Rebuilding The Patriots For 2021 And Beyond

Jeff Howe gives his thoughts - the Athletic

My comments:
I'll add Fla. QB Kyle Trask to his list of QBs to draft. 6'5", 240. Drop back pocket presence++ with decent mobility. 2020 stats - 70% completion rate, 4125 yds, 11.6 AY/A, 43 TDs and only 5 ints. BB could trade back to around 20-25 and still get Trask while adding a late 2nd or early 3rd to boot.
WRs - Marvin Jones &/or Corey Davis would be perfect, thank you.
TE - Hunter Henry for sure. He'd help immensely.
Adding a TE & 2 WRs would do wonders for the offense.
LB - Lavonte David has been productive his entire career plus he can cover a back or a TE.
Of our own FAs, I'm not certain JMac will be back, at least not as a CB; maybe at S. I'd like to keep Byrd and James White.




By Jeff Howe Dec 28, 2020
comment-icon@2x.png
44
save-icon@2x.png


The best thing about 2020? There’s at least a sliver of hope it’ll turn to 2021.
That’s where the Patriots have set their focus, as the regular season will expire in a week and they can turn their attention toward the next phase of their rebuild.
So let’s do the same and make 10 bold predictions for the upcoming year. Due to the likelihood that many of these predictions won’t be worth the paper they’re printed on, this message will soon self-destruct. No receipts, please.

1. The Patriots will trade up to draft a quarterback and keep* Cam Newton​

Bill Belichick has publicly acknowledged the advantages of building a roster around a quarterback on a rookie contract, and there are four franchise-caliber talents who are projected top-10 picks.
Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence will likely be the No. 1 pick — too rich for the Patriots — and BYU’s Zach Wilson, Ohio State’s Justin Fields and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance will be gone shortly thereafter. It’ll most likely cost the Patriots at least a pair of first-round picks to get into range to select one of them.
That’s a price worth paying if there’s conviction behind their evaluation of the right quarterback, and the pace of their rebuild depends on it.
There’d be some value in keeping Newton on a short-money contract, especially if the Patriots boost the talent at tight end and wide receiver. If the Patriots trade up to draft a quarterback, they’re not going to want to also spend a significant chunk of cap space on a veteran, so keeping Newton would make some sense.
He’s good for the locker room and should be a solid mentor for a rookie. If the draft pick isn’t ready to start early in the season, Newton would be a serviceable placeholder.
(*I changed my mind three times while writing this section, could do so 10 more times depending how Jarrett Stidham is involved in the final two games and might do so hundreds more times prior to free agency.)

2. The Patriots will extend Stephon Gilmore’s contract and place a second-round tender on J.C. Jackson​

Gilmore is still playing at an extremely high level, but he’ll only earn $7.5 million in cash next season because the Patriots have accelerated future earnings to keep him competitively compensated over the past two seasons.
While Gilmore’s name has come up in trade conversations, the Patriots didn’t come close to dealing him because there was never an acceptable offer on the table, according to a source. The presumption is the Patriots wouldn’t move him for less than a first-round pick. Would their price actually come down in the next three months, and how much will the torn quad impact his fate?
Keeping Gilmore would therefore make the most sense. A two-year, $28.5 million extension would be fair value, rolling that into the balance of his current contract for a three-year, $36 million pact.
Jackson is a restricted free agent, and the Patriots would like to accumulate more picks, particularly under the premise that they’re willing to trade into the top 10 for a quarterback. The Patriots’ two options with Jackson would be to give him a first- or second-round tender, but it’s historically rare for an opposing team to sign away a restricted free agent at the cost of a first-round pick.
Therefore, use a second-round tender, and entice a team to sign Jackson to an offer sheet. That’s an affordable price for a corner with a budding reputation around the league, and the Patriots could use the second-round asset while replacing Jackson with Joejuan Williams or Myles Bryant. They could also re-sign Jason McCourty.

