The 2021 Draft- We Need This One

The NFL loves the interest the draft generates and would just as soon that people didn't realize that somewhere around 2/3rds of the players chosen will be cut or wash out soon.

We all do mock drafts and think "shit, if I was running things all these guys would really help us", but it's a fact that no matter how a guy looks, tests, is regarded or how well he played in College a very large percentage get hurt, don't want to make the sacrifices necessary, get in trouble, don't have the confidence, can't learn a new position, unlearn bad habits or experience dozens of other issues that nobody could reasonably predict.

All you can hope for is that your team can add 4 useful players including one difference maker per year. Anything more than that seems to be an outlier. A bonus.

This is my completely non-scientific opinion, but look through recent draft history, including ours (which isn't terrifically representative of the league overall) and tell me if the one third theory doesn't have some merit. It might actually be way too high, but you get bogged down in characterization of guys that hang around and don't make much of an impact, as in you take a guy in the 7th round and he hangs around for a few seasons without making a major contribution. Is that a bad pick or a good pick?

It's simpler to observe the first round, but the same sorts of uncertainties are common there as well, albeit at a lower percentage than the subsequent rounds.

You'd think that the first two or three rounds worth of guys would have successful NFL careers, but it's not even close, but there are those dozen or so stars that can help a team change it's fortunes and that's why everybody goes nuts for it. I'm no different. I love trying to figure it out.
 
I think my post might have been misleading. I was not saying that every first round pick is starting caliber but that the history of the league shows that the majority of the starting caliber QBs in the league were taken in round 1. In other words, QBs drafted later than round 1 fall off precipitously in terms of becoming a quality starter. That does not mean it cannot happen. Heck, we got Brady in round 6 but the odds is what I was talking about.
We're on the same page, then.
 
The NFL loves the interest the draft generates and would just as soon that people didn't realize that somewhere around 2/3rds of the players chosen will be cut or wash out soon.

We all do mock drafts and think "shit, if I was running things all these guys would really help us", but it's a fact that no matter how a guy looks, tests, is regarded or how well he played in College a very large percentage get hurt, don't want to make the sacrifices necessary, get in trouble, don't have the confidence, can't learn a new position, unlearn bad habits or experience dozens of other issues that nobody could reasonably predict.

All you can hope for is that your team can add 4 useful players including one difference maker per year. Anything more than that seems to be an outlier. A bonus.

This is my completely non-scientific opinion, but look through recent draft history, including ours (which isn't terrifically representative of the league overall) and tell me if the one third theory doesn't have some merit. It might actually be way too high, but you get bogged down in characterization of guys that hang around and don't make much of an impact, as in you take a guy in the 7th round and he hangs around for a few seasons without making a major contribution. Is that a bad pick or a good pick?

It's simpler to observe the first round, but the same sorts of uncertainties are common there as well, albeit at a lower percentage than the subsequent rounds.

You'd think that the first two or three rounds worth of guys would have successful NFL careers, but it's not even close, but there are those dozen or so stars that can help a team change it's fortunes and that's why everybody goes nuts for it. I'm no different. I love trying to figure it out.

Here's an article I've been saving since 2015 that sums up the draft pretty well in a well thought out exercise.
The author doesn't use "bust", rather, if a player makes 1/2 the starts in his career, he's successful regardless of round taken.
This goes into depth for players who work out - by position and by round.
This is only a summary of an enlightening article:

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters by round:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%)
QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

Notables from the numbers​

A couple quick things to consider as you think through who you think the Chiefs should or might take.
  • If you want a safe first round pick, OL (83%), LB (70%) and TE (67%) have the lowest "bust" rates but all positions taken in the 1st round have at least a 58% chance of success.
  • TEs have a pretty reasonable chance of turning out in most rounds.
  • You are just as likely to have the same amount of success selecting a WR in the first or second round.
  • QBs seem to be first round or bust.
  • O-line in the first four rounds is a pretty safe bet.
  • Never take a TE, RB or QB in the 7th round if you hold out any hope of them being a starter.
  • Taking a defensive lineman in the 4th round has a higher success probability than a 2nd or 3rd round pick.
  • RBs are a dime a dozen and so you might as well have a committee.
 
