The 2021 Draft- We Need This One

Hawg73

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My final QB rankings for the draft. Comps are given for perspective comparisons.

Tier 1. Pro Bowl Potential.

1. Trevor Lawrence. Out in front in a diff class. High floor/high ceiling. Comp - Andrew Luck

2. Trey Lance. The most fundamentally sound quarterback in addition to excellent physical talent. Lance's upside could eventually approach Lawrence, if not exceed it, but his inexperience creates a longer acclimation period. Steve McNair X Matt Stafford

3. Mac Jones. Jones has some Brady-like upside to his mental game & as an accurate pocket player/passer. However, it's more realistic to consider him to be a better version of a stylistically similar player in Kirk Cousins. Comp - Kirk Cousins X Tom Brady.

4. Justin Fields. Fields has all the physical and technical skills of a top prospect with a high ceiling but he has a lower floor because of the processing flaws he must fix. He'll need a team that has the vision to play him early but also gives him room and direction to grow into a player with better processing speed. Comp - Josh Allen

Tier 2. Starter Potential.

5. Davis Mills. He's an accurate passer with fundamentally-sound throwing technique and a good start with reading defenses. He has no flaws that should prevent steady development into a starter in the NFL within 3-4 years. Comp - Eli Manning, Matt Ryan

6. Zach Wilson. I don't understand the hype to put him over the players I have ranked higher. He's often compared to Mahomes with his flash plays but he's far closer to Drew Lock or Jordan Love than he is to Mahomes. He's more fluff than he is substance although some team will be enamored by his fluff. Not worth his high draft capital. Comp - Baker Mayfield X Drew Lock X Johnny Manziel

Tier 3. Fringe Starter/Backup

7. Sam Ehlinger. Comp - Mark Sanchez
8. Jamie Newman. Comp - David Garrard, Jacoby Brissett
9. Kyle Trask. Comp - Trent Edwards X Matt Leinart
...................................................................................
Tier 4. Out of the NFL/Canadian Football

*. Kellen Mond. He's missing all the nuanced points of a well-schooled QB - his footwork, his drop backs, his pocket movements, his reads of coverage and his progressions are all lacking. You know the well built hyper-athletic 13 year old who played QB for the sandlot team? That's Mond. Comp - Manziel X Kaepernick

This is a fine post and I agree with most of it. I also agree that Zach Wilson is a bit oversold. Tons of talent, but I didn't love his interviews. He reminds me a bit of Josh Rosen as a prospect.

Not to pick nits, but I see Lance as a better comp to Josh Allen due to his huge arm and lower level of competition, but can see your point.

I would've agreed with your take on Kellen Mond after 2019, but his improvement in 2020 was, to me, notable. The Senior Bowl was a mess for his team and when he went in he was able to take the reins and get them rolling, which didn't appear possible. I think he does have a pretty big arm and has improved his accuracy, but would stop short of suggesting he is an NFL starter. Just, that he has enough skill to stick in the league. Mond has always been a pretty good runner at the college level, so that should help him.
 

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This is a fine post and I agree with most of it. I also agree that Zach Wilson is a bit oversold. Tons of talent, but I didn't love his interviews. He reminds me a bit of Josh Rosen as a prospect.

Not to pick nits, but I see Lance as a better comp to Josh Allen due to his huge arm and lower level of competition, but can see your point.

I would've agreed with your take on Kellen Mond after 2019, but his improvement in 2020 was, to me, notable. The Senior Bowl was a mess for his team and when he went in he was able to take the reins and get them rolling, which didn't appear possible. I think he does have a pretty big arm and has improved his accuracy, but would stop short of suggesting he is an NFL starter. Just, that he has enough skill to stick in the league. Mond has always been a pretty good runner at the college level, so that should help him.
I am in awe of the knowledge you guys have.
 
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chevss454

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My final QB rankings for the draft. Comps are given for perspective comparisons.

Tier 1. Pro Bowl Potential.

1. Trevor Lawrence. Out in front in a diff class. High floor/high ceiling. Comp - Andrew Luck

2. Trey Lance. The most fundamentally sound quarterback in addition to excellent physical talent. Lance's upside could eventually approach Lawrence, if not exceed it, but his inexperience creates a longer acclimation period. Steve McNair X Matt Stafford

3. Mac Jones. Jones has some Brady-like upside to his mental game & as an accurate pocket player/passer. However, it's more realistic to consider him to be a better version of a stylistically similar player in Kirk Cousins. Comp - Kirk Cousins X Tom Brady.

4. Justin Fields. Fields has all the physical and technical skills of a top prospect with a high ceiling but he has a lower floor because of the processing flaws he must fix. He'll need a team that has the vision to play him early but also gives him room and direction to grow into a player with better processing speed. Comp - Josh Allen

Tier 2. Starter Potential.

