Rebuilding The Patriots For 2021 And Beyond

Jeff Howe gives his thoughts - the Athletic

My comments:
I'll add Fla. QB Kyle Trask to his list of QBs to draft. 6'5", 240. Drop back pocket presence++ with decent mobility. 2020 stats - 70% completion rate, 4125 yds, 11.6 AY/A, 43 TDs and only 5 ints. BB could trade back to around 20-25 and still get Trask while adding a late 2nd or early 3rd to boot.
WRs - Marvin Jones &/or Corey Davis would be perfect, thank you.
TE - Hunter Henry for sure. He'd help immensely.
Adding a TE & 2 WRs would do wonders for the offense.
LB - Lavonte David has been productive his entire career plus he can cover a back or a TE.
Of our own FAs, I'm not certain JMac will be back, at least not as a CB; maybe at S. I'd like to keep Byrd and James White.




By Jeff Howe Dec 28, 2020
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The best thing about 2020? There’s at least a sliver of hope it’ll turn to 2021.
That’s where the Patriots have set their focus, as the regular season will expire in a week and they can turn their attention toward the next phase of their rebuild.
So let’s do the same and make 10 bold predictions for the upcoming year. Due to the likelihood that many of these predictions won’t be worth the paper they’re printed on, this message will soon self-destruct. No receipts, please.

1. The Patriots will trade up to draft a quarterback and keep* Cam Newton​

Bill Belichick has publicly acknowledged the advantages of building a roster around a quarterback on a rookie contract, and there are four franchise-caliber talents who are projected top-10 picks.
Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence will likely be the No. 1 pick — too rich for the Patriots — and BYU’s Zach Wilson, Ohio State’s Justin Fields and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance will be gone shortly thereafter. It’ll most likely cost the Patriots at least a pair of first-round picks to get into range to select one of them.
That’s a price worth paying if there’s conviction behind their evaluation of the right quarterback, and the pace of their rebuild depends on it.
There’d be some value in keeping Newton on a short-money contract, especially if the Patriots boost the talent at tight end and wide receiver. If the Patriots trade up to draft a quarterback, they’re not going to want to also spend a significant chunk of cap space on a veteran, so keeping Newton would make some sense.
He’s good for the locker room and should be a solid mentor for a rookie. If the draft pick isn’t ready to start early in the season, Newton would be a serviceable placeholder.
(*I changed my mind three times while writing this section, could do so 10 more times depending how Jarrett Stidham is involved in the final two games and might do so hundreds more times prior to free agency.)

2. The Patriots will extend Stephon Gilmore’s contract and place a second-round tender on J.C. Jackson​

Gilmore is still playing at an extremely high level, but he’ll only earn $7.5 million in cash next season because the Patriots have accelerated future earnings to keep him competitively compensated over the past two seasons.
While Gilmore’s name has come up in trade conversations, the Patriots didn’t come close to dealing him because there was never an acceptable offer on the table, according to a source. The presumption is the Patriots wouldn’t move him for less than a first-round pick. Would their price actually come down in the next three months, and how much will the torn quad impact his fate?
Keeping Gilmore would therefore make the most sense. A two-year, $28.5 million extension would be fair value, rolling that into the balance of his current contract for a three-year, $36 million pact.
Jackson is a restricted free agent, and the Patriots would like to accumulate more picks, particularly under the premise that they’re willing to trade into the top 10 for a quarterback. The Patriots’ two options with Jackson would be to give him a first- or second-round tender, but it’s historically rare for an opposing team to sign away a restricted free agent at the cost of a first-round pick.
Therefore, use a second-round tender, and entice a team to sign Jackson to an offer sheet. That’s an affordable price for a corner with a budding reputation around the league, and the Patriots could use the second-round asset while replacing Jackson with Joejuan Williams or Myles Bryant. They could also re-sign Jason McCourty.