3. The Patriots’ two biggest splashes in free agency will be Hunter Henry and Lavonte David​

Henry will be the top tight end on the market, so he’ll require a contract worth an average annual value of at least $10 million. But Henry also probably got the memo this month that Belichick is infatuated with him.
The Patriots desperately need more production at tight end. Rookies Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene could still grow into solid pieces, but how long will it take? The Patriots can’t go a third consecutive year devoid of statistical output from the position, and Henry would be the answer.
David, a linebacker who turns 31 in January, has flown under the radar in Tampa but has been reliable and productive on all three downs throughout his career. If the Patriots can get him for $8-9 million annually, they can stick him in the middle of their defense with Dont’a Hightower and let Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings flourish alongside them.
The front seven would enjoy an immediate upgrade with David on the inside.

4. Josh Uche will become the Patriots’ top pass rusher​

This is an easy one.
Uche has made an impact with his increased role over the past month, and his trajectory should have a sharp ascension with a normal offseason. Chase Winovich has had a very good season as the Patriots’ best pass rusher, but Uche’s raw talent will shine once the Patriots remove his training wheels.

5. The Patriots will focus on the second tier of free-agent wide receivers​

It would be a surprise if the Patriots completely abandoned their philosophy on paying receivers just because they’ve got $60 million in projected cap space, the fourth-most in the NFL.
That’s why $14-18 million annually doesn’t add up for JuJu Smith-Schuster, Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay or Will Fuller. Rather, it’d make more sense to try to snare a pair of the next tier that includes Curtis Samuel, Marvin Jones, Sammy Watkins and Corey Davis.
If the Patriots can land two of them, somehow land one of the plethora of talented wideouts in the draft and combine them with Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers, the group would look much better.

6. The Patriots will re-sign Joe Thuney​

The Pats used the $14.8 million franchise tag on Thuney despite being tight against the cap because they hoped to extend him to a long-term contract. The two sides were never close to an extension before the deadline, nor were the Patriots close to trading him due to an absence of acceptable offers. They also weren’t going to just flip him to the highest bidder due to his value to the team, which played out tenfold as he hopped between left guard and center early in the season.
It’d be surprising if they didn’t continue to offer him a competitive contract. There are only 10 teams with at least $30 million in projected cap room, and it’s tough to envision most of them using a major chunk of it on an interior lineman. Maybe Washington or the Bengals makes a huge push, but Thuney would then have to decide between the fattest payday and an environment he knows best and is closer to achieving postseason success.
It’s unconventional for teams to devote so much cap space to guard, as Shaq Mason will carry a $9.775 million cap hit, but the Patriots can pull it off while their tackles are on rookie contracts.

1/2​

 
I’m not a troll, but sometimes I directly state my opinion. It’s pretty low on the current coaching staff.
The Patriots are flat out not making the playoffs for a long time. At least 2 or 3 years. Buffalo could be better next year, the phins will probably be fighting and getting a wild card, and I don’t know if y’all have noticed but the Jets finally hired a competent coach, and have the picks to rebuild a roster that wasn’t as bad as their record would indicate.
So assuming this teams gonna be bad for a long time, what’s the best way to rebuild?
I think taking a QB in the first this year is a mistake if a can’t miss Dlineman, LB, or WR is right there. Fill in with a competent FA vet at the QB position, or get marriota and hope he doesn’t get injured. Have to keep White and Thuney. Pay them now up front. Not on the back end of the deal. Make them happy. We need guys like them who know winning culture. I’m really hoping though they don’t force the issue at QB.
Well, whatever BB does or doesn't do, at least we can be sure you and Mazz will tell us ad nauseum why it was a stupid thing to do or not to have done.
 
The Pats are actively looking for a QB in FA & the trade market but so far the cost has been too much. The Pats will be patient.

From Jeff Howe - The Athletic


The New England Patriots have been aggressively perusing the quarterback trade market, but they have so far been thwarted by inflated prices in an offseason that is currently siding with the sellers.

Bill Belichick and the Patriots, in pursuit of an upgrade at the position, have had conversations regarding every potential trade target in the league, according to sources.

However, the demand outweighs the supply, and teams aren’t budging at this stage of the process for a couple of reasons. First, the trades of Matthew Stafford and Carson Wentz have caused the prices to tilt out of control. The Rams acquired Stafford for two first-round picks, a third-rounder and quarterback Jared Goff. The Colts landed Wentz for a third-round pick and a conditional first- or second-rounder.

