The 2021 Draft- We Need This One

Yeah just wait. Mac Jones' stock is all over the place but has been trending up for the past 6 weeks. I see Mac Jones as an efficient ball distributor. He has a good enough arm to throw folks open on short to intermediate routes and he's accurate enough to avoid ints very well. He's not a guy who will throw GO routes or deep posts so if that's what you want it's time to move on. If you want a guy who is athletic enough to pull it down to avoid a sack and then throw on the run, he's not your guy there either so move again.

Chris Simms is mostly an idiot but he's predicted the QB rankings of the last 3 drafts pretty damn well. By his admission, he chooses his rankings primarily based on "attributes that are translatable to the NFL" and not on wins or arm strength which he says are big myths overblown by social media.
These are his QB rankings the last 3 drafts. I remember his Lamar Jackson pick for #1 and I laughed at it. Then LJ comes out and plays like a wild man. Josh Allen ahead of Mayfield? Yeah, looks right now, doesn't it.

EvkWUErVEAQNOaI


Ok so where am I going with this?
Here

View: https://twitter.com/CSimmsQB/status/1367121407075897346

Anyone want to weigh in on BB's potential interest in Kellen Mond? Asking for a friend who wants to know who BB's outlier QB pick is going to be.

and here - this is absolutely worth a listen
View: https://www.nbcsports.com/video/byus-zach-wilson-clemsons-trevor-lawrence-top-2021-nfl-draft-qb-rankings?ls=pftvod


Super interesting post.

Who knew Chris Simms had any sort of intelligence or insight until now? Not me, certainly.

The Josh Allen over Mayfield prediction wasn't bad because I recall some analysis prior to the draft that no Mountain West QB had ever done a thing in the NFL, nevermind that his
completion pct. was only something like 55% there. Then he starts throwing picks and looking overmatched in Buffalo and I figured he was all done. And then he
starts getting it. His future couldn't look much brighter. Hell of a call, but I still like Baker plenty.

Far as Kellen Mond goes, my problem with him is that I watched A&M a few times in 2019 and Mond just looked awful. He was consistently inept/incaccurate throwing the ball, but a pretty good runner. So, near the end of 2020 I'm watching A&M and I was having mental conflicts because Kellen didn't really look like the same guy, yet my confirmation bias kept wanting to see him looking bad. He refused to cooperate. I pretty much went through the same thing with Jalen Hurts after he left Alabama for Oklahoma and he looked far better in Philly than I expected. So far. Both played much better during their last year in college. I'd call them comparable players and as I said it's a copycat league. Somebody will want Mond.

Maybe it'll be Bill, but I can't quite forget 2019. I don't know if he is the answer.
 
Evan Lazar packs a lot of informative thoughts in this article that discusses the draft and FA fits.
Yeah, he talks about Mond, too.

 
The Steelers had a ten year run or so of some great drafting at the WR position.
And little to show for it.

WR is a luxury position. Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, AJ Green - these guys don't have rings. And no one ever says that they want to join a team because they want to play next to some WR.
 
And little to show for it.

WR is a luxury position. Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, AJ Green - these guys don't have rings. And no one ever says that they want to join a team because they want to play next to some WR.

Absolutely. A top five or maybe even ten paid WR is a waste of resources. The guys you listed are great examples. It is imperative though to hit on some mid round guys at the position and the Steelers did that with AB, and guys like Emanuel Sanders. They were able to keep guys in the pipeline and good number 2 options to go along with Santonio, Wallace, and AB when he took over.

With the domination of the Pats the last 20 years, a lot of AFC teams don’t have much to show despite some good drafting.
 
And little to show for it.

WR is a luxury position. Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, AJ Green - these guys don't have rings. And no one ever says that they want to join a team because they want to play next to some WR.

I'll partially agree with you, but think it's more of an overrated thing than a luxury. If you happen to have a top WR then he can be taken away by a good defense with
scheme/double teams, but that creates opportunity elsewhere. In short, I think it is more important to have several capable receivers than a superstar and then a dropoff.

One of the more surprising things about the Pats last season was that we didn't give opponents any reason to double any of our receivers and teams stacked the box
with 8 guys regularly and we still ran the ball very effectively. Next year is a whole different scenario and the chemistry/personnel in the run game will likely be
different, but I can't help thinking what we could accomplish with one or two viable receivers to keep teams from stepping up.

I keep hearing that our personnel sucks and it'll take years to rebuild, blah, blah, blah, but I don't really believe we are that far away or can't compete without a superstar
QB.
 
