The NFL's Analytics Revolution Is Here. Adapt Or Get Left Behind.

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bmooney54 said:
This BR article based on advanced analytics is really good. "Brady is old, and his skills are slipping. The numbers don't lie. It's only controversial among those who don't want it to be true."

https://bleacherreport.com/articles...bers-dont-lie-tom-brady-really-is-getting-old
Click to expand...


I guess it had nothing to do with Edelman out for 4 games or working Josh Gordon into the offense or Trent Brown, too, for that matter. Not to mention Gronk's slippage. Yeah, it's all on Brady.
 
2018 Is The Most Offensive-Powered Final Four Ever

The table below shows where each of the final four teams rank in points, yards, points allowed, and yards allowed, along with each team’s average rank of the two offensive categories and average rank of the two defensive categories. The final column shows the difference between the team’s offensive and defensive ranks, as a way of describing whether a team is offensive-powered or defensive-powered.
<table id="tablepress-3189" class="tablepress tablepress-id-3189 dataTable no-footer" role="grid"><thead> <tr class="row-1 odd" role="row"><th class="column-1 sorting" tabindex="0" aria-controls="tablepress-3189" rowspan="1" colspan="1" style="width: 48px;" aria-label="Year: activate to sort column ascending">Year</th><th class="column-2 sorting" tabindex="0" aria-controls="tablepress-3189" rowspan="1" colspan="1" style="width: 54px;" aria-label="Team: activate to sort column ascending">Team</th><th class="column-3 sorting" tabindex="0" aria-controls="tablepress-3189" rowspan="1" colspan="1" style="width: 57px;" aria-label="PF Rk: activate to sort column ascending">PF Rk</th><th class="column-4 sorting" tabindex="0" aria-controls="tablepress-3189" rowspan="1" colspan="1" style="width: 58px;" aria-label="Yd Rk: activate to sort column ascending">Yd Rk</th><th class="column-5 sorting" tabindex="0" aria-controls="tablepress-3189" rowspan="1" colspan="1" style="width: 59px;" aria-label="PA Rk: activate to sort column ascending">PA Rk</th><th class="column-6 sorting" tabindex="0" aria-controls="tablepress-3189" rowspan="1" colspan="1" style="width: 59px;" aria-label="YA Rk: activate to sort column ascending">YA Rk</th><th class="column-7 sorting" tabindex="0" aria-controls="tablepress-3189" rowspan="1" colspan="1" style="width: 94px;" aria-label="Avg Off Rk: activate to sort column ascending">Avg Off Rk</th><th class="column-8 sorting" tabindex="0" aria-controls="tablepress-3189" rowspan="1" colspan="1" style="width: 97px;" aria-label="Avg Def Rk: activate to sort column ascending">Avg Def Rk</th><th class="column-9 sorting" tabindex="0" aria-controls="tablepress-3189" rowspan="1" colspan="1" style="width: 88px;" aria-label="Off Heavy: activate to sort column ascending">Off Heavy</th></tr> </thead> <tbody class="row-hover"> <tr class="row-2 even" role="row"> <td class="column-1">2018</td><td class="column-2">NOR</td><td class="column-3">3</td><td class="column-4">8</td><td class="column-5">14</td><td class="column-6">14</td><td class="column-7">5.5</td><td class="column-8">14</td><td class="column-9">8.5</td> </tr><tr class="row-3 odd" role="row"> <td class="column-1">2018</td><td class="column-2">NWE</td><td class="column-3">4</td><td class="column-4">5</td><td class="column-5">7</td><td class="column-6">21</td><td class="column-7">4.5</td><td class="column-8">14</td><td class="column-9">9.5</td> </tr><tr class="row-4 even" role="row"> <td class="column-1">2018</td><td class="column-2">LAR</td><td class="column-3">2</td><td class="column-4">2</td><td class="column-5">20</td><td class="column-6">19</td><td class="column-7">2</td><td class="column-8">19.5</td><td class="column-9">17.5</td> </tr><tr class="row-5 odd" role="row"> <td class="column-1">2018</td><td class="column-2">KAN</td><td class="column-3">1</td><td class="column-4">1</td><td class="column-5">24</td><td class="column-6">31</td><td class="column-7">1</td><td class="column-8">27.5</td><td class="column-9">26.5</td></tr></tbody></table>
