Rebuilding The Patriots For 2021 And Beyond

Jeff Howe gives his thoughts - the Athletic

My comments:
I'll add Fla. QB Kyle Trask to his list of QBs to draft. 6'5", 240. Drop back pocket presence++ with decent mobility. 2020 stats - 70% completion rate, 4125 yds, 11.6 AY/A, 43 TDs and only 5 ints. BB could trade back to around 20-25 and still get Trask while adding a late 2nd or early 3rd to boot.
WRs - Marvin Jones &/or Corey Davis would be perfect, thank you.
TE - Hunter Henry for sure. He'd help immensely.
Adding a TE & 2 WRs would do wonders for the offense.
LB - Lavonte David has been productive his entire career plus he can cover a back or a TE.
Of our own FAs, I'm not certain JMac will be back, at least not as a CB; maybe at S. I'd like to keep Byrd and James White.




By Jeff Howe Dec 28, 2020
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The best thing about 2020? There’s at least a sliver of hope it’ll turn to 2021.
That’s where the Patriots have set their focus, as the regular season will expire in a week and they can turn their attention toward the next phase of their rebuild.
So let’s do the same and make 10 bold predictions for the upcoming year. Due to the likelihood that many of these predictions won’t be worth the paper they’re printed on, this message will soon self-destruct. No receipts, please.

1. The Patriots will trade up to draft a quarterback and keep* Cam Newton​

Bill Belichick has publicly acknowledged the advantages of building a roster around a quarterback on a rookie contract, and there are four franchise-caliber talents who are projected top-10 picks.
Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence will likely be the No. 1 pick — too rich for the Patriots — and BYU’s Zach Wilson, Ohio State’s Justin Fields and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance will be gone shortly thereafter. It’ll most likely cost the Patriots at least a pair of first-round picks to get into range to select one of them.
That’s a price worth paying if there’s conviction behind their evaluation of the right quarterback, and the pace of their rebuild depends on it.
There’d be some value in keeping Newton on a short-money contract, especially if the Patriots boost the talent at tight end and wide receiver. If the Patriots trade up to draft a quarterback, they’re not going to want to also spend a significant chunk of cap space on a veteran, so keeping Newton would make some sense.
He’s good for the locker room and should be a solid mentor for a rookie. If the draft pick isn’t ready to start early in the season, Newton would be a serviceable placeholder.
(*I changed my mind three times while writing this section, could do so 10 more times depending how Jarrett Stidham is involved in the final two games and might do so hundreds more times prior to free agency.)

2. The Patriots will extend Stephon Gilmore’s contract and place a second-round tender on J.C. Jackson​

Gilmore is still playing at an extremely high level, but he’ll only earn $7.5 million in cash next season because the Patriots have accelerated future earnings to keep him competitively compensated over the past two seasons.
While Gilmore’s name has come up in trade conversations, the Patriots didn’t come close to dealing him because there was never an acceptable offer on the table, according to a source. The presumption is the Patriots wouldn’t move him for less than a first-round pick. Would their price actually come down in the next three months, and how much will the torn quad impact his fate?
Keeping Gilmore would therefore make the most sense. A two-year, $28.5 million extension would be fair value, rolling that into the balance of his current contract for a three-year, $36 million pact.
Jackson is a restricted free agent, and the Patriots would like to accumulate more picks, particularly under the premise that they’re willing to trade into the top 10 for a quarterback. The Patriots’ two options with Jackson would be to give him a first- or second-round tender, but it’s historically rare for an opposing team to sign away a restricted free agent at the cost of a first-round pick.
Therefore, use a second-round tender, and entice a team to sign Jackson to an offer sheet. That’s an affordable price for a corner with a budding reputation around the league, and the Patriots could use the second-round asset while replacing Jackson with Joejuan Williams or Myles Bryant. They could also re-sign Jason McCourty.

