The WR roster battle

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Okay, so we've got 12 guys. 6 holdovers, 6 new faces:

Holdovers:
  • Douglas
  • Bourne
  • Boutte
  • Baker
  • Polk
  • Jiles
New Guys:
  • Diggs
  • Hollins
  • Williams
  • Chism
  • Webb
  • Blankumsee
Let's break them out differently, in tiers of likelihood of making the roster/PS. Just as an exercise, I'll take a shot at putting them in order within the tiers:

Absolute Locks (outside of health or behavioral risk):
  • Williams
  • Diggs

Near Locks:
  • Douglas
  • Hollins

High Bubble:
  • Boutte
  • Bourne

Low Bubble:
  • Chism
  • Polk
  • Baker

Fat Chance:
  • Jiles
  • Blankumsee
  • Webb
Three considerations in shaking this out are 1) how many OL, TE, and pure ST are kept; 2) who is most likely to get through to the PS without getting poached, and 3) injuries and the Foxborough Flu stashing folks on PUP.

Let's assume that we'll keep fewer pure ST than Belichick has kept in the past. We know there will be 3 minimum, but will the staff dedicate more roster spots than that to guys who are focused teamers? I think just one, Schooler.

So let's assume 53 minus 4 teamers leaves 49. From there, 23 offense, 23 defense, and 3 "at large" spots. Some of how those 3 are allocated will depend on whether core ST guys play offense vs defense.

Of the base 23 offense, effective positional minimums:
2 QB
8 OL
5 WR
3 RB
2 TE
...leaving 3 flex offense spots, 3 at large spots. I think it's 9 OL, 6 WR, 4 RB. I want to say that another spot should go to Lampe as a FB, but he's basically 100% safe to make it to the practice squad, and I think they take advantage of that during initial cut downs.

As of right now, I think Chism makes this team if they don't think they can stash him. They won't lose him. So, assuming neither Bourne nor Boutte get traded, I think this might be the year they keep 7 WR on their 53. I don't like it philosophically, but with all the rookies and competitive UDRFAs a lot of the bubbly people are very stashable - guys like Larison, Dippre, Conley, and Bryant.

Thoughts? Where are my assumptions bad, and where am I full of shit?
 
Good thread, Flagg. It's a subject that's on every Patriots' fan's mind right now. It's also on the minds of the coaches, especially Josh McD. The difference in fans and
coaches is that fans want answers right away and coaches are willing to let the players decide their own fate on the field during camp. Nevertheless, you've provided us
with a usable template for today.

I'm going to assume 6 WRs make the team and another 2-3 could be kept via the PS, STs, Foxboro Flu, legit injury, or PUP (IR designated to return). Trades are always open.


Flagg the Wanderer said:
Okay, so we've got 12 guys. 6 holdovers, 6 new faces:

Holdovers:
  • Douglas
  • Bourne
  • Boutte
  • Baker
  • Polk
  • Jiles
New Guys:
  • Diggs
  • Hollins
  • Williams
  • Chism
  • Webb
  • Blankumsee
Let's break them out differently, in tiers of likelihood of making the roster/PS. Just as an exercise, I'll take a shot at putting them in order within the tiers:

Absolute Locks (outside of health or behavioral risk):
  • Williams
  • Diggs

Near Locks:
  • Douglas
  • Hollins

High Bubble:
  • Boutte
  • Bourne

Low Bubble:
  • Chism
  • Polk
  • Baker

Fat Chance:
  • Jiles
  • Blankumsee
  • Webb
Three considerations in shaking this out are 1) how many OL, TE, and pure ST are kept; 2) who is most likely to get through to the PS without getting poached, and 3) injuries and the Foxborough Flu stashing folks on PUP.

Let's assume that we'll keep fewer pure ST than Belichick has kept in the past. We know there will be 3 minimum, but will the staff dedicate more roster spots than that to guys who are focused teamers? I think just one, Schooler.

So let's assume 53 minus 4 teamers leaves 49. From there, 23 offense, 23 defense, and 3 "at large" spots. Some of how those 3 are allocated will depend on whether core ST guys play offense vs defense.