And little to show for it.

WR is a luxury position. Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, AJ Green - these guys don't have rings. And no one ever says that they want to join a team because they want to play next to some WR.
Well, you do kinda need them though...unless you have someone who can catch a ball and not fumble it. :coffee:
 
I'll partially agree with you, but think it's more of an overrated thing than a luxury. If you happen to have a top WR then he can be taken away by a good defense with
scheme/double teams, but that creates opportunity elsewhere. In short, I think it is more important to have several capable receivers than a superstar and then a dropoff.

One of the more surprising things about the Pats last season was that we didn't give opponents any reason to double any of our receivers and teams stacked the box
with 8 guys regularly and we still ran the ball very effectively. Next year is a whole different scenario and the chemistry/personnel in the run game will likely be
different, but I can't help thinking what we could accomplish with one or two viable receivers to keep teams from stepping up.

I keep hearing that our personnel sucks and it'll take years to rebuild, blah, blah, blah, but I don't really believe we are that far away or can't compete without a superstar
QB.
That's why you need more than one of them...

I agree with having a good/great draft+a good/great FA = putting the Pats back into the thick of things (playoffs and further). It's imperative. It's not impossible either...
 
And little to show for it.

WR is a luxury position. Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, AJ Green - these guys don't have rings. And no one ever says that they want to join a team because they want to play next to some WR.
I do agree that you don't have to use your top draft picks for them...yes! But, when the draft gives you value, don't overlook a good option. The Steelers are among the best team(s) that do hit on their WR draft picks. There's no denying that.

I'm pretty sure that we're on the same page. Most of us here are...we just have to get BB to listen to us more! ;)
 
I do agree that you don't have to use your top draft picks for them...yes! But, when the draft gives you value, don't overlook a good option. The Steelers are among the best team(s) that do hit on their WR draft picks. There's no denying that.

I'm pretty sure that we're on the same page. Most of us here are...we just have to get BB to listen to us more! ;)

Yes, capable wide receivers and tight ends are important. However, it's not a position that is difficult to master - you can take a former lacrosse player and turn him into a two-time Super Bowl champion. Or you can take a former Kent State QB and turn him into the person who is second all-time in playoff receptions, with three Super Bowl rings.

Why, there's even a non-Patriots team that took a former basketball player and turned him into that franchise's all-time leader in receptions, reception yards, and reception TDs. At the TE position.

So sure, if there's good value to be had when it's time to make a draft pick or spend money on a free agent, then take the value. But don't reach for a WR - good QBs make NFL-average WRs look great. Great WRs can't elevate average NFL QBs.
 
Yes, capable wide receivers and tight ends are important. However, it's not a position that is difficult to master - you can take a former lacrosse player and turn him into a two-time Super Bowl champion. Or you can take a former Kent State QB and turn him into the person who is second all-time in playoff receptions, with three Super Bowl rings.

Why, there's even a non-Patriots team that took a former basketball player and turned him into that franchise's all-time leader in receptions, reception yards, and reception TDs. At the TE position.

So sure, if there's good value to be had when it's time to make a draft pick or spend money on a free agent, then take the value. But don't reach for a WR - good QBs make NFL-average WRs look great. Great WRs can't elevate average NFL QBs.
Yup...power forward's can translate to TE's fairly well...I know that a few rugby and wrestling stars can translate as well. Edelman was a QB in college. Yup. Peterman was a wrestler. Agreed. BB tried to sign the Ohio State Buckeye QB as a WR. He never offered him enough, He was drafted as a Raider. He played for the Browns and Redskins.

Lamar Jackson would be the ultimate Taysom Hill. He isn't tall like Taysom, but, way more elusive. IMO, Jackson is NOT a Qb. He is a Swiss Army Knife. He is the ULTIMATE situational football player. Hill and also sCam would be amazing Swiss Army Knives as well. I don't think that BB used sCam to his full abilities.
 
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The football players that are tweeners (or more), are the ultimate players. They have more than one fit. They have more than one value. The freaks. The CB's who are 6'4" that could be safeties. The SS's that could be coverage linebackers. The RB's that can catch and also be slot receivers. The TE's that can be WR's. You could even go as far as the kickers or punters who can be QB's...

IMO, these players have WAY more value than the fixed players.
 
I'll partially agree with you, but think it's more of an overrated thing than a luxury. If you happen to have a top WR then he can be taken away by a good defense with
scheme/double teams, but that creates opportunity elsewhere. In short, I think it is more important to have several capable receivers than a superstar and then a dropoff.