3. The Patriots’ two biggest splashes in free agency will be Hunter Henry and Lavonte David​

Henry will be the top tight end on the market, so he’ll require a contract worth an average annual value of at least $10 million. But Henry also probably got the memo this month that Belichick is infatuated with him.
The Patriots desperately need more production at tight end. Rookies Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene could still grow into solid pieces, but how long will it take? The Patriots can’t go a third consecutive year devoid of statistical output from the position, and Henry would be the answer.
David, a linebacker who turns 31 in January, has flown under the radar in Tampa but has been reliable and productive on all three downs throughout his career. If the Patriots can get him for $8-9 million annually, they can stick him in the middle of their defense with Dont’a Hightower and let Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings flourish alongside them.
The front seven would enjoy an immediate upgrade with David on the inside.

4. Josh Uche will become the Patriots’ top pass rusher​

This is an easy one.
Uche has made an impact with his increased role over the past month, and his trajectory should have a sharp ascension with a normal offseason. Chase Winovich has had a very good season as the Patriots’ best pass rusher, but Uche’s raw talent will shine once the Patriots remove his training wheels.

5. The Patriots will focus on the second tier of free-agent wide receivers​

It would be a surprise if the Patriots completely abandoned their philosophy on paying receivers just because they’ve got $60 million in projected cap space, the fourth-most in the NFL.
That’s why $14-18 million annually doesn’t add up for JuJu Smith-Schuster, Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay or Will Fuller. Rather, it’d make more sense to try to snare a pair of the next tier that includes Curtis Samuel, Marvin Jones, Sammy Watkins and Corey Davis.
If the Patriots can land two of them, somehow land one of the plethora of talented wideouts in the draft and combine them with Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers, the group would look much better.

6. The Patriots will re-sign Joe Thuney​

The Pats used the $14.8 million franchise tag on Thuney despite being tight against the cap because they hoped to extend him to a long-term contract. The two sides were never close to an extension before the deadline, nor were the Patriots close to trading him due to an absence of acceptable offers. They also weren’t going to just flip him to the highest bidder due to his value to the team, which played out tenfold as he hopped between left guard and center early in the season.
It’d be surprising if they didn’t continue to offer him a competitive contract. There are only 10 teams with at least $30 million in projected cap room, and it’s tough to envision most of them using a major chunk of it on an interior lineman. Maybe Washington or the Bengals makes a huge push, but Thuney would then have to decide between the fattest payday and an environment he knows best and is closer to achieving postseason success.
It’s unconventional for teams to devote so much cap space to guard, as Shaq Mason will carry a $9.775 million cap hit, but the Patriots can pull it off while their tackles are on rookie contracts.

1/2​

 
I would think that is exactly what the owners would want to do.
Lower salaries and lower payroll...yeah, the owners wouldn't mind pocketing some extra profit after this year. Let the GMs handle the personnel and the coaches handle the Xs and Os as collateral damage.
The NFLPA won't want that but it goes back to the CBA and the % of revenue. Not much the NFLPA can do about it unless the owners agree to negotiate from what I'm told.
 
I think the Pats offense is just too complex for a rookie to start. I agree with your overall premise but not for the Pats. Qb takes time to develop in our system. Took Jimmy 2.5 years.
 

“He could coach every position better than the position coach,” Long said. “That’s insane. It’s insane. Just the way he’s hands-on everywhere. And also, like most teams you’re on, after you have a terrible game, you talk to the coach for like five minutes. He might cuss you out. Everybody feels really small for a couple of seconds. And then you split up, offense and defense.

“Bill’s going to do it in front of the whole room. And everybody has to sit in there. And everybody sits in there for like two hours. You watch the whole tape. So I know who’s shitty on offense. If I played bad (in 2016), Tom Brady knows I’ve played bad and all those guys, so on and so forth. (I would love to have) his knowledge and that kind of comprehensive understanding of the game.”
 

Best QBs Available via Free Agency (Free-Agent board rank)​

  1. Dak Prescott (1)
  2. Ryan Fitzpatrick (18)
  3. Jameis Winston (29)
  4. Cam Newton (34)
  5. Andy Dalton (35)

Editor's note: PFF’s 2021 NFL free-agency rankings offer three-year player grades, updated contract information, in-depth player analysis and PFF’s newly developed Wins Above Replacement (WAR) metric for all of the top NFL free agents. Click here to view the full list.