3. The Patriots’ two biggest splashes in free agency will be Hunter Henry and Lavonte David​

Henry will be the top tight end on the market, so he’ll require a contract worth an average annual value of at least $10 million. But Henry also probably got the memo this month that Belichick is infatuated with him.
The Patriots desperately need more production at tight end. Rookies Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene could still grow into solid pieces, but how long will it take? The Patriots can’t go a third consecutive year devoid of statistical output from the position, and Henry would be the answer.
David, a linebacker who turns 31 in January, has flown under the radar in Tampa but has been reliable and productive on all three downs throughout his career. If the Patriots can get him for $8-9 million annually, they can stick him in the middle of their defense with Dont’a Hightower and let Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings flourish alongside them.
The front seven would enjoy an immediate upgrade with David on the inside.

4. Josh Uche will become the Patriots’ top pass rusher​

This is an easy one.
Uche has made an impact with his increased role over the past month, and his trajectory should have a sharp ascension with a normal offseason. Chase Winovich has had a very good season as the Patriots’ best pass rusher, but Uche’s raw talent will shine once the Patriots remove his training wheels.

5. The Patriots will focus on the second tier of free-agent wide receivers​

It would be a surprise if the Patriots completely abandoned their philosophy on paying receivers just because they’ve got $60 million in projected cap space, the fourth-most in the NFL.
That’s why $14-18 million annually doesn’t add up for JuJu Smith-Schuster, Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay or Will Fuller. Rather, it’d make more sense to try to snare a pair of the next tier that includes Curtis Samuel, Marvin Jones, Sammy Watkins and Corey Davis.
If the Patriots can land two of them, somehow land one of the plethora of talented wideouts in the draft and combine them with Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers, the group would look much better.

6. The Patriots will re-sign Joe Thuney​

The Pats used the $14.8 million franchise tag on Thuney despite being tight against the cap because they hoped to extend him to a long-term contract. The two sides were never close to an extension before the deadline, nor were the Patriots close to trading him due to an absence of acceptable offers. They also weren’t going to just flip him to the highest bidder due to his value to the team, which played out tenfold as he hopped between left guard and center early in the season.
It’d be surprising if they didn’t continue to offer him a competitive contract. There are only 10 teams with at least $30 million in projected cap room, and it’s tough to envision most of them using a major chunk of it on an interior lineman. Maybe Washington or the Bengals makes a huge push, but Thuney would then have to decide between the fattest payday and an environment he knows best and is closer to achieving postseason success.
It’s unconventional for teams to devote so much cap space to guard, as Shaq Mason will carry a $9.775 million cap hit, but the Patriots can pull it off while their tackles are on rookie contracts.

1/2​

 
I'm guessing no way BB will pay the money Godwin will get. I'd rather have 2 $8M/ WRs than 1 $15M/ WR anyway.
I agree. That being said, Godwin is probably the only WR I would break the bank for because he is such a great fit for our offense being the best slot receiver in the game.
 
I can name 3-4 slot receivers in the draft who will be available to us just as fast and athletic and talented as Godwin is.
Do you mind listing them for me? I don't follow college football much at all. Would like to know who you favor to see if the Pats take one. I would much rather get one through the draft.
 
Do you mind listing them for me? I don't follow college football much at all. Would like to know who you favor to see if the Pats take one. I would much rather get one through the draft.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC


In terms of a player who may play as a pure slot in the NFL, St-Brown may be the best of them all. The traits St-Brown possesses showcase everything a team would in a slot receiver. The suddenness, vice-grip hands, and yards after the catch ability are terrific in the case of St-Brown. With football bloodlines, St-Brown is going to be a guy with his stock through the roof.

Related | USC wide receivers Vaughns and St. Brown have NFL potential in 2020

All of those traits are just the base of St. Brown’s game, however. He has elite body control and delightful ball skills in addition to that. If a team wrote up an ideal middle of the field target, St. Brown could be that guy. With those route-running skills, St. Brown threatens all directions of the field and all levels as well. This young man will hear his name called early in the 2021 NFL Draft, as he deserves.

Rondale Moore, Purdue


If I were to mesh Atwell and Waddle together, Moore is the guy you would somehow come out with. He is one of the most dangerous gadget players I have seen in recent memory, but he is a much more refined route runner than Atwell is at this stage. This is a guy that is a legitimate playmaker with the ball in his hands on manufactured touches, but he can torch the defense deep from the slot too.

