is exactly where New England headed defensively, helped along by multiple factors.

The 2019 Patriots faced the NFL’s easiest schedule of opposing quarterbacks. Their schedule appeared tougher heading into 2020 with games against Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson. Derek Carr was playing well when the Patriots faced him. Josh Allen’s emergence as a high-producing quarterback within the AFC East contributed. Losing linebacker Dont’a Hightower and safety Patrick Chung to COVID-19 opt-outs hurt. New England allowed 22 touchdown passes this season after allowing only 13 the year before. The Patriots collected seven fewer interceptions and allowed an additional 1.5 yards per pass attempt.

The Patriots actually improved in offensive EPA from last season while their scoring average plummeted from 23.1 offensive points per game to 18.6. That would seem to be impossible on the surface, but the team’s unusually dominant defensive performance last season set up the offense in easier scoring situations. EPA measures production in relation to expectation. Teams taking over possession with shorter fields should score more. The 2019 Patriots did just that. The 2020 team collected 14 fewer turnovers than the 2019 version. Its average starting field position was worse by 4.2 yards per drive. The 2020 team’s average drives were longer by about one-half play and by 17 seconds on average. New England had 157 offensive possessions, down from 190 last season.


The Patriots missed Tom Brady, but their biggest decline was on defense


The Patriots' defense, the Titans' defense and the Bills' offense are among the units with the biggest year over year changes in 2020.

theathletic.com
theathletic.com
 
Watson has indicated that he would want to be traded Miami. The Fins have the Texans top pick from the Tunsil trade.

 
Watson has indicated that he would want to be traded Miami. The Fins have the Texans top pick from the Tunsil trade.


That's pure speculation by Mortensen. BS just like his report on the # of deflated balls.
 
That's pure speculation by Mortensen. BS just like his report on the # of deflated balls.
Maybe. Everything is speculation right now. But it makes sense given the picks involved. Although I highly doubt the Fins give Tua to Houston but then again if they really want Watson, they might.
 
Eliot Wolf will replace Caserio...

Maybe. Eliot Wolf was brought in as a consultant before the 2020 draft to be a fresh voice and mind in discussions regarding players in the draft.
Maybe he and Caserio were at odds a few times. Idk but it's a question I'll ask some folks.
 
Maybe. Eliot Wolf was brought in as a consultant before the 2020 draft to be a fresh voice and mind in discussions regarding players in the draft.
Maybe he and Caserio were at odds a few times. Idk but it's a question I'll ask some folks.
Wolf was a hot name a few years ago. Is he the son of Ron Wolf?
 
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