16. One of the ways the Bills counteracted the Patriots’ use of six offensive linemen in Week 16 was to put Siran Neal on the field. He’s a bigger nickel cornerback than Taron Johnson and gave them a boost at the line of scrimmage. If the Patriots can find a way to get Neal matched up on Meyers, though, that would be an advantage. Neal played only 13 snaps in the last game, but those could be enough to find a big play when he’s out there.
17. Ed Oliver is starting to play up to his draft position at an opportune time for the Bills. He had 32 percent of his pressures in the Bills’ final four games of the season and 3.5 of his four sacks during that stretch. He also has four of his 11 tackles for loss against the run in the last month. He and Harrison Phillips have solidified the interior of Buffalo’s defense line. Pushing the Bills around up front isn’t as easy as it was in the middle of the year.
18. Because of the way the first matchup in Buffalo went, weather will be a topic all week. The forecast in Orchard Park calls for a 30 percent chance of snow, a low of 9 degrees and winds in the range of 10 miles per hour. Those aren’t as extreme conditions as the Patriots and Bills dealt with on “Monday Night Football” in early December.
The weather in Western New York can change quickly depending on how the wind blows off the lake, but regardless, it won’t be a balmy night. The worse the weather, the better it is for the Patriots.
19. Allen has played five games in his career where the temperature at kickoff was 31 degrees or colder. The Bills are 3-2 in those games, and Allen has a completion percentage of 50.3 percent with 883 yards, six touchdowns and seven interceptions. That doesn’t include the Monday night game against the Patriots when the temperature at kickoff was 36 degrees, or the playoff game against the Ravens a year ago when the temperature was 34 degrees.
Wind was a factor in both of those games, and Allen underwhelmed statistically. The weather will impact Jones, too, but the difference is the Bills lean on their passing game a lot more than the Patriots do. Allen is physically more well-equipped to handle poor conditions, but even the most talented quarterbacks struggle when the weather gets extreme.
20. It feels like special teams are going to play a role in this game. The Patriots finished the season with negative DVOA on special teams for the first time since 1994, according to Football Outsiders. They had another careless penalty on special teams against the Dolphins. They’ve dealt with every issue imaginable on special teams this season other than field goal kicking. Nick Folk has been solid.
But the Bills have had problems on special teams as well. Matt Haack shanked multiple punts against the Jets in the season finale. The team has also had a revolving door at the punt returner spot. For two teams that take special teams seriously in constructing their respective rosters, the Patriots and Bills have been a roller coaster in that area of the game. Don’t be surprised if a weird special-teams play swings this game.
21. In-game decisions from both coaches will be fascinating to watch. McDermott was aggressive on fourth down in Week 16 and allowed his team to dictate the terms of the game. The Bills were 3 of 4 on fourth down, and the Patriots broke tendency by going for it on fourth down six times and converting five of them.
After Belichick and his staff outmatched McDermott in the first meeting, McDermott had an effective counterpunch. His defensive game plan was sound, Brian Daboll called all the right shots on offense and it was the Bills, not the Patriots, who were the more composed team after the whistle. Coaching will make a difference in this game, as it often does in the postseason. Belichick will need a strong performance to make up for the gap in talent and playoff experience on the field.
22. On the injury front, the Patriots will be monitoring defensive back Kyle Dugger (hand) and linebacker Dont’a Hightower (knee) in addition to Barmore and Wynn. Dugger and Hightower didn’t make the trip to Miami. Dugger didn’t practice all week, while Hightower was limited.
23. The Patriots opened as four-point underdog. Psychologically, it feels like the pressure is on the Bills. They’ve had strong Super Bowl odds all season and went to the AFC Championship Game a year ago. They’re playing in front of their home crowd with sky high expectations. Those emotions can be a positive or a negative depending on how the team handles it.