I've been hearing whispers that Parsons has some off-field issues and this is what I found:

PSU FOOTBALL

SI’S MOCK DRAFT CITES ‘OFF-FIELD CONCERNS’ IN DROPPING MICAH PARSONS OUT OF TOP 15​

880214634ad6c5a73a63e8886966df3f

By
Cory Giger
Published
February 23, 2021

Parsons-Micah.jpg

Photo by Penn State Athletics: Micah Parsons
Of all the mock drafts released for months, you’d be hard pressed to find many that don’t have Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons going in the top 10 overall picks. So, it was interesting to see the latest mock draft from Sports Illustrated’s site, NFL Draft Bible, drop Parsons all the way down to the Miami Dolphins with the No. 18 pick.
Even more interesting, though, is the comment written about Parsons in explaining the draft placement. Here is the mock draft, and following is the explanation about Parsons at No. 18, written by NFL Draft Bible president Zack Patraw.
This may look like an unexpected drop but there is something to this. There are plenty of off-field concerns with Micah Parsons that will likely become clear, as we inch closer to the draft season. There’s no doubt that Parsons is one of the most talented individuals in this class but he could be in for a drop in Draft stock.
This seems to be either a really good draft scoop by Patraw about Parsons, or … well, a great deal of speculation.
The phrase “plenty of off-field concerns with Micah Parsons that will likely become clear, as we inch closer to the draft season” sounds like a suggestion that NFL teams could learn of some potentially unflattering details about Parsons in the coming weeks.
There hasn’t been much credence given to off-field concerns in many other mock drafts that have Parsons going in the top 10. So, Patraw either appears to be privy to some information — which he did not come right out and say in his story — about Parsons and his draft stock, or again, he’s merely speculating.

RELATED: See where ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. has Parsons going in his latest mock draft

A lot of this undoubtedly is related to the ongoing Isaiah Humphries lawsuit, which certainly paints Parsons in a bad light.

Parsons does have some things to deal with off the field — and NFL teams will want answers — with regards to that lawsuit brought on by the former PSU player, who eventually transferred to Cal.
Humphries is suing Penn State, James Franklin and former PSU football player Damion Barber in a federal lawsuit, claiming hazing and sexual harassment. Parsons is not a defendant in the lawsuit, but is listed as a party to it.
Parsons and Humphries got into a fight in 2018, according to the lawsuit. We wrote this detailed story about the background in November.
The following excerpt is from ESPN’s story about the situation:

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Humphries told school investigators Barber and Parsons threatened him, telling him they were “making me a b—- because this is prison,” and that Barber said, “I’m gonna Sandusky you,” referring to former Penn State coach Jerry Sandusky. He also said they would try to place genitalia close to players’ faces and simulate sex acts, and attempt to touch him in the shower, according to the report. He said the three players would wrestle him to the ground while clad only in their towels.

It is unclear if the NFL Draft Bible mock draft is referring solely to this lawsuit as the “off-field” concern regarding Parsons, or if there are other factors, as well.
Either way, the Sports Illustrated outlet is the only major one so far that has gone out on a limb and suggested Parsons could drop substantially in the draft for any such reason.
Just horsin' around I suppose... :coffee:
 
Here's an article I've been saving since 2015 that sums up the draft pretty well in a well thought out exercise.
The author doesn't use "bust", rather, if a player makes 1/2 the starts in his career, he's successful regardless of round taken.
This goes into depth for players who work out - by position and by round.
This is only a summary of an enlightening article:

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters by round:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%)
QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

