Rebuilding The Patriots For 2021 And Beyond

Jeff Howe gives his thoughts - the Athletic

My comments:
I'll add Fla. QB Kyle Trask to his list of QBs to draft. 6'5", 240. Drop back pocket presence++ with decent mobility. 2020 stats - 70% completion rate, 4125 yds, 11.6 AY/A, 43 TDs and only 5 ints. BB could trade back to around 20-25 and still get Trask while adding a late 2nd or early 3rd to boot.
WRs - Marvin Jones &/or Corey Davis would be perfect, thank you.
TE - Hunter Henry for sure. He'd help immensely.
Adding a TE & 2 WRs would do wonders for the offense.
LB - Lavonte David has been productive his entire career plus he can cover a back or a TE.
Of our own FAs, I'm not certain JMac will be back, at least not as a CB; maybe at S. I'd like to keep Byrd and James White.




By Jeff Howe Dec 28, 2020
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The best thing about 2020? There’s at least a sliver of hope it’ll turn to 2021.
That’s where the Patriots have set their focus, as the regular season will expire in a week and they can turn their attention toward the next phase of their rebuild.
So let’s do the same and make 10 bold predictions for the upcoming year. Due to the likelihood that many of these predictions won’t be worth the paper they’re printed on, this message will soon self-destruct. No receipts, please.

1. The Patriots will trade up to draft a quarterback and keep* Cam Newton​

Bill Belichick has publicly acknowledged the advantages of building a roster around a quarterback on a rookie contract, and there are four franchise-caliber talents who are projected top-10 picks.
Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence will likely be the No. 1 pick — too rich for the Patriots — and BYU’s Zach Wilson, Ohio State’s Justin Fields and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance will be gone shortly thereafter. It’ll most likely cost the Patriots at least a pair of first-round picks to get into range to select one of them.
That’s a price worth paying if there’s conviction behind their evaluation of the right quarterback, and the pace of their rebuild depends on it.
There’d be some value in keeping Newton on a short-money contract, especially if the Patriots boost the talent at tight end and wide receiver. If the Patriots trade up to draft a quarterback, they’re not going to want to also spend a significant chunk of cap space on a veteran, so keeping Newton would make some sense.
He’s good for the locker room and should be a solid mentor for a rookie. If the draft pick isn’t ready to start early in the season, Newton would be a serviceable placeholder.
(*I changed my mind three times while writing this section, could do so 10 more times depending how Jarrett Stidham is involved in the final two games and might do so hundreds more times prior to free agency.)

2. The Patriots will extend Stephon Gilmore’s contract and place a second-round tender on J.C. Jackson​

Gilmore is still playing at an extremely high level, but he’ll only earn $7.5 million in cash next season because the Patriots have accelerated future earnings to keep him competitively compensated over the past two seasons.
While Gilmore’s name has come up in trade conversations, the Patriots didn’t come close to dealing him because there was never an acceptable offer on the table, according to a source. The presumption is the Patriots wouldn’t move him for less than a first-round pick. Would their price actually come down in the next three months, and how much will the torn quad impact his fate?
Keeping Gilmore would therefore make the most sense. A two-year, $28.5 million extension would be fair value, rolling that into the balance of his current contract for a three-year, $36 million pact.
Jackson is a restricted free agent, and the Patriots would like to accumulate more picks, particularly under the premise that they’re willing to trade into the top 10 for a quarterback. The Patriots’ two options with Jackson would be to give him a first- or second-round tender, but it’s historically rare for an opposing team to sign away a restricted free agent at the cost of a first-round pick.
Therefore, use a second-round tender, and entice a team to sign Jackson to an offer sheet. That’s an affordable price for a corner with a budding reputation around the league, and the Patriots could use the second-round asset while replacing Jackson with Joejuan Williams or Myles Bryant. They could also re-sign Jason McCourty.

3. The Patriots’ two biggest splashes in free agency will be Hunter Henry and Lavonte David​

Henry will be the top tight end on the market, so he’ll require a contract worth an average annual value of at least $10 million. But Henry also probably got the memo this month that Belichick is infatuated with him.
The Patriots desperately need more production at tight end. Rookies Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene could still grow into solid pieces, but how long will it take? The Patriots can’t go a third consecutive year devoid of statistical output from the position, and Henry would be the answer.
David, a linebacker who turns 31 in January, has flown under the radar in Tampa but has been reliable and productive on all three downs throughout his career. If the Patriots can get him for $8-9 million annually, they can stick him in the middle of their defense with Dont’a Hightower and let Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings flourish alongside them.
The front seven would enjoy an immediate upgrade with David on the inside.