The Patriots are entering the playoffs having lost three of their last four games. But their season could largely be viewed as a success given that they made the postseason with a rookie quarterback. A rookie quarterback has never made it to the Super Bowl, so the Patriots are fighting an uphill battle. They get to play as underdogs on the road. They’ve liked doing both this season.
17. Ed Oliver is starting to play up to his draft position at an opportune time for the Bills. He had 32 percent of his pressures in the Bills’ final four games of the season and 3.5 of his four sacks during that stretch. He also has four of his 11 tackles for loss against the run in the last month. He and Harrison Phillips have solidified the interior of Buffalo’s defense line. Pushing the Bills around up front isn’t as easy as it was in the middle of the year.
18. Because of the way the first matchup in Buffalo went, weather will be a topic all week. The forecast in Orchard Park calls for a 30 percent chance of snow, a low of 9 degrees and winds in the range of 10 miles per hour. Those aren’t as extreme conditions as the Patriots and Bills dealt with on “Monday Night Football” in early December.
The weather in Western New York can change quickly depending on how the wind blows off the lake, but regardless, it won’t be a balmy night. The worse the weather, the better it is for the Patriots.
19. Allen has played five games in his career where the temperature at kickoff was 31 degrees or colder. The Bills are 3-2 in those games, and Allen has a completion percentage of 50.3 percent with 883 yards, six touchdowns and seven interceptions. That doesn’t include the Monday night game against the Patriots when the temperature at kickoff was 36 degrees, or the playoff game against the Ravens a year ago when the temperature was 34 degrees.
Wind was a factor in both of those games, and Allen underwhelmed statistically. The weather will impact Jones, too, but the difference is the Bills lean on their passing game a lot more than the Patriots do. Allen is physically more well-equipped to handle poor conditions, but even the most talented quarterbacks struggle when the weather gets extreme.
20. It feels like special teams are going to play a role in this game. The Patriots finished the season with negative DVOA on special teams for the first time since 1994, according to Football Outsiders. They had another careless penalty on special teams against the Dolphins. They’ve dealt with every issue imaginable on special teams this season other than field goal kicking. Nick Folk has been solid.
But the Bills have had problems on special teams as well. Matt Haack shanked multiple punts against the Jets in the season finale. The team has also had a revolving door at the punt returner spot. For two teams that take special teams seriously in constructing their respective rosters, the Patriots and Bills have been a roller coaster in that area of the game. Don’t be surprised if a weird special-teams play swings this game.
21. In-game decisions from both coaches will be fascinating to watch. McDermott was aggressive on fourth down in Week 16 and allowed his team to dictate the terms of the game. The Bills were 3 of 4 on fourth down, and the Patriots broke tendency by going for it on fourth down six times and converting five of them.
After Belichick and his staff outmatched McDermott in the first meeting, McDermott had an effective counterpunch. His defensive game plan was sound, Brian Daboll called all the right shots on offense and it was the Bills, not the Patriots, who were the more composed team after the whistle. Coaching will make a difference in this game, as it often does in the postseason. Belichick will need a strong performance to make up for the gap in talent and playoff experience on the field.
22. On the injury front, the Patriots will be monitoring defensive back Kyle Dugger (hand) and linebacker Dont’a Hightower (knee) in addition to Barmore and Wynn. Dugger and Hightower didn’t make the trip to Miami. Dugger didn’t practice all week, while Hightower was limited.
23. The Patriots opened as four-point underdog. Psychologically, it feels like the pressure is on the Bills. They’ve had strong Super Bowl odds all season and went to the AFC Championship Game a year ago. They’re playing in front of their home crowd with sky high expectations. Those emotions can be a positive or a negative depending on how the team handles it.
The Patriots are entering the playoffs having lost three of their last four games. But their season could largely be viewed as a success given that they made the postseason with a rookie quarterback. A rookie quarterback has never made it to the Super Bowl, so the Patriots are fighting an uphill battle. They get to play as underdogs on the road. They’ve liked doing both this season.