Notables from the numbers​

A couple quick things to consider as you think through who you think the Chiefs should or might take.
  • If you want a safe first round pick, OL (83%), LB (70%) and TE (67%) have the lowest "bust" rates but all positions taken in the 1st round have at least a 58% chance of success.
  • TEs have a pretty reasonable chance of turning out in most rounds.
  • You are just as likely to have the same amount of success selecting a WR in the first or second round.
  • QBs seem to be first round or bust.
  • O-line in the first four rounds is a pretty safe bet.
  • Never take a TE, RB or QB in the 7th round if you hold out any hope of them being a starter.
  • Taking a defensive lineman in the 4th round has a higher success probability than a 2nd or 3rd round pick.
  • RBs are a dime a dozen and so you might as well have a committee.
QB in the 6th round = 0%? :coffee:
 
Here's an article I've been saving since 2015 that sums up the draft pretty well in a well thought out exercise.
The author doesn't use "bust", rather, if a player makes 1/2 the starts in his career, he's successful regardless of round taken.
This goes into depth for players who work out - by position and by round.
This is only a summary of an enlightening article:

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters by round:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%)
QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

Notables from the numbers​

A couple quick things to consider as you think through who you think the Chiefs should or might take.
  • If you want a safe first round pick, OL (83%), LB (70%) and TE (67%) have the lowest "bust" rates but all positions taken in the 1st round have at least a 58% chance of success.
  • TEs have a pretty reasonable chance of turning out in most rounds.
  • You are just as likely to have the same amount of success selecting a WR in the first or second round.
  • QBs seem to be first round or bust.
  • O-line in the first four rounds is a pretty safe bet.
  • Never take a TE, RB or QB in the 7th round if you hold out any hope of them being a starter.
  • Taking a defensive lineman in the 4th round has a higher success probability than a 2nd or 3rd round pick.
  • RBs are a dime a dozen and so you might as well have a committee.

That doesn't seem like a good way to look at the draft.

Suppose there's a player who gets drafted, gets into four games, and starts two of them. Then that player gets cut and never plays again. That's a successful draft pick, based on the article.



Or take a player like Matthew Slater. He was a 5th round draft choice. He's listed as a WR, has played in 189 games, but has only 3 starts.

He would not be considered successful, per that analysis. Yet he's been named a Pro Bowl player 9 times and has two All-Pro designations.



If the author of that article had a minimum games threshold or a special teamer designation that was part of his analysis, he didn't mention it. It would be interesting to see how the percentages would change with those kinds of criteria added.
 



Yellow click bait journalism at its finest.
Let's write an article based on conjecture and innuendo as absolute fact and give it a misleading title then feed it to the BB/Patriots haters.
We know Belichick won't respond to anything we write so we can bash him unmercifully without recourse.
Easy peasy.

Truths we know.
1. The last 4-5 Patriots drafts have been poor.
2. BB is the head honcho and all poor decisions for the team come back on him no matter who made them.
3. Great bosses delegate responsibility to smart people.
4. Caserio was the defacto asst GM (Director of Player Personnel) since 2008.
5. Scouting is a central part of a DPP's job. DPPs are responsible for hiring, training and coordinating the scouts. DPPs are responsible for selecting the players to evaluate. He must pull together all the information on each player, including input from team scouts, coaches, recruiting services and other sources to present to the general manager and head coach. Some DPPs have full decision-making authority regarding recruitment, drafting or hiring of players; others operate in an advisory capacity. Caserio was somewhere in between and his authority was growing under BB's supervision until the time came to part ways.
6. Garbage in, garbage out.
7. Dissension, give and take are all a natural part of player evaluation.


Now let me use conjecture for a moment.
Is it too much of a stretch to imagine BB putting more and more responsibility into Caserio's hands over the last 11 years to see if he could one day take over?
Is it possible that in such a scenario BB stood by Caserio in the face of the scouts' arguments to give Caserio's view points support? Harry is one such example.