It is Moore’s toughness through contact that makes him so special. He can put guys on skates, but he is a tough football player who will take the shots to make those tough catches over the middle of the catch. I think Moore still can project on the boundary at times, but from the slot with his speed, free releases, and manufactured touches, he could be devastating for defenses. All those come together to make one of the best slot receivers in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Elijah Moore, Ole Miss


Moore has a massive issue of being horrific against press coverage, and that is why he lands on this list easily. The hand-fighting just is not there with his light frame. However, what he does have working in his favor is smooth route running and quickness. From the slot where he will be aligned off the ball, Moore thrives in the Ole Miss offense.

Moore works against off-man coverage with ease. He is not the fastest guy out there, but he has great route deception and attacks leverage as well as anyone on this list. Moore routinely won using those skills, but also elite body control and awareness along the sideline. He will not shake guys out of their shoes after the catch, but he creates a lot of separation and does so reliably.

Ihmir Smith-Marsette, Iowa


Smith-Marsette is one of the most graceful route runners I can remember watching at the wide receiver position in a bit of time. He moves in the open with fluidity and crisp footwork. As a route runner, he has quick feet and loose hips, which allows him to run sharp routes and stems. He can get separation with those skills.

The real issue is when Smith-Marsette is contacted at the line of scrimmage and must fight through press coverage. He has not shown the strength to beat that just yet, even if he plays with a physical side to his game. Listen, Smith-Marsette is a playmaker with the ball in his hands and can make guys miss as well. At his size and with his physicality, playing in the slot and using his size and fluidity to create separation would be a perfect match for Smith-Marsette.

Tutu Atwell, Louisville


I am a firm believer that size does matter in the NFL, but Atwell is so, so talented that it may not in his case. At 5’9″, 175 pounds, Atwell carries a thin and less than compact frame at the moment. Make no mistake, this young man is a good football player, but those size limitations will hurt him no matter his role in the NFL.

Related | Tutu Atwell’s size pushes requirements for NFL

Atwell’s speed and shiftiness make him a potent gadget player. Expect offensive coordinators to heavily mix in Atwell on motions, jet sweeps, mesh plays, and misdirection because he is a threat with the football in his hands. Even with the light frame, his contact balance is elite. Still, he has some trouble fighting through contact and press coverage. Allowing him to face man coverage and get free releases with his speed and quick feet out of the slot would only benefit the talented receiver.

Shi Smith
Jaelon Darden
Kadarius Toney
Anthony Schwartz
Dazz Newsome
 
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Bedard's thoughts on possible cap casualties the Pats might target

Cap casualties are going to be the most bang for the buck, if you pick some good ones, and you’ll still be in line for compensatory picks.

I would expect the Patriots to be interested in quarterbacks, tight ends, receivers, defensive linemen and linebackers. With that in mind, here are my players to keep an eye on, in order, grouped by the timing/intensity of the Patriots’ interest:

HOT AND HEAVY (POSSIBLE OVERPAY)

WR Mike Williams, Chargers
: Likely will get an extension, but he would also solve the opening for a big body on the outside.
TE David Njoku, Browns: So talented, so injured but man … if he pops, that’s one big void filled. Will have suitors.
DT/DE Grover Stewart, Colts: Patriots need to get bigger on the line to actually force teams into third downs. Reminds of Lawrence Guy in Baltimore at 6-4 and 333 pounds.
DT Kawann Short, Panthers: Now you’re talking some beef in the middle of the line.
TE Jared Cook, Saints: Maybe the second time is the charm in the Patriots’ pursuit?
TE Cameron Brate, Bucs: If he’s done taking paycuts, he’d be welcome here with open arms.
Edge Devon Kennard, Cardinals: If you’re looking for buying low on a guy with a lot of talent, this is it. Was never the same after Covid.
DE Carlos Dunlap, Seahawks: One of the more underrated players in the league would sure up one end.

