The 2021 Draft- We Need This One

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DeflateThis said:
Its hard to value Jones. He played for Bama, with two wrs that will be drafted in the topp 15 and a 1st round rb. And he played behind a stellar line. He will face a different reality in the nfl.
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To be fair, alot of highly drafted QBs are in similar situations....Clemson is full of scrubs, right? OSU?
 
I watched Zack Wilson's pro day today and he's about the closest thing to Pat Mahomes to come out since the baby goat. Lower case.

He has all kinds of arm talent and can throw dimes from on the run from angles and different arm slots. And he can tuck it and run. Call him Mahomes lite.

He looks good, but as you pointed out he, like Trey Lance, hasn't exactly beaten the iron in college ball, nor does he have a long track record.

The Jets have an interesting decision facing them, because he probably needs to percolate for a while, but athletic talent? He has tons.

He won't go later than 3, but I still like Jones as a fit for our system.
 
Big/Sky/Fly said:
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You've completely stormed the PFF castle and are toying with them now. Another month and we'll have Trevor with Mac Jones to back him up.

Although I could question the selection of 4 WRs, that's a lot of talent. I'm sure at least one of those guys can go deep, so maybe saturation
bombing is the way to go.

Last year, we took 10 guys in total and all but one were selected using picks acquired in trades, so maybe it'll become a tradition.

Also, you know how I know that Jacoby Stevens will never be a Patriot? When I now see him listed on every Pats mock including my own.
 
A study of the NFL draft with some interesting conclusions.


The Loser's Curse: Decision Making and Market Efficiency in the National Football League
DraftAbstract
A question of increasing interest to researchers in a variety of fields is whether the biases found in judgmentand decision-making research remain present in contexts in which experienced participants face strongeconomic incentives. To investigate this question, we analyze the decision making of National FootballLeague teams during their annual player draft. This is a domain in which monetary stakes are exceedingly highand the opportunities for learning are rich. It is also a domain in which multiple psychological factors suggestthat teams may overvalue the chance to pick early in the draft. Using archival data on draft-day trades, playerperformance, and compensation, we compare the market value of draft picks with the surplus value to teamsprovided by the drafted players. We find that top draft picks are significantly overvalued in a manner that is inconsistent with rational expectations and efficient markets, and consistent with psychological research.
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1. High picks are overvalued
2. Lower picks are undervalued
3. It's almost always best to trade back when looking for value.
4. The Draft Value Chart the NFL uses gives far too much value to high picks and not enough value to lower picks.
5. Biases of those who do the drafting interfere with getting picks right.
 
chevss454 said:
A study of the NFL draft with some interesting conclusions.


The Loser's Curse: Decision Making and Market Efficiency in the National Football League
DraftAbstract
A question of increasing interest to researchers in a variety of fields is whether the biases found in judgmentand decision-making research remain present in contexts in which experienced participants face strongeconomic incentives. To investigate this question, we analyze the decision making of National FootballLeague teams during their annual player draft. This is a domain in which monetary stakes are exceedingly highand the opportunities for learning are rich. It is also a domain in which multiple psychological factors suggestthat teams may overvalue the chance to pick early in the draft. Using archival data on draft-day trades, playerperformance, and compensation, we compare the market value of draft picks with the surplus value to teamsprovided by the drafted players. We find that top draft picks are significantly overvalued in a manner that is inconsistent with rational expectations and efficient markets, and consistent with psychological research.
=======================================
1. High picks are overvalued
2. Lower picks are undervalued
3. It's almost always best to trade back when looking for value.
4. The Draft Value Chart the NFL uses gives far too much value to high picks and not enough value to lower picks.
5. Biases of those who do the drafting interfere with getting picks right.
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Every time that I wanted to trade up, I lost value...and depending on the player(s) available, the teams that wanted to trade me...I got either a ransom or got extreme value back. Also, some players that are good will drop for whatever reason. Pick those players.
 
The Patriots have been in contact with the Bengals and Falcons for possibly trading up for their top 5 picks per Jeff Howe.
 
king of kings said:
They will all want a more then the 49ers offered. That deal changed the draft landscape. Do you think BB will risk that much. Just for possibility of selecting fields of Lance.
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A move to 5 would be reasonable, I think, if the guy they want is there.

The 5th pick is worth 468 pts.
Our 15th pick is worth 315 pts.\
Our 46th pick is worth 128 pts./ that's 443 right there. Add in 120 (23 pts) and it's up to 466.

Or our 15th and Gilmore.
 
king of kings said:
If that does happen . 49ers threw it on floor & pissed on it . John Lynch should be immediately fired. He just pulled a bill o'brien's to massive overpay for a pick.
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I ran the numbers through a calculator and it wasn't as much as an overpay as initial reactions dictate....it just takes alot to move into the top 3...it is a big risk if his guy isn't there or doesn't work out....
 
PatsFan09 said:
Yeah, without at least 2 firsts, with a bit more, it won’t happen.


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PFF better tighten up their mock sim then...all I'm doing is what I'm allowed to do. :coffee:.

Also, I kinda agree...but, maybe Gilmore was included. :coffee:
 
I'm surprised that the Madden company doesn't come up with a franchise mode...without playing the video game.
 
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