TylerD
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Thanks friend! Time will tell.
SUPER Wildcard Weekend Game Patriots @ Bills Gamete Thread - Saturday 8:15 PM
- Thread starter TommyD420
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TylerD
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That’s the winning spirit. You sound like me with the colts lol.
bmooney54
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Obviously, I hope they win. Hope in one hand and piss in the other and see which one fills up first.
TylerD
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That’s the beauty of the playoffs. You never know. Patriots can beat the Bills. I think they will
The Pats are capable of beating anyone in the AFC. They are also capable of losing to anyone.
I'll be damned if I am going to make a prediction for the playoffs.
I'll be damned if I am going to make a prediction for the playoffs.
HipKat
Buffalo to The Bone!!
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Dang... my thread wasn't good enough??
HipKat
Buffalo to The Bone!!
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That's not cold. I work in that every day in the winter!! lol
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Your thread is great. I even put it on the front page. But sometimes traditions and superstitions take hold and we needed a 'Gamete' thread too. There has been plenty of good discussion in both threads.Dang... my thread wasn't good enough??
Don't get my hopes up, sending those d bags and their obnoxious fans home would be a great start to the new year.
TylerD
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All good my man! Nothing much to say. Colts are a loser franchise. Is what it is. Always next year right. Been saying that for a decade now!
On the plus, I think the Pats have a really good shot at taking out Buffalo. Should be a very good competitive game.
Turnovers have been the downfall since the bye. When we get em we win. We got em in 1 game...the Jags...and didn't get em against the Bills, Colts and Dolphins.
Although we did have 2 possible ints right in our hands and floofed em both.
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OP
OP
The regression of Carson Wentz is absolutely astounding to me. I mean, it happens, just not usually from 'MVP Contender' to 'Jeff George'.
Big/Sky/Fly
370hssv vw6!s tu36v
Prince Harry?!?! He DOES look just like Wentz!
Yours is good for day after the game, but as UT said, there's some traditions around here. if Bills win Saturday I'll give the Bills support for you (Foxx I'll have to think aboutDang... my thread wasn't good enough??
)
spacecrime
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Except for that, though, what do you think of him?
Bummer about losing to the Jags and killing your season, but trust me, we understand. Been there, done that, keep watching it happen.....
Playoff first impressions: 23 thoughts on the Patriots' wild-card rubber match with the Bills
Mac Jones' throws outside the numbers and Josh Allen's scrambling ability will be critical in the Bills' and Patriots' third meeting.
theathletic.com
The Patriots and Bills will play Saturday night in Orchard Park in the first round of the playoffs. The game is the third between these two teams in the last six weeks. Here are 23 early thoughts on how this game will play out Saturday.
1. The Patriots have the depth to withstand Isaiah Wynn’s injury, but they’d prefer to have their starting left tackle healthy for this matchup, especially with the way Buffalo’s pass rush has turned a corner at the end of the season. During the Bills’ four-game winning streak to close out the season, they had 19 sacks and 65 pressures.
But 14 of those sacks and 30 of those pressures came in the last two weeks against the Falcons and Jets. The Patriots have a much better offensive line than either of those teams. This is a pass rush the Patriots need to respect, though. Pressure has been an issue for Mac Jones this season.
2. If Wynn can’t play, the Patriots have an interesting decision to make. They put Justin Herron at left tackle when Wynn got hurt Sunday, but the better adjustment might be putting Trent Brown at left tackle and Michael Onwenu at right tackle. The Patriots beat the Bills with physicality in the first matchup. Having both Brown and Onwenu on the field at tackle gives the Patriots their most imposing combination of offensive linemen in the running game.
3. Matthew Judon vs. Dion Dawkins was an advantage for Dawkins in Week 16. Dawkins wasn’t charged with a single pressure, according to Pro Football Focus, while Judon registered one pressure in the game. This matchup feels like it will be pivotal Saturday.