One of the more surprising things about the Pats last season was that we didn't give opponents any reason to double any of our receivers and teams stacked the box
with 8 guys regularly and we still ran the ball very effectively. Next year is a whole different scenario and the chemistry/personnel in the run game will likely be
different, but I can't help thinking what we could accomplish with one or two viable receivers to keep teams from stepping up.

I keep hearing that our personnel sucks and it'll take years to rebuild, blah, blah, blah, but I don't really believe we are that far away or can't compete without a superstar
QB.
GM 101.
BB knew that going into the Giants' SB with Moss and Welker. We saw it happen and it wasn't pretty.
Give me 2 guys who fit into tier 2 and 1 guy who fits into tier 3 over a Julio any day of the week.
 
GM 101.
BB knew that going into the Giants' SB with Moss and Welker. We saw it happen and it wasn't pretty.
Give me 2 guys who fit into tier 2 and 1 guy who fits into tier 3 over a Julio any day of the week.


Going into this season, I'm thinking Edelman will be back and productive. Likely diminished, but still making plays and forcing
a defense to pay attention to him. Jakoby Meyers is a solid 3 and I expect him to continue to improve. He was pretty damn good
last year and there were times when he was it He should benefit from better talent around him. I expect zero from Harry,
but it's possible that he becomes useful. I'll call it a longshot.

We need a playmaker with speed on the outside and a capable TE who can catch on 3rd down. Oh, and also a QB who is better than Cam Newton.

I expect all of those things are realistic goals, if not a lock, with TE being the position least likely to be addressed.
 
Going into this season, I'm thinking Edelman will be back and productive. Likely diminished, but still making plays and forcing
a defense to pay attention to him. Jakoby Meyers is a solid 3 and I expect him to continue to improve. He was pretty damn good
last year and there were times when he was it He should benefit from better talent around him. I expect zero from Harry,
but it's possible that he becomes useful. I'll call it a longshot.

We need a playmaker with speed on the outside and a capable TE who can catch on 3rd down. Oh, and also a QB who is better than Cam Newton.

I expect all of those things are realistic goals, if not a lock, with TE being the position least likely to be addressed.
Very realistic at a minimum.

I'll continue to be concerned about JE11 until I see him in uniform and running.
 
What are we supposed to make of these crazy numbers coming out of these training house "combines" or "showcases" whatever they call them these days.

Brandon Marshall's House of Athletes, a draftee/athlete training facility in Fla., ran a "showcase" on March 5. H of A wants their guys to do well.

GA CB Eric Stokes ran a 4.25 40 at 6'1", 185 (wt not confirmed from what I saw). That's faster than Deion Sanders! That would be the 3rd fastest time ever for the nfl combine.
Only 1 timing device and his time is "unofficial". He foot faulted on his 2nd run.

So what are we to believe? No oversight. Only 1 timing device. He only ran it once. Stokes said afterwards he's been training for weeks just for the 40. His 1st training runs were in the 4.5s. Last week he was running in the high 4.3s by his own admission. No one asked him how much weight he lost from playing weight to get into track shape. He was a track star in HS.
I don't believe it. It's too easy to fudge.

I don't know how teams are going evaluate these showcases and then translate them to the draft. Actual Pro Days may be run better with greater oversight but Pro Days are limited and most of them won't be televised.
Personally, I'm adding 0.10 to all the stopwatch events from H of A. Teams will probably do similar.
What about the bad times (and there were a few)? I'm adding a tenth to them, too, and now they're really bad.
 
Here's PFF's analytics draft. Positional values count in this draft. This one is by the numbers only - there's no gut feeling or falling in love with a player - which automatically makes it unrealistic. That potentially makes it even more interesting to me. Trades are allowed.


The mock draft you love to hate is back. This collection of 32 picks, along with their accompanying trades, represents the selections we would make at each position, leaning on our college-to-pro projections and all of the film study and analysis that goes into creating PFF’s Big Board and Draft Guide.

Unlike our initial mock last season, we incorporated trades that made sense for both sides and added some necessary spice, as well as evolved on some notions we ignored last year, including the value of interior defensive linemen. Some claim the perfect mock is impossible. They were wrong. Enjoy!
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At 3, Miami trades Tua and pick 3 + some change to Houston for Deshaun Watson.
At 15, the Pats trade 15 to Houston for Tua.

Yeah. Screw this. I hate it.
 
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