Of the base 23 offense, effective positional minimums:
2 QB
8 OL
5 WR
3 RB
2 TE
...leaving 3 flex offense spots, 3 at large spots. I think it's 9 OL, 6 WR, 4 RB. I want to say that another spot should go to Lampe as a FB, but he's basically 100% safe to make it to the practice squad, and I think they take advantage of that during initial cut downs.

As of right now, I think Chism makes this team if they don't think they can stash him. They won't lose him. So, assuming neither Bourne nor Boutte get traded, I think this might be the year they keep 7 WR on their 53. I don't like it philosophically, but with all the rookies and competitive UDRFAs a lot of the bubbly people are very stashable - guys like Larison, Dippre, Conley, and Bryant.

Thoughts? Where are my assumptions bad, and where am I full of shit?
Click to expand...

I'm making some minor changes to your template because, outside of Willams and Diggs, I think it's a wide open competition and previously held biases will lose out
to current performances on the field during camp. I also don't think there are any near locks. After Diggs and Williams, everyone is on the bubble. I also think Bourne could be traded if a guy with a rookie contract competes successfully for his job. The coaches would love this to happen, they always like rookies to beat out more expensive jag vets.

Absolute Locks (outside of health or behavioral risk):
Williams
Diggs

Everyone else is competing for a spot so they are all on a bubble.
New coaches hold no allegiance to the rest of the WRs.
They are all starting from scratch learning a new offense.
There's always the possibility the Pats acquire another WR to fill the WR2 role.

Near Locks:
Douglas
Hollins

High Bubble:
Bourne (only because he performed well under Josh McD previously)
Douglas

Low Bubble:
Hollins
Boutte
Chism
Polk
Baker

I'd like to see Dippre played at FB as well as TE. He's a great blocker and could make Lampe expendable if he's successful as a FB. That would save a roster spot.
 
Last edited:
Flagg the Wanderer said:
Okay, so we've got 12 guys. 6 holdovers, 6 new faces:

Holdovers:
  • Douglas
  • Bourne
  • Boutte
  • Baker
  • Polk
  • Jiles
New Guys:
  • Diggs
  • Hollins
  • Williams
  • Chism
  • Webb
  • Blankumsee
Let's break them out differently, in tiers of likelihood of making the roster/PS. Just as an exercise, I'll take a shot at putting them in order within the tiers:

Absolute Locks (outside of health or behavioral risk):
  • Williams
  • Diggs

Near Locks:
  • Douglas
  • Hollins

High Bubble:
  • Boutte
  • Bourne

Low Bubble:
  • Chism
  • Polk
  • Baker

Fat Chance:
  • Jiles
  • Blankumsee
  • Webb
Three considerations in shaking this out are 1) how many OL, TE, and pure ST are kept; 2) who is most likely to get through to the PS without getting poached, and 3) injuries and the Foxborough Flu stashing folks on PUP.

Let's assume that we'll keep fewer pure ST than Belichick has kept in the past. We know there will be 3 minimum, but will the staff dedicate more roster spots than that to guys who are focused teamers? I think just one, Schooler.

So let's assume 53 minus 4 teamers leaves 49. From there, 23 offense, 23 defense, and 3 "at large" spots. Some of how those 3 are allocated will depend on whether core ST guys play offense vs defense.

Of the base 23 offense, effective positional minimums:
2 QB
8 OL
5 WR
3 RB
2 TE
...leaving 3 flex offense spots, 3 at large spots. I think it's 9 OL, 6 WR, 4 RB. I want to say that another spot should go to Lampe as a FB, but he's basically 100% safe to make it to the practice squad, and I think they take advantage of that during initial cut downs.

As of right now, I think Chism makes this team if they don't think they can stash him. They won't lose him. So, assuming neither Bourne nor Boutte get traded, I think this might be the year they keep 7 WR on their 53. I don't like it philosophically, but with all the rookies and competitive UDRFAs a lot of the bubbly people are very stashable - guys like Larison, Dippre, Conley, and Bryant.

Thoughts? Where are my assumptions bad, and where am I full of shit?
Click to expand...
In my opinion, there are only two available spots in TC. Bourne, Polk, Boutte, and Baker will have to have a make-it-or-break camp. Baker and Boutte probably be the odd ones out. Since Bourne had his best season under Mcdaniels. Hollis, Douglas, Diggs, and Williams are assured of their spots. The Patriots may opt to carry seven players, and if Chism continues to impress, he may earn a spot solely for special teams.
 
