Rebuilding The Patriots For 2021 And Beyond

Jeff Howe gives his thoughts - the Athletic

My comments:
I'll add Fla. QB Kyle Trask to his list of QBs to draft. 6'5", 240. Drop back pocket presence++ with decent mobility. 2020 stats - 70% completion rate, 4125 yds, 11.6 AY/A, 43 TDs and only 5 ints. BB could trade back to around 20-25 and still get Trask while adding a late 2nd or early 3rd to boot.
WRs - Marvin Jones &/or Corey Davis would be perfect, thank you.
TE - Hunter Henry for sure. He'd help immensely.
Adding a TE & 2 WRs would do wonders for the offense.
LB - Lavonte David has been productive his entire career plus he can cover a back or a TE.
Of our own FAs, I'm not certain JMac will be back, at least not as a CB; maybe at S. I'd like to keep Byrd and James White.




By Jeff Howe Dec 28, 2020
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The best thing about 2020? There’s at least a sliver of hope it’ll turn to 2021.
That’s where the Patriots have set their focus, as the regular season will expire in a week and they can turn their attention toward the next phase of their rebuild.
So let’s do the same and make 10 bold predictions for the upcoming year. Due to the likelihood that many of these predictions won’t be worth the paper they’re printed on, this message will soon self-destruct. No receipts, please.

1. The Patriots will trade up to draft a quarterback and keep* Cam Newton​

Bill Belichick has publicly acknowledged the advantages of building a roster around a quarterback on a rookie contract, and there are four franchise-caliber talents who are projected top-10 picks.
Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence will likely be the No. 1 pick — too rich for the Patriots — and BYU’s Zach Wilson, Ohio State’s Justin Fields and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance will be gone shortly thereafter. It’ll most likely cost the Patriots at least a pair of first-round picks to get into range to select one of them.
That’s a price worth paying if there’s conviction behind their evaluation of the right quarterback, and the pace of their rebuild depends on it.
There’d be some value in keeping Newton on a short-money contract, especially if the Patriots boost the talent at tight end and wide receiver. If the Patriots trade up to draft a quarterback, they’re not going to want to also spend a significant chunk of cap space on a veteran, so keeping Newton would make some sense.
He’s good for the locker room and should be a solid mentor for a rookie. If the draft pick isn’t ready to start early in the season, Newton would be a serviceable placeholder.
(*I changed my mind three times while writing this section, could do so 10 more times depending how Jarrett Stidham is involved in the final two games and might do so hundreds more times prior to free agency.)

2. The Patriots will extend Stephon Gilmore’s contract and place a second-round tender on J.C. Jackson​

Gilmore is still playing at an extremely high level, but he’ll only earn $7.5 million in cash next season because the Patriots have accelerated future earnings to keep him competitively compensated over the past two seasons.
While Gilmore’s name has come up in trade conversations, the Patriots didn’t come close to dealing him because there was never an acceptable offer on the table, according to a source. The presumption is the Patriots wouldn’t move him for less than a first-round pick. Would their price actually come down in the next three months, and how much will the torn quad impact his fate?
Keeping Gilmore would therefore make the most sense. A two-year, $28.5 million extension would be fair value, rolling that into the balance of his current contract for a three-year, $36 million pact.
Jackson is a restricted free agent, and the Patriots would like to accumulate more picks, particularly under the premise that they’re willing to trade into the top 10 for a quarterback. The Patriots’ two options with Jackson would be to give him a first- or second-round tender, but it’s historically rare for an opposing team to sign away a restricted free agent at the cost of a first-round pick.
Therefore, use a second-round tender, and entice a team to sign Jackson to an offer sheet. That’s an affordable price for a corner with a budding reputation around the league, and the Patriots could use the second-round asset while replacing Jackson with Joejuan Williams or Myles Bryant. They could also re-sign Jason McCourty.

3. The Patriots’ two biggest splashes in free agency will be Hunter Henry and Lavonte David​

Henry will be the top tight end on the market, so he’ll require a contract worth an average annual value of at least $10 million. But Henry also probably got the memo this month that Belichick is infatuated with him.
The Patriots desperately need more production at tight end. Rookies Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene could still grow into solid pieces, but how long will it take? The Patriots can’t go a third consecutive year devoid of statistical output from the position, and Henry would be the answer.
David, a linebacker who turns 31 in January, has flown under the radar in Tampa but has been reliable and productive on all three downs throughout his career. If the Patriots can get him for $8-9 million annually, they can stick him in the middle of their defense with Dont’a Hightower and let Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings flourish alongside them.
The front seven would enjoy an immediate upgrade with David on the inside.

4. Josh Uche will become the Patriots’ top pass rusher​

This is an easy one.
Uche has made an impact with his increased role over the past month, and his trajectory should have a sharp ascension with a normal offseason. Chase Winovich has had a very good season as the Patriots’ best pass rusher, but Uche’s raw talent will shine once the Patriots remove his training wheels.