4. Josh Uche will become the Patriots’ top pass rusher​

This is an easy one.
Uche has made an impact with his increased role over the past month, and his trajectory should have a sharp ascension with a normal offseason. Chase Winovich has had a very good season as the Patriots’ best pass rusher, but Uche’s raw talent will shine once the Patriots remove his training wheels.

5. The Patriots will focus on the second tier of free-agent wide receivers​

It would be a surprise if the Patriots completely abandoned their philosophy on paying receivers just because they’ve got $60 million in projected cap space, the fourth-most in the NFL.
That’s why $14-18 million annually doesn’t add up for JuJu Smith-Schuster, Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay or Will Fuller. Rather, it’d make more sense to try to snare a pair of the next tier that includes Curtis Samuel, Marvin Jones, Sammy Watkins and Corey Davis.
If the Patriots can land two of them, somehow land one of the plethora of talented wideouts in the draft and combine them with Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers, the group would look much better.

6. The Patriots will re-sign Joe Thuney​

The Pats used the $14.8 million franchise tag on Thuney despite being tight against the cap because they hoped to extend him to a long-term contract. The two sides were never close to an extension before the deadline, nor were the Patriots close to trading him due to an absence of acceptable offers. They also weren’t going to just flip him to the highest bidder due to his value to the team, which played out tenfold as he hopped between left guard and center early in the season.
It’d be surprising if they didn’t continue to offer him a competitive contract. There are only 10 teams with at least $30 million in projected cap room, and it’s tough to envision most of them using a major chunk of it on an interior lineman. Maybe Washington or the Bengals makes a huge push, but Thuney would then have to decide between the fattest payday and an environment he knows best and is closer to achieving postseason success.
It’s unconventional for teams to devote so much cap space to guard, as Shaq Mason will carry a $9.775 million cap hit, but the Patriots can pull it off while their tackles are on rookie contracts.

1/2​

 
I hear you. It would be tough to look forward to.

But in 2020, I think Cam was like a $1.1 mil cap hit. Ryan Fitzpatrick was $8 mil.

I'd rather another year of Cam at that number than some $8 million schlub who will likely yield you similar results, record-wise.









Ugh... just shoot me.
Did you watch Fitzmagic play last year? He was actually good...not joking.
 
I hear you. It would be tough to look forward to.

But in 2020, I think Cam was like a $1.1 mil cap hit. Ryan Fitzpatrick was $8 mil.

I'd rather another year of Cam at that number than some $8 million schlub who will likely yield you similar results, record-wise.









Ugh... just shoot me.

I would, but I might need the bullet for myself.

Sure, 1.1M was a ridiculously low number for a QB and there are probably a few franchises out there where they would pat themselves on the poopoo over winning that
many for so cheap. Not here, though.

I'd rather we take a shot at fixing it this offseason than spend another year watching that painfully long windup and spastic no-look release followed by a post-game presser
where your team's leader looks like he's been staring into the abyss too long.

I respect Cam a lot for what he tried to do here, but I'd put the odds of him having a big year again at non-existent.
 
Yes, please.

Smith has improved steadily and can be an instant starter while we hope last year's rookies can do something of note.

I'd be willing to give him a reasonable chunk of change, too. Jonnu is entering his prime, so it seems like a no-brainer, but I don't
know anything about him as a person -- always a big deal for the Pats.

I haven't studied him as a blocker, but my impression is that he is a genuine two-way TE, which is fairly rare in the modern NFL. He can
catch, run and put the biscuit in the basket.
 
I do not hate this take.

I do. It is obvious Bill had no confidence in Stidham at all hence Cam getting signed on June 28 and starting every game despite looking awful in many of them especially late in the season when we were out of the playoffs and Bill still did not start him. He was not even dressing for the first few games of the season. I am not advocating releasing him as he is cheap to keep as a back-up but in no way should he be starting. We already threw away one season.
 
I do. It is obvious Bill had no confidence in Stidham at all hence Cam getting signed on June 28 and starting every game despite looking awful in many of them especially late in the season when we were out of the playoffs and Bill still did not start him. He was not even dressing for the first few games of the season. I am not advocating releasing him as he is cheap to keep as a back-up but in no way should he be starting. We already threw away one season.

