From PFF. Maybe our draft was better than initially thought.
Folks in the media didn’t care for the Patriots’ draft, and it left many around the NFL scratching their heads, as well.
I asked a scout during Day 3 of the draft if he was surprised Zappe went before Howell.
“In a vacuum, 100%,” he said. “ But as the days pass, I’m just kind of expecting the Patriots to do unorthodox things.”
Some Patriots fans have theorized that New England took Zappe because he’d be more willing to accept a backup job behind starting quarterback and 2021 first-round pick
Mac Jones. To that I say, would the Patriots really take a player who’s happy with a backup job? They simply must have liked Zappe more than Howell for his smarts, intangibles or on-field play.
We've
already covered New England's surprising decision to select guard
Cole Strange with their 29th overall pick in the first round. It was one of the biggest shocks of the entire draft, but another league source recently reached out and said he understood the pick in part because Strange is a freak athlete. He’s widely regarded as a future starter in the NFL.
Reactions to the Patriots’ draft actually underscore how differently teams rank or value certain players. I reached out to an AFC personnel executive after the Patriots picked Strange on Thursday night, and he defended the pick by calling Strange a good player and a starter. He essentially said the key to the draft is picking good players, and that’s exactly what the Patriots did.
The NFC personnel executive understood the Thornton pick. He thought it was necessary for New England to trade up for the Baylor wide receiver and believed one of the teams who picked a wide receiver in the next three picks would have chosen Thornton. But the Strange selection was laughable to him.
An NFC scout was also surprised by the Thornton pick but understood New England falling for his speed. Thornton ran a blazing 4.28-second 40-yard dash, and it shows up on the field. One of Thornton’s most concerning measurables was his 8.25-inch hands. Only 14 wide receivers with 8.5-inch or smaller hands caught passes in the NFL last season. Three of them were
Tyler Lockett (8.375 inches),
Tyreek Hill (8 inches) and
Hunter Renfrow (7.875 inches), however.
In the PFF era (since 2006), only 30 drafted wide receivers with 8.5-inch or smaller hands have caught passes in the NFL. And only 42 total wide receivers with 8.5-inch or smaller hands have caught passes in the same span. They have a combined 8.6% drop rate. The average drop rate among all wide receivers in that same span of time was 8.49%. So, perhaps hand size is a bit overrated.
The top-graded players on that list are Hill,
T.Y Hilton, Lockett, Renfrow and
Will Fuller V. If Thornton can turn into any of those players, New England will be more than happy with the pick. Also on the list are
J.J. Nelson (who also ran a 4.28-second 40-yard dash) with a 14.9% drop rate and Chad Jackson (also a Patriots second-round pick) with a 25% drop rate. If Thornton becomes Nelson or Jackson, it’s much more of a problem.
Thornton had a career 5.9% drop rate in college, but it was just 4.6% in his 2021 senior season, his most productive campaign at Baylor.
Diving into all things 2022 NFL Draft, including what NFL scouts and executives though about quarterback Sam Howell's slide to the Washington Commanders in the fifth round.
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Concerning hand size.
Thornton's technique at the catch point is pretty much perfect. He extends his arms with his hands together to catch the ball rather clapping the ball as many receivers do.
Lockett, Tyreek Hill, Hunter Renfrow and Will Fuller are having productive NFL careers with smaller hands than our guy.
A 4.6% drop rate for Thornton is outstanding especially when you consider he faced double coverage on practically every catch and had a below avg QB throwing him the ball.