I'm not saying Caserio made every poor draft choice and BB made every good choice (Tavon Wilson was BB); I'm saying Caserio was in charge of tutoring the scouts & coordinating their scouting trips for the past 5 years. I'm saying BB put Caserio in charge of the scouting department with less and less input from BB each year. I'm saying Caserio did a poor job with college scouting. I'm saying Caserio was encouraged to find new employment. BB gave Caserio glowing recommendations to expedite his departure. I'm saying I'm happy BB is fully back in charge of college scouting.
The problem with these reports is that we only have their word for it that they preferred other players.

Had they said this stuff straight after the draft, I'd be more inclined to listen.

Various sources have made the point that BB is actually very good at taking on board different viewpoints.
 
The drafting problem is not new. Almost every draft has been blown since 2007, with the major exception of the 2010 draft where McCourty, Gronk, and Ahern were taken.
Go back even to 07, when the only guy who stuck was Merriweather. We all know how he turned out.
In 08 they traded up to get Mayo, and he was great, but the rest of that class was flat out awful.
In 09 the only one worth a damn was Vollmer.
2011 saw Nate solder, who Id argue was never that great, but he was a starter. Also saw vereen and Ridley. These guys all contributed here, but lets be real. They are all JAGs. Maybe if vereen wasn’t always injured.
2012 saw Hightower and Jones. Two guys who were pretty good. Also the two positions BB does tend to hit on. The rest of the class? Pretty forgettable.
2013 saw Jamie Collins, Harmon, and Logan Ryan as the best picks. Yeah, those guys are ok.
2014 saw Easley as the number one, but also hits on Jimmy G, and James white. So basically white was the guy who really came out of this draft for the team. Jimmy wasn’t a bust it’s not like he was on the field. I guess he motivated Brady.
2015 saw its share of blown picks, but also mason and flowers. Malcom brown? Yeah he’s ok. He’s playing average ball for the saints now. Jordan Richards in the 2nd? Yeah......
2016 joe Thuney was it. Nothing else worth mentioning, and that includes brissett. No he’s not a starter, or good.
The 2017 draft was one of the worst in recent memory and that’s really saying something. A first was traded for cooks though, and he was pretty good while he was here.
2018. To me it’s another busted class. Yes Wynn is still a starter, but he’s average at best. By that I mean he’s not a top 15 left tackle. I know a lot of y’all love him, but he’s just not. Sony was a huge waste of a first rounder. Some may point to that super bowl run, and I’ll point to Trent Brown. Duke Dawson anyone?
2019............. maybe Winovich sticks. It’d be great to see Harris unleashed, but Harry is one of the worst most obvious busts in BBs drafting history. Excuse me Caserio’s. I keep forgetting it’s not BB making these decisions.

I rushed through this, but it’s been 15 years of really bad drafting. Really since 07. It’s not new. Yes there were a few good picks in there, but not many, and almost 0 impact players.

If Belichick refuses to retire I’m in favor of trading the next 4 years of drafts for Trevor Lawrence. I’m not joking. If you look back at who he actually drafts it’s a very good deal.
 
If Belichick refuses to retire I’m in favor of trading the next 4 years of drafts for Trevor Lawrence. I’m not joking. If you look back at who he actually drafts it’s a very good deal.
Did you offer Belichick an ultimatum or something? That part is comical. It isn't happening. He isn't under ANY pressure to do so except from a couple fans and that means no pressure at all.

It feels like BB cut the line in front of you at DD...
 
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The drafting problem is not new. Almost every draft has been blown since 2007, with the major exception of the 2010 draft where McCourty, Gronk, and Ahern were taken.
Go back even to 07, when the only guy who stuck was Merriweather. We all know how he turned out.
In 08 they traded up to get Mayo, and he was great, but the rest of that class was flat out awful.

2008 - Matthew Slater in the 5th round. Named to 9 Pro Bowls and has been All Pro twice.