This year, the final four teams have offenses that, on average, rank 15.5 slots higher than their defenses. The 2016 final four is the only year that comes close, but the offenses are better in 2018 while the defenses are worse. Make no mistake: this is the most unbalanced set of final four teams we have ever seen.<label>Search:<input type="search" class="" placeholder="" aria-controls="tablepress-3190"></label>
<table id="tablepress-3190" class="tablepress tablepress-id-3190 dataTable no-footer" role="grid"><thead> <tr class="row-1 odd" role="row"><th class="column-1 sorting" tabindex="0" aria-controls="tablepress-3190" rowspan="1" colspan="1" style="width: 55px;" aria-label="Year: activate to sort column ascending">Year</th><th class="column-2 sorting" tabindex="0" aria-controls="tablepress-3190" rowspan="1" colspan="1" style="width: 66px;" aria-label="PF Rk: activate to sort column ascending">PF Rk</th><th class="column-3 sorting" tabindex="0" aria-controls="tablepress-3190" rowspan="1" colspan="1" style="width: 67px;" aria-label="PA Rk: activate to sort column ascending">PA Rk</th><th class="column-4 sorting" tabindex="0" aria-controls="tablepress-3190" rowspan="1" colspan="1" style="width: 66px;" aria-label="Yd Rk: activate to sort column ascending">Yd Rk</th><th class="column-5 sorting" tabindex="0" aria-controls="tablepress-3190" rowspan="1" colspan="1" style="width: 68px;" aria-label="YA Rk: activate to sort column ascending">YA Rk</th><th class="column-6 sorting" tabindex="0" aria-controls="tablepress-3190" rowspan="1" colspan="1" style="width: 106px;" aria-label="Avg Off Rk: activate to sort column ascending">Avg Off Rk</th><th class="column-7 sorting" tabindex="0" aria-controls="tablepress-3190" rowspan="1" colspan="1" style="width: 109px;" aria-label="Avg Def Rk: activate to sort column ascending">Avg Def Rk</th><th class="column-8 sorting" tabindex="0" aria-controls="tablepress-3190" rowspan="1" colspan="1" style="width: 100px;" aria-label="Off Heavy: activate to sort column ascending">Off Heavy</th></tr> </thead> <tbody class="row-hover"> <tr class="row-2 even" role="row"> <td class="column-1">2018</td><td class="column-2">2.5</td><td class="column-3">16.25</td><td class="column-4">4</td><td class="column-5">21.25</td><td class="column-6">3.25</td><td class="column-7">18.75</td><td class="column-8">15.5</td> </tr><tr class="row-3 odd" role="row"> <td class="column-1">2016</td><td class="column-2">4.5</td><td class="column-3">14.75</td><td class="column-4">5.25</td><td class="column-5">16.75</td><td class="column-6">4.875</td><td class="column-7">15.75</td><td class="column-8">10.875</td> </tr><tr class="row-4 even" role="row"> <td class="column-1">1981</td><td class="column-2">4.25</td><td class="column-3">11.75</td><td class="column-4">5.25</td><td class="column-5">15.25</td><td class="column-6">4.75</td><td class="column-7">13.5</td><td class="column-8">8.75</td></tr></tbody></table>
It’s also the worst set of defensive teams we have ever seen. By way of comparison, in 2010, the final four teams had an average rank of 4.75 in yards allowed and 3.25 in points allowed.