It’s worth noting that Judon had six pressures and a sack against the Bills in the divisional round a year ago as a member of the Ravens. He pressured the quarterback on 23 percent of his dropbacks in that game. He also had six pressures and 1.5 sacks a year earlier when the Ravens and Bills met in the regular season.
He has a track record of success against Buffalo, but the most recent meeting wasn’t Judon’s best showing. He’s one of the Patriots’ best and highest-paid players. He needs to play like it to give the Patriots a chance.
4. The Bills’ offensive line has played better toward the end of the season, allowing 19 total pressures and no sacks to the Falcons and Jets. They inserted Ryan Bates at left guard when Ike Boettger got injured against the Patriots in Week 16, and Bates has been a reliable player the last two weeks.
With Christian Barmore’s status for this game up in the air, the Patriots are going to need to get pressure from creative places to keep Josh Allen guessing. He crushed the Patriots in the last meeting by extending plays and averaging 3.18 seconds to throw. The Patriots didn’t sack him once in that game. Pressure is a start, but they need to finish plays.
5. Bill Belichick will need to have an answer for Allen and the Bills’ passing game early Saturday. The Patriots have been outscored by 37 points in the first half of their last three losses. The offense hasn’t helped, but the defense is getting beaten for early touchdowns, too.
The defense has a negative EPA in the first quarter this season and a positive EPA in every other quarter. The Patriots have allowed 33 percent of their touchdowns in the first quarter and have allowed an opposing quarterback rating over 100 in the first quarter and 70.3 or below in every other quarter. They can’t have a similarly slow start Saturday.
6. Belichick said third downs told the story of the last game between these two teams. The Bills were 6 of 12 on third down and 3 of 4 on fourth down, while the Patriots were 1 of 10 on third down and 5 of 6 on fourth down.
Allen and the Bills’ offense converted some crucial third-and-long situations in that game, and the Patriots opted for man coverage often in those situations. Allen did damage as a runner but also kept finding open receivers. It’s tough to find consistent answers against a quarterback like Allen, who has a deep group of receivers, but the Patriots need to mix up their looks and send occasional extra pressure to make Allen uncomfortable.
7. Myles Bryant had a tough day against Isaiah McKenzie in the last matchup. But as we outlined at the time, a lot of that had to do with the Patriots not adjusting their scheme to give Bryant more help. He was playing outside leverage with little help on the inside, and McKenzie kept running away from him on over routes. Yes, McKenzie is faster than Bryant and has the matchup advantage when Bryant is put in that situation. The Patriots have ways to counteract that, though.
McKenzie has also been out-snapped by Cole Beasley the last two weeks. Will Sean McDermott put McKenzie back in the spotlight given how he played a few weeks ago? New England would probably prefer a heavy dose of Beasley, though. The Patriots will have enough to worry about between containing Stefon Diggs and a healthy Gabriel Davis. They can’t exactly be scheming ways to take McKenzie out of the game, but they need to have a better plan than they did in Week 16.
8. If Davis is matched up against Jalen Mills, that could be a stress point for the Patriots’ defense. He’s played at least 80 percent of Buffalo’s snaps in each of the last four games and has 207 yards and three touchdowns on 16 catches. Those aren’t crazy numbers, but he’s become a favorite of Allen in the red zone.
He caught the Bills’ only touchdown the first time these two teams played. According to Pro Football Reference advanced stats, Mills has been the nearest defender in coverage on seven touchdowns this season.
9. The Patriots’ run defense has been an issue in recent weeks. The Dolphins rushed for 195 yards Sunday, and the Patriots have allowed over 110 yards on the ground in each of their last three losses. That’s significant only if the Bills can take advantage.
Devin Singletary has five rushing touchdowns in the last four weeks and notched his three highest carry totals of the season in that span. This has become Singletary’s backfield. New England slowed him down without much trouble in Week 16, but the Bills’ run-blocking has improved enough to where the Patriots need to respect that aspect of the offense.