COMPETITIVE (BUT AT PATRIOTS’ VALUATION)

TE C.J. Uzomah, Bengals
: Coming off a torn Achilles but was ready to pop at the time of the injury.
OLB Preston Smith, Packers: If he’s cut loose, there might be a bidding war and the Patriots will have their limit.
LB Jaylon Smith, Cowboys: Was in the wrong scheme last year and still has his best ball in front of him.
DT Akiem Hicks, Bears: Was a stud in Foxboro, New Orleans and Chicago. Time to bring him back home.
DT Sheldon Richardson, Browns: Likes his money and sometimes motivation is questioned, but when he’s right, he’s right.
WR DeSean Jackson, Eagles: Set to be released, Jackson seems to have matured a bit and can still make plays. Will be interesting to see if the Patriots think he fits in the locker room.
DT Shamar Stephen, Vikings: A very underrated player who would be excellent as a 3-4 DE.
WR Jamison Crowder, Jets: Very solid and professional receiver who would help, but he’s far from a No. 1.
DT Allen Bailey, Falcons: An excellent player in Kansas City who would be perfect for this scheme.
ILB Kenny Young, Rams: Young and athletic but not definite he’d take to this scheme so I’d proceed with a little caution.
DE Henry Anderson, Jets: Whether with Indy or the Jets, I’ve always liked this guy as a Richard Seymour-type. He would work very well here.

IF THE PLAYER LACKS SUITORS (AT VALUE ONE-YEAR, PROVE-IT DEAL)

LB Kwon Alexander, Saints
: Was traded last season from the 49ers and instantly was injured. Could be a diamond in the rough.
DT Malik Jackson, Eagles: Annually one of the most productive pass rushers in the league.
WR Marquise Goodwin, Eagles: Opt-out could be cut loose, and he still has good speed.
DT Jurrell Casey, Broncos: One of the best players in the league with the Titans still has a few years left of production.
WR Golden Tate, Giants: A dependable, veteran receiver who’s a gamer. Patriots don’t have enough of those.
WR Brandin Cooks, Texans: Has to be the least desirable six-time 1,000-yard receiver in NFL history. He’ll make the plays that are there, and none that are not.
TE Kyle Rudolph, Vikings: Solid two-way tight end but he’s pretty picky about his pay and where he would be going.
TE Jimmy Graham, Bears: I would certainly be open to have a tall red-zone threat on this team, even if he can’t block.
DT Danny Shelton, Lions: Run defense would instantly get better with his return.
QB Alex Smith, Washington: Hopefully he retires for his health, but a one-year deal with all sorts of incentives wouldn’t be the worst thing (see, I don’t hate Alex Smith).
LB Christian Jones, Lions: Matt Patricia gave him an extension in Detroit so you know he loves him, and he plays special teams.
DT Malcom Brown, Saints: Was always solid and nothing more. If he’s looking for a home …
TE Tyler Eifert, Jaguars: Tight end should be the new receivers in that expect a lot of looks at aging vets to see who has anything left.
WR Adam Humphries, Titans: After turning down the Patriots, you know Belichick would love to force him to take a one-year deal at minimum.
LB Benardrick McKinney, Texans: Houston overpaid him but he’d be perfect if the Patriots didn’t have Dont’a Hightower coming back.
WR John Brown, Bills: Chronic tease but a gamebreaker when healthy.
DE Jerry Hughes, Bills: Would be a typical cheap Patriots veteran pass rusher.
DE Emmanuel Ogbah, Dolphins: Showed he can play very well in this scheme.

 
Bedard's thoughts on possible cap casualties the Pats might target

Cap casualties are going to be the most bang for the buck, if you pick some good ones, and you’ll still be in line for compensatory picks.

I would expect the Patriots to be interested in quarterbacks, tight ends, receivers, defensive linemen and linebackers. With that in mind, here are my players to keep an eye on, in order, grouped by the timing/intensity of the Patriots’ interest:

HOT AND HEAVY (POSSIBLE OVERPAY)

WR Mike Williams, Chargers
: Likely will get an extension, but he would also solve the opening for a big body on the outside.
TE David Njoku, Browns: So talented, so injured but man … if he pops, that’s one big void filled. Will have suitors.
DT/DE Grover Stewart, Colts: Patriots need to get bigger on the line to actually force teams into third downs. Reminds of Lawrence Guy in Baltimore at 6-4 and 333 pounds.
DT Kawann Short, Panthers: Now you’re talking some beef in the middle of the line.
TE Jared Cook, Saints: Maybe the second time is the charm in the Patriots’ pursuit?
TE Cameron Brate, Bucs: If he’s done taking paycuts, he’d be welcome here with open arms.
Edge Devon Kennard, Cardinals: If you’re looking for buying low on a guy with a lot of talent, this is it. Was never the same after Covid.
DE Carlos Dunlap, Seahawks: One of the more underrated players in the league would sure up one end.

