The 2021 Draft- We Need This One

Share this page

Hawg73 said:
Yup. Patrick Surtain, Assante Samuel, Lorenzo Neal Jr. and Jaycee Horn is former Saints WR Joe's son.

Next year we get Darryl Stingley's grandson, Derek.
Click to expand...

Horn is a really impressive player. He's my #1 CB in this draft by a country mile.
 
chevss454 said:
A study of the NFL draft with some interesting conclusions.


The Loser's Curse: Decision Making and Market Efficiency in the National Football League
DraftAbstract
A question of increasing interest to researchers in a variety of fields is whether the biases found in judgmentand decision-making research remain present in contexts in which experienced participants face strongeconomic incentives. To investigate this question, we analyze the decision making of National FootballLeague teams during their annual player draft. This is a domain in which monetary stakes are exceedingly highand the opportunities for learning are rich. It is also a domain in which multiple psychological factors suggestthat teams may overvalue the chance to pick early in the draft. Using archival data on draft-day trades, playerperformance, and compensation, we compare the market value of draft picks with the surplus value to teamsprovided by the drafted players. We find that top draft picks are significantly overvalued in a manner that is inconsistent with rational expectations and efficient markets, and consistent with psychological research.
=======================================
1. High picks are overvalued
2. Lower picks are undervalued
3. It's almost always best to trade back when looking for value.
4. The Draft Value Chart the NFL uses gives far too much value to high picks and not enough value to lower picks.
5. Biases of those who do the drafting interfere with getting picks right.
Click to expand...


So, I finally finished this link and it is not a simple read, but was worth the effort and I thank you for posting it.

I'm involved in a book club with some friends and am currently reading Michael Lewis' (Moneyball, The Blind Side) The Undoing Project, which is based on two Israeli clinical psychologists who have done groundbreaking work in the science of human decision making and it is very illuminating stuff. The paper you linked above credits those same guys, Amos Tversky and Danny Kahnemann as major influences and that got my attention. They are basically considered giants in intellectual and business circles, but the lessons apply to medicine, sports, etc., etc. All aspects of life.

Basically, they have determined that people's perceptions are highly flawed and it causes a lot of costly, terrible major decisions due to human beings being human beings. It gets pretty deep. The Undoing Project starts off talking about the NBA draft and how teams must invest massive sums in guys that might not amount to anything and how processes can be developed to improve their odds, which is the exact same thing as the NFL draft. Lewis told a hilarious story about a team interviewing a potential high NBA pick and asked him if he'd be willing to take a drug test. The guy's eyes got big and he nervously responded "What? You mean TODAY?" Do you think that team was willing to invest huge money in that kid?

It's hard to explain why, but I'd be willing to bet that Belichick has read Tversky and Kahnemann's stuff and also The Loser's Curse, which I believe was influenced by the Patriots draft methods. We're seeing a gradual shift in the draft landscape and more teams are clued in than there used to be, but there are still those franchises that'll make massive blunders for reasons that they themselves don't understand until it's too late to do anything about it.
 
Hawg73 said:
So, I finally finished this link and it is not a simple read, but was worth the effort and I thank you for posting it.

I'm involved in a book club with some friends and am currently reading Michael Lewis' (Moneyball, The Blind Side) The Undoing Project, which is based on two Israeli clinical psychologists who have done groundbreaking work in the science of human decision making and it is very illuminating stuff. The paper you linked above credits those same guys, Amos Tversky and Danny Kahnemann as major influences and that got my attention. They are basically considered giants in intellectual and business circles, but the lessons apply to medicine, sports, etc., etc. All aspects of life.

Basically, they have determined that people's perceptions are highly flawed and it causes a lot of costly, terrible major decisions due to human beings being human beings. It gets pretty deep. The Undoing Project starts off talking about the NBA draft and how teams must invest massive sums in guys that might not amount to anything and how processes can be developed to improve their odds, which is the exact same thing as the NFL draft. Lewis told a hilarious story about a team interviewing a potential high NBA pick and asked him if he'd be willing to take a drug test. The guy's eyes got big and he nervously responded "What? You mean TODAY?" Do you think that team was willing to invest huge money in that kid?

It's hard to explain why, but I'd be willing to bet that Belichick has read Tversky and Kahnemann's stuff and also The Loser's Curse, which I believe was influenced by the Patriots draft methods. We're seeing a gradual shift in the draft landscape and more teams are clued in than there used to be, but there are still those franchises that'll make massive blunders for reasons that they themselves don't understand until it's too late to do anything about it.
Click to expand...
I wonder if these theories could be applied to poker?