And there was no 1st round draft pick in 2008 because of Goodell mishandling the Mangini-Belichick feud.

In 09 the only one worth a damn was Vollmer.

2009 - Patrick Chung. Very solid starter for many years here.
2009 - Julian Edelman. MVP of Super Bowl 53. Second all-time in post-season receptions.

2011 saw Nate solder, who Id argue was never that great, but he was a starter. Also saw vereen and Ridley. These guys all contributed here, but lets be real. They are all JAGs. Maybe if vereen wasn’t always injured.

2011 - Marcus Cannon. Versatile swing tackle.

2012 saw Hightower and Jones. Two guys who were pretty good. Also the two positions BB does tend to hit on. The rest of the class? Pretty forgettable.

2012 - Nate Ebner. 6th round choice that played for the Patriots for 8 years. Not every 6th round pick is going to be the GOAT at his position.

2013 saw Jamie Collins, Harmon, and Logan Ryan as the best picks. Yeah, those guys are ok.
2014 saw Easley as the number one, but also hits on Jimmy G, and James white. So basically white was the guy who really came out of this draft for the team. Jimmy wasn’t a bust it’s not like he was on the field. I guess he motivated Brady.

2014 - Belichick also picked up Malcom Butler this year as a UDFA. UDFAs aren't freebies, they've been scouted and evaluated too, and represent an investment in resources by Belichick and his assistants.

2015 saw its share of blown picks, but also mason and flowers. Malcom brown? Yeah he’s ok. He’s playing average ball for the saints now. Jordan Richards in the 2nd? Yeah......

2015 - Another UDFA, David Andrews, was picked up as part of the incoming class of rookies.

2016 joe Thuney was it. Nothing else worth mentioning, and that includes brissett. No he’s not a starter, or good.

Another 1st round draft pick stolen by Goodell.

Malcom Mitchell, Elandon Roberts, and Ted Karras - all solid picks, but knee problems derailed Mitchell's career. But he made a key reception in the Super Bowl vs. the Falcons, falling down on his route but getting back up and still catching the ball.

Add Jonathan Jones as a UDFA.

The 2017 draft was one of the worst in recent memory and that’s really saying something. A first was traded for cooks though, and he was pretty good while he was here.

The fourth round pick was part of the deflategate heist by Goodell.

Detriech Wise is still on the team from that draft. As is UDFA Adam Butler

2018. To me it’s another busted class. Yes Wynn is still a starter, but he’s average at best. By that I mean he’s not a top 15 left tackle. I know a lot of y’all love him, but he’s just not. Sony was a huge waste of a first rounder. Some may point to that super bowl run, and I’ll point to Trent Brown. Duke Dawson anyone?


2019............. maybe Winovich sticks. It’d be great to see Harris unleashed, but Harry is one of the worst most obvious busts in BBs drafting history. Excuse me Caserio’s. I keep forgetting it’s not BB making these decisions.

2019 draft yielded an All Pro in the 5th round - Jake Bailey

I rushed through this, but it’s been 15 years of really bad drafting. Really since 07. It’s not new. Yes there were a few good picks in there, but not many, and almost 0 impact players.

If Belichick refuses to retire I’m in favor of trading the next 4 years of drafts for Trevor Lawrence. I’m not joking. If you look back at who he actually drafts it’s a very good deal.

Yeah, you rushed it. In other words, you know you posted a biased and incomplete evaluation, but you'd rather do that than put in the time to give Belichick's work a fair assessment.

And I only mentioned a few of the UDFAs that have worked out - Jakobi Myers and J.C. Jackson are two more deserving of mention.
 
Good points but you can’t count UDFA to BB draft history, He does always seem to find the Gems . 2019 Harris & Bailey are only 2 that’s been a standouts . Winovich regressed after a promising Rookie season.

Winovich saw his play time reduced bc of issues setting the edge. He's a pass rusher now.
 
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