COMPETITIVE (BUT AT PATRIOTS’ VALUATION)

TE C.J. Uzomah, Bengals
: Coming off a torn Achilles but was ready to pop at the time of the injury.
OLB Preston Smith, Packers: If he’s cut loose, there might be a bidding war and the Patriots will have their limit.
LB Jaylon Smith, Cowboys: Was in the wrong scheme last year and still has his best ball in front of him.
DT Akiem Hicks, Bears: Was a stud in Foxboro, New Orleans and Chicago. Time to bring him back home.
DT Sheldon Richardson, Browns: Likes his money and sometimes motivation is questioned, but when he’s right, he’s right.
WR DeSean Jackson, Eagles: Set to be released, Jackson seems to have matured a bit and can still make plays. Will be interesting to see if the Patriots think he fits in the locker room.
DT Shamar Stephen, Vikings: A very underrated player who would be excellent as a 3-4 DE.
WR Jamison Crowder, Jets: Very solid and professional receiver who would help, but he’s far from a No. 1.
DT Allen Bailey, Falcons: An excellent player in Kansas City who would be perfect for this scheme.
ILB Kenny Young, Rams: Young and athletic but not definite he’d take to this scheme so I’d proceed with a little caution.
DE Henry Anderson, Jets: Whether with Indy or the Jets, I’ve always liked this guy as a Richard Seymour-type. He would work very well here.

IF THE PLAYER LACKS SUITORS (AT VALUE ONE-YEAR, PROVE-IT DEAL)

LB Kwon Alexander, Saints
: Was traded last season from the 49ers and instantly was injured. Could be a diamond in the rough.
DT Malik Jackson, Eagles: Annually one of the most productive pass rushers in the league.
WR Marquise Goodwin, Eagles: Opt-out could be cut loose, and he still has good speed.
DT Jurrell Casey, Broncos: One of the best players in the league with the Titans still has a few years left of production.
WR Golden Tate, Giants: A dependable, veteran receiver who’s a gamer. Patriots don’t have enough of those.
WR Brandin Cooks, Texans: Has to be the least desirable six-time 1,000-yard receiver in NFL history. He’ll make the plays that are there, and none that are not.
TE Kyle Rudolph, Vikings: Solid two-way tight end but he’s pretty picky about his pay and where he would be going.
TE Jimmy Graham, Bears: I would certainly be open to have a tall red-zone threat on this team, even if he can’t block.
DT Danny Shelton, Lions: Run defense would instantly get better with his return.
QB Alex Smith, Washington: Hopefully he retires for his health, but a one-year deal with all sorts of incentives wouldn’t be the worst thing (see, I don’t hate Alex Smith).
LB Christian Jones, Lions: Matt Patricia gave him an extension in Detroit so you know he loves him, and he plays special teams.
DT Malcom Brown, Saints: Was always solid and nothing more. If he’s looking for a home …
TE Tyler Eifert, Jaguars: Tight end should be the new receivers in that expect a lot of looks at aging vets to see who has anything left.
WR Adam Humphries, Titans: After turning down the Patriots, you know Belichick would love to force him to take a one-year deal at minimum.
LB Benardrick McKinney, Texans: Houston overpaid him but he’d be perfect if the Patriots didn’t have Dont’a Hightower coming back.
WR John Brown, Bills: Chronic tease but a gamebreaker when healthy.
DE Jerry Hughes, Bills: Would be a typical cheap Patriots veteran pass rusher.
DE Emmanuel Ogbah, Dolphins: Showed he can play very well in this scheme.

Very nice info/speculation. Thanks chevss454
 

Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC


In terms of a player who may play as a pure slot in the NFL, St-Brown may be the best of them all. The traits St-Brown possesses showcase everything a team would in a slot receiver. The suddenness, vice-grip hands, and yards after the catch ability are terrific in the case of St-Brown. With football bloodlines, St-Brown is going to be a guy with his stock through the roof.