I wouldn't mind seeing Stidham compete with a veteran QB and go through a complete off season with OTAs, mini camps and training camp. His 2nd year jump was curtailed after all.
2020 was simply a continuation of his rookie year. That's no way to begin a career in the NFL or to evaluate a player. Maybe he'll bomb again but maybe he'll rise to stardom. No one knows.
 
I wouldn't mind seeing Stidham compete with a veteran QB and go through a complete off season with OTAs, mini camps and training camp. His 2nd year jump was curtailed after all.
2020 was simply a continuation of his rookie year. That's no way to begin a career in the NFL or to evaluate a player. Maybe he'll bomb again but maybe he'll rise to stardom. No one knows.
It does not appear there will be much of an off-season this year unfortunately. No combine, no OTAs. Maybe a mini camp in June if things keep trending well with the virus cases but most see just a July TC. I have not heard about preseason games but given the 17 game season, I think if they do have then, there will only be 3.

I would like to see Stid have more of a normal off-season but the team really nose-dived on him when he did compete with Newton last year and many thought he had a real shot of beating Newton out but he cratered.
 
I wouldn't mind seeing Stidham compete with a veteran QB and go through a complete off season with OTAs, mini camps and training camp. His 2nd year jump was curtailed after all.
2020 was simply a continuation of his rookie year. That's no way to begin a career in the NFL or to evaluate a player. Maybe he'll bomb again but maybe he'll rise to stardom. No one knows.

I find this to be an entirely reasonable take, but we live in the era where the fans judge a guy without any context. It's the fantasy age and the
stat line is the only factor for many. All they see is 48 passes and 4 picks, not the unfair situations that tilted the scales in a negative direction. For instance,
last season Stidham made appearances in 4 of our biggest blowouts losses-- to SF, KC, Buffalo and the Rams in which we lost by a cumulative 121-28. It
would be hard for me to overstate just how dysfunctional our offense was during those games before he ever saw the field.

Stidham's stat line in those was 20 for 41 for 196 yards with 1 TD and 3 picks. His only other appearance was in our blowout win versus the Chargers.

If we can't make the money work to get a better veteran alternative or a top rookie, then I wouldn't hit the panic button if Stidham got the job.

I'd be nervous, but people would be wise to look at the situations he's been thrown into before deciding that he can't play.

Nobody should be shocked if Belichick doesn't sign or trade for one of the vets that are out there and elects to go with Stidham in 2021.
 
I find this to be an entirely reasonable take, but we live in the era where the fans judge a guy without any context. It's the fantasy age and the
stat line is the only factor for many. All they see is 48 passes and 4 picks, not the unfair situations that tilted the scales in a negative direction. For instance,
last season Stidham made appearances in 4 of our biggest blowouts losses-- to SF, KC, Buffalo and the Rams in which we lost by a cumulative 121-28. It
would be hard for me to overstate just how dysfunctional our offense was during those games before he ever saw the field.

Stidham's stat line in those was 20 for 41 for 196 yards with 1 TD and 3 picks. His only other appearance was in our blowout win versus the Chargers.

If we can't make the money work to get a better veteran alternative or a top rookie, then I wouldn't hit the panic button if Stidham got the job.

I'd be nervous, but people would be wise to look at the situations he's been thrown into before deciding that he can't play.

Nobody should be shocked if Belichick doesn't sign or trade for one of the vets that are out there and elects to go with Stidham in 2021.
Also consider that when Stidham was put in those games, the defense were coming after him every down due to the score.
 
It does not appear there will be much of an off-season this year unfortunately. No combine, no OTAs. Maybe a mini camp in June if things keep trending well with the virus cases but most see just a July TC. I have not heard about preseason games but given the 17 game season, I think if they do have then, there will only be 3.

I would like to see Stid have more of a normal off-season but the team really nose-dived on him when he did compete with Newton last year and many thought he had a real shot of beating Newton out but he cratered.

I haven't read OTAs have been cancelled and can't find anything with google that says that.
What I did find is "the NFL and the NFLPA will need to weigh the value of organized team activities (OTA) and minicamps, against the effort it would take to make them safe. The NFL is faced with another plan-as-you go offseason." IOW, the NFL hasn't decided yet. OTAs may well be held virtually. Minicamps come later. No decision has been announced by the NFL on either OTAs or minicamps yet.
My feeling is that in 2 months the players should be able to be vaccinated making preseason workouts safer and more feasible even for those refusing the vax. Only time will tell.
As of now, the Pats are working under the assumption that the draft & OTAs will be virtual and the rest of the preseason will be back to normal.
 
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