Last edited:
king of kings said:
In my opinion, there are only two available spots in TC. Bourne, Polk, Boutte, and Baker will have to have a make-it-or-break camp. Baker and Boutte might be the odd ones out. Hollis, Douglas, Diggs, and Williams are assured of their spots. The Patriots may opt to carry seven players, and if Chism continues to impress, he may earn a spot solely for special teams.
Click to expand...
I agree, Douglas has had significant snaps in both of his years, has both speed and quickness which this team desperately needs, and McDaniels has openly praised him as a player.
Hollins had the most snaps for Bills WRs last year, was extremely efficient with his production, is the best blocker of the group, has special teams experience, his height alone adds a missing element to this shortish group, and he was hired by the new regime. I'd be shocked if either Douglas and Hollins doesn't make the 53.

I agree with Chevss that Bourne could be moved if one of the others is close, as moving his contract would save 12M in cap over the next 2 years.

My money is on Boutte, he had the most snaps of the Patriots WRs in 2024, and showed some flashes during a truly difficult year.

Oh, and yeah, Chism is a true dark horse to sneak in with the last spot .
 
Last edited:
DarnSyd said:
I agree, Douglas has had significant snaps in both of his years, has both speed and quickness which this team desperately needs, and McDaniels has openly praised him as a player.
Hollins had the most snaps for Bills WRs last year, was extremely efficient with his production, is the best blocker of the group, has special teams experience, and was hired by the new regime. I'd be shocked if either Douglas and Hollins doesn't make the 53.

I agree with Chevss that Bourne could be moved if the one of the others is close, as moving his contract would save 12M in cap over the next 2 years.

My money is on Boutte, he had the most snaps of the Patriots WRs in 2024, and showed some flashes during a truly difficult year.

Oh, and yeah, Chism is a true dark horse to sneak in with the last spot .
Click to expand...

I won't deny that last year Boutte was the most improved WR . Did we see his ceiling - flashes of agility - in games? His main competition will be Bourne for a spot. Who hasn't looked good since Noodle Arm's rookie year.
 
Last edited:
king of kings said:
I won't deny that last year Boutte was the most improved WR . Did we see his ceiling - flashes of agility - in games? His main competition will be Bourne for a spot. Who hasn't looked good since Noodle Arm's rookie year.
Click to expand...
Wow you are really taking a shot a Kendrick Bourne Who was working his way back from a more severe ACL MCL injury last season than Diggs is doing now. All reports have been that Bourne and Mays have good chemistry. He has looked very solid in the OTAs. Patriots get another clear sign Kendrick Bourne deserves a 2025 roster spot
 
I’ve never understood the Bourne love. He had 800 yards one season. He wasn’t lighting it up in San Francisco. It’s not like he was drafted by NE. We treat him like he started his career here. He played as many season as a 49er.
Would a team out there trade a 5th rounder for him?
I dunno….. you’d need an injury, and even then Gabe Davis is out there as a FA. So is Cooper, and probably a few more I'm
not thinking about.
I’d be stoked if the Pats got a 5th for him.
If I were say a Jets fan. They need depth at WR. I’d be pissed if they gave up a 5th for him. But I’m not a Jets fan.
 
Did someone mention Chism? This is the kind of route that he excels in. He's quick but he's not fast. In fact, he's pretty slow; 4.71 40. He's a pure Slot WR.
This is a route few CBs can cover...but if you time it to completion in the video, the route takes 6 seconds to completion. Not practical. His routes will have to be shorter.


View: https://x.com/PatriotRedZone/status/1932145334194430108
 
chevss454 said:
Did someone mention Chism? This is the kind of route that he excels in. He's quick but he's not fast. In fact, he's pretty slow; 4.71 40. He's a pure Slot WR.
This is a route few CBs can cover...but if you time it to completion in the video, the route takes 6 seconds to completion. Not practical. His routes will have to be shorter.


View: https://x.com/PatriotRedZone/status/1932145334194430108
Click to expand...