The potential prize of the free-agent market is Prescott, but there’s still a high-percentage chance that he will re-sign with the Dallas Cowboys before free agency starts. If he’s available, it’s a potential top-10 quarterback who will be coveted by every QB-needy team not picking in the top four of the draft.

Prescott posted the highest grade of his career in 2020, albeit on a limited sample, and he did so in a Dallas attack that relied heavily on the passing game. He recorded the 11th-highest percentage of positively graded throws prior to his injury and has taken his game to a new level over the past two years.

Fitzpatrick is another potential starter in more of a “bridge” quarterback role, though he’s also played the best football of his career over the last three years, earning PFF grades of 83.9 (2018), 76.6 (2019) and 75.1 (2020) since 2018.

Newton may not earn another starting job after a rough season in New England. The same is true for Winston, who has starter potential but couldn’t convince a team to hand him the keys in 2020. Both quarterbacks could be vying for “best backup in the league” status in 2021, and they’re more than capable of leading efficient offenses with a good supporting cast.

Best QBs Available via the 2021 NFL Draft (2021 NFL Draft Board rank)​

  1. Trevor Lawrence (1)
  2. Zach Wilson (2)
  3. Justin Fields (3)
  4. Trey Lance (10)
  5. Mac Jones (30)
  6. Kyle Trask (44)
  7. Jamie Newman (86)
The draft is loaded at the top, with the possibility that three quarterbacks come off the board with the top three picks.

Lawrence is the prize of the class, as he will enter the league with the best combination of velocity, accuracy, decision-making and athleticism that we have seen in quite a while.

BYU’s Wilson emerged with a dominant 2020 season to go with excellent velocity and natural playmaking ability. Meanwhile, Ohio State’s Fields also possesses the necessary tools to succeed, and it’s just a matter of him getting to play a bit faster than he did with the Buckeyes.

Other potential first-rounders include North Dakota State’s Lance, who has a big arm and good speed, but he’s played just over 1,000 snaps in college at the FCS level. He’s a toolsy project who needs time to develop.

The other intriguing names include Alabama’s Mac Jones, who broke out with an incredible 2020 campaign. Jones just earned the highest PFF grade we've ever given to a college quarterback and is the opposite of many of the aforementioned prospects, as he relies on accuracy and decision-making rather than physical tools.

Florida’s Trask is similar, as both he and Jones lack the out-of-pocket magic of their peers. Trask’s big selling point is his late development as a passer after playing so little football over the last few years.

Newman is another mid-round prospect to watch, as he showed flashes of brilliance at Wake Forest, albeit in an offensive system that has little that translates to the NFL. He has a good deep ball and promising rushing ability.

The rest of the class features potential backups and “upside” plays, such as Texas A&M’s Kellen Mond.

Best Quarterbacks Available via potential trade (2020 PFF QB Rank)​

  1. Deshaun Watson (3)
  2. Matthew Stafford (13)
  3. Jimmy Garoppolo (32)
  4. Carson Wentz (35)
Here’s where the offseason could get crazy. Watson may want out of Houston, and he’s a top-three asset in the NFL. He would command multiple first-round picks and more.

Stafford makes the list only because of the new regime in Detroit, and he could be coveted by teams closer to “win-now” mode. After a slow start, Stafford found his groove during the second half of the season on his way to the 12th-highest percentage of big-time throws at 5.1%. His 82.0 overall grade is the second-highest of his career, right behind his 2019 mark of 82.6.

Garoppolo is movable for the 49ers, and that will be predicated on whether head coach Kyle Shanahan feels as though his offense has maxed out with Jimmy G under center. The 49ers hold the 12th pick of the draft, perhaps a good spot for a developmental quarterback like Trey Lance, and that decision would buy Garoppolo some time as the starter in San Francisco.

The Eagles are in rebuilding mode, and Carson Wentz is coming off one of the most dramatic drop-offs in NFL history. He has a tough contract to move, but as a reclamation project, there will be interest around the league if the Eagles decide it’s time for both parties to start anew.

If your team is in need of a quarterback, the top of the draft is the best bet this season. Beyond that, having extra draft capital could lead to a potential Watson trade or perhaps another veteran option like Stafford.

