Poll: Donald Trump Now Leads Joe Biden in National Popular Vote
Michael Patrick Leahy4 Oct 2020
In this combination of file photos, former Vice President Joe Biden speaks in Wilmington, Del., on March 12, 2020, left, and President Donald Trump speaks at the White House in Washington on April 5, 2020. Early polling in the general election face-off between Trump and Biden bears out a gap …
AP Photo, File
President Donald Trump now leads Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden in the national popular vote by one point, according to the Sunday Express/Democracy Institute Poll released on Sunday.
The poll found that 46 percent of likely voters nationwide support Trump while 45 percent support Biden.
The poll of 1,500 likely voters was conducted between September 30 and October 2 and has a margin of error of 2.5 percent, which means the results indicate a statistical tie between Trump and Biden. The poll surveyed voters in the wake the first presidential debate between Trump and Biden on September 29. Trump announced that he tested positive for Chinese coronavirus in the early hours of Friday, October 2, the last day of the poll.
With four weeks and two days until the November 3, 2020, general election, the poll results provide encouraging news to the Trump campaign after the announcement early Friday morning that the president had been diagnosed with Chinese coronavirus and is currently hospitalized and being treated at Walter Reed Hospital.
The poll released by the same polling firm one month earlier on August 29 showed Trump with a three point lead over Biden, 48 percent to 45 percent, indicating a two point drop for Trump, though Biden’s support has not increased.
The Real Clear Politics Average of Polls, which does not include the Sunday Express/Democracy Institute Poll among polls included in its average, currently shows Biden with a 7.6 point lead over President Trump in the national popular vote.
An IBD/TIPP Poll released on Friday, which is included in the polling average, shows Biden with a three point lead over Trump in the national popular vote.
A Zogby Poll, released on Saturday, also excluded from the average, shows Biden with a two point lead over Trump in the national popular vote, within that poll’s margin of error.
The Sunday Express/Democracy Institute Poll released on Sunday found that 18 percent of Black voters support Trump, a significant increase from the eight percent who supported him in 2016.
Democracy Institute Director Patrick Basham called, “low support and enthusiasm” for Biden among Black voters the “Achilles’ Heel” of his campaign.
“To beat Trump, Biden needs nine in 10 Black votes, and lots of Black voters to cast ballots. Currently, he’s positioned to win only eight in ten, with two out of ten Black voters ready to support Trump, and overall Black turnout looking to be flat, at best,” Basham told the Sunday Express.
Trump performed well in several key battleground states.
In Florida, Trump leads Biden by four points, 48 percent to 44 percent, in the part of the poll conducted among 500 likely voters.
In Minnesota, Trump leads Biden by two points, 46 percent to 44 percent, in the part of the poll conducted among 450 likely voters in that state.
In New Hampshire, Trump leads Biden by two points, 45 percent to 43 percent, in the part of the poll conducted among 400 likely voters in that state.
The poll currently projects Trump is on track to win 320 Electoral College votes, compared to Biden’s 218, which is 50 electoral college votes more than the 270 Trump needs to win in 2020 to be re-elected.
At the national level, 61 percent of poll respondents believe Trump will be re-elected, while 39 percent believe he will not.
Thirty-two percent of poll respondents consider law and order the most important issue, followed by 30 percent who say it is jobs and the economy, and 15 percent who say it is the coronavirus pandemic, and another 15 percent who say it is education.
Twelve percent of poll respondents say that Trump’s nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court makes them more likely to vote for the president, nine percent say it makes them less likely, and 79 percent say it makes no difference.
Eighty-seven percent of Biden supporters said they were “comfortable with relatives, friends, coworkers knowing how you vote,” but only 22 percent of Trump supporters with the same.
Nineteen percent of poll respondents said Trump’s positive coronavirus test made them more likely to vote for the president, while 13 percent said it made them less likely to do so, and 68 percent said it made no difference.
The results of the Sunday Express/Democracy Institute Poll on the question of who won the September 29 presidential debate differed from those of most other polls.
When asked “Who won the TV debate?,” 32 percent of poll respondents said Trump, while 18 percent said Biden. Fifty percent of respondents said the debate was a draw.
Twenty percent of poll respondents said the debate made them more likely to support Trump, while eight percent said it made them more likely to support Biden. Seventy-two percent said it made no difference.