5. Davis Mills. He's an accurate passer with fundamentally-sound throwing technique and a good start with reading defenses. He has no flaws that should prevent steady development into a starter in the NFL within 3-4 years. Comp - Eli Manning, Matt Ryan

6. Zach Wilson. I don't understand the hype to put him over the players I have ranked higher. He's often compared to Mahomes with his flash plays but he's far closer to Drew Lock or Jordan Love than he is to Mahomes. He's more fluff than he is substance although some team will be enamored by his fluff. Not worth his high draft capital. Comp - Baker Mayfield X Drew Lock X Johnny Manziel

Tier 3. Fringe Starter/Backup

7. Sam Ehlinger. Comp - Mark Sanchez
8. Jamie Newman. Comp - David Garrard, Jacoby Brissett
9. Kyle Trask. Comp - Trent Edwards X Matt Leinart
...................................................................................
Tier 4. Out of the NFL/Canadian Football

*. Kellen Mond. He's missing all the nuanced points of a well-schooled QB - his footwork, his drop backs, his pocket movements, his reads of coverage and his progressions are all lacking. You know the well built hyper-athletic 13 year old who played QB for the sandlot team? That's Mond. Comp - Manziel X Kaepernick

This is a fine post and I agree with most of it. I also agree that Zach Wilson is a bit oversold. Tons of talent, but I didn't love his interviews. He reminds me a bit of Josh Rosen as a prospect.

Not to pick nits, but I see Lance as a better comp to Josh Allen due to his huge arm and lower level of competition, but can see your point.

I would've agreed with your take on Kellen Mond after 2019, but his improvement in 2020 was, to me, notable. The Senior Bowl was a mess for his team and when he went in he was able to take the reins and get them rolling, which didn't appear possible. I think he does have a pretty big arm and has improved his accuracy, but would stop short of suggesting he is an NFL starter. Just, that he has enough skill to stick in the league. Mond has always been a pretty good runner at the college level, so that should help him.

I can see your Trey Lance and Josh Allen comparison bc of arm strength. I chose McNair bc of his arm and athleticism with some Stafford thrown in for progressions ability and decision making.
Josh Allen had a hard time reading and reacting to defenses with his progressions and he was a little slow in his decisions his first 2 years and I think Justin Fields comps the exact same way as that.

Mond was able to bring a spark in the Senior Bowl with his athleticism and positive attitude. He has a lot of ground to make up in the nuances of being a QB in the NFL, imho.
 

Hawg73

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I put some stock into a guy who improves in his last year in College or, ideally, shows improvement every year and get more skeptical of a guy who goes downhill his last year. Granted, you have to look at the big picture in terms of supporting cast, but you would hope that a guy looks better.

Mond was awful for a pretty good A&M team in 2019 and it took me a while to change that impression last season. Conversely, Sam Darnold went downhill in his last season at USC, but he was so good the previous year that everybody figured that's who he was. So far, it looks like that is not the case. He's the same guy that was overmatched by Ohio State in his last bowl game.

Right now, it looks like Zack will be the Jets selection if they stay put. You've got to wonder if he is the beneficiary of a week schedule and a well-polished pro day routine and might not be the answer for them any more than Darnold has been. God, if that happened it would be fun.
 
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chevss454

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I put some stock into a guy who improves in his last year in College or, ideally, shows improvement every year and get more skeptical of a guy who goes downhill his last year. Granted, you have to look at the big picture in terms of supporting cast, but you would hope that a guy looks better.

Mond was awful for a pretty good A&M team in 2019 and it took me a while to change that impression last season. Conversely, Sam Darnold went downhill in his last season at USC, but he was so good the previous year that everybody figured that's who he was. So far, it looks like that is not the case. He's the same guy that was overmatched by Ohio State in his last bowl game.

Right now, it looks like Zack will be the Jets selection if they stay put. You've got to wonder if he is the beneficiary of a week schedule and a well-polished pro day routine and might not be the answer for them any more than Darnold has been. God, if that happened it would be fun.

A lot of Mond's stats & numbers are poor and show inconsistencies & that worries me.
35% completion rate outside the hash is not very good.
29% accuracy rate for throws 20 yds or more is not very good.
His throws on the run are really poor; to me, that's a no-no for a mobile QB.


As a general rule of thumb, QB grades in the NFL are 10 pts lower than college grades.
View: https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/1367138108995731457
 
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chevss454

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If not a QB with 15 (or a trade up) there are 2 players who fill positional needs. Either LB Collins & CB Horn would be great picks imo.
 

Hawg73

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A lot of Mond's stats & numbers are poor and show inconsistencies & that worries me.
35% completion rate outside the hash is not very good.
29% accuracy rate for throws 20 yds or more is not very good.
His throws on the run are really poor; to me, that's a no-no for a mobile QB.