There are definitely mathematical theories used in Texas Hold 'Em but emotional decision making does sometimes get in the way. Also, players need to factor in opponent tendencies and position on the table. Variance will happen but ideally, poker players want to avoid situations where the Expected Value is negative
 
Hawg73 said:
So, I finally finished this link and it is not a simple read, but was worth the effort and I thank you for posting it.

I'm involved in a book club with some friends and am currently reading Michael Lewis' (Moneyball, The Blind Side) The Undoing Project, which is based on two Israeli clinical psychologists who have done groundbreaking work in the science of human decision making and it is very illuminating stuff. The paper you linked above credits those same guys, Amos Tversky and Danny Kahnemann as major influences and that got my attention. They are basically considered giants in intellectual and business circles, but the lessons apply to medicine, sports, etc., etc. All aspects of life.

Basically, they have determined that people's perceptions are highly flawed and it causes a lot of costly, terrible major decisions due to human beings being human beings. It gets pretty deep. The Undoing Project starts off talking about the NBA draft and how teams must invest massive sums in guys that might not amount to anything and how processes can be developed to improve their odds, which is the exact same thing as the NFL draft. Lewis told a hilarious story about a team interviewing a potential high NBA pick and asked him if he'd be willing to take a drug test. The guy's eyes got big and he nervously responded "What? You mean TODAY?" Do you think that team was willing to invest huge money in that kid?

It's hard to explain why, but I'd be willing to bet that Belichick has read Tversky and Kahnemann's stuff and also The Loser's Curse, which I believe was influenced by the Patriots draft methods. We're seeing a gradual shift in the draft landscape and more teams are clued in than there used to be, but there are still those franchises that'll make massive blunders for reasons that they themselves don't understand until it's too late to do anything about it.
Click to expand...

Glad you enjoyed it. I thought it was important, too.
It's all about due diligence and when you think you know all you need to know, go deeper and learn more about a guy's family, his past, his habits, his quirks, his dark secrets...everything about him as a person. Never rest thinking you know enough because you never do. And never fall in love with a guy so much that you don't do your due diligence or pick him over a better prospect because of personal bias. I've heard many times that BB is really good at learning a guy from a short 20 minute interview by asking the right questions and watching a guy while he responds.
 
The newest mock draft tracker has the Pats taking any number of players. If nothing else, it shows that no one has a clue what BB would like to do.

www.patriots.com

2021 Patriots Mock Draft Tracker

Our staff has compiled what the top 'experts' are predicting the New England Patriots will do in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft.
www.patriots.com www.patriots.com
 
patfan64 said:
I wonder if these theories could be applied to poker?

There are definitely mathematical theories used in Texas Hold 'Em but emotional decision making does sometimes get in the way. Also, players need to factor in opponent tendencies and position on the table. Variance will happen but ideally, poker players want to avoid situations where the Expected Value is negative
Click to expand...

Any gambling. Vegas is all over this stuff. The book describes a project between a Vegas brain and one of the people involved in the "heuristic" studies. The psychology of a gambler is one of the
prime examples of impulse and instinct being used to the gamblers detriment.
 
chevss454 said:
Glad you enjoyed it. I thought it was important, too.
It's all about due diligence and when you think you know all you need to know, go deeper and learn more about a guy's family, his past, his habits, his quirks, his dark secrets...everything about him as a person. Never rest thinking you know enough because you never do. And never fall in love with a guy so much that you don't do your due diligence or pick him over a better prospect because of personal bias. I've heard many times that BB is really good at learning a guy from a short 20 minute interview by asking the right questions and watching a guy while he responds.
Click to expand...

Exactly. Well said. I always put emphasis on team leaders or guys who never quit, guys who are determined to be great for whatever psychological reason over gifted athletes who might lose their drive once they get paid and become satisfied.

One of the more unusual examples of the former is Brady. He continually points to the fact that as a young kid he was overshadowed by his Sister's softball stardom and that was a major factor in how he developed his drive to win more respect from his family or whatever a psychologist would suggest was his motivation. I've heard hundreds of these kinds of back stories, but that one is unique.

Those are the guys you're trying to find. The ones who have something to prove and will never stop trying to prove it.
 
aloyouis said:
I watched CJ his entire career here in Michigan. Kyle Pitts in a Pats uni would give me palpitations. Good ones.

Trade up for Pitts and then grab Trask in the 2nd.

Who's with me?
Click to expand...


Would he play WR or the AHern role?
 
spacecrime said:
Does anyone like Trask?
Click to expand...
Their hand sewn driving moccasins are nice...I have a pair. They're too fancy for what I usually wear though. Mine look like these:

iu
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top