The 2018 Chiefs have dethroned the ’81 Chargers and now stand out as the most one-sided final four team in favor of offense ever.

Since 2000 the highest scoring team in the league has only won 1 SB despite playing in 7 SBs; the 2009 Saints scored 510 and defeated the Colts.

http://www.footballperspective.com/the-highest-scoring-team-has-won-just-one-super-bowl-since-2000/


I left out a lot of tables and graphs in favor of the bottom line.
Absolute conclusions can't be made until the games play out but it's obvious (to me anyway) that the Chiefs have a huge historical nut to crack to win the SB with such disparity in offensive and defensive rankings. Saints and Patriots looking pretty good, btw.
 
Warren Sharp‏Verified account @SharpFootball <small class="time"> 3h3 hours ago </small>
In their earlier meeting, the Patriots destroyed the Chiefs from 21 personnel:
Passing:
•80% success rate, 15.4 YPA, 0 sacks Rushing:
•65% success rate, 5.1 YPC
YTD:
•KC is the NFL's worst defense vs 21 (65% success rate)
•NE has the 2nd highest usage rate of 21 personnel


These are the last 4 teams standing. Their ranks defensively on early downs?
11. Rams
12. Saints
13. Patriots


28. Chiefs
 
chevss454 said:
Warren Sharp‏Verified account @SharpFootball <small class="time"> 3h3 hours ago </small>
In their earlier meeting, the Patriots destroyed the Chiefs from 21 personnel:
Passing:
•80% success rate, 15.4 YPA, 0 sacks Rushing:
•65% success rate, 5.1 YPC
YTD:
•KC is the NFL's worst defense vs 21 (65% success rate)
•NE has the 2nd highest usage rate of 21 personnel


These are the last 4 teams standing. Their ranks defensively on early downs?
11. Rams
12. Saints
13. Patriots


28. Chiefs
Click to expand...

Those are some DAMNING analytics
 
BB already knows all this. :coffee:


Warren Sharp@SharpFootball
Teams run the ball 65% of the time when under center in 11 personnel. Passes avg 6.2 YPA & a 47% success rate. Adding play action bumps to 8.7 YPA & 52% success. Teams should increase play action rate when under center in 11. Patriots used it on 72% of their att. Results?





 
chevss454 said:
BB already knows all this. :coffee:


Warren Sharp@SharpFootball
Teams run the ball 65% of the time when under center in 11 personnel. Passes avg 6.2 YPA & a 47% success rate. Adding play action bumps to 8.7 YPA & 52% success. Teams should increase play action rate when under center in 11. Patriots used it on 72% of their att. Results?





Click to expand...

With a healthy Michell, White, Burkhead, Devlin and Harris, the running game should be better than last year. Add in the WR handoffs to Edelman and Harry and this team has the tools to force teams to respect the ground game. I see no reason for the PA% to be any less this year. I can't wait!
 
This PFF study shows just how bad the return is when teams sign high priced UFAs (1st few days of free agency - Trey Flowers for example) or place the FT or Transition tag.

This is what BB has been teaching us for 20 years and here it is in living color. For BB to sign any player above the SFA (street free agent) level, that player would have to be very special or sign on BB's terms.



UnrestrictedFreeAgents-1024x633.png



https://www.pff.com/news/pro-z-pff-data-study-examining-nfl-contract-values
 
I like ANY/A measurements because 1) it's simple and 2) it correlates well with better, but not so simple, metrics like DVOA. Having a great passing offense and defense is ideal, but if a team is great on offense and just above average on defense, it is in good shape for the playoffs. I'm not surprised Buffalo leads the league in ANY/A Differential.
Interpreting rankings like this can be a trap, though, since these rankings don't tell the whole story of a team. For example, NO is ranked 4th but doesn't take into account the 4+ games Brees missed. We shouldn't be surprised if NO makes some loud noise in the playoffs and gets to the SB. Yearly rankings also don't take into account teams that have played better in recent games such as Buffalo, Baltimore and Tampa Bay; or played worse in recent games, Pittsburgh. I won't be surprised if either GB & Pitt get bounced early. Baltimore could be dangerous if they can get past the Titans.
This chart indicates to me that it's likely we'll see NO play Buffalo in the SB.

Caveat:
If the Chiefs win their Divisional game, they will become the first team in history to host three straight AFC Championship Games.
The only team to do it in the NFC? The 2002-04 Philadelphia Eagles.
Both teams coached by Andy Reid.


Eq82w_YVoAE4_nL
 
Individual ANY/Y

Final 2020 Passing Statistics

It was the greatest passing season in NFL history… again. More on that in a moment, but first, let’s marvel at the game’s two best players. Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes were the top two quarterbacks in 2020, and the former MVPs both had magnificent seasons. Unfortunately for Mahomes, he...
www.footballperspective.com www.footballperspective.com
 
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