Second, timing remains on the sellers’ side. With three weeks until free agency and the official start of the 2021 league year and two months until the draft, teams don’t feel obliged to pawn off their veteran assets until a buyer shows desperation.

So far, the Patriots have been disciplined in their approach. They spoke to the Lions about Stafford and to the Eagles regarding Wentz, but the Patriots weren’t serious contenders for either quarterback due to the asking price.

The rest of the candidates on the trade market have been well-established: Deshaun Watson, Jimmy Garoppolo, Marcus Mariota and Sam Darnold. It’s possible Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Teddy Bridgewater, Gardner Minshew and Nick Foles are also among that group.

As it was expressed to The Athletic, if a quarterback has been perceived to be available, the Patriots have picked up the phone. The asking price of any of the available quarterbacks has not been disclosed.

It’s understandable why the Patriots haven’t been willing to meet those demands, as the trade candidates outside of Watson and Wilson — if those two are even realistically available — aren’t sure things as franchise quarterbacks.

The Patriots haven’t ruled out the possibility of re-signing Cam Newton, but they have indeed explored the rest of the market before Newton becomes a free agent. Other quarterbacks with expiring contracts include Dak Prescott, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, Tyrod Taylor, Mitch Trubisky and Jacoby Brissett.

There’s another issue at hand. With the No. 15 pick in the draft, the Patriots are likely out of the range of top prospects like Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence, BYU’s Zach Wilson, Ohio State’s Justin Fields and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance. Given the state of the free-agent class – minus Prescott, who appears to be heading for another franchise tag – teams know the Patriots are in a challenging spot at quarterback and seem to be willing to take a hard line with their negotiating stance.

That’s why the Patriots have been measured. It’s possible other teams will reduce their asking price if conversations dry up before free agency or the draft. It’s also possible the Patriots would increase their offers prior to free agency to lure other veterans, especially at wide receiver and tight end. The possibility also exists that the Patriots are gathering information in totality, assessing the price of every available quarterback before determining which one is worth targeting at his price point. Or perhaps the Patriots are gearing up for a trade in the draft, thereby limiting how much they’re willing to spend in the veteran market.

But until there’s a market correction, the Patriots are being diligent. They’re working to upgrade the position, but they haven’t yet reached the point of overspending on a quarterback, instead preferring to wait for prices to normalize.
 
A new guy at PFF thinks the Pats should tank for Rattler
Note to new guy - BB doesn't think like that.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

It really isn’t all that crazy for New England to trot out Jarrett Stidham Week 1. It’d be the best thing for the franchise long-term because the quarterback is the right man for the tank. If the Patriots were to throw in the towel for 2021, they could put themselves in a position to grab the QB who is likely to be the prize of the 2022 class, Oklahoma's Spencer Rattler.

The Patriots' roster is hardly primed for postseason success. This past season, their team as a whole ranked outside the top 20 in total team WAR generated. If they pursue someone like Andy Dalton (69.5 passing grade in 2020) or opt to re-sign Cam Newton (67.8 passing grade in 2020), they’d be setting themselves up for another mediocre season and a middle-of-the-pack draft slot for next year, and that would put them out of reach for one of the top quarterback prospects — Just like they did this year.
 
A new guy at PFF thinks the Pats should tank for Rattler
Note to new guy - BB doesn't think like that.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

It really isn’t all that crazy for New England to trot out Jarrett Stidham Week 1. It’d be the best thing for the franchise long-term because the quarterback is the right man for the tank. If the Patriots were to throw in the towel for 2021, they could put themselves in a position to grab the QB who is likely to be the prize of the 2022 class, Oklahoma's Spencer Rattler.

The Patriots' roster is hardly primed for postseason success. This past season, their team as a whole ranked outside the top 20 in total team WAR generated. If they pursue someone like Andy Dalton (69.5 passing grade in 2020) or opt to re-sign Cam Newton (67.8 passing grade in 2020), they’d be setting themselves up for another mediocre season and a middle-of-the-pack draft slot for next year, and that would put them out of reach for one of the top quarterback prospects — Just like they did this year.
chevss454, you do a great job getting all this information, and posting it here. I'm sure a lot of people, who are members of this site, are really happy about that. Thanks for everything!
 