Related | USC wide receivers Vaughns and St. Brown have NFL potential in 2020

All of those traits are just the base of St. Brown’s game, however. He has elite body control and delightful ball skills in addition to that. If a team wrote up an ideal middle of the field target, St. Brown could be that guy. With those route-running skills, St. Brown threatens all directions of the field and all levels as well. This young man will hear his name called early in the 2021 NFL Draft, as he deserves.

Rondale Moore, Purdue


If I were to mesh Atwell and Waddle together, Moore is the guy you would somehow come out with. He is one of the most dangerous gadget players I have seen in recent memory, but he is a much more refined route runner than Atwell is at this stage. This is a guy that is a legitimate playmaker with the ball in his hands on manufactured touches, but he can torch the defense deep from the slot too.

It is Moore’s toughness through contact that makes him so special. He can put guys on skates, but he is a tough football player who will take the shots to make those tough catches over the middle of the catch. I think Moore still can project on the boundary at times, but from the slot with his speed, free releases, and manufactured touches, he could be devastating for defenses. All those come together to make one of the best slot receivers in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Elijah Moore, Ole Miss


Moore has a massive issue of being horrific against press coverage, and that is why he lands on this list easily. The hand-fighting just is not there with his light frame. However, what he does have working in his favor is smooth route running and quickness. From the slot where he will be aligned off the ball, Moore thrives in the Ole Miss offense.

Moore works against off-man coverage with ease. He is not the fastest guy out there, but he has great route deception and attacks leverage as well as anyone on this list. Moore routinely won using those skills, but also elite body control and awareness along the sideline. He will not shake guys out of their shoes after the catch, but he creates a lot of separation and does so reliably.

Ihmir Smith-Marsette, Iowa


Smith-Marsette is one of the most graceful route runners I can remember watching at the wide receiver position in a bit of time. He moves in the open with fluidity and crisp footwork. As a route runner, he has quick feet and loose hips, which allows him to run sharp routes and stems. He can get separation with those skills.

The real issue is when Smith-Marsette is contacted at the line of scrimmage and must fight through press coverage. He has not shown the strength to beat that just yet, even if he plays with a physical side to his game. Listen, Smith-Marsette is a playmaker with the ball in his hands and can make guys miss as well. At his size and with his physicality, playing in the slot and using his size and fluidity to create separation would be a perfect match for Smith-Marsette.

Tutu Atwell, Louisville


I am a firm believer that size does matter in the NFL, but Atwell is so, so talented that it may not in his case. At 5’9″, 175 pounds, Atwell carries a thin and less than compact frame at the moment. Make no mistake, this young man is a good football player, but those size limitations will hurt him no matter his role in the NFL.

Related | Tutu Atwell’s size pushes requirements for NFL

Atwell’s speed and shiftiness make him a potent gadget player. Expect offensive coordinators to heavily mix in Atwell on motions, jet sweeps, mesh plays, and misdirection because he is a threat with the football in his hands. Even with the light frame, his contact balance is elite. Still, he has some trouble fighting through contact and press coverage. Allowing him to face man coverage and get free releases with his speed and quick feet out of the slot would only benefit the talented receiver.

Shi Smith
Jaelon Darden
Kadarius Toney
Anthony Schwartz
Dazz Newsome
Thanks Chevss. This is excellent!
 
Carlos Dunlap is a very interesting possibility. There's a fit there you'd think with the Patriots.
Interesting that in that 2010 draft, BB picked his Florida team mate DE Jermaine Cunningham. BB picked the wrong Florida defensive end. :coffee: I knew it at the time. :coffee:

BB picked Cunningham with 53. He only lasted 3 years with the Pats. Then 3 weeks with the 9ers and then with the JETE but never played a single down after being cut by the Pats.
Bengals picked Dunlap with 54. He's 31 and still going strong.
 
Interesting that in that 2010 draft, BB picked his Florida team mate DE Jermaine Cunningham. BB picked the wrong Florida defensive end. :coffee: I knew it at the time. :coffee:

BB picked Cunningham with 53. He only lasted 3 years with the Pats. Then 3 weeks with the 9ers and then with the JETE but never played a single down after being cut by the Pats.
Bengals picked Dunlap with 54. He's 31 and still going strong.
If BB drafted Dunlap, he still would have left...similar to Chandler Jones. Money...
 
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