Friday’s IBD/TIPP Poll on that question, for instance, returned different top-line results on the question of “who won,” but found the debate switched more undecided voters to Trump than to Biden:
Registered voters who watched or listened to Tuesday’s debate thought Biden did better, 44%-33%. Independents saw Biden as the winner, 43%-20%. . .
After the debate, 19% of registered voters who watched said they switched their vote, with 11% backing Trump and 8% shifting to Biden. Nearly everyone who said they switched to Trump had voted for him in 2016. Half those who switched to Biden had voted for Clinton in 2016. The others included Trump voters, nonvoters and third-party voters.
The Zogby Poll released on Saturday did not ask which candidate “won” the first 2020 presidential debate.
However, John Zogby, director of the Zogby Poll, said:
Contrary to my own observations, it looks like the President has not been hurt by his debate performance nor his hospitalization. His 47% performance is actually one point higher than his vote percentage in 2016.
For now, he appears to have consolidated his base of Whites, parents, conservatives, men, and his own party’s voters.
Joe Biden looks as if he is on his way to doing the same with his base. His numbers among Hispanics are respectable but not quite at the 66%-67% he really needs. The same with Blacks. His 86% is better than our last poll but he needs to hit 90%, especially in those key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Georgia. His 60%-35% lead among young voters is about where he needs to be.
Polls after the first presidential debate in 2016 between Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and Republican candidate Donald Trump showed that Clinton “won” that debate over Trump by margins of as much as 30 percent.
But those first debate poll results had little impact on the outcome of the 2016 presidential election, in which Trump defeated Clinton in the Electoral College by 304 electoral college votes to 227 votes (with seven faithless electors), despite losing the popular vote by two points, 46 percent to 48 percent.
He had an opportunity to list all his accomplishments for minorities AND hammer Biden’s “you ain’t Black” and “racial jungle” and other pure insults he’s tossed around, not to mention his mentor and role model who’s eulogy he gave that was a KKK Grande Wizard, but he went full squirrel mode and lost track after 1 good achievement. Clean that up alone and he’ll swing many a voter with these next 2 debates.
I keep hearing the words what aboutism. This term appears to be made solely to stop someone from calling out hypocrisy. Example: Trump put kids in cages. So did Obama, where were you then. Stop with the what aboutism. By the way if congress would have put together an acceptable immigration plan, none of this would have happened. The legislative branch, not the executive branch. Because the legislators do not do the job they asked for, the executive is making decisions the people of America paid the legislators to do. Both parties are at fault. They spend more time blaming the other "team" than doing the job they campaigned for. Congresspeople should be required to spend the equivalent of a full time job in the state office when they are not in D.C. In the office, not getting lunch with the little people for a photo op. That is campaigning and should be done on your own time.
This is everything I feel EXACTLY, with the only difference being I did vote for him in 2016 as the lesser of two evils. Man I’m glad I stuck with that thought. And was I ever wrong in my initial thoughts of what Trump would be.
I Didn’t Vote For Trump In 2016, But I’d Crawl Over Broken Glass To Vote For Him Now
I don't care about the tone of his tweets nor if his opponents think he's rude. I've seen that he is a patriot who genuinely loves the United States of America and its people.
Even though I had voted for every Republican presidential candidate since 1980, I didn’t vote for Donald Trump in 2016.
Many Republican nominees had been huge disappointments to me, and I wasn’t going to vote for yet another GOP candidate I thought would betray my trust. I couldn’t imagine Trump as a genuine conservative who would champion limited government, respect individual freedom and liberty, and protect the unborn — but was I ever wrong. Although I didn’t vote for Trump in 2016, I would crawl over broken glass to vote for him in 2020.
In 2016, I was convinced Trump was just another New York liberal. On election night, however, I smiled. I was happy that at least Hillary Clinton wouldn’t be president, and I suspected that the next four years with Trump would at least be entertaining.
The primary reason I didn’t vote for Trump in 2016 was that I didn’t believe him. I didn’t trust that he would be pro-life, a non-negotiable issue for me. His bluster and bravado didn’t appeal to me. I took him literally but not seriously, in contrast to his supporters who took him seriously but not literally (credit to Peter Thiel for identifying this significant distinction).
By the time Trump took office, I was willing to give him a chance. He was the president, after all, and deserved the opportunity to prove himself. During the first year of his presidency, I was impressed by his commitment to keeping his campaign promises, unlike most politicians. By the end of 2017, I classified myself as a Trump supporter because of what he had already done as president.