A new guy at PFF thinks the Pats should tank for Rattler
Note to new guy - BB doesn't think like that.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

It really isn’t all that crazy for New England to trot out Jarrett Stidham Week 1. It’d be the best thing for the franchise long-term because the quarterback is the right man for the tank. If the Patriots were to throw in the towel for 2021, they could put themselves in a position to grab the QB who is likely to be the prize of the 2022 class, Oklahoma's Spencer Rattler.

The Patriots' roster is hardly primed for postseason success. This past season, their team as a whole ranked outside the top 20 in total team WAR generated. If they pursue someone like Andy Dalton (69.5 passing grade in 2020) or opt to re-sign Cam Newton (67.8 passing grade in 2020), they’d be setting themselves up for another mediocre season and a middle-of-the-pack draft slot for next year, and that would put them out of reach for one of the top quarterback prospects — Just like they did this year.


I'm not as bullish on Stidham as I once was, but PFF's "right man for the tank" is not a fair assessment, because it is impossible to judge Jarrett until he gets a legitimate chance, which he
has clearly not been given. It's frustrating for me to see people knee-jerking all over the place based on the last thing they saw which in this case is strictly garbage-time cameos

It is not an impossibility that Stidham could be a capable QB and maybe more if he were the anointed starter and had game plans drawn up for his skillset and the bulk of the
practice reps. In other words, the same framework for development that just about every decent QB in the league has been handed at some point.

He's still young, still unproven and remains a largely unknown commodity. Anybody that passes final judgement on what he is or could become based on zero starts and 4 picks
in 48 career passes thrown must be Nostradamus. Brady threw 3 in 10 minutes versus Green Bay, so let's pump the brakes until Stidham gets a non-garbage time audition, which
could be coming soon to a stadium near you.

This reminds me so much of the fan's and media's negative attitude towards Jimmy G. after he threw some allegedly bad picks in training camp and when he finally got a chance (Brady suspension) he looked quite a bit better than we'd been told he would. Imagine THAT!!!!
 
I'm not as bullish on Stidham as I once was, but PFF's "right man for the tank" is not a fair assessment, because it is impossible to judge Jarrett until he gets a legitimate chance, which he
has clearly not been given. It's frustrating for me to see people knee-jerking all over the place based on the last thing they saw which in this case is strictly garbage-time cameos

It is not an impossibility that Stidham could be a capable QB and maybe more if he were the anointed starter and had game plans drawn up for his skillset and the bulk of the
practice reps. In other words, the same framework for development that just about every decent QB in the league has been handed at some point.

He's still young, still unproven and remains a largely unknown commodity. Anybody that passes final judgement on what he is or could become based on zero starts and 4 picks
in 48 career passes thrown must be Nostradamus. Brady threw 3 in 10 minutes versus Green Bay, so let's pump the brakes until Stidham gets a non-garbage time audition, which
could be coming soon to a stadium near you.

This reminds me so much of the fan's and media's negative attitude towards Jimmy G. after he threw some allegedly bad picks in training camp and when he finally got a chance (Brady suspension) he looked quite a bit better than we'd been told he would. Imagine THAT!!!!
This statement dovetails nicely into the conversation of how BB should be given props for bringing in Brady and making Brady the primary backup qb. What if TFB was not given the opportunity to get some starts until year 4. A couple of mop ups in bad losses when the opposing D has the ears pinned back. Stidham has not been given a legit shot at starting yet and if TFB had been brought along this way, he may never had gotten the shot of being TFB. Yes I know who is coming for me.
 
If Stidham could be the man he’d have been given more of an opportunity. They see him everyday.

He couldn’t make it through training camp. Little things like that hip issue tell you a lot about players. Some guys just don’t have the ability to stay healthy. Some guys just don’t have ability. With stidham it may be both.

Mariota can play. He can’t do it for 16 games. He’ll get nicked up and his play will decline as a result. Same with Jimmy. Him making it through 16 games is the exception not the rule to his career. That said, I’m ok with one or even both of those guys provided they aren’t getting paid like a starter. With either one you need a damn good backup, and you need the cap space to keep a good team around them.
 