5. The Patriots will focus on the second tier of free-agent wide receivers​

It would be a surprise if the Patriots completely abandoned their philosophy on paying receivers just because they’ve got $60 million in projected cap space, the fourth-most in the NFL.
That’s why $14-18 million annually doesn’t add up for JuJu Smith-Schuster, Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay or Will Fuller. Rather, it’d make more sense to try to snare a pair of the next tier that includes Curtis Samuel, Marvin Jones, Sammy Watkins and Corey Davis.
If the Patriots can land two of them, somehow land one of the plethora of talented wideouts in the draft and combine them with Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers, the group would look much better.

6. The Patriots will re-sign Joe Thuney​

The Pats used the $14.8 million franchise tag on Thuney despite being tight against the cap because they hoped to extend him to a long-term contract. The two sides were never close to an extension before the deadline, nor were the Patriots close to trading him due to an absence of acceptable offers. They also weren’t going to just flip him to the highest bidder due to his value to the team, which played out tenfold as he hopped between left guard and center early in the season.
It’d be surprising if they didn’t continue to offer him a competitive contract. There are only 10 teams with at least $30 million in projected cap room, and it’s tough to envision most of them using a major chunk of it on an interior lineman. Maybe Washington or the Bengals makes a huge push, but Thuney would then have to decide between the fattest payday and an environment he knows best and is closer to achieving postseason success.
It’s unconventional for teams to devote so much cap space to guard, as Shaq Mason will carry a $9.775 million cap hit, but the Patriots can pull it off while their tackles are on rookie contracts.

1/2​

 
PFF ranks its best FAs and tells where they think they will sign.

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

After one of the most volatile careers in recent history, Fitzpatrick has played the best football of his career since 2018 as he’s posted three of his four best PFF grades. His aggressiveness allows playmakers to create chunk plays down the field, but it also allows the defense to make just as many plays on the ball. Still, that style works well with the right supporting cast, and Fitzpatrick has actually done a fine job of maximizing his group of playmakers and subpar offensive line in Miami.

Contract Analysis: The Fitzmagic rolls on for another season, as the journeyman QB seems to age like a rich Bordeaux. Miami made it clear this past offseason that retaining Fitzpatrick was a priority, even with clear plans to draft Tua Tagovailoa. The 38-year-old had an $8 million base salary for 2020 with no other compensation left on his deal, and teams were reportedly sending trade offers. Miami’s decision to keep one of the great “bridge” quarterbacks around has been a win-win for both parties, and there will be several suitors for Fitzpatrick’s services again in 2021.

Prediction: Patriots sign Ryan Fitzpatrick for one-year, $10 million ($10 million APY): $10M total guaranteed/fully guaranteed at signing.
 
I wager that Cam will be in TC this off season. He's the best reasonable option at this point. Sure, he had a bad year and single-handedly lost us 3 games, 2 within the 5 yard line as time was expiring, but consider:

1. He missed most of TC.
2. Players lost because of COVID-19.
3. Games moved due to COVID-19.
4. He had COVID-19.
5. No weapons at all.

I read above how difficult it was for him to have to work in Brady's offense. He obviously did a better job than Stidham, who was highly praised by BB all off season. The Pats spent half the off season working with Stidham in the offense before Cam came in and apparently didn't change it.

I'm not saying Cam will be the starter on opening day, but he is a recent MVP and SB QB, will come cheap, will want to prove he deserves another big contract, is a great teammate, mentor and leader, and will operate in the new non-Brady offense. He'll get a chance to compete with whoever is at the QB possition and will be given the customary veteran's release if if he's not in the plan.
 
I wager that Cam will be in TC this off season. He's the best reasonable option at this point. Sure, he had a bad year and single-handedly lost us 3 games, 2 within the 5 yard line as time was expiring, but consider:

1. He missed most of TC.
2. Players lost because of COVID-19.
3. Games moved due to COVID-19.
4. He had COVID-19.
5. No weapons at all.

I read above how difficult it was for him to have to work in Brady's offense. He obviously did a better job than Stidham, who was highly praised by BB all off season. The Pats spent half the off season working with Stidham in the offense before Cam came in and apparently didn't change it.

I'm not saying Cam will be the starter on opening day, but he is a recent MVP and SB QB, will come cheap, will want to prove he deserves another big contract, is a great teammate, mentor and leader, and will operate in the new non-Brady offense. He'll get a chance to compete with whoever is at the QB possition and will be given the customary veteran's release if if he's not in the plan.
What makes you think the Patriots will move away from the Brady offense?
 
I wager that Cam will be in TC this off season. He's the best reasonable option at this point. Sure, he had a bad year and single-handedly lost us 3 games, 2 within the 5 yard line as time was expiring, but consider:

1. He missed most of TC.
2. Players lost because of COVID-19.
3. Games moved due to COVID-19.
4. He had COVID-19.
5. No weapons at all.