Free agency is better suited for bridge quarterbacks and high-end backups, though Prescott hitting the market would be a game-changer
.
 
Great stuff Chevss. Thank you.

Best QBs Available via Free Agency (Free-Agent board rank)​

  1. Dak Prescott (1)
  2. Ryan Fitzpatrick (18)
  3. Jameis Winston (29)
  4. Cam Newton (34)
  5. Andy Dalton (35)
In this group, I would want Dak first, then Fitz, then Winston although I think the Saints are going to re-sign him with Brees' retirement.

Best QBs Available via the 2021 NFL Draft (2021 NFL Draft Board rank)​

  1. Trevor Lawrence (1)
  2. Zach Wilson (2)
  3. Justin Fields (3)
  4. Trey Lance (10)
  5. Mac Jones (30)
  6. Kyle Trask (44)
  7. Jamie Newman (86)
In this group, I would want Fields or Trask. Pats would have to move up to get Fields for sure and maybe Trask too. I don't know who Jamie Newman is. Is he good?

Best Quarterbacks Available via potential trade (2020 PFF QB Rank)​

  1. Deshaun Watson (3)
  2. Matthew Stafford (13)
  3. Jimmy Garoppolo (32)
  4. Carson Wentz (35)
This by far is the most intriguing group. First on my list would be Watson but I doubt Bill gives up the capital to get him. I would want Jimmy next. I know many folks have soured on Jimmy but we know he can run our system and he is a winner. The injuries are very worrisome but perhaps our training staff can get the best out of him there. I don't want any part of Wentz or Stafford.
 



Jules just confirmed he's not retiring, so that's great news. His contract isn't too crazy either, so I'd like to think he will play for the Pats next season.
 
Great stuff Chevss. Thank you.

Best QBs Available via Free Agency (Free-Agent board rank)​

  1. Dak Prescott (1)
  2. Ryan Fitzpatrick (18)
  3. Jameis Winston (29)
  4. Cam Newton (34)
  5. Andy Dalton (35)
In this group, I would want Dak first, then Fitz, then Winston although I think the Saints are going to re-sign him with Brees' retirement.

Best QBs Available via the 2021 NFL Draft (2021 NFL Draft Board rank)​

  1. Trevor Lawrence (1)
  2. Zach Wilson (2)
  3. Justin Fields (3)
  4. Trey Lance (10)
  5. Mac Jones (30)
  6. Kyle Trask (44)
  7. Jamie Newman (86)
In this group, I would want Fields or Trask. Pats would have to move up to get Fields for sure and maybe Trask too. I don't know who Jamie Newman is. Is he good?

Best Quarterbacks Available via potential trade (2020 PFF QB Rank)​

  1. Deshaun Watson (3)
  2. Matthew Stafford (13)
  3. Jimmy Garoppolo (32)
  4. Carson Wentz (35)
This by far is the most intriguing group. First on my list would be Watson but I doubt Bill gives up the capital to get him. I would want Jimmy next. I know many folks have soured on Jimmy but we know he can run our system and he is a winner. The injuries are very worrisome but perhaps our training staff can get the best out of him there. I don't want any part of Wentz or Stafford.

I'd take Stafford in a heartbeat. He'd be a perfect bridge for 2-3 years.
 
I'd take Stafford in a heartbeat. He'd be a perfect bridge for 2-3 years.
Between the picks it would take to get him and the amount we would have to pay him, I would not want him. We have so many holes to fill. He would prevent us from building a team around him. If we were just a piece or two away he would be great but we can't mortgage picks and that much cap IMO.
 
Between the picks it would take to get him and the amount we would have to pay him, I would not want him. We have so many holes to fill. He would prevent us from building a team around him. If we were just a piece or two away he would be great but we can't mortgage picks and that much cap IMO.
$20M/
 
As long as he's a personnel evaluation guy, I'm fine with it. He and Rothstein bring all the Lions' player evaluations for the draft.
Can't hurt.
Do Not Want Him as DC.
My impression (and that's all it is) was under his watch I was constantly yelling (3rd down) "Get off the field" but no luck.

So I'm with you,

Cheers
 
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