10. More important than Singletary is what Allen does as a runner. He’s had his four highest rushing totals of the season in Buffalo’s last five games. He’s gone over 60 yards rushing in three straight games. He has a 20-yard run in five of his last six games and has six rushing touchdowns and 54 rushing first downs this season. At some point, the Bills became comfortable unleashing Allen as a runner again, and it has paid off.
11. It’s tough to find one metric that sums up defensive success, but splash plays are a good place to start. TruMedia defines splash plays as the sum of all sacks, tackles for loss, pressures that lead to a throwaway, run and pass stops for no gain, interceptions, forced fumbles, fumbles recovered, passes defended and third- and fourth-down stops. That’s every way the defense can have a negative impact on an offense.
Buffalo led the NFL with 398 splash plays this season. The Patriots were 18th in the NFL with 342 splash plays. The Bills were the NFL’s top-scoring defense, with the Patriots close behind at No. 2. But those splash plays are what can make a difference in close playoff games. That’s something the Patriots should be wary of against the Bills’ defense.
12. Buffalo’s defense hasn’t had a problem dealing with the loss of Tre’Davious White. Dane Jackson and Levi Wallace represent a significant drop-off in talent from White, but the way the Bills scheme and disguise coverage has kept their pass defense tough even without their All-Pro cornerback.
One thing working in the Patriots’ favor is that they have Nelson Agholor healthy for this game. He missed Week 16 with a concussion. Agholor is not a game-breaker. His production has been far from consistent this season. But he’s more effective than N’Keal Harry is. His speed is enough to create a few big plays and keep some of the defense’s attention off players like Kendrick Bourne, Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Henry.
13. Part of what makes Agholor valuable is what he can do outside the numbers. In Week 16, the Bills were content to play coverage that dared Jones to test the boundaries. He wasn’t able to make them respect that part of New England’s passing game. Against the Dolphins on Sunday, Jones had another interception when throwing outside the numbers. This chart gives you an idea of how Jones has struggled when throwing outside the numbers beyond 10 yards in the air.
(TruMedia)
14. If Jones isn’t going to be able to make things happen on the perimeter, the Patriots should lean into the strength of their passing game and make Henry a focal point. It may be time to get Jonnu Smith more involved, too. They paid big money for the two tight ends in the offseason, but the Bills managed to erase them in Week 16. Henry and Smith combined for one catch on six targets for 9 yards.
The Patriots haven’t used 12 personnel a ton this season. They’ve had 10 or more snaps in 12 personnel in only five games this season. Four of those games came in the first eight weeks of the season. Bills linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano are stars in coverage. And safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer are the lifeblood of Buffalo’s secondary. But the Patriots still need to put stress on them in the passing game at times to make life easier in the running game.
15. Why make the Bills respect the tight ends in the passing game? Well, the Bills have put eight or more defenders in the box to stop the run frequently against the Patriots this season. The Bills had at least eight defenders in the box on 69 percent of the Patriots’ runs in Week 14. The weather may have contributed, but the Bills put eight or more defenders in the box on 70 percent of the Patriots’ runs a few weeks later in Foxboro.
Only the Buccaneers sold out to stop New England’s running game more this season. That didn’t stop the Patriots from averaging 186 yards on the ground in two games against the Bills, but it’s clear the Bills want to force Jones to throw. If they can’t do it with game script as they did in the second meeting, they’ll keep stacking the box.
He caught the Bills’ only touchdown the first time these two teams played. According to Pro Football Reference advanced stats, Mills has been the nearest defender in coverage on seven touchdowns this season.
9. The Patriots’ run defense has been an issue in recent weeks. The Dolphins rushed for 195 yards Sunday, and the Patriots have allowed over 110 yards on the ground in each of their last three losses. That’s significant only if the Bills can take advantage.