Trump’s list of first-term accomplishments has been truly impressive:
Building the strongest U.S. economy in my lifetime through historic business and personal tax cuts, resulting in millions of jobs created and record-low unemployment
Cutting federal government regulations that had a stranglehold on American business innovators and entrepreneurs
Confronting China’s trade abuses and negotiating fair trade deals with Canada, Mexico, South Korea, and Japan
Eliminating the Obamacare individual mandate
Rebuilding our military through investments in our defense capabilities as well as securing the largest military pay raise in a decade
Nominating and confirming more solid conservative circuit court judges than any other first-term administration
Nominating and fighting for the confirmation of two originalists, Justices Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh, to the Supreme Court and then nominating Amy Coney Barrett to fill the vacancy left by the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg
Moving the U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem and then brokering the Abraham Accords peace deal between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain
Consistently fighting Democrats to build the wall to secure our southern border, reinforcing and repairing hundreds of miles, with more construction on the way
This is just a brief summary of the Trump administration’s accomplishments. In addition, Trump has been the most pro-life president in U.S. history. He has promoted a culture of life in his domestic policies, by supporting pro-life pregnancy centers, creating the Conscience and Religious Freedom Division, supporting health workers’ conscience rights, and working to defund Planned Parenthood.
Trump has upheld the same objectives in his foreign policies, such as through the Global Health Assistance Policy and by ending funding for the pro-abortion United Nations Population Fund. In January 2020, Trump became the first U.S. president to attend and address the March for Life.
The Trump administration’s accomplishments have been in spite of relentless, daily attacks by the mainstream media, which act as the Pravda-like arm of the Democratic Party. Trump Derangement Syndrome is evident every day on television and online.
Then as details about SpyGate were revealed in early 2018, I became a full-throated proponent of Trump, incensed that the Obama administration colluded with Clinton, the Democratic National Committee, and legacy media to weaponize the federal government intelligence and law enforcement agencies against an opposition party candidate and then a sitting president. When the Russian collusion hoax didn’t work, Trump’s enemies tried to take him down with fake impeachment charges over a legitimate phone call with a new Ukrainian administration.
As president, Trump has largely kept his promises and fought against relentless opposition. I don’t care about the tone of his tweets nor if his opponents think he’s rude. I’ve seen that he is a patriot who genuinely loves the United States of America and its people. I misjudged Trump in 2016, but I will do everything I can to see that he is re-elected in 2020 — and I’m sure I’m not the only one.
Follow David on Twitter and Parler: @SpyGateIsReal.
Today, backing the president is downright risky. People are losing their jobs, children are being kicked out of class and businesses are boycotted because their owners support President Trump. Imagine.
Hitting back at the Democrats' assault on Candidate Trump in 2016, I wrote a piece for the Fiscal Times titled: “Five Reasons a Sane Person Might Still Vote for Trump.” The arguments I highlighted hold up well, and are perhaps even more persuasive today.
First up: Education.
If you believe in equal opportunity, you want all youngsters to receive a decent education. In many Democrat-led cities, Hispanic and African-American kids do not receive one.
And yet the teachers' unions and their Democratic Party backers refuse all accountability or reforms, condemning millions of Black and brown children to second-class status.
New York City spends $28,808 per public school pupil but in 2019 only 28% of black kids were proficient in math and 35% made the cut in English.
That is unacceptable, but Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden would respond by handing even more funds over to his union pals and supporting the status quo.
Why? Because he needs money from the National Education Association and the American Federation of Teachers, two of our nation’s largest political donors.
In the past year alone, those two unions spent $25 million on political campaigns, 94% going to Democrats. That doesn’t include the invaluable in-kind contribution of millions of teachers being sent door-to-door signing up Democrat voters and getting them to the polls.
President Trump has championed school choice, which is overwhelmingly popular across the nation. A recent RealClear Opinion Research poll showed 77 percent of voters approve of families being allowed to use their tax dollars for a school that works for them, including 69% of Black respondents.
Bottom line: if politicians actually care about improving the fortunes and opportunities for Blacks and Hispanics, they need to back school choice. Only Trump can deliver on this essential issue.
Next up: ObamaCare.
Democrats have put this failed insurance program on the ballot, and it should be. While Biden tries to scare people by saying the Trump White House will remove protections for people with preexisting conditions, which is not true, they neglect to mention that the cost of insurance premiums under ObamaCare for people not receiving subsidies doubled between 2013 and 2017, making it unaffordable to millions.
The Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services gives this example: “a 60-year old couple in Grand Island, Nebraska making $70,000 a year—which is just slightly too much to qualify for Obamacare’s premium subsidy—is faced with paying $38,000, over half of their yearly income, to buy a silver plan with an $11,100 annual maximum out-of-pocket limit.” The numbers simply don’t work. Thank Obamacare for the Rise of the Uninsured | CMS
The Trump administration wants to increase the number of people covered by allowing less expensive private short-term plans and permitting groups to form their own Association Health Plans. The president is also combatting rising healthcare costs by issuing an executive order mandating price transparency, which the medical community opposes.
ObamaCare helped some people but it was also seriously flawed. It needs to be fixed, and augmented with more private options, which is Trump’s ambition. Someone should ask Biden: if the ACA is so terrific, why do so many Democrats want to replace it with “Medicare-for-all”?
Next: The economy.
As we emerge from a sharp recession, Trump’s continued embrace of lower taxes and light regulation, and insistence on better trade deals for American workers, will inspire business investment and expansion, and fuel more job creation.
That’s what happened in 2016; the minute the president was elected, both business and consumer optimism spiked, pushing our then-lethargic economy into overdrive.
The upshot was a hiring spree that drove wages higher at the fastest clip in a decade, and allowed people to climb the ladder of opportunity. Last year incomes rose 6.8% as a result of higher pay, but also because, as the JOLTS reports show, people had the confidence to quit and take better-paying jobs.
This will happen again. Activity has rebounded faster in recent months than economists expected, even as much of the country has been locked down, and the outlook is for more growth in 2021.
Biden’s prescription of sharply higher taxes, especially on the investor class, would reverse this momentum. As would his promised reentry into the Paris Climate Accord and vow to eliminate fossil fuels. These hare-brained policies will stifle growth and should be rejected.
Next up: Dissatisfaction with government
Americans do not want a bigger federal government. In 2016, Gallup asked, “In general, do you think there is too much, too little or about the right amount of government regulation of business and industry?” At the time, 47% responded “too much”, 22% said too little and 27% said “the right amount.”
Today, thanks to Trump’s efforts to reduce the regulatory burden on small business owners and individuals, only 36% say we are over-regulated, and 36% think we have the “right amount of oversight.
That’s called progress.
Finally, the Supreme Court.
The last issue I cited in 2016 as directing my vote was the Supreme Court. I wrote that those believing in free markets and limited government needed to support a president dedicated to appointing justices to the Supreme Court and judges to other courts who would protect our constitution.
Trump has outperformed expectations on this front, and the addition of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court will be another bulwark against judicial activism and increased federal power.
These five reasons to vote for Trump remain critical in 2020. His many accomplishments – bringing hostages home, revised trade deals, taking on China, rebuilding the military, tightening our borders, the blockbuster Middle East peace initiative -- and the near-insanity of the left, make the choice even easier.
Thousands of Americans welcomed President Trump when he arrived for a fundraiser in Newport Beach, California, on Sunday afternoon.
White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany tweeted video footage of the massive crowds lining the streets, writing, “Thousands upon thousands lined for miles along our motorcade route in CALIFORNIA to cheer on President @realDonaldTrump!!!!!”:
Veteran actor James Woods also shared video of cheering people waving American flags, Trump 2020 flags, and signs as the president’s motorcade drove by:
Another Twitter user posted video footage taken from the street and said she saw President Trump waving at them from inside his vehicle.
“I have never seen anything like this in CA and I’ve lived here my whole life! The MAGA crowd is pretty amazing. Met some very cool people today!” she wrote:
The president’s supporters “significantly outnumbered” protesters at the event, according to CBS Los Angeles.
“The American people love President Trump,” one attendee told the outlet. “And when you look down the street, you can see it. We love our president.”
The president shared video footage of his Newport Beach supporters Sunday afternoon and thanked them for the warm welcome:
After winning his battle against the coronavirus, Trump has returned to the campaign trail “with a vengeance,” writes Breitbart News’s Charlie Spiering.
“The president did not show signs of losing his voice or his signature energy despite participating in a dozen public speaking events and a handful of fundraisers in the past week,” the article said.
During a rally in Sanford, Florida, on October 12, the president told the crowd he was “energized by your prayers and humbled by your support.”
“We’ve had such incredible support and here we are. Here we are. But we’re going to finish. We’re going to make this country greater than ever before,” he continued.
President Trump will hold a rally in Prescott, Arizona, on Monday evening before he returns to the White House.