As a general rule of thumb, QB grades in the NFL are 10 pts lower than college grades.
View: https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/1367138108995731457

Again, I'm not claiming he is Mahomes or a starter and his mechanics are pretty bad but you have to factor in his running to the big picture and he did score 22 TDs with his legs at A&M. He appears to be a pretty good leader with toughness and was a 4 year starter who threw for a school record 71 TDs. His Senior year he had his best completion pct., yards per attempt and lowest INT rate (19 TDs 3 picks in 10 games). Between that and a strong arm that can drive the ball downfield-- all I'm trying to get across is that I can see him ending up as a serviceable backup in the NFL, because there are plenty around that can't do either one of those things. I wouldn't relegate him to Saskatchewan just yet, but I don't want him in Foxboro.
 
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chevss454

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Again, I'm not claiming he is Mahomes or a starter and his mechanics are pretty bad but you have to factor in his running to the big picture and he did score 22 TDs with his legs at A&M. He appears to be a pretty good leader with toughness and was a 4 year starter who threw for a school record 71 TDs. His Senior year he had his best completion pct., yards per attempt and lowest INT rate (19 TDs 3 picks in 10 games). Between that and a strong arm that can drive the ball downfield-- all I'm trying to get across is that I can see him ending up as a serviceable backup in the NFL, because there are plenty around that can't do either one of those things. I wouldn't relegate him to Saskatchewan just yet, but I don't want him in Foxboro.
Good post that details his good points very well.
 
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chevss454

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Per PFF's latest mock. I'm all for it!

10. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (VIA DAL) — QB MAC JONES, ALABAMA

New England’s aggressiveness in free agency indicates that this team has no plans of tearing things down and rebuilding. Cam Newton is in place to be the guy at quarterback again in 2021, but it’s hard to see him being there beyond next season. Here are the two scenarios that could realistically play out next season:

Option No. 1: Newton plays well with more talent around him, and the Patriots have to pay him significantly more than $5 million to bring him back.

Option No. 2: Newton struggles again on a team with a mediocre record, and the Patriots are no closer to having an answer at quarterback for 2022. The only difference is that they won’t have nearly the same financial flexibility next offseason as they had this year.

Jones is the last consensus first-round talent at the position. His accuracy and control of that Alabama offense should be draws for New England, who can’t necessarily sit back and wait for him to drop to the 15th overall pick with teams such as Washington and Chicago potentially looking to move up. Dallas could be a willing trade partner with Pitts and Surtain off the board already in this scenario.
 
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chevss454

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Or this one, also PFF

New England Patriots move from No. 15 to No. 7 (Detroit Lions) to draft Alabama QB Mac Jones


Full trade details:


  • Patriots receive: No. 7, No. 153
  • Lions receive: No. 15, No. 46, No. 139 and 2022 2nd
  • Comparison Trade: 2018 Josh Allen (Bills receive No. 7 for No. 12, No. 53 and No. 56)

Of the big five quarterbacks in this year’s draft, it remains unclear which will fall out of the top three or four picks. But if it proves to be Ohio State's Justin Fields or North Dakota State's Trey Lance, this trade still makes plenty of sense for New England.
 

foobahl

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Or this one, also PFF

New England Patriots move from No. 15 to No. 7 (Detroit Lions) to draft Alabama QB Mac Jones


Full trade details:


  • Patriots receive: No. 7, No. 153
  • Lions receive: No. 15, No. 46, No. 139 and 2022 2nd
  • Comparison Trade: 2018 Josh Allen (Bills receive No. 7 for No. 12, No. 53 and No. 56)

Of the big five quarterbacks in this year’s draft, it remains unclear which will fall out of the top three or four picks. But if it proves to be Ohio State's Justin Fields or North Dakota State's Trey Lance, this trade still makes plenty of sense for New England.
If the argument is any one of 3 qb prospects, my take is none of them are worth moving up for. If the argument is the target qb is available, and we can move up do it, then it makes sense.
 

ParanoidPatriot

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If the argument is any one of 3 qb prospects, my take is none of them are worth moving up for. If the argument is the target qb is available, and we can move up do it, then it makes sense.
That is pretty much the trade that I have been doing on my mocks. Make the most sense now that Carolina is probably out of the mix.
 

king of kings

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Or this one, also PFF

New England Patriots move from No. 15 to No. 7 (Detroit Lions) to draft Alabama QB Mac Jones


Full trade details:


  • Patriots receive: No. 7, No. 153
  • Lions receive: No. 15, No. 46, No. 139 and 2022 2nd
  • Comparison Trade: 2018 Josh Allen (Bills receive No. 7 for No. 12, No. 53 and No. 56)

Of the big five quarterbacks in this year’s draft, it remains unclear which will fall out of the top three or four picks. But if it proves to be Ohio State's Justin Fields or North Dakota State's Trey Lance, this trade still makes plenty of sense for New England.
I think #8 would be idea spot. It won't cost a kings ransom . Unlike trading into top 4 to get a Fields or Lance. That is much more realistic trade package.
 
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