Last edited:
A new guy at PFF thinks the Pats should tank for Rattler
Note to new guy - BB doesn't think like that.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

It really isn’t all that crazy for New England to trot out Jarrett Stidham Week 1. It’d be the best thing for the franchise long-term because the quarterback is the right man for the tank. If the Patriots were to throw in the towel for 2021, they could put themselves in a position to grab the QB who is likely to be the prize of the 2022 class, Oklahoma's Spencer Rattler.

The Patriots' roster is hardly primed for postseason success. This past season, their team as a whole ranked outside the top 20 in total team WAR generated. If they pursue someone like Andy Dalton (69.5 passing grade in 2020) or opt to re-sign Cam Newton (67.8 passing grade in 2020), they’d be setting themselves up for another mediocre season and a middle-of-the-pack draft slot for next year, and that would put them out of reach for one of the top quarterback prospects — Just like they did this year.
Last year should be proof of that... :coffee:
 
The Pats are actively looking for a QB in FA & the trade market but so far the cost has been too much. The Pats will be patient.

From Jeff Howe - The Athletic


The New England Patriots have been aggressively perusing the quarterback trade market, but they have so far been thwarted by inflated prices in an offseason that is currently siding with the sellers.

Bill Belichick and the Patriots, in pursuit of an upgrade at the position, have had conversations regarding every potential trade target in the league, according to sources.

However, the demand outweighs the supply, and teams aren’t budging at this stage of the process for a couple of reasons. First, the trades of Matthew Stafford and Carson Wentz have caused the prices to tilt out of control. The Rams acquired Stafford for two first-round picks, a third-rounder and quarterback Jared Goff. The Colts landed Wentz for a third-round pick and a conditional first- or second-rounder.

Second, timing remains on the sellers’ side. With three weeks until free agency and the official start of the 2021 league year and two months until the draft, teams don’t feel obliged to pawn off their veteran assets until a buyer shows desperation.

So far, the Patriots have been disciplined in their approach. They spoke to the Lions about Stafford and to the Eagles regarding Wentz, but the Patriots weren’t serious contenders for either quarterback due to the asking price.

The rest of the candidates on the trade market have been well-established: Deshaun Watson, Jimmy Garoppolo, Marcus Mariota and Sam Darnold. It’s possible Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Teddy Bridgewater, Gardner Minshew and Nick Foles are also among that group.

As it was expressed to The Athletic, if a quarterback has been perceived to be available, the Patriots have picked up the phone. The asking price of any of the available quarterbacks has not been disclosed.

It’s understandable why the Patriots haven’t been willing to meet those demands, as the trade candidates outside of Watson and Wilson — if those two are even realistically available — aren’t sure things as franchise quarterbacks.

The Patriots haven’t ruled out the possibility of re-signing Cam Newton, but they have indeed explored the rest of the market before Newton becomes a free agent. Other quarterbacks with expiring contracts include Dak Prescott, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, Tyrod Taylor, Mitch Trubisky and Jacoby Brissett.

There’s another issue at hand. With the No. 15 pick in the draft, the Patriots are likely out of the range of top prospects like Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence, BYU’s Zach Wilson, Ohio State’s Justin Fields and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance. Given the state of the free-agent class – minus Prescott, who appears to be heading for another franchise tag – teams know the Patriots are in a challenging spot at quarterback and seem to be willing to take a hard line with their negotiating stance.

That’s why the Patriots have been measured. It’s possible other teams will reduce their asking price if conversations dry up before free agency or the draft. It’s also possible the Patriots would increase their offers prior to free agency to lure other veterans, especially at wide receiver and tight end. The possibility also exists that the Patriots are gathering information in totality, assessing the price of every available quarterback before determining which one is worth targeting at his price point. Or perhaps the Patriots are gearing up for a trade in the draft, thereby limiting how much they’re willing to spend in the veteran market.

But until there’s a market correction, the Patriots are being diligent. They’re working to upgrade the position, but they haven’t yet reached the point of overspending on a quarterback, instead preferring to wait for prices to normalize.
Fitzmagic and/or Minshew would be low cost, low risk, decent possibility of reward bridge QB's imo...
 