Devin Singletary has five rushing touchdowns in the last four weeks and notched his three highest carry totals of the season in that span. This has become Singletary’s backfield. New England slowed him down without much trouble in Week 16, but the Bills’ run-blocking has improved enough to where the Patriots need to respect that aspect of the offense.
10. More important than Singletary is what Allen does as a runner. He’s had his four highest rushing totals of the season in Buffalo’s last five games. He’s gone over 60 yards rushing in three straight games. He has a 20-yard run in five of his last six games and has six rushing touchdowns and 54 rushing first downs this season. At some point, the Bills became comfortable unleashing Allen as a runner again, and it has paid off.
11. It’s tough to find one metric that sums up defensive success, but splash plays are a good place to start. TruMedia defines splash plays as the sum of all sacks, tackles for loss, pressures that lead to a throwaway, run and pass stops for no gain, interceptions, forced fumbles, fumbles recovered, passes defended and third- and fourth-down stops. That’s every way the defense can have a negative impact on an offense.
Buffalo led the NFL with 398 splash plays this season. The Patriots were 18th in the NFL with 342 splash plays. The Bills were the NFL’s top-scoring defense, with the Patriots close behind at No. 2. But those splash plays are what can make a difference in close playoff games. That’s something the Patriots should be wary of against the Bills’ defense.
12. Buffalo’s defense hasn’t had a problem dealing with the loss of Tre’Davious White. Dane Jackson and Levi Wallace represent a significant drop-off in talent from White, but the way the Bills scheme and disguise coverage has kept their pass defense tough even without their All-Pro cornerback.
One thing working in the Patriots’ favor is that they have Nelson Agholor healthy for this game. He missed Week 16 with a concussion. Agholor is not a game-breaker. His production has been far from consistent this season. But he’s more effective than N’Keal Harry is. His speed is enough to create a few big plays and keep some of the defense’s attention off players like Kendrick Bourne, Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Henry.
13. Part of what makes Agholor valuable is what he can do outside the numbers. In Week 16, the Bills were content to play coverage that dared Jones to test the boundaries. He wasn’t able to make them respect that part of New England’s passing game. Against the Dolphins on Sunday, Jones had another interception when throwing outside the numbers. This chart gives you an idea of how Jones has struggled when throwing outside the numbers beyond 10 yards in the air.
(TruMedia)
14. If Jones isn’t going to be able to make things happen on the perimeter, the Patriots should lean into the strength of their passing game and make Henry a focal point. It may be time to get Jonnu Smith more involved, too. They paid big money for the two tight ends in the offseason, but the Bills managed to erase them in Week 16. Henry and Smith combined for one catch on six targets for 9 yards.
The Patriots haven’t used 12 personnel a ton this season. They’ve had 10 or more snaps in 12 personnel in only five games this season. Four of those games came in the first eight weeks of the season. Bills linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano are stars in coverage. And safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer are the lifeblood of Buffalo’s secondary. But the Patriots still need to put stress on them in the passing game at times to make life easier in the running game.
15. Why make the Bills respect the tight ends in the passing game? Well, the Bills have put eight or more defenders in the box to stop the run frequently against the Patriots this season. The Bills had at least eight defenders in the box on 69 percent of the Patriots’ runs in Week 14. The weather may have contributed, but the Bills put eight or more defenders in the box on 70 percent of the Patriots’ runs a few weeks later in Foxboro.
Only the Buccaneers sold out to stop New England’s running game more this season. That didn’t stop the Patriots from averaging 186 yards on the ground in two games against the Bills, but it’s clear the Bills want to force Jones to throw. If they can’t do it with game script as they did in the second meeting, they’ll keep stacking the box.
lol, vintage rant, well done!TylerD said:
wentz reminds me of rg3 career wise. i was never impressed with either of them, though they each had that one great year. i mean, i wasn't impressed WHILE they were having that year. their success looked scheme/coaching manufactured to me.