I read above how difficult it was for him to have to work in Brady's offense. He obviously did a better job than Stidham, who was highly praised by BB all off season. The Pats spent half the off season working with Stidham in the offense before Cam came in and apparently didn't change it.

I'm not saying Cam will be the starter on opening day, but he is a recent MVP and SB QB, will come cheap, will want to prove he deserves another big contract, is a great teammate, mentor and leader, and will operate in the new non-Brady offense. He'll get a chance to compete with whoever is at the QB possition and will be given the customary veteran's release if if he's not in the plan.

While all of that is true, there's also the option he reunites with his old HC Rivera in Washington. I feel that's a better landing spot for him. That said, if he wants to come back and BB wants him back, I'm sure they can come to an agreement.
 
While all of that is true, there's also the option he reunites with his old HC Rivera in Washington. I feel that's a better landing spot for him. That said, if he wants to come back and BB wants him back, I'm sure they can come to an agreement.
If Bill brings Cams back as the starter, he will have officially lost it as a GM.
 
Not really.
Do you really believe that? That was the worst QBing we have ever seen on the Patriots in the Bill era. You have to go back to before Parcells/Bledsoe to find that type of output. Scoring was the highest ever in the league this year due to Covid and we had an offense that was early 90s.
 
Do you really believe that? That was the worst QBing we have ever seen on the Patriots in the Bill era. You have to go back to before Parcells/Bledsoe to find that type of output. Scoring was the highest ever in the league this year due to Covid and we had an offense that was early 90s.


Read bmooney's post. He had a 7-8 record with virtually no offensive weapons, no TC, very little time for reps, a complex offense etc etc. In hindsight it's not the worst QBing ever in the history of the world as you make it seem. It definitely wasn't pretty. But some things go the other way and Pats could have won 10 games this year as crazy as it sounds. If Cam can get somewhat comfortable with the offense he won't be as deer in the headlights as he was most of this year.
 
Read bmooney's post. He had a 7-8 record with virtually no offensive weapons, no TC, very little time for reps, a complex offense etc etc. In hindsight it's not the worst QBing ever in the history of the world as you make it seem. It definitely wasn't pretty. But some things go the other way and Pats could have won 10 games this year as crazy as it sounds. If Cam can get somewhat comfortable with the offense he won't be as deer in the headlights as he was most of this year.
weapons or not Cam is done. I cant see him playing any where next year unless the is a major run on injuries
 
Read bmooney's post. He had a 7-8 record with virtually no offensive weapons, no TC, very little time for reps, a complex offense etc etc. In hindsight it's not the worst QBing ever in the history of the world as you make it seem. It definitely wasn't pretty. But some things go the other way and Pats could have won 10 games this year as crazy as it sounds. If Cam can get somewhat comfortable with the offense he won't be as deer in the headlights as he was most of this year.
When you watched him play, do you feel like he could throw? His passes were some of the worst I have ever seen. Could not throw short, or deep. He made terrible decisions too. I loved him in the red zone when he ran which is why I would like him in a Taysom Hill role. But he is done as a starter IMO. I would be devastated if Bill brought him back as the starter.
 
When you watched him play, do you feel like he could throw? His passes were some of the worst I have ever seen. Could not throw short, or deep. He made terrible decisions too. I loved him in the red zone when he ran which is why I would like him in a Taysom Hill role. But he is done as a starter IMO. I would be devastated if Bill brought him back as the starter.

I'm not vouching for Cam to come back. I just think it's not completely out of this world for him to come back. Obviously he would not be the long term answer; he would be a bridge QB. The idea is to have a QB while the rookie QB is groomed. It doesn't have to be Cam. It could be Fitzpatrick or Brisett. Point is, if BB were to draft a QB, I don't think he would just throw them to the wolves right away.
 
I'm not vouching for Cam to come back. I just think it's not completely out of this world for him to come back. Obviously he would not be the long term answer; he would be a bridge QB. The idea is to have a QB while the rookie QB is groomed. It doesn't have to be Cam. It could be Fitzpatrick or Brisett. Point is, if BB were to draft a QB, I don't think he would just throw them to the wolves right away.
I agree. I think it is 50/50 that Bill brings him back for exactly the reasons you have stated. That is why I said if he does, I believe he will have lost it as a GM. I do hope he drafts a QB high.
 
I agree. I think it is 50/50 that Bill brings him back for exactly the reasons you have stated. That is why I said if he does, I believe he will have lost it as a GM. I do hope he drafts a QB high.


Other than Dak, which is not even close to being a sure thing, there aren't many realistic options at QB. Well, other than drafting and grooming a QB through the draft. That is precisely why I wouldn't be shocked to see Cam come back for another year. After having him for a season, BB knows more or less what to expect from Cam and build around that for the time being. It's easier to focus on what you know than to focus on other unknown variables.
 
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