Am I the only one that would rather give the 2008 Lions a run for their money than sign Fitzpatrick and see them go 6-10?

Honestly, if they can't get a QB this offseason and can bring Cam back for another $1 million deal, why not consider that route? No, I don't love that, and it would suck. But at least Cam Newtown firmly believes he still has a place in this league. I can't say that is true of any other FA QB.
 
Am I the only one that would rather give the 2008 Lions a run for their money than sign Fitzpatrick and see them go 6-10?

Honestly, if they can't get a QB this offseason and can bring Cam back for another $1 million deal, why not consider that route? No, I don't love that, and it would suck. But at least Cam Newtown firmly believes he still has a place in this league. I can't say that is true of any other FA QB.
Sign/trade for Fitzmagic or Minshew...AND draft Mac Jones. Unless BB wants Ridder on the Cincinnati Bearcats. The trades/free agency additions are ONLY used for bridge QB's.
 
Am I the only one that would rather give the 2008 Lions a run for their money than sign Fitzpatrick and see them go 6-10?

Honestly, if they can't get a QB this offseason and can bring Cam back for another $1 million deal, why not consider that route? No, I don't love that, and it would suck. But at least Cam Newtown firmly believes he still has a place in this league. I can't say that is true of any other FA QB.

I recall when Red Auerbach drafted Larry Bird a year prior to his becoming draft eligible and we got the unique opportunity to
watch a guy that we knew was coming here play his final year in college. And it was pretty damn exciting. No guesswork involved.

Of course that was basketball and it didn't require the judgement of Auerbach to see that that kid was incredible. 5 guys on the floor and
one of them it constantly involved in the action. Bird was brilliant at everything.

Anyhow, I can't see Bill tanking anything for anybody. I just think he'd refuse to ever consider that because he has too much respect for
the game and the players who make up each team to do something like that. I do believe he has "tanked" a game here or there for various
reasons, but all fell into the category of bettering the team's chances to win a Championship in that same season, but.....a whole year? Nah. Not Bill. No way.

It's an interesting debate, but I don't want to see us go the way of the Colts starting Curtis Painter in order to land Andrew Luck and then lying
there were actually trying. Bill does some strange shit, but I can't imagine him not trying to compete. There is just too much that can go wrong
in football and he has too much integrity.

Also, I wouldn't be shocked if Cam came back, either, although the offseason would have to go completely sideways for that to happen. I think he'd
be a useful situational back-up guy, ala Taysom Hill, but I don't want him as a starter in 2021 no matter how great a guy he is.
 
I recall when Red Auerbach drafted Larry Bird a year prior to his becoming draft eligible and we got the unique opportunity to
watch a guy that we knew was coming here play his final year in college. And it was pretty damn exciting. No guesswork involved.

Of course that was basketball and it didn't require the judgement of Auerbach to see that that kid was incredible. 5 guys on the floor and
one of them it constantly involved in the action. Bird was brilliant at everything.

Anyhow, I can't see Bill tanking anything for anybody. I just think he'd refuse to ever consider that because he has too much respect for
the game and the players who make up each team to do something like that. I do believe he has "tanked" a game here or there for various
reasons, but all fell into the category of bettering the team's chances to win a Championship in that same season, but.....a whole year? Nah. Not Bill. No way.

It's an interesting debate, but I don't want to see us go the way of the Colts starting Curtis Painter in order to land Andrew Luck and then lying
there were actually trying. Bill does some strange shit, but I can't imagine him not trying to compete. There is just too much that can go wrong
in football and he has too much integrity.

Also, I wouldn't be shocked if Cam came back, either, although the offseason would have to go completely sideways for that to happen. I think he'd
be a useful situational back-up guy, ala Taysom Hill, but I don't want him as a starter in 2021 no matter how great a guy he is.
I started a thread about that...it's the only way that would make sense for sCam to stay in NE. Transform him into a Taysom Hill gadget player. Have him play FB, TE, QB in specific situations. NOT a starter, but, a Swiss Army situational player.
 
What NFL team won a super bowl by tanking?

I guess the colts were pretty bad when they drafted Manning, but looking back on it there aren’t many teams that tanked their way to success.
 
Back
Top