Wideout Efton Chism from Eastern Washington proved himself in both the Hula Bowl and then the Shrine Bowl. The nifty slot receiver posted some impressive numbers at his pro day, too. Those three-cone (3C) and short shuttle (SS) times are very good for an inside WR, more important than the slow 40-time:
40/10: 4.71/1.62
VJ: 34 1/2
BJ: 9'10"
SS: 4.06
3C: 6.77
 
This season I have no attachment to any particular player like I generally do. Other than hoping Diggs has a positive impact in the WR room and Williams panning out to his potential, I have no horse in this race.

Whomever the 5 or 6 best receivers the coaches choose I'll be content with.

Considering how bad it was last year, things look quite different this time around.
 
chevss454 said:
Did someone mention Chism? This is the kind of route that he excels in. He's quick but he's not fast. In fact, he's pretty slow; 4.71 40. He's a pure Slot WR.
This is a route few CBs can cover...but if you time it to completion in the video, the route takes 6 seconds to completion. Not practical. His routes will have to be shorter.


View: https://x.com/PatriotRedZone/status/1932145334194430108
Click to expand...


Too long for sure, but that throw was way late. Needs to hit him 1 step after he reverses. That times out to about 3.5 seconds. Still long but better.
 
chevss454 said:
Did someone mention Chism? This is the kind of route that he excels in. He's quick but he's not fast. In fact, he's pretty slow; 4.71 40. He's a pure Slot WR.
This is a route few CBs can cover...but if you time it to completion in the video, the route takes 6 seconds to completion. Not practical. His routes will have to be shorter.


View: https://x.com/PatriotRedZone/status/1932145334194430108
Click to expand...


Aloyouis said:
Too long for sure, but that throw was way late. Needs to hit him 1 step after he reverses. That times out to about 3.5 seconds. Still long but better.
Click to expand...
All the stutter stepping isn't practical, and isn't what you'd see on game day. For routes like that and whip routes, you're using the CBs hard break on the ball against them. You don't need the stutter, just the fast stop and turn.
 
Sean- son of Lifer said:
Wideout Efton Chism from Eastern Washington proved himself in both the Hula Bowl and then the Shrine Bowl. The nifty slot receiver posted some impressive numbers at his pro day, too. Those three-cone (3C) and short shuttle (SS) times are very good for an inside WR, more important than the slow 40-time:
40/10: 4.71/1.62
VJ: 34 1/2
BJ: 9'10"
SS: 4.06
3C: 6.77
Click to expand...

His quickness is well documented and often discussed here. I mentioned his 4.71 40 time because very few people here talk about his end speed and the coaches will definitely take that into consideration when drafting a roster. Other things to consider with him are his slow acceleration, that he'll face much tougher competition than he had in college and, so far, all his heroics at OTAs and Mini-camp are in shorts with no hitting. These things count. My point is we won't know a thing until the pads come on and the players are hitting.
I have hopes for him just like many here but he has plenty of shortcomings he must overcome before being considered a solid NFL WR.

SkiptoMyLou said:
This season I have no attachment to any particular player like I generally do. Other than hoping Diggs has a positive impact in the WR room and Williams panning out to his potential, I have no horse in this race.

Whomever the 5 or 6 best receivers the coaches choose I'll be content with.

Considering how bad it was last year, things look quite different this time around.
Click to expand...

We're on the same page. The coaches are new and have no special bias towards the players, outside of Diggs and Williams. They will all compete and their play will decide who stays and who goes. I like it this way.
Flagg the Wanderer said:
All the stutter stepping isn't practical, and isn't what you'd see on game day. For routes like that and whip routes, you're using the CBs hard break on the ball against them. You don't need the stutter, just the fast stop and turn.
Click to expand...

WR coaches teach 3 steps max for release from the LOS and for change of direction fakes. We've had WRs who used too many steps and they haven't worked out. Dobson is one, Harry is another and more recently Polk. Coaches teach efficiency of motion and time. An NFL CB will see all the stutter steps and soon won't pay any attention to them. 2.5 seconds is the scripted limit for the QB to throw the ball. Edelman had plenty of routes that allowed him to get open within 1 to 1.5 seconds, usually within 3 yds of the LOS. That will be Chism's bread and butter, other than broken plays. Chism isn't fast enough to stack a CB so CBs can lay off him a bit rather than pressing him. McD will keep his routes short to take advantage of his quickness.
 
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